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INFLATION, CRB, Oil Cycle and Rates

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INFLATION, CRB & Oil Cycles. TYX C-10d: YTD: 10d: O-10d: +UGL wCrb: YTD: w/GDX: 10d/ Br.: spx

Have done A LOT of work on charts, etc.  You may find this thread Useful, and will use it in the FUTURE to monitor relevant prices, and see how much inflation pressure is in the system.  My current guess is that pressures will ease from here, and Gold will soar soon.

Inflation Drivers Up > Long term Rates Up.. now pushing thru 3%

USO / Oil etc... since Dec'21: XLE-etc: YTD: 10d: USO-only: OyrH: 88.32/ XLE-only: XyrH: 90.46 = wti:H $120 (133%)

VbEMp0l.gif

TYX/ 30yr T-Bond Yield: YTD-w/CRB: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/ 34.13=3.41%: ytd: 34.13/19.05= +79.2% -0.55% to: 6.15

Previous: 29.91=2.99%: ytd: 29.91/19.05= +57.0% up 1.09% to: 5.26

Lower USO, and CRB can "pull the rug" on the rise in LT interest rates, TYX

But Can Team Biden engineer a bigger drop in Oil that just a few days' dip

KGMpj89.gif < updated

UGL / 2x Gold: YTD-w/CRB w/Gdxj: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / 59.73/59.81= - 0.14% to: 5.26 / GLD: $170.96 > $172.76

ibCxB0b.gif

// OIL CYCLE may be peaking.  See the panel below. // target; about $90 for XLE, and USO, $120 for WTI

Note that: XLE has reached 100% of GLD in the past (2008 Peak) and now is only 50% of GLD/Gold.

XLE/ Oil Stocks : AllData: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / $85.53. Target > $90-100 (yrH: $90.46, 5.31.2022)

RAQnALP.gif

$CRB / 6mo: CRB.it: USO ti: Br.: Un.LdG : UNG: TYX / SCO: UGL: GLD: GDX: UDN: DXY: SPY: IWM: TNA o: Ndx: xsu o:

y45ibjT.png

GOLD to CRB : R- 5.79x

9INs4mp.png

Some might use that chart to say:  "GOLD doesn't protect you against inflation" (though very long term charts suggest otherwise.) 

Others will say:  "This just shows how cheap Gold is now."

USO etc - from 2009: mid-2015: Oct.2018-WJan'2020-D: 2yr: 1yr: 10d :: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9%

DvuO9WG.gif

USO etc - from mid-2015: 2yr: 1yr :: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9%

USO etc - from 2009: 2yr: 1yr: 10d :: USO: 85.46 / GLD: 172.85 = r-49.4% . at 5.22.22 . XLE: 88.53/uso= r103.6%

rnZt5Fl.gif

Ratio: USO: 80.58 / GLD: 171.91 = r-46.9%  5yr fixed: 3yr Below ::

gHL2r6t.png

WTI Crude to Gold : $00. / $00: Ratio: 5.97%

VarHfB4.png

US DOLLAR could be peaking here at/near 105-110.

DXY: All: 10yrW: 5yrD: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: UDN: 10d / Last: 102.93, YrH: 105.01

45y8H4v.gif

Update 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: UDN: 10d . $102 broken, with Heavy selling

oJ4SDpM.gif

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Mega-Bullish on Gold (and Gold shares) UGL wCrb: YTD: w/GDX: GLD-1yr: UGL 10d:  GLD: GDX 10d.

Gold is now very cheap vs. CRB too - see above: down -63.6% from 16.16x to 5.89x CRB (as Oil etc, rose)

eHJH082.gif

Gold's L.T. Cup & Handle : Explanations: Handle should end in top 1/3 or upper 1/2

( Here's a big bull, who cite the Cup and Handle formation ) :

Peter Grandich: The Most Bullish Precious Metals Setup in my 38-Year Career

"People who put their money in Bitcoin may find they have lost so much, they don't have enough left to come back to Gold."

