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drbubb

Major Gold Miners: GDX, GOLD, NEM vs UGL

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Barrick GOLD. 10d: w/GDX: $20.35 at 8/13:: GDX to UGL ratio (52-60%): chart :  live Gold, GDX: Jr: UGL: Apx: Cyc: 

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10d: w/GDX: $18.52 at 10/08 / UGL: $55.61= 33.3%; GDX: $30.67, 55.2%

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UPDATE... OCT > 10/6, 54.0% ...Another Possible Bottom behind us after testing 52% (51.8%)?

GDX vs. UGL, GOLD ... YTD: w/FXE: w/NEM: 10d / $30.34, UGL: $56.16 = 54.0%, GOLD: $18.45 = 32.9%

kgNGEiV.gif

 

fr. Feb2021: w/JNUG10d/ YTD: JNUG ($60.86, 36.4%)

AhLA6R0.gif

WAVE COUNTING from the GDX/ Major Gold stock index Lows in early March, and mid-August

Looks like gold and gold shares sometimes lead the cycle up, buy you need rising FXE (ie falling USD) to help maintain the cycle.  In an Upcycle, like we are in now, GDX and other gold shares will typically move up faster.  Right now, we also have a likely "slingshot effect" because GDX is undervalued relative to gold.  (But when you look for undervaluation, you need to use a different ratio, of GDX-to-UGL, 2x Gold, because that relationship is more stable over time.)

W: - Date- :  - GLD : - FXE  , % G  :  - GDX, % G ,  % U , UGL  : JNUG : %U :
x: 03.01.21: 161.53: 112.97, 69.9: $30.90, 19.1: 56.2, 55.03: 79.69, 145.%
1: 03.18.21: 162.56: 111.63, 68.7: $33.62, 20.7: 60.4, 55.63: 89.50, 161.%
2: 03.30.21: 157.57: 109.82, 69.7: $31.83, 20.2: 60.9, 52.29: 73.53, 141.%
3: 04.22.21: 167.04: 112.49, 67.3: $36.18, 21.7: 61.7, 58.63: 95.72, 163.%
4: 04.30.21: 165.56: 112.58, 68.0: $34.36, 20.8: 59.7, 57.58: 86.20, 150.%
>: 06.02.21: 178.77: 114.22, 63.9: $39.54, 22.1: 59.0, 67.00: 115.0, 172.%
x: 08.20.21: 166.70: 109.20, 65.5: $30.85, 18.5: 53.6, 57.59: 57.89, 101.%
1: 09.03.21: 171.06: 110.85, 64.8: $33.28, 19.5, 54.9, 60.61: 70.08, 116.%
2: 09.10.21: 167.18: 110.14, 65.9: $31.50, 18.8: 54.5, 57.82: 60.86, 105.%
    = 2020 =
# 01.02.20: 143.95: 105.85, 73.5: $29.35, 20.4: 59.1, 49.70: 84.11, 169??
>: 03.18.20: 140.70: 103.13, 73.3: $19.68, 14.0: 42.3, 46.50: $5.08, ???.%
x: 08.07.20: 190.81: 111.10, 58.2: $45.50, 23.8: 56.4, 80.61: 164.1, 203.%
# 12.31.20: 178.38: 114.74, 64.3: $36.02, 20.2: 52.8, 68.20: 120.6, 177.%
=========

KkGdw4s.png

CHART SHOWS the GDX to UGL ratio has a generally stable and interesting relationship (with some brief exceptions). Buy GDX to UGL when it is on the bottom of the range.  This time signal should also help get you into individual Gold stocks at the right time

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Gold shares OFF FRIDAY's LOW.  In a powerful way

GDX, etc ... from 1.2020: w/Gold-2020: Gold-2021: 10d/  32.12 +4.12%, vol. 35.0 Millon

mBtqYb6.gif

Timing= :  GDX :  UGL : Ratio: AGQ : Gold : NEM:
08.24.21: 32.12: 58.99: 54.4: 36.91: 20.15: 57.78:
Change:  +1.27: +1.40: === : +1.84: +0.92: +1.43:
+ Pct.   : +4.1%: +2.4%: === : +5.3%:+4.8%: +2.5%:
08.20.21: 30.85: 57.59: 53.6: 35.07: 19.23: 56.35:
Yr.  Low : 30.64: 51.97: 59.0 34.56: 18.64: 54.18:
Yr.  High : 43.60: 76.81: 56.8: 66.11: 30.87: 75.31:
12.31.20: 36.02: 68.20:  52.8: 51.28: 22.78: 59.89:
08.10.20: 44.53: 81.44: 54.7: 60.57: 29.84: 70.37:
12.31.19: 29.28: 49.05:  59.7: 31.65: 18.59: 43.45:
12.31.18: 21.09:  37.41: 56.4: 26.36: 13.54: 34.65:
======

