PRECIOUS Decade: Metals, Stocks & the Long View

[drbubb]

"The melt-up is underway. Gold & silver poised for some catch-up.

My 2021 targets are gold $2500, silver $45-$50, GDX $60, GDXJ $100, SIL $75 & SILJ $35. Big upside ahead.", says David Hunter

> https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian : DanPopescu:  MacroAlf: Kobeissi:

Updated: Gold:$1980, GLD:$184 (/10.76), UGL:$64, AGQ:$27, SLV:$21, GDX:$30.6 ETC:

STOCKS: BULLISH Set-up for 2023. update: SPX: 3,999 (12 mo: 3,492-4,665)

Bullish set-up now for US stocks: Possible Reverse Head-and-Shoulders, with downtrend about to break.  Bearish sentiment, with BIG CASH on the sidelines

DASHBOARD

My 2021 targets are gold $2500, silver $45-$50, GDX $60, GDXJ $100, SIL $75 & SILJ $35. Big upside ahead."

> https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian : DanPopescu :

GDX ... w/882d ma (w/500d ma😞 Last: $32.65, +83.8% upside?/ x124%= GDXJ: $40.40, +148% upside

David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian .. Jul 13

As I hinted at last week,I have raised my equity targets. My new targets are S&P 5000, DJIA 40,000 & Nasdaq 18,000. My target for RUT remains unchanged at 2900. The final melt-up run into the secular top is underway & should steepen in the weeks ahead. This bull is not done yet.

SPX . w/882d ma (w/500d ma) : Last: $3,999, +25.0% upside?  / Nasdaq-etc: $11,079, +62.5% upside

UDN vs-SLV, GLD, SPY: w/XLE. from 11/2019: YTD: 10d / SLV: $23.32 , GLD:157.49, SPY:381.72, XLE:53.09 @3.8.2021

SLV, GLD, SPY : w/XLE... from 11/2019: shs: YTD: 10d/ SLV: $24.33 , GLD:171.04, SPY:436.24, XLE:50.81 @7.14.2021

2020: From the March Low, to the 2020's High. Silver was >3X Gold’s rise ! /GLD: SLV: +etc: 10d: UK 5d: AGQe:
SLV Mar.L: $10.86> Aug.H: $27.39: Silver= +152%  / Target: Slv: $30,00, silver: $35-40
GLD L: 136.12, $1,451 > H: 194.45, 2,089 =  +44.0% / Target: $240?, $2,500?
SPY L: 216.42, $2,192 > H: 394.17, 3,950 =  +80.2% / Target; 4,600
XLE Mar.Low: $ 22.88 > H: $53.75, 3.9.21= +135% > Yr.H: Mar.9th, Target: $55

CRB-XLE: 1/'13: 4.12.13: 1/'18: 10/'19: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr / CRB-$24.52 :

XLE-$88.95 (3.63x), GDX-$32.65 (133%)

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[drbubb]

Insider Paper @InsiderPaper ..  12hr Ago

JUST IN - For the first time, London FTSE 100 index breaks through 8,000 points

 

UK:UKX / 2020: Last: 7.997.83 +43.98, + 0.55%.  Day-H: 8,003.65

2000 :

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IWM / Russell-2000 versus TLT/ Bonds ... 2000: 2020: 1000 / 100 = R-10.0x

x

PSEI ... 2000:

[drbubb]

TYX / US 30 Year Bond rates. ... 3yr: 1yr / Last: 39.42 = 3.942%, Range: 20.70 to 44.25

TNX / US Ten Year Note rates . 10yr; 3yrL: 1yr: 10d: Last: 38.43 > 3.843%  Range: 16.82 to 43.33

10yr;

Q: HAVE RATES PEAKED?

VIBER CHAT - in answer to a Question about whether ST rates have peaked, I wrote:

"Short term rates in the US and Phl, are still under upwards pressure.  I think that upwards pressure may ease within the next month or so.  ( My view may be wrong, of course, but I am now betting/ investing on the notion that LT rates in the US have already peaked...  back in Oct.2022, when. 30 yr rates hit. 4.36%,  and the 10yr Note hit. 4.425%".  ...   

 Look at the chart above (TYX- is 10x the 30 yr Bond rate, and TNX - is 10x the 10 year Note rate.).

>  Scroll down for charts and Historical datas > PHL REIT thread, pg2 :

[drbubb]

UPDATE : BACK to 1.13.23 level...  MELT-UP DO or DIE?

