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drbubb

Major gold miners: GDX, GOLD, NEM vs UGL

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Barrick GOLD. 10d: w/GDX: $20.35 at 8/13:: GDX to UGL ratio (52-60%): chart :  live Gold, GDX: Jr: UGL: Apx: Cyc: 

edlTXjC.gif

from mid-2016 : w/Kgc: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/ Last: US$20.56, nem: 58.84, gdx: 32.43, ugl; 54.21 > updated at 8.09

iEAf35P.gif

UPDATE & DATA from Below

Wave 3 UP may be just Starting

FXE ($110.14, 65.9%, Eur $1.179) vs. GLD ($167.18), GDX ($31.50, 18.8%). 

fr. Feb2021: w/JNUG10d/ YTD: JNUG ($60.86, 36.4%)

AhLA6R0.gif

WAVE COUNTING from the GDX/ Major Gold stock index Lows in early March, and mid-August

Looks like gold and gold shares sometimes lead the cycle up, buy you need rising FXE (ie falling USD) to help maintain the cycle.  In an Upcycle, like we are in now, GDX and other gold shares will typically move up faster.  Right now, we also have a likely "slingshot effect" because GDX is undervalued relative to gold.  (But when you look for undervaluation, you need to use a different ratio, of GDX-to-UGL, 2x Gold, because that relationship is more stable over time.)

W: - Date- :  - GLD : - FXE  , % G  :  - GDX, % G ,  % U , UGL  : JNUG : %U :
x: 03.01.21: 161.53: 112.97, 69.9: $30.90, 19.1: 56.2, 55.03: 79.69, 145.%
1: 03.18.21: 162.56: 111.63, 68.7: $33.62, 20.7: 60.4, 55.63: 89.50, 161.%
2: 03.30.21: 157.57: 109.82, 69.7: $31.83, 20.2: 60.9, 52.29: 73.53, 141.%
3: 04.22.21: 167.04: 112.49, 67.3: $36.18, 21.7: 61.7, 58.63: 95.72, 163.%
4: 04.30.21: 165.56: 112.58, 68.0: $34.36, 20.8: 59.7, 57.58: 86.20, 150.%
>: 06.02.21: 178.77: 114.22, 63.9: $39.54, 22.1: 59.0, 67.00: 115.0, 172.%
x: 08.20.21: 166.70: 109.20, 65.5: $30.85, 18.5: 53.6, 57.59: 57.89, 101.%
1: 09.03.21: 171.06: 110.85, 64.8: $33.28, 19.5, 54.9, 60.61: 70.08, 116.%
2: 09.10.21: 167.18: 110.14, 65.9: $31.50, 18.8: 54.5, 57.82: 60.86, 105.%
    = 2020 =
# 01.02.20: 143.95: 105.85, 73.5: $29.35, 20.4: 59.1, 49.70: 84.11, 169??
>: 03.18.20: 140.70: 103.13, 73.3: $19.68, 14.0: 42.3, 46.50: $5.08, ???.%
x: 08.07.20: 190.81: 111.10, 58.2: $45.50, 23.8: 56.4, 80.61: 164.1, 203.%
# 12.31.20: 178.38: 114.74, 64.3: $36.02, 20.2: 52.8, 68.20: 120.6, 177.%
=========

KkGdw4s.png

CHART SHOWS the GDX to UGL ratio has a generally stable and interesting relationship (with some brief exceptions). Buy GDX to UGL when it is on the bottom of the range.  This time signal should also help get you into individual Gold stocks at the right time

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Gold shares OFF FRIDAY's LOW.  In a powerful way

GDX, etc ... from 1.2020: w/Gold-2020: Gold-2021: 10d/  32.12 +4.12%, vol. 35.0 Millon

mBtqYb6.gif

Timing= :  GDX :  UGL : Ratio: AGQ : Gold : NEM:
08.24.21: 32.12: 58.99: 54.4: 36.91: 20.15: 57.78:
Change:  +1.27: +1.40: === : +1.84: +0.92: +1.43:
+ Pct.   : +4.1%: +2.4%: === : +5.3%:+4.8%: +2.5%:
08.20.21: 30.85: 57.59: 53.6: 35.07: 19.23: 56.35:
Yr.  Low : 30.64: 51.97: 59.0 34.56: 18.64: 54.18:
Yr.  High : 43.60: 76.81: 56.8: 66.11: 30.87: 75.31:
12.31.20: 36.02: 68.20:  52.8: 51.28: 22.78: 59.89:
08.10.20: 44.53: 81.44: 54.7: 60.57: 29.84: 70.37:
12.31.19: 29.28: 49.05:  59.7: 31.65: 18.59: 43.45:
12.31.18: 21.09:  37.41: 56.4: 26.36: 13.54: 34.65:
======