Timing= :  GDX : Gold : NEM: GCM.t: Tprff: FSM:
08.24.21: 32.12: 20.15: 57.78: $4.90 : $3.88: $4.13:
Change:  +1.27: +0.92: +1.43: +0.29 : +0.29: +0.30:
+ Pct.   : +4.1%:+4.8%: +2.5%: +6.3%: +8.1%: +7.8%:
08.20.21: 30.85: 19.23: 56.35:
Yr.  Low: 30.64: 18.64: 54.18: $4.50: $3.37: $3.81

GDXJ-etc :  YTD: $41.89 +5.54%, vol. 11.5 Millon

QLBTtfN.gif

 

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GDX vs. UGL ... from 1/2020: 2021: YTD: 5yr: 3yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d :: $32.17 / $59.48 = 54% range: 56% +/- 4%

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AGQ etc... fr. 2016: AGQ: $39.98

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from 1/2020: 2021: YTD

9wBSPfq.gif

 

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Failed at resistance level

GOLD vs. UGL, GDX. 6mo: fr.1.12.21: Ugl-1.12: 10d/ Resistance: UGL: $61, GDX: $33.5 (55%) GOLD: $20.5 (33.6%)

Gold: $19.85, -0.45, -2.22%, UGL: 58.23 -2.38, -3.93% ; Ratio: 34.1%

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: Ugl-1.12: 10d /

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Ratio: 34.1%: Gold: $19.85/ UGL: 58.23

v2RAXXN.png

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UGL is Key. Correlation is High ! But swings are bigger, with AGQ-Silver-2X

UGL ($57.82) etc: fr. 1.2020: YTD: 10dGDX: 31.50, 54.5%%, AGQ: 37.18, 64.3%

nZRtrSY.gif

AGQ-to UGL Ratio: AGQ: 37.18, /UGL ($57.82) = 64.3%

UliLiR9.png

Fav

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Wave 3 UP may be just Starting

FXE ($110.14, 65.9%, Eur $1.179) vs. GLD ($167.18), GDX ($31.50, 18.8%). 

fr. Feb2021: w/JNUG10d/ YTD: JNUG ($60.86, 36.4%)

AhLA6R0.gif

WAVE COUNTING from the GDX/ Major Gold stock index Lows in early March, and mid-August

Looks like gold and gold shares sometimes lead the cycle up, buy you need rising FXE (ie falling USD) to help maintain the cycle.  In an Upcycle, like we are in now, GDX and other gold shares will typically move up faster.  Right now, we also have a likely "slingshot effect" because GDX is undervalued relative to gold.  (But when you look for undervaluation, you need to use a different ratio, of GDX-to-UGL, 2x Gold, because that relationship is more stable over time.)

W: - Date- :  - GLD : - FXE  , % G  :  - GDX, % G ,  % U , UGL  : JNUG : %U :
x: 03.01.21: 161.53: 112.97, 69.9: $30.90, 19.1: 56.2, 55.03: 79.69, 145.%
1: 03.18.21: 162.56: 111.63, 68.7: $33.62, 20.7: 60.4, 55.63: 89.50, 161.%
2: 03.30.21: 157.57: 109.82, 69.7: $31.83, 20.2: 60.9, 52.29: 73.53, 141.%
3: 04.22.21: 167.04: 112.49, 67.3: $36.18, 21.7: 61.7, 58.63: 95.72, 163.%
4: 04.30.21: 165.56: 112.58, 68.0: $34.36, 20.8: 59.7, 57.58: 86.20, 150.%
>: 06.02.21: 178.77: 114.22, 63.9: $39.54, 22.1: 59.0, 67.00: 115.0, 172.%
x: 08.20.21: 166.70: 109.20, 65.5: $30.85, 18.5: 53.6, 57.59: 57.89, 101.%
1: 09.03.21: 171.06: 110.85, 64.8: $33.28, 19.5, 54.9, 60.61: 70.08, 116.%
2: 09.10.21: 167.18: 110.14, 65.9: $31.50, 18.8: 54.5, 57.82: 60.86, 105.%
    = 2020 =
# 01.02.20: 143.95: 105.85, 73.5: $29.35, 20.4: 59.1, 49.70: 84.11, 169??
>: 03.18.20: 140.70: 103.13, 73.3: $19.68, 14.0: 42.3, 46.50: $5.08, ???.%
x: 08.07.20: 190.81: 111.10, 58.2: $45.50, 23.8: 56.4, 80.61: 164.1, 203.%
# 12.31.20: 178.38: 114.74, 64.3: $36.02, 20.2: 52.8, 68.20: 120.6, 177.%
=========