"The Cup-and-Handle chart is the most bullish Gold chart I have seen in my 38 years" - at 18 minutes in.

He is also a big fan of Uranium, and more specifically on Cameco

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GOLD versus Housing -  Look for Home prices to fall

I like to look at the Ratio between Gold and PHM, one of the largest Homebuilder - now less than Half the peak ratio (91x)

0MlLMQQ.png

My opinion is that rising rates will hit Homebuilders more than it will Gold, or Gold shares

The Fed caused 'housing inflation,' this is when home prices will drop - Danielle DiMartino Booth

"the bidding wars have ended... the few honest realtors will tell you"

 

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"Gold outperforms CRB inflation in the Long term" - this chart from 2006 demonstrates that...

CRB -vs. GLD/Gold, DBA, and XLE ... from 2006: 2010: 2015: 2020 / 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: xx /xx (down from xx)

iW15ia1.gif

from 2015: 2019: 2020: Mar.2020: 10d / CRB: 28.10 (xx) , XLE: 81.77, DBA: 22.24, GLD: 172.03 ($1830)

myF4cjE.gif

From Mar.2020: 10d /. CRB Index (and Oil?) have been the top performers since the start of the Covid shock.

====   Feb’20:  Jul’20: 5.20.22: 2/20>5/22
CRB.it $13.72 : $11.53 : $28.10 : +104.8%
$CRB: 160.0e : 140.0e : 312.72 :  +95% E
XLE :   $45.27 : $36.03: $81.77 : + 80.6%
DBA :  $15.25 : $14.18: $22.24 : + 45.8%
GLD :  148.38 : 185.43:  172.03 : + 15.9%
Gold:   $1,586.: $1,976:  $1,847 : + 16.5%
Au/G:   r10.69.:  r10.66 : r10.74 :   =====

From end Feb'20, GLD/ Gold has been the weakest of these four.

uxKTvSP.gif

Oil stocks (XLE) have also outperformed CRB for most of the years since 2000

Ratio - down 63.6% from the Peak Ratio (16.16x) of Gold-to-CRB

MGKtjxW.png

 

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"MARCH 2020 was a BOOKMARK EVENT ! An End to the Debt trend."

And an End of the Bear Market in Oil and Interest Rates, and Bull Market in Bonds

8cNbhdz.png

There are two ways to build wealth in these crazy times: Inflation trade (commodities), and FEAR trade (USD)

Francis Hunt: The Dollar System is in its Death Throes

Here's the Long term chart on TLT/ Bonds:  All Data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yrD: 1yr: 10d /

06k5jyC.gif

"The Breaking Event will be Dollar Strength, not Dollar weakness"

Here's the Long term chart on DXY/ US Dollars:  All Data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yrD: 1yr: 10d /

vyJTXPY.gif

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INFLATION Drivers > Long term Rates

TYX / 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield ... 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: YTD-w/Crb: 10d / 29.96 = 3.00% 29.96/23.42= +27.9%

12 mo.chg: USO: 81.65/42.48= +92.2%., DBA: 22.24/18.38= +21.0%, DXY: 102.5/89.8= +14.1%, CRB: 28.04/15.59= +79.9%

eoMiwQd.gif

TYX / 30yr T-Bond Yield: YTD-w/Crb: 10d / 29.96 = 3.00% 29.96/23.42= +27.9%

8eLmYyC.gif

UGL / 2x Gold etf: YTD-w/CRB: w/Gdxj . 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / 59.33/64.86= -8.53% up in 12 mos.

Of5LkCB.gif

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RELIEF RALLY?  Inflation, & Higher Rates have been hitting stock prices ... YTD: Uso:

g9NK251.gif

Commodity price inflation is Hanging on so far.  But we have come to an important pitch point... Chart update.

This week's stock rally was Predictable, In fact I did predict it... a few days ago on a Viber chat, wave4 implies rally.

