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PRECIOUS Decade: Metals, Stocks & the Long View

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A PRECIOUS Decade? - Long View of the Challenging 2020's

Coming: A DECADE of Rising Commodities, and weak Stocks?

Silver & Gold have been one of the best investments of 2020 & deserve a strong focus.

David Hunter has a well articulated view of the Next Decade ... & Beyond

> HUNTER's Twitter > https://twitter.com/davehcontrarian?lang=en

UDN vs-SLV, GLD, SPY ... from Nov.2018: 11/2019: YTD: 10d / SLV: $22.94 , GLD: $178.64, SPY: 345.78

From 2020’s March Low, to the year's Aug High. Silver was >3X Gold’s rise ! /GLD: SLV: +etc: 10d: UK 5d: AGQe:
SLV Mar.L: $10.86 > Aug.H : $27.39 :  Silver = +152%
GLD L: $136.12, $1,451 > H: $194.45, 2,089 = +44.0%
SPY L: $216.42, $2,192 > H: $357.32, 3,588 = +63.7%

FsGE0rd.gif

Per David Hunter: "Secular Top in stocks this year" (maybe SPX-4,000).. and...

A melt-up Peal before year-end, and a Big Bust next year - with Eventually a 80% drop in Stocks.

This chart will be one to watch, possibly for years: Focus on "precious" metals, Silver & Gold

UDN vs-SLV, GLD, SPY ... from Nov.2018: 11/2019: YTD: 10d / Silver: 24.67, SLV: 22.94 = r107.5% / Gold: $1.905, GLD: 178.64 = r10.66
UDN: 21.17. with DXY@92.75, Eur@$1.186 / SPX: 3,465, SPY: 345.78 = r10.02

Gr9qC7i.gif

STOCKS; DEFLATIONARY BUST in 2021, after a melt-up?   

So says Cyclical analyst David Hunter... David Hunter:

1970s Style Inflation Will Set Gold on Fire >

 

The Dollar & the Fed are a big part of this story.  USD has been weak in 2020, especially since the late March peak at 103

DXY - trade-weighted Dollar ... All: 5yr: 2yr: 2018: 2019: YTD: 10d / DXY: $92.75 > DH expects a Low at 85.

UBJFE1E.gif

UDN - US Dollar Bear Fund...All: 5yr: 2yr: 2018: 2019: YTD / UDN: 21.17

DBLwyPy.gif

 

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Looking Back - David Hunter has had it mostly correct

Jcs41CJ.png

I like Hunter's honesty  (about under-estimating the March drop) & his refreshing Long term perspective

THE BOOM after the 2021-24 Bust will be driven by Infrastructure investments, industrialization & rising commodities

May 2020 Interview:  (click on Link below)

A melt-up to SPX-4,000 "because of the massive money printing" leading to a secular Top.

"The Second part of the Bust will come after the melt-up". (may be done by Labor day)

"Fed balance sheet to go to $20 -30 Trillion"

Then, the Fed loses everyone's confidence and we will have many years of trouble

Nathaniel E. Baker 0:36
David Hunter, Chief macro strategist at contrarian macro advisors. You were on the show last summer in August if memory serves, and you told listeners about your idea that there would be a dramatic melt up that would be caused by central bank liquidity, injections and other measures. And anybody who’s been paying attention to markets in the last couple of weeks, could reasonably point out that this is exactly what’s happened here with the Fed, and other central banks, mainly the Fed, stepping in to combat the coronavirus impact, and unleashing all kinds of liquidity. So, I guess that would be the first question for you is where we stand with this. And if this is indeed the start of this melt up?