KkGdw4s.png

CHART SHOWS the GDX to UGL ratio has a generally stable and interesting relationship (with some brief exceptions). Buy GDX to UGL when it is on the bottom of the range.  This time signal should also help get you into individual Gold stocks at the right time

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GOLD etc.. fr. 3.14.21: Ytd: 10d/ UGL: $59.01 / GOLD: $19.50, 33.0%, GDX: $32.27, 54.7%

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GOLD etc.. fr. 3.14.21: Ytd: 10d/

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Ratio: GOLD to-UGL : 33.3%

ySStzzE.png

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10 Day Charts... update

GOLD etc.. fr. 3.14.21: Ytd: 10d/

Wed Sep 15 : $19.36

FQanfVG.gif

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GBS.L /GOLD is down, almost 1% today, but I am expecting a pickup soon, around here somewhere - Gold $1770?

(note: later got breeched and Gold slid over $40 to as low as ....

Looks like an a-b-c correction may be ending. Possibly today.  Then, a 3rd, of 3rd wave maybe

GBS.L Gold Bullion Securities... All: 10yr: 5yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: Ytd: GLD: 10d / Last: 165.75, LOD: 165.34

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GLD - updated: : GLD: 10d / Last: 163.75 > Gold slid as low as $17xx

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5yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: 165.75

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===

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TOP 5 > Top 10

Kitco ranked the top 10 largest gold mining companies based on their quarterly production figures reported in Q2 2021.

1. Newmont. 1,449 koz. Attributable gold production increased 15% to 1,449 koz in Q2 2021 from the prior year quarter primarily due to higher production from sites that were placed into care and maintenance or experienced reduced operations in response to Covid during 2020, and higher ore grade milled and higher mill throughput at Boddington.

2. Barrick. 1,041 koz. Q2 2021 gold production was lower 9% than a year before, with planned maintenance shutdowns at Nevada Gold Mines’ processing facilities further impacted by a mechanical mill failure at Carlin’s Goldstrike roaster, as well as planned maintenance at Pueblo Viejo.

3. Polyus. 672 koz. Total gold output in Q2 2021 amounted to 672 koz, which is 3% less than 690 koz produced in Q2 2020. The company’s flagship Olimpiada mine produced 270 koz of gold in Q2 2021, a 12% decrease compared to 308.1 thousand ounces produced in Q2 2020. The company said that volumes of ore processed at Olimpiada were down due to scheduled maintenance at Mill-1 and Mill-3. Over the course of the second quarter, Polyus continued to improve the efficiency of BIO complex.

4. AngloGold Ashanti. 613 koz. Production in Q2 2021 decreased by 12% and was adversely impacted by the suspension of underground mining activities at Obuasi following the failure of a sill pillar in May 2021, and the ongoing impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic across its business.

5. Gold Fields. 563 koz. Attributable equivalent gold production (including Asanko) increased by 2% to 563 koz in Q2 2021. The increase was due to the second quarter of 2020 being impacted more severely by Covid-19 related delays.

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On 9/13/2021 at 3:36 PM, drbubb said:

Wave 3 UP may be just Starting

FXE ($110.14, 65.9%, Eur $1.179) vs. GLD ($167.18), GDX ($31.50, 18.8%). 

fr. Feb2021: w/JNUG10d/ YTD: JNUG ($60.86, 36.4%)

AhLA6R0.gif

WAVE COUNTING from the GDX/ Major Gold stock index Lows in early March, and mid-August

Looks like gold and gold shares sometimes lead the cycle up, buy you need rising FXE (ie falling USD) to help maintain the cycle.  In an Upcycle, like we are in now, GDX and other gold shares will typically move up faster.  Right now, we also have a likely "slingshot effect" because GDX is undervalued relative to gold.  (But when you look for undervaluation, you need to use a different ratio, of GDX-to-UGL, 2x Gold, because that relationship is more stable over time.)