Rp2cNSs.png

Old 5yr chart above. /

UPDATE:  Friday's closes were:  SPY: 415.26, +2.45%,  IWM: 187.64, +2.69%.  TNA: 45.53, +8.10%

vfrfbhW.gif

May 13th, I posted the chart above, with the comment:  SPY: Last, 5.12: $392.53.  DayL: $385
"Blast away, Guys!  Please tell me why this count is wrong.
I actually welcome a debate on this"

( Ultimate Low for SPY was just a little lower at $380- ish, on May 20th. IWM low was May12th. )
We still do not know if the wave count will prove itself.  The big drop might have started already, and wave 5 might be in place.   Looks like it can test likely resistance at $425-430.  Only if it easily blasts thru there might we expect to revisit or beat the old highs/

A viber person seeing the SPY chart commented;  " ...  isn’t any reason for the bullish case."  

To answer, look at the chart for TYX - interest rates, as updated 5.31.2022, Last: 30.57 +0.85 = 3.057%

lOHzFCh.gif

DISAGREEING there is NO Reason for a Bull case, I noted that: TYX, 30 year rates are down from 3.28% > 2.97%.  But USO/Oil ETF continues higher with fresh highs yesterday at $85.52 (=wti crude: $115+.)  I don't see how Rates can keep coming down, and the stock rally gather momentum unless we see lower oil.  The Bulls will want that, and maybe we will hear some good news from Ukraine on peace talks... which seem overdue.

USO / Oil etc... since Dec'21: XLE-etc: USO-only: yrH: 88.32/ XLE-only: yrH: 90.46 = wti:$120 -- UPDATED! 5.31.22

Hdwc4Ss.gif

NYXusCG.gif

USO/ Oil etf: 85.46,+0.87, +1.03%  = WTI $115

eE6av5U.gif

10 yr, chart: IWM: 187.64, +2.69%.  TNA: 45.53, +8.10%,  IWM Low of 2022 was 168.90 (TNA:xx), on May12th: XSU :

CS2oIk0.gif

NOTE: that the IWM low came the day of my "prediction", ie a week earlier than SPY

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OIL Shares (XLE) vs GLD/Gold and GOLD shares (GDX):  XLE may be peak at/near $90

XLE. Oil Stock prices, since 1999.  I have a cyclical target of $90-100, and at $85.5, we are almost there.

Note that: XLE has reached 100% of GLD in the past (2008 Peak) and now is only 50% of GLD/Gold.

XLE : AllData: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / $85.53. Target > $90-100

RAQnALP.gif

XLE and GDX used to move together. Since 2014, have mostly moved inversely.

XLE vs. GLD CYCLES... from Jan.2007: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / xx > next Low: Dec.2023? (44 months?)

NwHz6yr.gif

CYCLES in XLE ... and Gold markers

? : - Date - : -XLE :  change :  GLD :  GDX :  X-G-r : Date#
L: ? Late’98: <20.? :     ==== :  0data: 00.00:  =====:
H: 05.18.01: 34.68:  +73.4%: 00.0e. 65.27x r00.0-:
L: 07.23.02: 19.80:    ===== : 00.0e: 59.24x r00.0-: 40-45?
H: 03.07.05: 44.61:  +125.%: 43.47: 98.95x r00.0-:
L: 05.16.05: 38.63:    ===== : 41.88: 78.73x r00.0-: 34m
H: 05.20.08: 90.39:  +134.%: 90.90: 48.72: r99.4%
L: 03.02.09: 38.12:    ===== : 90.93: 31.09: r41.9% 46m
H: 07.22.11: 79.73:  +109.%: 156.1: 60.76: r51.1%
L: 06.01.12: 62.04:    ===== : 157.5: 46.58: r39.4% 39m
H: 06.23.14: 101.3:  +63.3%: 126.9: 26.27: r79.8%
L: 01.20.16: 51.77:    ===== : 105.4: 12.85: r49.1% 41m
H: 05.21.18: 78.91:  +52.4%: 122.5: 22.33: r64.4%
L: 03.23.20: 23.57:   ===== : 146.3: 21.93: r16.01% 50m
E: 05.22.22: 90.00:  +276%?: 173.0:  ???? : nr.50%
L: 12/ 2023: 00.00:   ===== : 000.0:  ???? : r00.0-: 42.??
=====

