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drbubb

Major gold miners: GDX, GOLD, NEM vs UGL

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Barrick GOLD. 10d: w/GDX: $20.35 at 8/13:: GDX to UGL ratio (52-60%): chart :  live Gold, GDX: Jr: UGL: Apx: Cyc: 

edlTXjC.gif

from mid-2016 : w/Kgc: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/ Last: US$20.56, nem: 58.84, gdx: 32.43, ugl; 54.21 > updated at 8.09

iEAf35P.gif

UPDATE & DATA from Below

Wave 3 UP may be just Starting

FXE ($110.14, 65.9%, Eur $1.179) vs. GLD ($167.18), GDX ($31.50, 18.8%). 

fr. Feb2021: w/JNUG10d/ YTD: JNUG ($60.86, 36.4%)

AhLA6R0.gif

WAVE COUNTING from the GDX/ Major Gold stock index Lows in early March, and mid-August

Looks like gold and gold shares sometimes lead the cycle up, buy you need rising FXE (ie falling USD) to help maintain the cycle.  In an Upcycle, like we are in now, GDX and other gold shares will typically move up faster.  Right now, we also have a likely "slingshot effect" because GDX is undervalued relative to gold.  (But when you look for undervaluation, you need to use a different ratio, of GDX-to-UGL, 2x Gold, because that relationship is more stable over time.)

W: - Date- :  - GLD : - FXE  , % G  :  - GDX, % G ,  % U , UGL  : JNUG : %U :
x: 03.01.21: 161.53: 112.97, 69.9: $30.90, 19.1: 56.2, 55.03: 79.69, 145.%
1: 03.18.21: 162.56: 111.63, 68.7: $33.62, 20.7: 60.4, 55.63: 89.50, 161.%
2: 03.30.21: 157.57: 109.82, 69.7: $31.83, 20.2: 60.9, 52.29: 73.53, 141.%
3: 04.22.21: 167.04: 112.49, 67.3: $36.18, 21.7: 61.7, 58.63: 95.72, 163.%
4: 04.30.21: 165.56: 112.58, 68.0: $34.36, 20.8: 59.7, 57.58: 86.20, 150.%
>: 06.02.21: 178.77: 114.22, 63.9: $39.54, 22.1: 59.0, 67.00: 115.0, 172.%
x: 08.20.21: 166.70: 109.20, 65.5: $30.85, 18.5: 53.6, 57.59: 57.89, 101.%
1: 09.03.21: 171.06: 110.85, 64.8: $33.28, 19.5, 54.9, 60.61: 70.08, 116.%
2: 09.10.21: 167.18: 110.14, 65.9: $31.50, 18.8: 54.5, 57.82: 60.86, 105.%
    = 2020 =
# 01.02.20: 143.95: 105.85, 73.5: $29.35, 20.4: 59.1, 49.70: 84.11, 169??
>: 03.18.20: 140.70: 103.13, 73.3: $19.68, 14.0: 42.3, 46.50: $5.08, ???.%
x: 08.07.20: 190.81: 111.10, 58.2: $45.50, 23.8: 56.4, 80.61: 164.1, 203.%
# 12.31.20: 178.38: 114.74, 64.3: $36.02, 20.2: 52.8, 68.20: 120.6, 177.%
=========

KkGdw4s.png

CHART SHOWS the GDX to UGL ratio has a generally stable and interesting relationship (with some brief exceptions). Buy GDX to UGL when it is on the bottom of the range.  This time signal should also help get you into individual Gold stocks at the right time

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Gold shares OFF FRIDAY's LOW.  In a powerful way

GDX, etc ... from 1.2020: w/Gold-2020: Gold-2021: 10d/  32.12 +4.12%, vol. 35.0 Millon

mBtqYb6.gif

Timing= :  GDX :  UGL : Ratio: AGQ : Gold : NEM:
08.24.21: 32.12: 58.99: 54.4: 36.91: 20.15: 57.78:
Change:  +1.27: +1.40: === : +1.84: +0.92: +1.43:
+ Pct.   : +4.1%: +2.4%: === : +5.3%:+4.8%: +2.5%:
08.20.21: 30.85: 57.59: 53.6: 35.07: 19.23: 56.35:
Yr.  Low : 30.64: 51.97: 59.0 34.56: 18.64: 54.18:
Yr.  High : 43.60: 76.81: 56.8: 66.11: 30.87: 75.31:
12.31.20: 36.02: 68.20:  52.8: 51.28: 22.78: 59.89:
08.10.20: 44.53: 81.44: 54.7: 60.57: 29.84: 70.37:
12.31.19: 29.28: 49.05:  59.7: 31.65: 18.59: 43.45:
12.31.18: 21.09:  37.41: 56.4: 26.36: 13.54: 34.65:
======

Timing= :  GDX : Gold : NEM: GCM.t: Tprff: FSM:
08.24.21: 32.12: 20.15: 57.78: $4.90 : $3.88: $4.13:
Change:  +1.27: +0.92: +1.43: +0.29 : +0.29: +0.30:
+ Pct.   : +4.1%:+4.8%: +2.5%: +6.3%: +8.1%: +7.8%:
08.20.21: 30.85: 19.23: 56.35:
Yr.  Low: 30.64: 18.64: 54.18: $4.50: $3.37: $3.81