#2, latest: 3.09.23

STOCKS: "BULLISH Set-up for 2023," I said . update: 3,999 > 3,997 (Range: 3,492- 4,665)

TLT / Bonds ... since 2022: 10d -- From $100, Rates will likely determine the next move in Stocks

[drbubb]

HK GOLD, hk2840, still looking good, at HK$1,335 (= $1830 /10.78= 169.8 x7.85)

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[drbubb]

SPX - Last: 3,918. I can still make this Bullish count... Alternative Case

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[drbubb]

CRB-XLE: 1/'13: 4.12.13: 1/'18: 10/'19: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr / CRB-$24.52 :

XLE-$88.95 (3.63x), GDX-$32.65 (133%)

[drbubb]

INSANE RISK... in the time Mismatches

As an ex-banker (Chase, Swiss Bank),  you should know that it is considered a Massive SIN ( and very risky) to have mismatched maturities on the scale the scale that SVB did.  Very risky, and the regulators should have seen that months ago and been "all over" SVB for the last 6-9 months.  If they were not ON WATCH, then someone screwed up big time.  But that would not surprise me, since the failed banks seem to have been more interested in D-I-E issues, than being prudent bankers.  It seems to me that some sort of extreme Karma episode is being played out.   Please keep this all in mind when listening...

SPECIAL REPORT: Silicon Valley Bank - How Worried Should We Be? | Joseph Wang, Former Fed Insider .

GOLD stocks, and High dividend stocks like REIT stocks have the potential to perform well, even if general indices fall.  But they may need lower Bond yields (blue line above)to ignite the rallies.

XLE (80.95, 45%) vs. SPY($385,x216%) SLV($20, 11%) GLD($178,100%).. 10/'19:

[drbubb]

IS SILVER TOO CHEAP??

Updated: Gold:$1980, GLD:$184 (/10.76), UGL:$64, AGQ:$27, SLV:$21, GDX:$30.6

[drbubb]

"... Let me reiterate my perspective as to why I think we are due for a very long-term bear market. And, I will quote what I wrote from one of my prior articles," Avi Gilburt

100+ year chart of the S&P500:

LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE.  thnx. ElliottWave Trader... 

I want to begin with a market call made back in 1941. In 1941, with world War II raging around him, Ralph Nelson Elliott penned the following market prognostication:

"[1941] should mark the final correction of the 13 year pattern of defeatism. This termination will also mark the beginning of a new Supercycle. . ., comparable in many respects with the long [advance] from 1857 to 1929. [This] Supercycle is not expected to culminate until about 2012."

For those of you that do not understand this quote, Elliott was predicting the start of a 70-year bull market in the face of World War II raging around him. Quite an amazing prediction, even if he was off by a decade. Still, if we do top out in the coming several years, he would be approximately 88% accurate in his prognostication. I have personally never seen a market prognostication in my lifetime that has been anywhere near as amazing as Elliott's back in 1941. And, again, consider the time in which he made this prediction, and how silly it must have sounded at the time.      

  >.  https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2023-03-21/Avi-Gilburt-A-bear-market-could-take-much-longer-than-you-expect.html

[drbubb]

Gilburt, expects a new High (SPX-5,000?)... and then a Massive ABC Pull back (to maybe SPX-1600 or 2200). 

SPX / S&P500- from 2000 : Last: 3,971 (Range: YrL: 3,491.58 - YrHL: 4,637.30)

Here's another guy, David Hunter who expects something similar

"the Volatility that I am talking about, is because of where we are in the Super Cycle."

David Hunter: The Epic Last Hurrah for the Markets

REACTION: 

jefftri. 2 days ago

I always pay extra special attention to the folks like David Hunter who have been around the block long enough to know whats going on. Agree with his "bust " prediction but still have a tough time swallowing his "melt up" forecast of S&P over 5000 as an opening act over the next 3-6 months.

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[drbubb]

A MELT-UP SCENARIO may be more likely in Gold & Gold stocks than general indices

UGL: (2x Gold), AGQ (2x Silver) & Gold stock indices: $63.5, $29, $31.5, $38

Watch GDX ($31.55) for an emerging breakout: 4Yr: 2Yr: 2022: 1Yr: 10d:

A MELT-UP, if we see one, with likely be preceded by a jump in TLT, >200d MA

Ed Dowd may be right about crashing banks, and a Fed panic, but at the early stages of rates easing, like the first few months, we may see a brief melt-up in stocks.  Then, the deluge?

Only 6 U.S. banks will be left by 2025 paving way for CBDC - Ed Dowd

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[drbubb]

STOCK MELT-UP AHEAD?  

If we are going to see a Melt-up in stocks, it begins NOW!  But No Gtee!