Up Cycles: Total%= 210m /5, ave.: 42m = xxx%/7, ave: xx%

Dn Cycles: Total%= xx /#, ave.: Mo= xx, ave: xx

NturHNm.png

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Lumber / Random Length Lumber Continuous Contract .. update / Last: 700.70 + 5.60

tpyACzA.gif

Lumber Prices Slump With Rising Interest Rates
Prices shed more than 50% since March, when the Fed began raising borrowing costs to slow inflation 

(But no break in OIL yet.  WTI is now $117) *

Lumber had tripled!

VIDEO : How the Pandemic Made Lumber America's Hottest Commodity

> https://www.wsj.com/articles/lumber-prices-slump-with-rising-interest-rates-11653835230

... By last spring, lumber cost more than twice the prepandemic high. Now, two-by-four prices are flashing caution.
Lumber futures for July delivery ended Friday at $695.10 per thousand board feet, down 52% from a high in early March. On-the-spot wood prices have plunged, too. Pricing service Random Lengths said Friday that its framing composite index, which tracks cash sales, fell about 12% last week to end at $794. That is down from $1,334 in March, just before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2018. 
The Fed raised rates again this month and is expected to continue to lift borrowing costs to slow consumption and tame inflation. The housing market is expected to shoulder the load. The central bank is pursuing an interest rate that will slow the surge in home prices by trimming the number of buyers without triggering a painful economic slowdown.
*Crude PricesBRENT has hit $123! : WTI 118.16+3.09+2.69% on 5.30.22

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OIL REVERSAL !  update: O-10d:

8uFA6qT.png

VIBER comment: USO / Oil etc saw a reversal! Up only 0.01 to $85.47   ( wti=$115.23-0.05) after having been as high as $88.32,

That's 3.2% below the Day's High, and a big reversal like that can be a topping signal.

Head-fake for stocks?

US stocks slip after rallying last week as rising oil prices renew inflation fears

Oil surged to a two-month high of $123 Tuesday after the European Union agreed to ban most Russian crude and China eased up on its COVID restrictions.

   (Haha !  Old News now! )

WTI now just clinging to an uptrend near $115 ... update

NVwtwwm.png

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GASOLINE (unleaded) is running ahead of almost everything - going into the summer Driving season

Quick Link - update : $4.20 / $86 = 4.88% > Resistance: 4.9%

QsADhkH.gif

Unleaded Gasoline - etc ... 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 3mo: YTD: 10d/ $4.21 / uso: $87.25 = r-4.83%. Resistance: r-4.9%

iMRAYQv.gif

UnL.Gasoline ...2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 3mo: YTD: 10d/ $4.21 / uso: $87.25 = r-4.83%. Resistance: r-4.9%

4RvvP6M.gif

UnL.Gasoline ...5yr: 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 3mo: YTD: 10d/ $4.21 / uso: $87.25 = r-4.83%. Resistance: r-4.9%

Vfs8SzK.gif

GASOline. RBOB ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d /

BpM1bQ1.gif

gCP1764.gif

Ratio: $Gaso / USO: 4.80%. Resistance: r-4.9%

68xxzrN.png

Ratio: $Gaso / $WtiCrude

nyzGOGj.png

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US OIL REFINING and Marketing stocks

VLO / Valero Energy ... AllData: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr/ Last: $133.62 +1.07, +0.81% / 1yr R: L:x, H; x
EBeBdl2.gif

  • PBF Energy Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A PBF : chart: $35.48, +$1.06 : +3.08%

    PBF Energy, Inc. engages in the operation of a petroleum refiner and supplies unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feed stocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the... Read More

