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Major gold miners: GDX, NEM, GOLD etc

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Major gold miners: GDX, NEM, GOLD etc

Barrick Gold looks relatively cheap, in July 2021 / Link: https://tinyurl.com/gdxnem

GOLD/ Barrick, vs. NEM and GDX ... 10d-w/UGL: ytd: 3yr: 6mouk's CEY: 5d / AU: AG:

from mid-2016 : w/Kgc: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/ Last: US$21.13, nem: $63.98, gdx: $34.37

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GOLD : All-log: 10yrL: 10yr: 5yr: / Gold: $21.13 -- NEM:  All-log: 10yrL: 10yr: 5yr: / Gold: $63.98

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GDX : All-log: 10yrL: 10yr: 5yr / GDX: $34.37

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RATIO: GOLD to NEM: 33% or 1/3 of NEM price

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Ratio: GOLD to GDX .. Ratio: GOLD to GDX

Ratio: GDX to GLD: about 20%

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Ratio: GDX to UGL (2x Gold)

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Websites: GOLD: NEM: GDX ...

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GOLD vs. UGL (2x$Gold) and NEM: "Buy near 1/3 !"

Date :  GLD  :  UGL  : %-Ugl : Gold , %-Ugl : NEM, %-Ugl: G/nem
07.23: 169.09: 59.57: 284.%: 20.74, 34.8%: 60.21: 101.%; 34.4%
6/ ’21: 165.63: 57.22: 289.%: 20.68, 36.1%: 63.38: 111.%: 32.6%
Ye’20: 178.36: 68.20: 262.%: 22.78, 33.4%: 59.89: 87.8%: 38.0%
6/’20: 167.37: 64.83: 258.%: 26.94, 41.6%: 61.74: 95.2%: 43.6%
Ye’19: 142.90: 49.05: 291.%: 18.59, 37.8%: 43.45: 88.6%: 42.8%
Ye’18: 121.28: 37.41: 324.%: 13.54, 36.2%: 34.65: 92.6%: 39.1%
Ye’17: 123.65: 40.67: 304.%: 14.47, 35.6%: 37.52: 92.3%: 38.6%
4yrE : ====== 48.84: 295.% ====: 35.8%: ==== : 90.3%: 39.6%

-w/UGL: ytd: 3yr: 6mo: 10d /

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RATIO:  GOLD to UGL: 35% or near 1/3 of UGL price

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RATIO:  GOLD to NEM: 33% or 1/3 of NEM price

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===

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VALUATION & 6 mo Charts

Relative Valuation Stock: > Larger GDX components

Stock  Last : BkVal: E.P.S.: PE-r :  Div.:  Yield: MkCap: Debt :  Ebitda:  EV/e Npat: lastQ >/sh., prev, % chg

Gold : 20.83: 13.31: $1.38: 15.0: $0.38: 1.68% $37.1B $5.15B $7.05B: 6.34 2.46B 538M: 0.29, 0.35 - 17.1%
NEM : 63.19: 28.87: $3.19: 19.8: $1.75: 3.48% $50.6B $6.81B $5.99B: 8.79 2.37B 538M: 0.74, 1.06 - 30.2%
GDX : 33.89: 17.60: $2.03: 16.7* $0.20 0.58% $14.8B =====================>   ??   :
FNV : 147.8:  CAD : $3.12: 47.3: $1.20: 0.81% $28.2B $1.02B $910.M: 29.9 597M: 192M: 0.84, 0.85 - 1.18%:
Rgld : 116.5: 37.03: $4.10: 28.3: $1.20: 1.03% $7.64B $155M $445.M: 16.7 270M: 000M: 0.84, 0.92 - 8.70%
WPM 43.89: 12.95: $1.28: 34.4: $0.56: 1.28% $19.7B $3.48B $824.M: 24.2 575M: 162M: 0.36, 0.35 +3.04%
KGC : $6.19: $5.32: $1.08: 5.73: $0.12: 1.86% $7.81B $2.00B $2.19 B: 4.19 1.37B: 150M: 0.15. 0.27 - 44.5%
KL.   : 41.64: 19.19: $2.73: 15.3: $0.75: 1.80% $11.1B $26.1M $1.66B: 6.24 746M: 161M: 0.63. 0.98 - 35.7%
GCM: $4.92: $4.52: $1.58: 3.49: $0.18: 3.66% $484M $61.7M $176M: 1.66 $95.M: > old data?