David Hunter 1:37
Sure. Yeah, I think this is definitely the start of what I think will eventually become a parabolic melt up into a secular top. And in all honesty, when we talked last, I guess, late August, I didn’t anticipate the coronavirus by any means and didn’t anticipate that we’d get down under 2200 on the S&P, I thought we might in fact in January, February, March. I was talking about January, February, early March, I was talking about a correction back to 3000, maybe 2900. But I certainly didn’t see the the cascade that we we got. So, you know, the coronavirus certainly affected the path. But my target of 4000 plus on the S&P, which I had last summer is still my target today. We had another leg down. It took us down to a deeper bottom. But I think it didn’t change the fact that we are going to have this final melt up into a secular top, a top that I expect to be the high watermark for decades to come.

> source: https://contrarianpod.com/tag/dhunter/

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FOOD PRICES Set to Rise too?... Started already probably

Sugar & DBA, vs Coffee & Cocoa ... 2018: 2019: 2020: YTD / DBA: x, Sugar: x, Coffee: x, Cocoa: x vs. SLV: xx

DZLrJHe.gif

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GOLD is boring... by comparsion with SLV /Silver

And SLV has done a better job of giving early warnings of shifts from "risk off" to "risk on" periods. and vice-versa

Here's SPY vs- SLV and GLD... YTD: 10d: $345, $22.94, $178

tBfbtro.gif

==

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SILVER TARGETS: 

Hunter has: "Rally to $32, and then a pullback to $22... Before a huge rally to $200 or something"

You can see this in the SLV charts, I think

SLV /Silver... All-data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: $22.94

8PtdKH4.gif

In the chart above, SLV has resistance at about $30, and Silver should be 107.5% x that = $32.25 High

In the Bust which may follow, there should be support at about $21, and x 107.5% = $22.58 Retracement Low

Silver - 5 years : Last: $24.67 Silver

jB8usHU.png

SIL / Silver Stock index ... All / Last: $45.20

xmGbjxV.gif

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Silver Close-Up & Gold-toSilver Ratio / SLV: $22.61, -1.44%, AGQ: $45.00, -3.00%

GLD: $178.55, -0.05%, SPY: 339.38 , -1.85% (DXY: 92.96, -0.09% / UDN: 21.10 -0.33%)

From 2020’s March Low, to the year's Aug High. Silver was >3X Gold’s rise ! /charts: SLV: +etc: 10d:

B9oSeQU.gif

SLV: +etc: 10d:

X8gXItg.gif

GLD-to-SLV ratio: $178.55 /$22.61 = r- 7.90 / GvsS: Ytd: 10d: / Gold-to-Silver : $1,906 /$24.42 = r-78.04 = r10.67/ 108.0%

rXbrxcW.png

SILVER since Aug. 2019: $22.61

d1Dw2gW.png

 

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Other Precious Metals... Platinum, Palladium

SPPP-etc ... update: w/GLD: PPLT: etfs:

VSbC2c4.gif

PPLT/ Platinum... All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: 10d/ Last: $80.03, yrL: 55.00, yrH: 96.93 (diff: 41.93, 25.03, xx%)

C5H8v6c.gif

AGQ / ProShares Ultra Silver (2x Bull)... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yrW: 6mo: 10d/ Last: $41.42, yrL: 12.66, yrH: 71.60

arfShki.gif

AGQ (2x Bull)... All:

c4hN3pc.gif

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> HUNTER's Twitter > https://twitter.com/davehcontrarian?lang=en

 
Nov 16 : USO, XLEAs I have been saying, oil is emerging from consolidation & heading higher. We should see WTI at $50-$55 in the next couple of months. Energy stocks will be big beneficiaries & should outperform in the melt-up.

y2J7Uoq.gif

Nov 12 : SLV-etc: GLD:  The gold & silver sell-off of the past week is likely ending & the metals are poised to resume their big rallies into year-end. Gold to $2300-$2500 & silver to $35-$36 with silver likely heading even higher than that.Miner targets remain GDX $55,GDXJ $100,SIL $75 & SILJ $30.

2eMvRWl.gif

Nov 11 :  WTI: 3yr: YTD:  Ten days ago oil was at $34 down from $44 & everybody was bearish but me.I was still forecasting $50-$55.It's now back to 42 & on its way.Silver & gold are down sharply the past few days & lots of people are now skeptical & turning bearish. My bullish forecast remains unchanged.