    Returns 1-year + 87.27%,  5-year: +14.75%,  P/E Ratio (TTM): 6.83
  • Targa Resources Corp TRGP : chart: $76.68, +$1.61 : +2.15%

    Targa Resources Corp. provides midstream natural gas and natural gas liquids services. It also provides gathering, storing, and terminaling crude oil, and storing, terminaling, and selling refined... Read More

    Returns 1-year + 87.16%,  5-year: +17.86%,  P/E Ratio (TTM): N/a
  • CVR Energy Inc CVI : chart: $36.77, +$0.47 : +1.29%

    JxK1CGM.gif

    CVR Energy, Inc. is a holding company. The firm engages in the provision of petroleum refining and marketing business. It operates through the following segments: Petroleum and Nitrogen Fertilizer... Read More

    Returns 1-year + 72.70%,  5-year: +18.71%,  P/E Ratio (TTM): 67.56
  • Marathon Petroleum Corp MPC : chart: $104.27, +$0.36 : +0.35%

    X7dpI2U.gif

    Marathon Petroleum Corp. is an independent company, which engages in the refining, marketing, and transportation of petroleum products in the United States. It operates through the following segments... Read More

    Returns 1-year + 68.67%,  5-year: +18.70%,  P/E Ratio (TTM): 23.79
  • Valero Energy Corp. VLO : chart: $133.62, +$1.07 : +0.81%

    Valero Energy Corp. engages in the manufacture and marketing of transportation fuels and other petrochemical products. It operates through the following business segments: Refining, Ethanol and... Read More

    Returns 1-year + 61.71%,  5-year: +21.11%,  P/E Ratio (TTM): 33.08

  • Western Midstream Partners LP - Unit WES : chart: $28.61, +$0.11 : +0.31%

    Western Midstream Partners LP owns, operates, acquires and develops midstream energy assets. It engages in the business of gathering, processing, compressing, treating, and transporting natural gas... Read More

    Returns 1-year + 43.78%,  5-year- 4.46%,  P/E Ratio (TTM): 11.48

    ===

    GASOline exposure

    Flavita Hoffman- on Youtube comment
    If you make $15 an hour, you bring home on average, $9 per hour after taxes and insurance. Most people work 40 hours per week, and according to the department of Energy, Americans purchase 40 gallons of gas a week minimum. This means after you pay for gas each week, you bring home roughly $4 an hour. Anyone that makes minimum wage, is only paying for gas, that's it. When everyone voted for Biden because he promised wages of $15 an hour, did you think things like gas would stay at $2 per gallon. You now make less money today than you did 2 years ago, and if you make minimum wage, in another few weeks, you will start to pay to go to work Congratulations, your uneducated vote has lowered your household net income. Broken promises and empty words from Biden and our government is all we hear.

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SPY: Fibonacci Moving Averages really work! 

SPY 5yr: 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: Last: 410.54 - 6.85, z% ... Fibos: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987

siWCOaJ.gif

SPY 5yr: 3yr:

ADGZ5Bt.gif

10d - Intraday Chart : Adjustments to MA's ... Fibos: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, (x XX):

mfNQwOf.gif

All-Log: 10yrL: 5yrW : Longer Term Weekly Charts :

Adj. to MA's : 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987 / (4.85) = Weekly MA's: 18, 30, 48, 78, 126, 204, 330, 534

XOWYpOk.gif

All-Log:

8a2JY0V.gif

===

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IWM / iShares Russell 2000 .. 5yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d: xsu / Last: 187.06, range: 168.90 to 244.46 (-31% to yr.L)

I3auyOq.gif

TZA &vix. TZA: 2yrL: 1yr: 6mo: Ytd: 10d / 36.63, 21.61-51.67:

q3trTJn.gif

TZA: 2yrL: 1yr: 6mo: Ytd: 10d / 36.63, 21.61-51.67:

m5YMzqR.gif

TZA &vix. 1yr: 6m: Ytd: 10d : Ytd: 10d/ TZA: 2yrL: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / 36.63, 21.61-51.67: VIX: 24.79, 14.10 to 38.94

9hc1X4n.gif

4yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d: xsu / Last: 187.06

rIErRPN.gif

This 4 year chart shows the bottom near $170 clearly, when you but it together with the other, longer term charts.

