Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

Long Term: Stocks vs Gold, and Gold shares.

Recommended Posts

Long Term: Stocks vs Gold, and Gold shares.

Ratio of Stocks to Gold is back at 2003-4 Tech Bubble High levels

GDX might be a good place to hide in the early weeks (3-5 months?) of a coming stock market correction

GDX vs.SPY($453): r2.65x GLD: 171.06 ... 2005: w/XAU: 2006: 20102016: 10d:: ...x19.5% GDX: $33.28, 7.34%

Ye'04x: SPY: 120.87: r2.77x GLD: $43.6e, x61.5%= GDX: $26.8e, 22.2% of SPY
Ye'08x:        : $90.24: r1.04x         : $86.52, x37.5%=          : $33.88, 37.5%
Ye'11:          : 125.50: 82.6%x.      : 151.99, x33.8%=          : $51.43, 41.0%
Ye'15x:        : 120.87: r2.01x         : 101.46, x13.5%=         : $13.72, 6.73%
Ye'20x:        : 124.51: r2.10x GLD : 178.36, x20.2%=         : $36.02, 9.63%

LcfGIu9.gif

SPY to GLD Ratio, current levels above r-2.5x not seen since 2005 ! (see above, and ratio below)

The Long term chart, goes back to 2005 gives some idea how cheap Gold stocks are now, versus SPY.  They also look cheap on a Cash flow basis

8ZjwEAd.png

GDX to SPY is at a low level as a Pct. of the Big Stock index

Ratio: GDX to SPY: "Normal range" seems to be 9%, +/- 2%.  Now just 7.35% (Alt. chart) : (Alt.#2)

MqPjYMz.png

GDX vs. SPY, GLD ... 2016:

ysRa1qq.gif

The start point of the above chart, Jan.2015, was one of the Cheapest levels for GDX ($13.72), and it had a great rally during 2016.

On a RELATIVE basis, the ratio of GDX to SPY got even cheaper briefly about three years ago.  Note from that point.  GDX performed well in late 2018 when SPY slid.  Great relative performance for a few months.

Further back, also GDX performed well on SPY's first leg down in late 2007 into 2008...  

Was Good again in 2011, when stocks also dropped

Ye'11:  SPY : 125.50: 82.6%x  GLD: 151.99, x33.8%=  GDX: $51.43, 41.0%

JZJfCq9.gif

Conclusion:  GDX might be a good place to hide in the early weeks of a coming stock market correction

Timing  : GDX :   GLD  :   SPY  : gd/S r: gd/G r: Spy/G/ - Gold -  :  XAU :  Gdx /
Ye2003: 29.4e: $41.6e: 111.28: 26.4%: 70.7%:  r2.68 / $416.25: 108.84 x27%
Ye2004: 26.8e: $43.6e: 120.87: 22.2%: 61.5%:  r2.77 / $435.60: $99.35 x27%
Ye2005: 34.5e: $51.58: 124.51: 27.7%: 66.9%:  r2.41 / $513.00: 128.03 x27%
Ye2006: 39.91: $63.21: 141.62: 28.2%: 63.1%:  r2.24 / $632.00: 142.25 x28.05%
Ye2007: 45.83: $82.46: 146.21: 31.3%: 55.6%:  r1.77 / $700.?? : 173.32 x26.44%
Ye2008: 33.88: $86.52: $90.24: 37.5%: 39.2%:  r1.04
Ye2009: 46.21: 107.31: 111.44: 41.5%: 43.1%:  r1.04
Ye2010: 61.47: 138.72: 125.75: 48.9%: 44.3%: 90.6%
Ye2011: 51.43: 151.99: 125.50: 41.0%: 33.8%: 82.6%
Ye2012: 46.39: 162.02: 142.42: 32.6%: 28.6%: 87.6%
Ye2013: 21.13: 116.12: 184.69: 10.3%: 18.2%: r1.59
Ye2014: 18.38: 113.58: 205.54: 8.94%: 16.2%: r1.81
Ye2015: 13.72: 101.46: 203.87: 6.73%: 13.5%: r2.01
Ye2016: 20.92: 109.61: 223.53: 9.36%: 19.1%: r2.04
Ye2017: 23.24: 123.65: 266.86: 8.71%: 18.8%: r2.15
Ye2018: 21.09: 121.25: 249.92: 8.44%: 17.4%: r2.06
Ye2019: 29.28: 142.90: 321.86: 9.09%: 20.5%: r2.25 /
Ye2020: 36.02: 178.36: 373.88: 9.63%: 20.2%: r2.10 / 1887.60: 144.19 x24.98%
Ye2021:
06.30. :  33.98: 165.63: 428.06: 7.94%: 20.5%:  r2.58
09.03. :  33.28: 171.06: 453.08: 7.34%: 19.5%;  r2.65
=====