GDXJ-etc :  YTD: $41.89 +5.54%, vol. 11.5 Millon

QLBTtfN.gif

 

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GDX vs. UGL ... from 1/2020: 2021: YTD: 5yr: 3yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d :: $32.17 / $59.48 = 54% range: 56% +/- 4%

eos9ng7.gif

AGQ etc... fr. 2016: AGQ: $39.98

ScTXHmG.gif

from 1/2020: 2021: YTD

9wBSPfq.gif

 

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Failed at resistance level

GOLD vs. UGL, GDX. 6mo: fr.1.12.21: Ugl-1.12: 10d/ Resistance: UGL: $61, GDX: $33.5 (55%) GOLD: $20.5 (33.6%)

Gold: $19.85, -0.45, -2.22%, UGL: 58.23 -2.38, -3.93% ; Ratio: 34.1%

52nj4fc.gif

: Ugl-1.12: 10d /

Kae7jYN.gif

Ratio: 34.1%: Gold: $19.85/ UGL: 58.23

v2RAXXN.png

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UGL is Key. Correlation is High ! But swings are bigger, with AGQ-Silver-2X

UGL ($57.82) etc: fr. 1.2020: YTD: 10dGDX: 31.50, 54.5%%, AGQ: 37.18, 64.3%

nZRtrSY.gif

AGQ-to UGL Ratio: AGQ: 37.18, /UGL ($57.82) = 64.3%

UliLiR9.png

Fav

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Wave 3 UP may be just Starting

FXE ($110.14, 65.9%, Eur $1.179) vs. GLD ($167.18), GDX ($31.50, 18.8%). 

fr. Feb2021: w/JNUG10d/ YTD: JNUG ($60.86, 36.4%)

AhLA6R0.gif

WAVE COUNTING from the GDX/ Major Gold stock index Lows in early March, and mid-August

Looks like gold and gold shares sometimes lead the cycle up, buy you need rising FXE (ie falling USD) to help maintain the cycle.  In an Upcycle, like we are in now, GDX and other gold shares will typically move up faster.  Right now, we also have a likely "slingshot effect" because GDX is undervalued relative to gold.  (But when you look for undervaluation, you need to use a different ratio, of GDX-to-UGL, 2x Gold, because that relationship is more stable over time.)

W: - Date- :  - GLD : - FXE  , % G  :  - GDX, % G ,  % U , UGL  : JNUG : %U :
x: 03.01.21: 161.53: 112.97, 69.9: $30.90, 19.1: 56.2, 55.03: 79.69, 145.%
1: 03.18.21: 162.56: 111.63, 68.7: $33.62, 20.7: 60.4, 55.63: 89.50, 161.%
2: 03.30.21: 157.57: 109.82, 69.7: $31.83, 20.2: 60.9, 52.29: 73.53, 141.%
3: 04.22.21: 167.04: 112.49, 67.3: $36.18, 21.7: 61.7, 58.63: 95.72, 163.%
4: 04.30.21: 165.56: 112.58, 68.0: $34.36, 20.8: 59.7, 57.58: 86.20, 150.%
>: 06.02.21: 178.77: 114.22, 63.9: $39.54, 22.1: 59.0, 67.00: 115.0, 172.%
x: 08.20.21: 166.70: 109.20, 65.5: $30.85, 18.5: 53.6, 57.59: 57.89, 101.%
1: 09.03.21: 171.06: 110.85, 64.8: $33.28, 19.5, 54.9, 60.61: 70.08, 116.%
2: 09.10.21: 167.18: 110.14, 65.9: $31.50, 18.8: 54.5, 57.82: 60.86, 105.%
    = 2020 =
# 01.02.20: 143.95: 105.85, 73.5: $29.35, 20.4: 59.1, 49.70: 84.11, 169??
>: 03.18.20: 140.70: 103.13, 73.3: $19.68, 14.0: 42.3, 46.50: $5.08, ???.%
x: 08.07.20: 190.81: 111.10, 58.2: $45.50, 23.8: 56.4, 80.61: 164.1, 203.%
# 12.31.20: 178.38: 114.74, 64.3: $36.02, 20.2: 52.8, 68.20: 120.6, 177.%
=========

KkGdw4s.png

CHART SHOWS the GDX to UGL ratio has a generally stable and interesting relationship (with some brief exceptions). Buy GDX to UGL when it is on the bottom of the range.  This time signal should also help get you into individual Gold stocks at the right time

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GOLD etc.. fr. 3.14.21: Ytd: 10d/ UGL: $59.01 / GOLD: $19.50, 33.0%, GDX: $32.27, 54.7%

UNJNBxR.gif

GOLD etc.. fr. 3.14.21: Ytd: 10d/

3ymiJeS.gif

Ratio: GOLD to-UGL : 33.3%

ySStzzE.png

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10 Day Charts... update

GOLD etc.. fr. 3.14.21: Ytd: 10d/

Wed Sep 15 : $19.36

FQanfVG.gif

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GBS.L /GOLD is down, almost 1% today, but I am expecting a pickup soon, around here somewhere - Gold $1770?

Looks like an a-b-c correction may be ending. Possibly today.  Then, a 3rd, of 3rd wave maybe

GBS.L Gold Bullion Securities... All: 10yr: 5yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: 165.75, LOD: 165.34

74Nti9x.gif

5yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: 165.75

H0LfkBt.gif

===

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