Current Rally up to about $195 or $205 looks likely.  I entered my own options trade at about $190

10yrW10yrD: 5yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: 187.06, range: 168.90 to 244.46

RkCOHOd.gif

AllData:

Ixyb6Zl.gif

===

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KIM DOTCOM's FEARS. Impact coming in Bonds and Interest Rates

$2M DEBT per US taxpayer?  This is NOT going to get repaid. 

Inflation and Hyperinflation seem inevitable until money has lost so much value that the VALUE of the debt per taxpayer makes some sense again.  Will the Dollar go to 1% or 0.1% of Current Real value?  Maybe.  And how many jobs and companies will disappear as that change happens?

TLT / Bonds... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last $113.89 near  YrL: $112.69 .. TYX /LT rates: 1yr: 3.19%, YrH: 32.77

IsnlW7w.gif

Money printing, politics and poor energy policy - have fueled rises in inflation, and Oil Prices in particular

TYX (31.91= 3.19%) / USO ($88.39), XLE ($89.41) ..  5yr: 3yr: from 1/2017YTD: 10d = T/X Ratio: 35.7%

Vrmwko7.gif

TYX (31.91= 3.19%) / USO ($88.39), XLE ($89.41) ..  5yr: 3yr: from 1/2017:  "The GAME is not over."

UlrSkqd.gif

The Big moves come in waves, and I think we might soon see a pause in interest rates, and Energy prices. 

But even if we get a breathing spell, the game is far from over

RATIO : TYX / XLE over 5 years!

xmfJE9o.png

Out of Control DEBT and Money Printing:    

FUghRVzUAAA4GWX.jpg

The reason why the US got away with it for so long is because USD is the worlds reserve currency. Nations everywhere hold USD as a secure asset. So when the US Govt prints trillions it's robbing Americans and the entire world. The biggest theft in history.
The problem is that this has been going for decades and there’s now no way to fix it. The reality is that the US has been bankrupt for some time and what’s coming is a nightmare: Mass poverty and a new system of control. Let me explain why this isn’t just doom and gloom talk.
Total US debt is at $90 trillion. US unfunded liabilities are at $169 trillion. Combined that’s $778,000 per US citizen or $2,067,000 per US tax payer 🤯

Remember, the only way the US Government can operate now is by printing more money. Which means hyperinflation is inevitable.
The total value of ALL companies listed on the US stock market is $53 trillion. The real value is much lower because the US has been printing trillions to provide interest free loans to investment banks to pump up the stock market. It’s a scam.

Most of the $53 trillion is air.   > https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1533524778610348032.html

 

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NO BREAK yet in Inflation - even today the upwards trend in CRB continues

CRB (european trading) ... vs. USO/Oil, TYX/Rates, and XLE/Oil Stocks...  C-10d, YTD, Dec.2021: 1yr: 2yr:

V9HoYix.gif

YTD, Oct.2021: 1yr: 2yr:

olPw7Qk.gif

THREE BELLWETHERs: Oil (stocks), Ags, and GLD/Gold ... from 2008

Q7oNwZl.gif

Another from 2010: Oct 2018 : USO: $90.04, XLE: $92.08, DBA: $22.11, GLD: $172.94

vVtUCgW.gif

Two Inflation bells/ bellwethers :

DBA/ Ag Comms., & XLE/ Oil stocks. fr. 2006: 2010: mid-2012: 22.11, 92.08 = ratio: 4.16x .. vs.r-3.04x Norm

Q5GiJCJ.gif

DBA/ Ag Comms., & XLE/ Oil stocks. fr. 2006:

VvyUu3r.gif

XLE was "stuck" near 3.0x DBA for years.  No more, as it broke out.  Now: xx

QFwfwej.png

 