Old: 3/30/23

If this forecast is wrong, we will likely know very soon

Later, AFTER Friday Close:

PSEI was the anomaly, in a strong day for stock indices.

SPY : 409.39 +5.69, +1.41%

Because of LOW VIX (17%), I need to sound a Bear Warning on SPY ($414) / Stocks, which are also at a Resistance level" - posted morning after 4/17 close.

VOLATILITY:  SPX vs. FAZ, TZA... w/VIX :  TvF:2: SxS: B3: SpT:

[drbubb]

GLCC as bellwether . Last: $28.26. (12 mo: 19.74 to 30.14 )

UPDATE

[drbubb]

These two guys have great Insight from their charts.  I always enjoy their commentary

Kevin Wadsworth & Patrick Karim:

Breakouts on the Charts Leading to Larger Moves for Gold and Silver

 

[drbubb]

MELT-up Update: vs'22 Low:

SPY: 418.62 /348.11 +20.2%, QQQ: 336.51 /254.26 +32.3%, TLT: 101.10 /91.85: +10.1% :5.19

Minor melt-up in Stocks (so far), with NO Help (in 2022) from TLT/ Bonds

MELT-UP seen best in Ratio...

The fall in bonds is news driven. Lower inflation might have helped bonds but the debt ceiling impass has overwhelmed that positive news.  Deadline is now tight for debt ceiling talks. The outcome could and maybe  should be positive for bonds. But fears persist that we will see an ugly standoff for a while longer

"Not pay its Bills"?
"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US is unlikely to reach mid-June and still be able to pay its bills, underscoring the urgency of the White House reaching a deal with Republicans to raise the debt limit. "          //.          There is a plan on the table.  Biden and the Dems should accept it.  If not, focus on paying interest and maturing debt.  There is plenty of Tax income for that, over 20% of US GDP.   Dems need to cut some of the crazy over-spending, and maybe stop illegally handing Money to Ukraine.  Discipline is good for the US credit rating in the long run, whatever the slow-speaking grandmother says.

[drbubb]

QQQ vs. SPY :

Is this a Melt-up Yet?
=====
Index.  FY’22  : 6.2.23 :  change
QQQ : 266.28: 354.65: + 33.2%
SPY. : 382.43:  427.92: + 11.9 %
VIX.  :  21.67 :   14.60. :  - 32.6%
PSEI :  6,566 :   6,512 :  - 0.83%
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My own small PHL portfolio is 16% ahead of PSEI this year.
There were many warnings on various Viber chats in early 2023,
That stocks were likely to crash in 2023. I warned in xx that we
Could see a melt-up instead, staying open to the views of the
Handful of Bulls like David Hunter,
Please see my comments about a possible Melt-up on my website
> GEI, Jan.15th - at the TOP of this page...

WILL WE AVOID A RECESSION?  I don't think so.  

In fact the coming slowdown may be very severe, but in the early stages, it may be seen as bullish as the slowdown brings down inflation and rates. 

ROSENBERG:  "Oil prices are down almost 50%. That feeds into everything... A recession is no longer priced into Stock prices... If there is a secular bull market brewing, it is in Japan."

David Rosenberg: Don't Believe The Hype! This Economy Is A Dead Man Walking.  

 

[drbubb]

COMMENTS from a Viber chat.

+37.5% Gain in QQQ this year!

Here is the Actual Performance of various indices during 2023

Update, changes this year
Index: YE’22 : Jul.7th :  Chg.  :  Pct .  :
SPY  : 382.43: 438.55:  56.12: +14.7%
QQQ : 266.28: 366.24:  99.96: +37.5%
TLT.  : $99.56:  $99.08: -0.48: -0.49%
GLD  : 169.64:  178.64:  +9.00: +5.31%
BTC. : 16.50k:  30.40k: +13.9k +84.2%
====

Anyone who is curious about my comments over this year, can check a thread on my GEI website, that I update from Time-to-time.  Here’s a comment from early 2023.

“STOCKS: BULLISH Set-up for 2023. update: SPX: 3,999 (12 mo: 3,492-4,665) Bullish set-up now for US stocks: Possible Reverse Head-and-Shoulders, with downtrend about to break.  Bearish sentiment, with BIG CASH on the sidelines ”
> More:  (see above)

2 /

( Compare my comments and track record with that of the Perma-Bears.  Haha.  Seems like every time we get a drop of a few points, the CRASH is about to begin. I expect that some reading of the Elliott Theory may be behind that.  I read Prechter's books, corresponded with him by mail a few times. And even met him/. I respect his thinking and writing.  But I found that reading his Monthly newsletter was not improving my trading results. So I stopped taking it.  Perhaps others can get more value out of it than I was able to.)