Vs. Gold Production

x

====

*Based on 16.9 PER and P/B at r-1.95, with GDX at $34.28 > Link

6mo: 10d: 10d-w/UGL/ Gold: 20.83/33.89: 61.5% / NEM: 63.19/33.89: 186.5%

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Top 10 Holdings (62.45% of Total Assets)

Get Quotes for Top Holdings
Name Symbol %Assets
Newmont Corp NEM 15.50%
Barrick Gold Corp ABX.TO 11.23%
Franco-Nevada Corp FNV.TO  8.46%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM.TO  6.05%
Newcrest Mining Ltd NCM.AX  4.92%
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd AEM.TO    4.31%
Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd KL.TO  3.55%
Northern Star Resources Ltd NST.AX  2.95%
Kinross Gold Corp K.TO  2.76%
Gold Fields Ltd ADR GFI.JO  2.72%

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Barrick produced 4.8 Million Oz of Gold:  At $37 Billion, that's $7,700 per Oz of Production

At under $21, "A solid company to buy, if you want an exposure to Gold"

Barrick Gold Stock Analysis

Does Barrick Gold Stock SHINE? | GOLD Stock Analysis

 

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BEST BIG BOY?  GOLD wins with 6 points.  NEW next at 1 point,  FNV= 0

Newmont vs Barrick Gold vs Franco Nevada stock analysis | Best gold stock to BUY | NEM GOLD FNV

==

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WHY did Buffet Buy BARRICK?

He wanted Cash flow, and LEVERAGE to the Gold price

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100 / 1350 = + 7.4%.   $472M / $5 B = +10%

TROPHY Assets: 5 of the 10 largest Gold mines

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FAST-rising Cash Flow, allowed Debt retirement, and is now going to shareholders

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==

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Stalled? Or ready to "slingshot" in catch-up move?

Compare: ... 10d-w/UGL/ +GDXJ

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Major Gold stocks are hardly budging, despite UGL (2x Gold) being up 8%

There's a 7% Delta for NEM

 

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On gold:

"Preliminary Q2 gold production was lower than Q1, with planned maintenance shutdowns at Nevada Gold Mines' processing facilities further impacted by a mechanical mill failure at Carlin's Goldstrike roaster, as well as planned maintenance at Pueblo Viejo."

"As previously guided, Barrick's gold production in the second half of 2021 is forecast to be higher than the first half."

On copper:

"Preliminary Q2 copper production was slightly higher than Q1."

"Copper sales in Q2 were in line with production, but 15% lower than the previous quarter, as Lumwana sold a higher portion of its stockpiled concentrate in Q1 2021."

"We continue to expect the Company's copper production in the second half of 2021 to be stronger than the first half, mainly driven by higher grades from Lumwa

 07/15/21

July 15 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp (GOLD), said on Thursday second-quarter gold production fell 5.4% from the previous quarter, dented by planned maintenance shutdowns at Nevada Gold Mine in the United States and Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic.

Total preliminary gold production fell to 1.04 million ounces in the three months ended June 30, from 1.10 million ounces in the first quarter, the company said.

Analysts on average had expected production of 1.15 million ounces, according to Refinitiv IBES.

7:40 PM ET 07/15/21

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As I put this thread together, I saw how weak many Gold shares are now. 

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Look at GDX-toGLD ratio, and GDXJ-toGLD, now at 27%, despite the Gold price being strong

(David Hunter thinks that GDXJ could hit $100 this year, and GLD $234- ie Gold $2500/ 10.7 - that would be a 42.7% ratio. 