 

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FOOD - OIL / (DBA/Ags - Brent) ... benchmarks to replace "two bells" just above

Because : "Everybody can relate to Brent Crude as a key benchmark for oil"

Brent - DBA.. fr. Dec'18: Jun'20: 10yr: 5yr: 4yr: 2yr D: 1yr: Ytd: 10d/ $120.90 / $22.11 = r-5.47x

spx8mte.gif

4yr: 2yr: YTD: 10d / Last: $120.90 / $22.11 = r-5.47x

UfeBDfQ.gif

10yr: 5yr: 4yr: 2yr D: 1yr: Ytd: 10d/ $120.90 / $22.11 = r-5.47x

TQ1IZkq.gif

Brent to DBA Ratio: $120.90 / $22.11 = r-5.47x

qz5eWUc.png

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OIL / Oilshare Options

Etf : Spot/day: Mo.X.Near : adj. : Pct./ ImpV
XLE : $92.08:
    038d :July.15: $92P-4.25: 4.29. 4.66%/
    038d :July.15: $90P-3.38: 4.38. 4.87%/
    073d :Aug.19: $92P-5.65: 5.69. 6.18%/
    136d :Oct. 21: $92P-7.92:  7.96. 8.65%/
USO: $90.04:
    038d. July: $90P-4.40: 4.42. 4.91%/
    038d :July: $95P-4.40: 4.42. 4.91%/
    136d :Oct.: $90P-9.55: 9.57. 4.91%/
SCO: $10.00:

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Nutrient (NTR) gave early warnings of turns in Commodities. It is a potash/ fertlizer stock

NTR ... 5yr: 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: Ytd: 10d / Now sliding off a spike peak. Down -24% from $117.25 to $89.24.

update - from 6/14/19 > 6.13.22 : NTR: $84.27 / USO: $90.36 = r-93.3% , XLE already slid from $90 > $84.08 (100.2%)

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5yr: 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: Ytd: 10d /

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Ratio: ntr-$89.24 / xle-$90.24 = r-98.9%

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Nutrien to increase its potash production capability in response to the uncertainty of supply from Eastern Europe

As for the company's nitrogen portfolio, Nutrien said it is advancing previously announced brownfield expansion projects that are expected to add approximately 500,000 tonnes of capacity by the end of 2025 and further enhance the energy efficiency and product mix of our plants.

Importantly, Nutrien said it is planning to repurchase an additional $2 billion of shares, for a total of approximately $4 billion of repurchases in 2022, under its existing normal course issuer bid.

This is expected to increase the company's total return of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases to approximately $5 billion in 2022.

Nutrien is the world's largest provider of crop inputs and services, playing a critical role in helping growers increase food production in a sustainable manner.

> more: https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-06-09/Nutrien-to-increase-its-potash-production-capability-in-response-to-the-uncertainty-of-supply-from-Eastern-Europe.html

NTR/XLE RATIO: Option Play?

Buy PUTS on XLE   : Sep.$90P: $6.57 /be: $83.43, Sep.$95P: $0.00 /be: $00.00

Buy CALLS on NTR: Sep.$90C : $7.60 /be: $97.60, Sep.$85C: $0.00 /be: $00.00

Locks in... 

ntr-$89.24 / xle-$90.24 = r-98.9%, vs, mid-Expected future target of 1.16 > +17%

Strike to strike : R-1.00. and

All-in to All-in.  : R-1.17.  and

Etf : Spot/day:  Mo.X.  Near :  as-% : TV/.d: ImpV
NTR : $89.24: C
    098d :Sep. 16: $90C-$7.60:  8.52%: $  7.8: 43.3%
    098d :Sep. 16: $85C-10.30:  11.5%: $ 6.2: 44.6%
    189d :Dec. 16: $90C-10.65:  11.9%: $  5.6: 43.2%
XLE : $90.24: P
    098d :Sep. 16: $90P-$6.57:  7.28%: $  6.7: 35.1%
    098d :Sep. 16: $95P-$8.75:  9.70%: $  3.8: 30.6%
    128d :Oct.  21: $90P-$7.50:  8.31%: $  5.9: 33.2%
USO: $90.04: P
    0??d :Aug. 19: $90P- ??? :
    128d :Oct. 21: $90P-$8.78:   0.00%:  $  6.9: 43.2%
    128d :Oct. 21: $95P-11.90:   0.00%:  $  5.4: 44.5%
========