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hunter's Forecast from Sep. 2nd: - SEE BELOW

HUNTER: Ye2020: 9/02Forecast,  %

SPX —     3,756 :   4,537 >  5,000, +10.2%    
DJIA —  30,606 : 35,444 > 40,000, +12.9%
Nasdaq 12,888 : 15,331 > 18,000,  +17.4%
Gold —     1,894 :   1,810 >   2,500, +38.1%
UGL.  —   68.20 :  59.33 >   $104. +75.3%*
GDX.  —    36.02 :  32.50 >  60.00, +84.6%
GDXJ —    54.24 :  42.62 >   $100., +135%
Silver —    26.37 :  24.00 >   50.00,  +108%
AGQ   —    51.28 :  37.75 > 110.00, +191%*
SIL     —    45.62 :  40.03 >   75.00,  +87.3%
SILJ   —      6.31 :  13.34 >   35.00,  +162.%
====
* My own forecast, based on Hunter’s%

Stocks PEAKING?  Or Set for "spikey" Breakout?

SPY etc ... update:  10d:

SPY: $453.19, up 21.2% from YE-2020 ($373.88), vs: GLD/Gold ($178.36) > $169.25, -5.11%

7bGjnHx.gif

Precious Metals & Gold shares have lagged...

update: 10dUGL-$59.33, -13% from 68.20, GLD-$169.25, -5.1%, 178.36, since Ye2020

lQCZYis.gif

AGQ etc... fr. 2016: AGQ: $39.98

ScTXHmG.gif

Hunter's comments;

I see a lot of skepticism toward this equity market rally & even more toward the the metals & miners.I remain very bullish of equities & metals & expect sharply higher prices directly from here.SPX 5000,DJIA 40,000, Nasdaq 18,000, Gold 2500, silver 50, GDX 60, GDXJ 100,SIL 75,SILJ 35.

... Aug 30

The market is just beginning its final melt-up leg into a secular top. Cyclical stocks, including transports, are just emerging from a 4 month consolidation & will join growth/tech to drive the markets sharply higher. S&P to 5000+,DJIA to 40,000+,Nasdaq to 18,000 & RUT to 2900.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Q & A: What to Buy Now?

Q:   Your knowledge of the market and charts seems unusually Good

But interesting. Should I buy GDX?

A:   Maybe calls on GDX (or Gold stocks like Barrick, whose calls I have been buying recently),

Or swap some other (tech or large Cap) stocks into GDX. 

BTW, Mark Mobius is now recommending 10% exposure to Gold, away from stocks....

xx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is Gold About to Launch Into a Big Bull Market or Is This a Fake Out?

Where we look at short- and intermediate- and long-term price and momentum indicators along with volume profile to determine if the charts are bullish or bearish across the board equity and bond market to help prepare you for the trading week ahead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Buying gold shares might work in PHL too. 

APX.ph / Apex Mining .... 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / last P 1.51

Ixg3aAu.png

APX. 5yr:

mQA66Hw.gif

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

xx update:

x6lCTi4.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"GOLD IS DEAD" is a very Bullish headline! 

Now we need that on the cover of TIME.  Haha /

Is gold dead? Bitcoin price to hit levels we 'cannot imagine'- Ronald-Peter Stoeferle  >

https://youtu.be/QIHJgncRbbM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×