Timing= :  GDX : Gold : NEM: GCM.t: Tprff: FSM:
08.24.21: 32.12: 20.15: 57.78: $4.90 : $3.88: $4.13:
Change:  +1.27: +0.92: +1.43: +0.29 : +0.29: +0.30:
+ Pct.   : +4.1%:+4.8%: +2.5%: +6.3%: +8.1%: +7.8%:
08.20.21: 30.85: 19.23: 56.35:
Yr.  Low: 30.64: 18.64: 54.18: $4.50: $3.37: $3.81

GDXJ-etc :  YTD: $41.89 +5.54%, vol. 11.5 Millon

QLBTtfN.gif

 

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GDX vs. UGL ... from 1/2020: 2021: YTD: 5yr: 3yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d :: $32.17 / $59.48 = 54% range: 56% +/- 4%

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AGQ etc... fr. 2016: AGQ: $39.98

ScTXHmG.gif

from 1/2020: 2021: YTD

9wBSPfq.gif

 

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Failed at resistance level

GOLD vs. UGL, GDX. 6mo: fr.1.12.21: Ugl-1.12: 10d/ Resistance: UGL: $61, GDX: $33.5 (55%) GOLD: $20.5 (33.6%)

Gold: $19.85, -0.45, -2.22%, UGL: 58.23 -2.38, -3.93% ; Ratio: 34.1%

52nj4fc.gif

: Ugl-1.12: 10d /

Kae7jYN.gif

Ratio: 34.1%: Gold: $19.85/ UGL: 58.23

v2RAXXN.png

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UGL is Key. Correlation is High ! But swings are bigger, with AGQ-Silver-2X

UGL ($57.82) etc: fr. 1.2020: YTD: 10dGDX: 31.50, 54.5%%, AGQ: 37.18, 64.3%

nZRtrSY.gif

AGQ-to UGL Ratio: AGQ: 37.18, /UGL ($57.82) = 64.3%

UliLiR9.png

Fav

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Wave 3 UP may be just Starting

FXE ($110.14, 65.9%, Eur $1.179) vs. GLD ($167.18), GDX ($31.50, 18.8%). 

fr. Feb2021: w/JNUG10d/ YTD: JNUG ($60.86, 36.4%)

AhLA6R0.gif

WAVE COUNTING from the GDX/ Major Gold stock index Lows in early March, and mid-August

Looks like gold and gold shares sometimes lead the cycle up, buy you need rising FXE (ie falling USD) to help maintain the cycle.  In an Upcycle, like we are in now, GDX and other gold shares will typically move up faster.  Right now, we also have a likely "slingshot effect" because GDX is undervalued relative to gold.  (But when you look for undervaluation, you need to use a different ratio, of GDX-to-UGL, 2x Gold, because that relationship is more stable over time.)

W: - Date- :  - GLD : - FXE  , % G  :  - GDX, % G ,  % U , UGL  : JNUG : %U :
x: 03.01.21: 161.53: 112.97, 69.9: $30.90, 19.1: 56.2, 55.03: 79.69, 145.%
1: 03.18.21: 162.56: 111.63, 68.7: $33.62, 20.7: 60.4, 55.63: 89.50, 161.%
2: 03.30.21: 157.57: 109.82, 69.7: $31.83, 20.2: 60.9, 52.29: 73.53, 141.%
3: 04.22.21: 167.04: 112.49, 67.3: $36.18, 21.7: 61.7, 58.63: 95.72, 163.%
4: 04.30.21: 165.56: 112.58, 68.0: $34.36, 20.8: 59.7, 57.58: 86.20, 150.%
>: 06.02.21: 178.77: 114.22, 63.9: $39.54, 22.1: 59.0, 67.00: 115.0, 172.%
x: 08.20.21: 166.70: 109.20, 65.5: $30.85, 18.5: 53.6, 57.59: 57.89, 101.%
1: 09.03.21: 171.06: 110.85, 64.8: $33.28, 19.5, 54.9, 60.61: 70.08, 116.%
2: 09.10.21: 167.18: 110.14, 65.9: $31.50, 18.8: 54.5, 57.82: 60.86, 105.%
    = 2020 =
# 01.02.20: 143.95: 105.85, 73.5: $29.35, 20.4: 59.1, 49.70: 84.11, 169??
>: 03.18.20: 140.70: 103.13, 73.3: $19.68, 14.0: 42.3, 46.50: $5.08, ???.%
x: 08.07.20: 190.81: 111.10, 58.2: $45.50, 23.8: 56.4, 80.61: 164.1, 203.%
# 12.31.20: 178.38: 114.74, 64.3: $36.02, 20.2: 52.8, 68.20: 120.6, 177.%
=========

