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Buying Specifically in Carib.Coast, Tung Chung (Lantau)


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Buying Specifically in Caribbean Coast

 

tko8.jpg

Caribbean Coast prices - Centaline Index - at Nov. 2013 : CC-transactions

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Close-up / source: Centadata-CC

Updated thru May 2009 : other phases
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Phase1 only
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Here's my attempt to sketch in some possible tower locations within 55B.

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It looks like phase one's seaview could be well-blocked

/see: http://caribbeancoast.org/forum/index.php/topic,291.0.html

Public Housing, next to phase 1:
http://www.districtcouncils.gov.hk/island_..._2009_09_EN.pdf
= = = = =

Hello,

After following DR Bubb's posts over the years in housepricecrash.co.uk, I have come over in seek of a HK property!!!! Even registered on their website, but couldn't msg anyone.... laugh.gif

So have decided to leave there, don't think there's much point staying, as its pretty obvious UK housing is heading for a fall.....instead of being negative all the time, I have decided to be positive, hence thinking about buying a flat in HK purely for investment purposes.

My budget is around $2.5MHK

After following DB Bubb's posts and looking into:

http://www.geoexpat.com/forum/living-tung-...g-t10808p9.html
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/country.php?id=86

I am convinced that HK is heading into a boom, you got to put your money where your mouth is,
so I am pretty determined to purchase in HK, despite being based in UK..
...which may pose a bit of a problem in itself....

Anyway, I am specifically looking to buy in CC, the thing which I don't get is looking at :

http://www.midland.com.hk/eng/

advertising Caribbean Coast - High Floor Block 5

which doesn't tell me which floor its on, is it furnished??? It has me pretty stumped....
I would appreciate if someone can point me in the right direction, on the meaning of phases of build/which blocks are best, etc.....

I am thinking of paying a visit to HK when I am also going to be visiting my home country Taiwan (UK Passport holder)

I am in the middle of reading through the relevant HK posts....

Many thanks.

= = = = =

MAP, near MTR Station : http://www.china-mike.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Lantau_tung_chung_MTR_station_map.jpg

Transaction History

=======
Centaline.... :: http://www.centadata.com/eptest.aspx?type=...o=tr&page=0
Midland....... :: http://proptx.midland.com.hk/propTx/index....teId=E000000070

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Buying Specifically in Caribbean Coast

 

Link into this thread : http://tinyurl.com/TungChung

====================================

 

advertising Caribbean Coast - High Floor Block 5

 

which doesn't tell me which floor its on, is it furnished??? It has me pretty stumped....I would appreciate if someone can point me in the right direction, on the meaning of phases of build/which blocks are best, etc.....

I am thinking of paying a visit to HK when I am also going to be visiting my home country Taiwan (UK Passport holder)

I am in the middle of reading through the relevant HK posts....

 

OK.

I'll help if I can.

 

There are 4 phases in CC: 1, 2, 3, - and 5.

 

Block #5 (is in phase 1), and phase 1 trades at a discount to the other phases.

It is older and further from the MTR, so that makes sense. I reckon that you can buy properties

for something like hk$2,500 - 2,700 in phase 1, depending on the floor and layout.

Really nice flats there might be even more expensive. And prices are currently rising every

week, by as much as 1% a week right now.

 

The View from a phase 1 - G flat

05bv8.jpg

 

(This one is for sale. See : Tower 1, 3 BR, 1050 sf )

 

Do you know about the plans to build on the coast, between CC and the sea?

That will block some views, especially in phase one, which might have 50 floor tower in front

of it. To the immediate right of the view above.

 

There's loads more info in the other thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=1450

 

...including this map - note development coming near phase 1:

phases.jpg

 

But this makes a start anyway. I can put you in touch with one or two agents here.

Do you speak Cantonese? Putonhua?

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I speak Putonhua aka mandarin...

 

There are agents who speak English and Putonhua.

Wilson at Centaline (between CS and the Novotel) is a mainlander, and may have a different perspective

than some other broker. I wonder how many mainland buyers we are seeing in TC now.

 

Most foreigners may find Karen To at Midland near the MTR most helpful - her English is good.

She was our agent on our latest purchase

 

Jamie Lia at Centaline in CC did a good job for us, in buying two properties, and we consult her

regularly about the market. Her english is so-so, but she has some colleagues to help her.

 

Looking at the map, I am guessing that the block 6 7 will be ok, as theres a school right in front of them....no more developing there??

 

Eventually, new buildings will be erected between CC and the seacoast.

The plan is for a 20 story hotel to the left (when facing the sea), and taller buildings to the right

of up to 50 stories. These will probably not be completed for 5-6 years, and so new supply will be

limited. But all the views will not be protected.

 

We live in a high floor (in the 50's) in tower 16, and so we think we have a good chance of retaining

almost all of our view. Lower floors can also be good, if they have a nice view of the pool.

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More evidence of the gap between phase 1 and phase 5 (towers 15&16):

 

"1258 sq ft flat for sale - Unit H located at Twr 2.

Spent hundreds thousand in decoration. Come with a 42" plasma TV and all teak furnitures. Direct from owner.

Asking $3.3m for a quick sell" : here

 

Similar flats (but with balcony) on a high floor in 15/16 : hk$4 -4.1 million

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  • 4 weeks later...

Hello all,

 

Thank you Doctor Bubb for the informed posts, much appreciated.

 

apologies for the late reply...had a car accident and then flu which has kept me pretty inactive.....