JrsmkJU.gif

Nov 5th : GDX: 3yr: Ytd : Gold & silver had big runs from March to August & then consolidated those gains over the past 3 months.Both are emerging from that consolidation & poised for big runs. Gold to $2300-$2500 & silver $35-$36 before year-end. GDX to $55, GDXJ to $100, SIL to $75,SILJ to $30.Away we go.

mnZkcYS.gif

OVERALL:  "I think we will see a $2 trillion relief package no matter who is declared the winner & next year we will see far more fiscal & monetary expansion than anyone currently expects, regardless of who is president. The global bust & financial crisis will require a massive response."

Treasury bond correction probably about half way to completion.30yr yield can rise to 2% & 10yr yield to 1.20%-1.40% during the stock market melt-up.Following this correction we will see rates fall to their final lows during next yr's deflationary bust with 10yr to 0% & 30yr 1/2%

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> HUNTER's Twitter #2> https://twitter.com/davehcontrarian?lang=en

 
Nov 17 : IWM: 3yr: Ytd: The Russell 2000 small cap index is at new highs & energy, financial & industrial stocks are all beginning to outperform.These are very bullish signs.This mkt has lots of upside just ahead.Ignore the bearish naysayers.They're the same voices who've doubted this rally since March.

0IJ9IFp.gif

DXY: 3yr: Ytd: The dollar looks ready to head much lower. The euro, GBP, yen, CAD, AUD & Peso all poised to head significantly higher. Fun times in FX land.

9Mw2N3E.gif

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DEC.PEAK, followed by a TWO YEAR CRASH into late 2023, that's what Harry Dent sees for US stocks

(Could be matched by similar action in the Phl Property market, but for different reasons.):

Harry Dent: Stocks to crash 40% by April and won't rebound for decades, here's why

> https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-11-25/Harry-Dent-Stocks-to-crash-40-by-April-and-won-t-rebound-for-decades-here-s-why.html

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Dollar Still falling.  Gold, Silver to make sharp Rally?
11.23
USD continues its downward move toward 85.Euro poised for higher as is GBP,Yen,CAD & AUD.Oil is headed to $50 & likely $55.Gold & silver consolidations continue but both are poised for steep rallies with gold headed for $2500 & silver $35 & perhaps higher.Stock mkt melt-up ahead.
 
DXY : 91.93, yrL: 91.75
dEQUMLL.gif
 
SLV: 21.72, yrH: 27.38, -xx% lower
sGeuQnc.gif
 
Q: $35 Silver?  By when? 
"Will happen fast. Might be there in a month. Might take six weeks or two months. It will emerge from this consolidation in a steep & swift fashion."

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Gold's Positive Feedback cycle has been "taking a breather" - that was inevitable after a record run-up /

Pierre Lassonde's Bold Call: Gold/Dow Ratio to Collapse 1:1, New Jan. Highs for Gold   >

Considered one of the most esteemed voices in the sector, gold super legend Pierre Lassonde predicts that the Dow Jones to gold ratio will retrace to 1:1, which it has historically done in the past. Should that happen, he tells our Daniela Cambone, the gold price could climb to $15,000–$20,000 an ounce. The Chair Emeritus for Franco-Nevada also addresses the volatility gold has been experiencing. "It's the same story," nothing has changed, he remarks, noting the metal could see higher highs as soon as January 2021.

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STOCK. "MELT-UP UNDERWAY"  says David Hunter

SPY : 3yr: YTD: 10d ... Last: 362.66, yrH: 364.38

xWnJ1ua.gif

I keep hearing pundits talking about the likelihood & need for a big correction before the market moves higher.We already had the correction with the low at the end of Sept & a retest a month later.The market is breaking out & the melt-up beginning.Rally will be steep & stunning.
 