His target for GDX to Gold is: 60/234= 25.6%, up from the current 17%. )

In fact, I should be looking at the comparison of Gold shares to UGL, the 2x Gold etf, because Gold shares are a leveraged play on Gold

Here's the GDX to-UGL ratio (5 years)

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...And the GDX to-UGL ratio (5 years)

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At yesterday's Low of 76%, it was very close to the bottom of the Normal 75%-87.5% range

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The Power of the Fed (full documentary) | FRONTLINE

"They increased enormously the Wealth at the Top. And Inequality."
145,212 views ..  Jul 14, 2021

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GDX Dropped back to the lower end of the channel, & Gold fell less

GDX ... update : 10d / Last: $33.92 -1.05, -3.0%

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GOLD/ barrick -etc ... update : 10d / Last: $20.86 -0.41, -1.7%; / GDX ($33.92)= r-xx%

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GDX 5-yr:

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Gold : $20.72 + 0.18, +0.88%
GDX : $33.00 + 0.11, +0.11%

I bought a slug of GOLD calls before and after the price drop
And am now near breakeven on the overall package

Barrick will release its Q2 2021 results on Monday, August 9.

Barrick resumes operations at Hemlo after fatality

TORONTO - Miner Barrick Gold has resumed surface operations including processing at its Hemlo mine in Canada's Ontario province after a worker fatality last week suspended mining, a company spokeswoman said on Tuesday.

+++

According to the CEO of Barrick Gold, Mark Bristow, due to an aggressive near-mine exploration program, Kibali was continuing to replace its reserves faster than it was mining them, and now has a resource base that is approaching the 2013 levels when the mine first went into production. The company also said that significant exploration successes could extend the Tongon gold mine"s life. Bristow said 10 years after it went into production Tongon could get a new lease on life thanks to promising results from near-mine exploration campaigns designed to replace the mine"s depleted reserves.

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Looking Back at Q1 Results...

Barrick will release its Q2 2021 results on Monday, August 9.

Financial Results

                         Q1'21 Q4'20 Q1'20
In $ Millions
Revenue ($M).        2,956 3,279 2,721
Net earnings ($M).    538   685.   400
Adj. net earnings    7 507    616    285
Adj. EBITDA12.        1,800 2,106  1,466
Net cash from
Operating activities 1,302 1,638   889
Free cash flow         6 763 1,092   438
Net earnings/ sh ($)  0.30  0.39   0.22
Adj. net earns./ sh.    0.29  0.35    0.16
Cap’l expenditures     424   445    364
Cash & equiv.($M)   5,672 5,188 3,327
Debt, net of cash      (519)   (33) 1,852
Dividend /share ($)   0.09   0.09   0.07
====
Where will the excess Cash Flow go?
+ Strong free cash flow6 of $763 million in Q1
+ Net cash5 improved by $0.5 billion from Q4 after
advanced tax payment of $72 million in Nevada
+ Industry-leading cash return to shareholders in 2021
+ Sustainable quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share in Q1

+ $750 million return of capital approved by shareholders
at AGM equating to $0.42 per share in 2021 – to be paid

in three equal tranches in June, Sep., Dec. (/3= $0.047)

> https://s25.q4cdn.com/322814910/files/doc_presentations/2021/05/Barrick-Q1-2021-Results-Presentation.pdf

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1415355522818887680.png?1626282030Fair Value: about $21.50?

The stock of Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD, 30-year Financials) appears to be fairly valued,

according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $21.3451 per share and the market cap of $38.1 billion, Barrick Gold stock shows every sign of being fairly valued. GF Value for Barrick Gold is shown in the chart below.

... it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. Barrick Gold has a cash-to-debt ratio of 1.10, which is worse than 72% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of Barrick Gold at 6 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Barrick Gold is fair.

... Its operating margin is 38.27%, which ranks better than 90% of the companies in Metals & Mining industry. Overall, the profitability of Barrick Gold is ranked 6 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Barrick Gold over the past years:

> source:  https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1475636/barrick-gold-stock-gives-every-indication-of-being-fairly-valued

OTHER Gold Miners: vs/ GOLD "fairly valued" at $20.83 and EV/ebitda of 6.34, PER: 15.0

NEM : Significantly Overvalued (8.79, 19.8)
FNV : Fairly Valued ($147.8: 29.9, 47.3)
Rgld : Fairly Valued ($116.5: 16.7, 28.3)
Wpm: Fairly Valued ($43.89: 24.2, 34.4)
KGC : Fairly Valued ( $ 6.19: 4.19, 5.73)
KL.   : U'valued -25% ($41.64: 6.24, 15.3)
DPM: ???
GCM: $4.92: $4.52: $1.58: 3.49: $0.18: 3.66% $484M $61.7M $176M: 1.66 $95.M: > old data?
====

Kirkland Lake Gold reported positive production and sales information.