[drbubb]

QQQ-etc. Update: SPY: 438.55, QQQ: 366.24, TLT:  $99.08:

QQQ and SPY too, may have run into important resistance. 

With TLT so weak - and I have been wrong about bonds this year, expecting a rally, not a sideways  move - then it is hard for me to believe stocks can rally more now, without some Help from Bonds, ie a drop in long term rates.  Perhaps rates will fall from here, and we will get Hunter's final "Melt-up" in stocks.  Or rates will fall further and the Stock Crash awaited by some will come now.

[drbubb]

RATIO at 3.7 also suggests we are at/near important Resistance

QQQ: 366.24 / TLT:  $99.08: R- 3.696

[drbubb]

SOFT-LANDING SCENARIO:  (as unlikely as this seemed, it is not impossible.)

Gold, silver and oil will skyrocket if U.S. economy pulls off a soft landing - Jim Wyckoff.    Wyckoff joined reporter Ernest Hoffman to look at the potential impact of a strengthening U.S. economy on gold, silver, oil, and other key commodities. He said that it appears increasingly likely that the U.S. economy will emerge from two years of high inflation and high interest rates without sustaining any serious damage.

“This has been the most broadly-forecast economic recession that's never happened,” he said. “Even if there is a mild recession, all it's going to be is mild.” 

> https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-07-17/Gold-silver-and-oil-will-skyrocket-if-U-S-economy-pulls-off-a-soft-landing-Jim-Wyckoff.html.

[drbubb]

GOLD's UPWARD JOURNEY? ... "Inflation is not cured at all."

Francis Hunt: Gold - The Beginning of the Journey to $2905. 

HK Gold chart added on 8.23

[drbubb]

Charting the STOCK SELLOFF: a Link to Interest Rates. 

A Bounce or Bigger Rally may be at Hand

Stock Selloff has CAUSES... Long term rates. TYX (44.10). Have had a big run in the last month.  From about 3.84% to 4.41%.  The Fitch downgrade did not help, and there has been big new Supply of TBonds coming from expanding Treasury Debt, thanks to those loony spending programs from the Biden regime.

Nasdaq may Rally from here, it TLT is bouncing from a retest of the LOW near 92.

PSEI has dropped as US rates rose / US Bonds slid.  It has pushed through the support level I identified near 6200, Closing just 0.32% under that, at 6,180, -32.76, -0.53%, in a last second selloff.  (Could THIS be the Low?? Maybe watch US bonds to see what clues they give today and beyond.)

[drbubb]

UPDATE on TLT vs. Stocks

TLT / Bonds could have made an important Low, and we might get a quick rally to new highs in QQQ, disappointing some of my "Perma-bear" friends who were telling us in recent days to get set for a crash.  (We might get a crash starting this year, but perhaps not just yet.)

Update, changes this year
Index: YE’22 : Jul.7th :  Aug23:  Chg.  :  Pct .  :
SPY  : 382.43: 438.55:  400.00: 00.00: +14.7%
QQQ : 266.28: 366.24:  300.00: 00.00: +37.5%
PSEI : 16.50k:  30.40k:    6,180.: +000.: +0.00%
TLT.  : $99.56:  $99.08: $90.00: -0.00: -0.49%
GLD  : 169.64:  178.64:  000.00: +9.00: +5.31%
BTC. : 16.50k:  30.40k:  00.00k: +13.9k +84.2%
====

[drbubb]

SELLING WINDOW AHEAD?   QQQ Below

 I have been waiting for this Seasonal opportiniity.  At the beginning of 2023 I said:  "STOCKS: BULLISH Set-up for 2023.." (SPX: 3,999, now 12.7% higher at 4,508. Ytd, QQQ is up 42.1% from 266 to 378.) Along the way, I resisted - rightly, it turns out - the temptation to get Bearish.  Because I thought stocks could hold uo until late AUG.  We are now in the Timeframe where it could make sense to Sell.  Ideally, the QQQ might continue to Rally to 400 or so.  Current level is 378. So that would be perhaps 6% higher.  It may not get that far, so STAY ALERT NOW.  (Given that PSEI is well off its 2023 high of 7,138, Fri's close of 6,181 was -13.5% off that level.  It may makes sense to hedge PSEI with QQQ or SPY puts since the downside in the US indices appears much bigger in a global stock market slide, if we see that.)

- from a post on my Viber market chat, 9.1.2023