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Mega-Bullish on Gold /#2 (and Gold shares) UGL wCrb: YTD: w/GDX: GLD-1yr: UGL 10d:  GLD: GDX 10d.

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                     - - - "wake up and smell the coffee" - - -

GBS/Gold Update: ALL: 5yr: to 6.15.22

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ALL: 5yr: 6.15.22

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Orig.Post: Gold is now very cheap vs. CRB too - see above: down -63.6% from 16.16x to 5.89x CRB (as Oil etc, rose)

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Why Food Inflation Is Only Getting Started

Capitalist Exploits's Photo
by Capitalist Exploits
Friday, Jun 17, 2022 - 17:49

Take a look at this:

Chart of Food Production vs Food Prices

The US has just experienced an 8.8% increase in food prices. The problem (and there are many, actually) is that this doesn’t take into account the spiraling costs farmers are now experiencing.

 

It’s worth remembering that because farmers pay upfront and only recoup their expenses at the point of sale/harvest months later, all the opex they’ve experienced has a lag.

This lag is dependent on produce but certainly, we’re looking at a tsunami of food inflation 12 to 18 months out.

Then there is the fuel and fertilizer. You’ll hopefully recall our bullish call on both fuel and fertilizer in order to play the entire food cost explosion that is now kicking off. Fuel and fertilizer together are the two largest input costs to farmers, typically exceeding in aggregate 50% of their total costs.

Here’s diesel:

U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Prices 2022

Then we have fertilizer, itself a by-product of natural gas:

A chart of natural gas prices

Fertilizer has tripled and in some cases quadrupled. What are governments doing to “fix” this? Playing with interest rates. How cute!

Sticking with supply-side economics…

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INFLATION BELLS, with CRB & USO

CRB + Three Bells... since 2020:

s9XSnEU.gif

FOUR BELLS... since 2020:  showing the "unnatural" collapse in USO,

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Another from 2010: Oct 2018 : USO: $90.04, XLE: $92.08, DBA: $22.11, GLD: $172.94

THREE BELLWETHERs: Oil (stocks), Ags, and GDX/Gold stocks ... from 2007:

vrOuFgH.gif

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Panel#Y, page 1

SIL: $28.45 . Abt,.44%vol
$P:  10.2022, 120d:  01.2023, 000d :  01.2024, 000d:
== Oct…
35: 0.00-0.00/ 0.00: 0.00-0.00/ 0.00: 4.40-4.80/$4.60
30: 2.30-2.45/$2.38: 3.20-3.50/$3.35: 5.50-6.30/$5.90:
28: 3.10-3.40/$3.35: 4.10-4.40/$4.25: 0.00-0.00/ 0.00:
25:  4.90-5.10/$5.00: 5.70-6.00/$5.85: 8.20-8.50/$8.35:
==
GDXJ: $35.99 . Abt,.45%vol
$C:  09/2022, 085d:  01/2023, 211d :  01/2024, 575d:
40: 1.58-1.71/$1.65: 3.30-3.50/$3.40: 6.45-6.65/$6.55:
35: 3.60-3.80/$3.70: 5.30-5.65/$5.48: 8.45-8.60/$8.53:
30: 7.00-7.25/$7.13: 8.30-8.65/$8.48: 10.7- 11.3/10.98:
25: 11.3-11.6/11.45: 12.1-12.5/12.30: 13.7- 14.5/14.08:
==

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Panel#Z, page 1

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