KkGdw4s.png

CHART SHOWS the GDX to UGL ratio has a generally stable and interesting relationship (with some brief exceptions). Buy GDX to UGL when it is on the bottom of the range.  This time signal should also help get you into individual Gold stocks at the right time

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GOLD etc.. fr. 3.14.21: Ytd: 10d/ UGL: $59.01 / GOLD: $19.50, 33.0%, GDX: $32.27, 54.7%

UNJNBxR.gif

GOLD etc.. fr. 3.14.21: Ytd: 10d/

3ymiJeS.gif

Ratio: GOLD to-UGL : 33.3%

ySStzzE.png

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10 Day Charts... update

GOLD etc.. fr. 3.14.21: Ytd: 10d/

Wed Sep 15 : $19.36

FQanfVG.gif

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GBS.L /GOLD is down, almost 1% today, but I am expecting a pickup soon, around here somewhere - Gold $1770?

(note: later got breeched and Gold slid over $40 to as low as ....

Looks like an a-b-c correction may be ending. Possibly today.  Then, a 3rd, of 3rd wave maybe

GBS.L Gold Bullion Securities... All: 10yr: 5yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: Ytd: GLD: 10d / Last: 165.75, LOD: 165.34

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GLD - updated: : GLD: 10d / Last: 163.75 > Gold slid as low as $17xx

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5yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: 165.75

H0LfkBt.gif

===

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TOP 5 > Top 10

Kitco ranked the top 10 largest gold mining companies based on their quarterly production figures reported in Q2 2021.

1. Newmont. 1,449 koz. Attributable gold production increased 15% to 1,449 koz in Q2 2021 from the prior year quarter primarily due to higher production from sites that were placed into care and maintenance or experienced reduced operations in response to Covid during 2020, and higher ore grade milled and higher mill throughput at Boddington.

2. Barrick. 1,041 koz. Q2 2021 gold production was lower 9% than a year before, with planned maintenance shutdowns at Nevada Gold Mines’ processing facilities further impacted by a mechanical mill failure at Carlin’s Goldstrike roaster, as well as planned maintenance at Pueblo Viejo.

3. Polyus. 672 koz. Total gold output in Q2 2021 amounted to 672 koz, which is 3% less than 690 koz produced in Q2 2020. The company’s flagship Olimpiada mine produced 270 koz of gold in Q2 2021, a 12% decrease compared to 308.1 thousand ounces produced in Q2 2020. The company said that volumes of ore processed at Olimpiada were down due to scheduled maintenance at Mill-1 and Mill-3. Over the course of the second quarter, Polyus continued to improve the efficiency of BIO complex.

4. AngloGold Ashanti. 613 koz. Production in Q2 2021 decreased by 12% and was adversely impacted by the suspension of underground mining activities at Obuasi following the failure of a sill pillar in May 2021, and the ongoing impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic across its business.

5. Gold Fields. 563 koz. Attributable equivalent gold production (including Asanko) increased by 2% to 563 koz in Q2 2021. The increase was due to the second quarter of 2020 being impacted more severely by Covid-19 related delays.

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On 9/13/2021 at 3:36 PM, drbubb said:

Wave 3 UP may be just Starting

FXE ($110.14, 65.9%, Eur $1.179) vs. GLD ($167.18), GDX ($31.50, 18.8%). 

fr. Feb2021: w/JNUG10d/ YTD: JNUG ($60.86, 36.4%)

AhLA6R0.gif

WAVE COUNTING from the GDX/ Major Gold stock index Lows in early March, and mid-August

Looks like gold and gold shares sometimes lead the cycle up, buy you need rising FXE (ie falling USD) to help maintain the cycle.  In an Upcycle, like we are in now, GDX and other gold shares will typically move up faster.  Right now, we also have a likely "slingshot effect" because GDX is undervalued relative to gold.  (But when you look for undervaluation, you need to use a different ratio, of GDX-to-UGL, 2x Gold, because that relationship is more stable over time.)

Updated

h6y2Wq9.gif

GDX-etc ... Feb-2021: 2yr: YTD: 10d / Gdx: $30.45/ Ugl: $56.19 (54.2%), Gold: $18.65 / Ugl: 33.2%

7uBaVbW.gif

==

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