/ 2 /
I may be the last person on Wall Street who still believes we will see a fiscal relief package passed this yr.Always the contrarian,but even Congress can't be so blind & heartless as to ignore the 20 million people unemployed & the millions of small businesses closing their doors
 
I have been saying for the past month or two that energy, industrials & financials would have large catch-up rallies in this run to the top. Well they have & it will continue. These three groups are at the top of the performance parade this month.
 
XLF : 28.56, yrH: 31.38
npyzZsC.gif

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What's Cheap now?   Gold & Gold stocks (silver too)

GLD vs.... 4yr: YTD / Last: $169.51/142.80, +18.7%, GDXJ: $49.13/42.26, +16.2%
GDX: $34.04/ 29.28= +16.3%, SLV: $21.72/ 16.68= +30.2%, AGQ: $40.58/ 31.65= +28.2%

v00m1cX.gif

Rick Rule agrees / Gold Stocks on Sale with Rick Rule

/ 2 /

Grandich’s 4 picks: AMX-C$3.00, #1: VSR-C$1.25, (img), #2: SUP-C$0.95, RDS-C$0.32 (all four look expensive to me)

Peter Grandich: We Need this Washout for Gold to Go Higher

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HUNTER on Gold ... & Silver

The dollar & the metals have been in consolidation for four months after big moves from March to August. Those consolidations are ending & big moves lay just ahead. USD is headed sharply lower to 85 while gold & silver are headed sharply higher. Gold to $2500 & silver to $35+.
/ 2 /
I know the sell-off in the precious metals is spooking investors. As always happens in these kind of panic sell-offs,I'm seeing lots of calls for lower,in some cases sharply lower.I don't think so. In fact,I think this sell-off increases the odds silver goes beyond $35 to $45-$50
 
(my own charts & comments)
UJOyNrS.png
 
The big issue right now in owning Gold mining shares has been the weak Gold price.:
Gold closed at $1,781, now 13.9% below its peak at $2,069.
GDXJ closed at $50.03 which is 24.1% under the August 2020 high of $65.95..
Junior miner and exploration stocks have been even more volatile.
GCM.t, Gran Colombian Gold my largest holding is down from $8.06, to C$6.04, a 25% drop.
WM.t, Wallbridge Mng., which I bought yesterday was at C$0.76, down 44% from its 2020 high of $1.35.
A further issue this time of year can be tax-oriented selling which can push mining prices down between
Thanksgiving and Christmas, as people take losses, to shelter their gains,  When the selling eases,
often in the new year, their can be sharp rallies, as buyers snap of cheap shares. Maybe the tax loss selling
season will end early in the volatile year of 2020.
 
Fortunately, Gold and gold shares may have already begun a reversal back upwards.  It could be sharp.
The Low was Monday at $1,767.  AND as I edit this on Tuesday, Gold is back to $1800.
 

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David Hunter @DaveHcontrarian
One market analyst after another is coming out warning of a market sell-off & saying the market is very overbought & sentiment at a bullish extreme.These analysts have been skeptical of this market all the way up & they remain so.Short pullbacks yes but melt-up is just beginning.  

Melt-Up In the Works: Parobolic Moves Ahead – David Hunter >

SPY vs. GLD, SLV ... YTD: 10d:

CAKj9qf.gif

SPY vs. GLD, AGQ ... from Dec.2017 :

UYCnFCY.gif

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David Hunter - Gold Investors Should Avoid Making This Mistake

This guy, DAVID HUNTER, speaks great sense imho.  He still Bullish now, but will turn Very Bearish soon, he says.  "Stocks could drop as much as 80% in a few months..  But this is a BUST coming, not the end of the World... After 2022-23 or so, we will see a 6-7 year Bull market = An industrial cycle"  David Hunter - Gold Investors Should Avoid Making This Mistake >

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BUY BONDS! 