Updated

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GDX-etc ... Feb-2021: 2yr: YTD: 10d / Gdx: $30.45/ Ugl: $56.19 (54.2%), Gold: $18.65 / Ugl: 33.2%

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Update: w/ GDX:$29.89, UGL:$55.13 = ratio: 54.2%

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GLD-etc: Feb.21 $163.30, LOD: $162.74,  GDX: $29.68 / UGL: $55.02 = ratio 53.9%, less lines

lXFoeDe.gif

===

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On BUY point!  Gold Miners on/near important support

GDX / Major Gold miners...  All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr; / Last: $29.63

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GDXJ / Junior Gold miners...  All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr; / Last: $38.93

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HUI / Unhedged Major Gold miners...  All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr; / Last: $230.39 > chart:9.19

XAU / PHLX Gold/Silver Index ...  All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr; / Last: $119.78

VbzXUY3.gif

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Miners: damage has been done. A lot of work needed.

New highs in miners and Gold are unlikely this year

Longer term, Gold & miners are very Bullish, with a Cup and Handle - "there's a ton of potential"

Gold, Bitcoin price: Expect more pain before major gains – Chris Vermeulen

= 2 =

It's Torture to Be in Gold Right Now, But I Like It | Peter Boockvar

 

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RATIO:  on Low End of Range at 52.5%. Three to Six months to the Top?  Q1.2022?

qjwRN2B.png

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Barrick ramps up new underground gold mine at Loulo-Gounkoto

Kitco News |

(Kitco News) - Speaking at a media briefing yesterday, Barrick president and chief executive Mark Bristow said that its Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine in Mali was on track to meet its annual production guidance, with its new underground mine at Gounkoto ramping up ...

The Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex is set to remain a major contributor to the Malian economy well into the future as it continues to replace the ore depleted by mining," Bristow noted.

He added, "Loulo-Gounkoto is one of the world's greatest gold mining operations and it continues to confirm its status as a member of the industry's elite Tier One1 club as well as the largest private sector contributor to Mali's GDP."

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UPDATE... OCT > 10/6, 54.0% ...Another Possible Bottom behind us after testing 52%?

GDX vs. UGL, GOLD ... YTD: w/FXE: w/NEM: 10d / $30.34, UGL: $56.16 = 54.0%, GOLD: $18.45 = 32.9%

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w/NEM: 10d / $30.34, UGL: $56.16 = 54.0%, GOLD: $18.45 = 32.9%

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BARRICK NEWS

Barrick CEO to meet Papua New Guinea premier amid hopes of Porgera restart ...

MELBOURNE, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp Chief Executive Mark Bristow is expected to meet Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape this week, with the hope of speeding up a restart of the country's giant Porgera gold mine, the miner has said.

Bristow is due to arrive in the country on Tuesday and stay until Friday as part of a regular visit, and will meet with the PM and senior government officials, Porgera Joint Venture said in a statement dated Oct.10.

The Porgera mine was placed on care and maintenance in April 2020, after a dispute over benefit sharing terms between the government, local people and Barrick, as part of renewing its mining lease. The standoff was resolved a year later when the PNG government won a majority 51% stake, and joint venture partners Barrick and China's Zijin Mining agreed to halve their stakes, leading Bristow to express hope the mine could restart this year.

Barrick says its Tanzanian gold mines on track to meet their 2021 production targets

Kitco News |

(Kitco News) - Barrick Gold said yesterday that its Tanzanian mines, North Mara and Bulyanhulu, are both set to meet their 2021 production targets as well as to replace depleted reserves through brownfields exploration.

x

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GOLD : 19.655 +0.425, +2.2%,  now my second largest position, using options

  • Barrick Set to Achieve 2021 Production Targets GlobeNewswire

    07:01 AM ET

  • Oct. 14, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE:GOLD)(TSX:ABX) ("Barrick" or the "Company") today reported preliminary Q3 sales of 1.07 million ounces of gold and 101 million pounds of copper, as well as preliminary Q3 production of 1.09 million ounces of gold and 100 million pounds of copper. It remains on track to achieve 2021 guidance1, with both the Africa & Middle East and Latin America & Asia Pacific regions continuing to trend to the higher end of their regional gold guidance and North America at the lower end.

    As previously guided, Barrick's Q4 gold production is expected to be the strongest of 2021 following the repair of the mill at Carlin's Goldstrike roaster late in Q3. Consequently, for Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) both Carlin and Cortez are expected to be at the low end of their annual guidance ranges, whereas Phoenix and Long Canyon are expected to be at the top end of their guidance ranges. Furthermore, production at Turquoise Ridge is expected to be below its annual guidance range, although full year production is still expected to be higher than the prior year. Production at Hemlo is also expected to be below its annual guidance range following a slower ramp-up of underground development due to Covid-19 movement restrictions.

    The average market price for gold in Q3 was $1,790 per ounce, while the average market price for copper in Q3 was $4.25 per pound.

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