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Global Mkts - What's Good, what's dangerous

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Global Mkts - What's Good, what's dangerous

( See also: MARKETS section:  PHL section : PSEI thread )

I have noticed a decent correlation between UK's FTSE and the Philippines PSEI

(at least over this period)

PSEI vs FTSE : since 2020: 2019: 2018: 2016: 10d/ Last: 6,613 -xx%, 6,407, since YE'2020

PWJS0L5.gif

This chart adds on the Property bellwethers:

ALI (AyalaLand) & BDEV (Barratt Dev'l)... since: 2000: 2005: 2010: 2015: 2018: 2019: 2020: 10d / : P40,00, 200.00

ncuFLYi.gif

But longer term, going back to 2010, the correlation breaks down... since 2000: 2005, 2010, 2015 :

z6iRaxz.gif

PSEI has massively outperformed the weak FTSE index in the long term.

Yet turns came at similar times

DATABANK - PSEI - PE RATIO

The index has a base value of 1022.045 as of February 28, 1990.

Mo.End : PSEI : PEratio : Earns. : Chg. annual :
YrE.’95 : 2,594 : 18.860 : P137.5 : ==========
YrE.’00 : 1,495 : 14.160 : P105.6 : -23.2/-4% pa
YrE.’05 : 2,096 : 15.050 : P139.3 : +31.9/ 5.55%
YrE.’10 : 4,201 : 14.031 : P299.4 : +115./ 15.5%
YrE.’15 : 6,952 : 19.552 : P355.6 : +18.8/ 3.45%
YrE.’16 : 6,841 : 17.371 : P393.8 : +10.7%  p.a.:
YrE.’17 : 8,558 : 21.228 : P403.1 : + 2.36% p.a.:
YrE.’18 : 7,486 : 17.887 : P418.5 : + 3.82%  p.a.:
YrE.’19 : 7,815 : 16.062 : P486.6 : +16.3%  p.a. :

Year: YePrice: BkVal.: Pr/BV: E.P.S. : PE-R: EarnY: Yield: Div.s (%Eps)
YrE.’95 : 2,594 : 18.860 : P137.5 : ==========
YrE.’00 : 1,495 : 14.160 : P105.6 : -23.2/-4% pa
YrE.’05 : 2,096 : 15.050 : P139.3 : +31.9/ 5.55%
2007: P25.22 : P25.99: 97.0%: P2.97: 8.49:
2008: P12.61 : P25.60: 49.3%: P1.96: 6.43:
2009: P21.70 : P29.65: 73.2%: P4.10: 5.29:
2010: P35.14 : P34.00: 103.%: P5.06: 6.94:
2011: P38.72 : P40.07: 96.6%: P6.26: 6.19:
2012: P66.11 : P44.73: 148.%: P7.39: 8.95:
2013: P73.91 : P42.51: 96.6%: P8.53: 8.66: 11.5%: 2.87%: 2.12 (24.9%)
2014: P66.65 : P52.76: 126.%: P7.94: 8.39: 11.9%: 4.00%: 2.67 (33.6%)
2015: P57.05 : P56.21: 102.%: P5.68: 10.0: 9.95%: 3.68%: 2.10 (37.0%)
2016: P74.60 : P63.30: 118.%: P9.50: 7.85: 12.7%: 2.01%: 1.50 (15.8%)
2017: P86.65 : P69.25: 125.%: P7.95: 10.8: 9.17%: 2.19%: 1.90 (23.9%)
2018: P63.95 : P82.34: 77.7%: P6.66: 9.54: 10.4%: 2.86%: 1.90 (28.5%)
’19 E: P57.20 : P80est.: 71.5%: P8.5E: r6.59: 15%e 6.12%: 1.90 > '20: 3.50 (41%.E)
==== Average Pr./BV:> 104.%: === >  8.90:

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DANGEROUS! _ Heavy speculation on high beta stocks is not a formula for consistent profits

- It can also be a warning sign of a market about to Rollover, sense goes out the window/ 

JUoO3Dl.png

The PSEI stopped ringing the bell weeks ago, as it prepared to rollover

Retail Traders in World’s Worst Market Snap Up Speculative Plays

    Philippine online broker says new accounts doubled last year
    Some 80% of new clients looking for ‘quick buck’: COL’s Bate

Philippine stocks have rapidly gone from one of the world’s best performers to the absolute worst, prompting the nation’s growing pack of retail investors to shift attention to speculative penny stocks in the search for better returns.
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index is down 7.4% so far this year, the biggest decline among 92 global equity benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg...

Riskier the Better Is Rallying Cry of Day Traders Going Small
Philippine small investors are fueling a surge in speculative stocks, flush with funds from last quarter and enabled by the growing power of internet trading platforms, according to Conrado Bate, president of COL Financial Group Inc., the nation’s biggest online stock broker.    

> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-30/retail-traders-in-world-s-worst-market-snap-up-speculative-plays

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EQUITIES can be a dangerous Hedge for those Bearish on the US Dollar

Look:  PSEI correlates with the UK's FTSE 100 index.  And watching them together gives warning signs of Turns.

xx chart? xx

Coming up this week... maybe, just maybe... a Monday market DROP & then a bounce... but for how long?

The new Bidem administration is destroying jobs like crazy (with reckless Exec Orders) so how long can the US and global economy hold up?

Equity markets might be a good long term alternative to holding a weak currency, as governments running printing presses to keep rates down.  But holding equities will be a bumpy path.  (And holding Cryptos clearly exposes Hodlers to huge volatiility.).

And anyway, the USD dollar looks set for a rally soon

DXY - trade-weighted USD.... from 2000: xx / 5yr: 3yr: 1yr / Last: 90.53

WBjNBEL.gif

There's a 3-5 year cycle in the US dollar / chart / & it may be bottoming while Stock indices rollover

8u8Hm06.gif

The XUKS, & other etfs are SHORT etfs on UK stocks, & trade in London

===

From related Viber chats:

DV:

This could be an opportunity to buy blues again at a Massive bargain, like when the lockdown began last year

TS:

That is just the second step. The first step is to profit from the drop THEN buy during bottoming action.

Because Phils never had short-selling and puts and bearish ETFs, the population here misses that first step which was epitomized in the movie The Big Short. That blind spot also means there may be less chances here to recognize a significant downward reversal ahead of time.

MS:

Smoking guns... after a good 2020 for traders, they had an amazing January.. crypto initially went through the roof and then they moved on to whack some HFs in highly shorted names. I have people telling me, they don’t want to do crypto because there is so much more money to be made to follow Reddit and punt small caps .. imagine that. What will they do next? You always need a greater thrill.. more leverage on the next trade? Bigger target? I agree those are sign of excess. But how to make it stop? I feel this can continue way longer... the market will keep getting flooded by liquidity, « social investing » is likely here to stay, and by now any plumber or hairdresser has a brokerage account.

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19 hours ago, drbubb said:

I agree those are sign of excess. But how to make it stop? I feel this can continue way longer... the market will keep getting flooded by liquidity, « social investing » is likely here to stay, and by now any plumber or hairdresser has a brokerage account.

Exactly how I feel about it.

But I need to see a significant correction before I buy anything so...

It's watch and wait for the right opportunity and I don't mean a GME situation or anything sophisticated like options just good value stocks preferably with a dividend and some growth potential.

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