TLT / Long T-Bond chart ... YTD: +etc: 10d  +etc/ $156.67 vs. GLD: $175.65, LTPZ: $87.85 (LT-vs-T😞

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+etc: 10d  +etc/ $156.67 vs. GLD: $175.65, LTPZ: $87.85

F7BCjt2.gif

Interesting analysis with charts here. "The market is absorbing all the selling... And we have the biggest Bond SHORT position in history" 

Bonds Indicate a Massive Rally and Collapse in Yields is Coming!  >

If he is right that we are set for a bond rally, then LTPZ & Gold should rally too, I reckon /

TLT to-GLD Ratio : 88.2%

d2orjld.png

GLD to-LTPZ Ratio : 21.4x

9s0K7XH.png

End Jan. $155c : $3.45 - 3.65: mid-$3.55.  @ $156.67, IV: $1.67, TV: $1.88 (1.20%)

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GOLD:  Where will the peak be (early Q2?) & where is Gold going in 2021?

Using candlesticks & E-waves - Great charts, details & explanations here

Gold price to breach new all-time highs by Q2, 2021 – Gary Wagner live interview

==

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Real Conversations: The New Great Depression w/ Jim Rickards

Discussion about jim rickard's newest book.

"Covid will soon be the third worst pandemic/plague going back to the Black Death

LOCKDOWN's have killed more people than they have saved... I blame Fauci, an over the hill bureaucratic immunologist.

It will take decades to fully recover"

GLD vs. TLT ... update: $171.13 vs. $151.82 : Ratio-112.7%

0vfMLBG.gif

"GOLD is falling with rising interest rates... and there may be another 2-3 months to go, before Gold starts rising from likely support at $1775"

Ratio of Gold / GLD = 10.4, so $1775 / 10.67 = GLD: $166.4, on/near 252d MA (which is -3% below $171.13 close)

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Update, 10d / Over the last 10 days:  TLT is -3%. GLD is -6%. GDX is -10%

keqQVdo.gif

GDX to TLT ratio

xx

UDN vs-SLV, GLD, SPY ... from Nov.2018: 11/2019: YTD: 10d / SLV: $22.94 , GLD: $178.64, SPY: 345.78

En05Hvo.gif

Hedge funds aggressively exit their bullish gold bets as U.S. dollar, bond yields rise

Kitco News) - Hedge funds and gold investors have significantly cut back on their bullish gold exposure as the precious metal continues to be weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising bond yields, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

CFTC disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending Jan. 12 showed money managers decreased their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 36,039 contracts to 131,057. At the same time, short positions increased by 2,296 contracts to 52,823.

"Gold saw a dramatic reduction in net longs after speculators were spooked by the surge in ten-year bond yields above 1% and a stronger dollar," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Gold's net length now stands at 78,234 contracts, a drop of more than 36% from the previous week. Bullish best in gold have dropped to their lowest level since May 2019, according to the report.

The significant drop in speculative interest dragged gold prices sharply lower below $1,850 an ounce during the survey period...

> https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-01-18/Hedge-funds-aggressively-exit-their-bullish-gold-bets-as-U-S-dollar-bond-yields-rise.html

 

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BIG RISK of Depression under Biden - what will the Fed & Treasury do to steer away from it?

End of the Road: How Money Became Worthless | Financial Crisis | ENDEVR Documentary

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJd6RKsY5H4

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THE DEBATE: xx

>

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2020 was a really excellent year for my trading

And so was 2019...

Very possibly, I will spend more time on (profitable!) trading activities in 2021,

rather than worrying about the US political situation, which likes scary now in Jan. 2021, as i write this.

Will censorship & oppression become worse, or ease?

So long as I am making good trading, perhaps I should not worry too much.  Enjoy Life

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Gold stock charts as a TIMING device... explained here

GDX, Gold stocks vs. TLT ... since 1/2010: 1/2016: 1/2018: 1/2020: 10d/

GDX: $34.78 / TLT: 147.11, Ratio: 23.6%, GLD: 170.69 (ratio to tlt: 116.0%), SPY: $392.64

xx

Chart from 4:13 minutes into this presentation

eFVSGfU.png

VIDEO: Steven Van Metre: GDX Weakness Signaling Market Crash

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