The company produced 379,000 ounces of gold in the second quarter, 9% above consensus. Second quarter sales were 365,000 ounces, 5% above consensus. The company expects to end 2021 in the top half of 1.3-1.4-million-ounce guidance. Dundee Precious Metals reported preliminary production results for the second quarter as well, with consolidated gold output of 85,100 ounces exceeding consensus of 73,700 ounces. Gold production at Chelopech was very strong with 52,600 ounces benefiting from higher grades and improved recoveries. Performance remained solid at Ada Tepe. Dundee has produced 155,400 ounces and puts the company in good shape to aim for the higher end of the guidance range.

Weaknesses

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Newmont declares quarterly dividend of $0.55 per share

0.55 x 4= $2.20* up from $1.75

the declared quarterly dividend of $0.55 per share is in line with the previous quarter and significantly higher compared to a dividend of $0.25 per share a year ago.

Newmont is the world’s leading gold company and a producer of copper, silver, zinc and lead. The company’s portfolio of assets is anchored in favorable mining jurisdictions in North America, South America, Australia and Africa. Newmont is the only gold producer listed in the S&P 500 Index. The company was founded in 1921 and has been publicly traded since 1925.

> https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-07-21/Newmont-declares-quarterly-dividend-of-0-55-per-share.html

NEM $2.20 / $60.36  = 3.64%. GOLG at $20.90, has a yield of less than half that, at 1.7%

GOLD: $0.09 x4= 0.36 / $20.90= $1.72.  (add on Return of Capital payment, of $0.14, then $0.23/qtr; $0.92 pa.) : 4.40%

Next Record date for Gold is Aug.30th

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Newmont posts a healthy $1.6 billion adjusted EBITDA for the quarter

(Kitco News) - Newmont  (NEM:NYSE) recorded $1.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA in their latest quarterly results. In addition to this world's largest gold miner produced 1.4 million attributable ounces of gold and 303 thousand attributable gold equivalent ounces from co-products.

Newmont reported gold CAS of $755 per ounce and AISC of $1,035 per ounce. Full-year results continue to be back-half weighted, in line with guidance ranges. Generated $993 million of cash from continuing operations and $578 million of Free Cash Flow (97 percent attributable to Newmont)*

The producer declared a Q2 dividend of $0.55 per share, consistent with the previous quarter. The company repurchaed $149 million as part of its $1 billion buyback program. Newmont ended the quarter with $4.6 billion of consolidated cash and $7.6 billion of liquidity. The net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio stands at 0.2x and it reduced $550 million of debt outstanding with available cash in April 2021

Looking ahead, Newmont completed the acquisition of GT Gold in May 2021, increasing its interest in the prospective Golden Triangle. The company also approved full funding for Ahafo North in July 2021, meeting Newmont’s internal hurdle rate at the base assumption of $1,200 per ounce gold price; it expects to deliver an internal rate of return of over 30 percent at current prices

> more: https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-07-22/Newmont-posts-a-healthy-1-6-billion-adjusted-EBITDA-for-the-quarter.html

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update / top $2,089 / $194.45= r10.74 = Gold: $1,891 /178.56= r10.59, LTPZ: 88.62 =2,01x, UGL:$68.2 at 12.31.20 /

Gold: $1,830 / GLD: $172 =r10.63, 5.11.21 > $1,804 / $169 = r10.67, LTPZ: $88.5 =1.91x UGL: 59.27 at 7.22.21

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chart#2: LTPZ: $88.7 / UGL: 59.27 = r1.49x at 7.22.21

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LTPZ : $88.7 vs, Yr.H: $90.07

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Gold stocks versus TLT Bonds

GDX, TLT etc... from Mid-2020: 5yr: 3yr: 1yr: 10d :: GDX: xx / TLT: xx = Ratio-XX%

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Ratio GDX: xx / TLT: xx = Ratio-XX%

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==

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Higher costs ahead?

Newmont had a solid second quarter but grouses about higher costs ahead. St. James Gold stumbled on word that it is sending crews to its grassroots gold properties in Newfoundland while getting set to drill Florin, in Yukon. Loncor Gold has raised cash for Imbo in the DRC. 

more...

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