 

more research over the last few days has meant I can only afford upto $1.9m HKD...as my contractor salary of £1k per month means I can't borrow much....noted was also the huge deposit i need.....around £40k (which includes all fees)

 

Below is what I took from Bank of China for figures:

 

Max Property Price: 1940187

Max Loan: 1358131

 

Total Downpayment 629858

(inc stamp duty, legal fees, mortgage deeds, deposit, etc)

 

Does the figures look reasonable in terms of amount lent??

 

Can someone suggest a few links for mortgage lenders and estate agencies please...I've looked at http://www.midland.com.hk/eng/ but would like to be able to view a few others....

 

Many thanks.

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more research over the last few days has meant I can only afford upto $1.9m HKD...as my contractor salary of £1k per month means I can't borrow much....noted was also the huge deposit i need.....around £40k (which includes all fees)

 

WAH,

Have you got any Hong Kong income?

If not, you may find it difficult to borrow. HK banks are much more conservative than those in the UK.

You will also need to have a bank account, and a lawyer in HK.

Will this be feasible?

 

If not, you might consider buying a share with solid property backing whose share price does not

reflect it (yet). This is one way i am playing myself

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Dr Bubb

 

 

Are the apartments at CC easy to rent? Do you hear the aircraft, even with soundproofing in the apartment given the close proximity of the airport?

 

Surely if you were investing a low block flat would generate a better yield than a high one given the much lower price albeit with a lower rental?

 

 

How much more commercial development will there be in that area?

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Dr Bubb

Are the apartments at CC easy to rent? Do you hear the aircraft, even with soundproofing in the apartment given the close proximity of the airport?

 

I heard (barely) an airplane fly past as I was reading you post. Some planes are louder than this.

You get used to the sound after a while, and it is far enough away, the bother is not great.

 

The commercial development is continuing at the airport. A big plus might be the ICC, at Kowloon station,

which will have about 20,000 people working in offices when it finishes in 2010 (?)

It is only a 18 minute MTR ride away from Tung Chung station

 

I still prefer the higher flats, though they are more expensive. The rent faster for a bit more,

and should sell more easily at higher prices.

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Doctor Bubb,

 

I don't have any HK income at all...solely based in the UK. I was thinking the moment my current contract is up, I would visit my family in Taiwan and then HK also, visit the banks, EA, et al to see if it would be possible to sort everything out....

 

hmmm....as for shares, well I gambled the lot on Gartmore China Fund, on the sole fact that its booming, and the government has more control then ur average free country, so no fall until the 08 olympics....

 

would appreciate some tips on the property shares you've spoken about.....

 

Thanks Doctor....

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Doctor Bubb,

 

I don't have any HK income at all...solely based in the UK. I was thinking the moment my current contract is up, I would visit my family in Taiwan and then HK also, visit the banks, EA, et al to see if it would be possible to sort everything out....

 

Let me know when you are here. We can have a coffee, and I will intro you to an EA or two, if you like.

They may be able to offer some suggestions on the finance side, but it is a bit tricky.

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I was planning on coming in Jan, but I just found out today that my contract has now been extended til the beginning of Feb, so will have to march on until then with the job....

 

As for intro EA, that would be great...

 

Will hold you to that coffee when I make it to HK, Doctor Bubb!!

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I was planning on coming in Jan, but I just found out today that my contract has now been extended til the beginning of Feb, so will have to march on until then with the job....

 

As for intro EA, that would be great...

 

Will hold you to that coffee when I make it to HK, Doctor Bubb!!

 

Too bad, I think CC prices will be alot higher then.

The release of the Mid-rises in Dec or January (?) might bring plenty of excitement to TC,

and could easily bring a jump in prices across the board.

 

It is now impossible to find a 2BR below hk$2 million in phases 2,3, or 4.

 

I'd be delighted to have a cup of coffee with any GEI member willing to visit TC

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Too bad, I think CC prices will be alot higher then.

The release of the Mid-rises in Dec or January (?) might bring plenty of excitement to TC,

and could easily bring a jump in prices across the board.

 

It is now impossible to find a 2BR below hk$2 million in phases 2,3, or 4.

 

I'd be delighted to have a cup of coffee with any GEI member willing to visit TC

 

Well, I've been refused mortgage, citing an overseas income is unacceptable for a mortgage application.... <_<

 

the next port of call is a poster i saw from HSBC, saying to offer me a mortgage here buying abroad.......well update you!!

 

Meanwhile, the house prices carry on rising!! :rolleyes:

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I have been looking for another property and I can confirm -

 

It is definitely a sellers market here right now, with little chance to buy below offers,

or negotiate better terms

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no i can't get a hk mortgage unless i plan to rent there for 6 months....

or get a job there.....

 

Sorry to hear that.

And the HK Builders have already had a great run, so I cannot recommend buying them now.

 

I am looking at a few stocks traded in HK, with "hidden HK property exposures"

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  • 1 month later...

(from HPC, a thread about a Moneyweek Mention ):

 

Anyway, on Hong Kong Island the pecking order would be:

 

1. Peak (uber rich - rents in the neighbourhood of £150K+ per annum)

2. Southside Island - Repulse Bay / Stanley (damned expensive & the stomping ground of company directors / professionals)

3. Midlevels / Happy Valley (desirable upscale neighbourhoods, affluent)

4. Pokfulam (very similar to #3.)

5. Everywhere else on the HK Island depending upon their proximity to Central.

 

Then there are the Kowloon & the New Territories which likewise have their desirable neighbourhoods (though nothing like the Peak!!).

 

In my first stay in Hong Kong, I lived on the Peak (Barker Road, no.41) for 4 years : 1980-84

I am now using my own money, rather than a bank "housing allowance", I want value-for-money, and unless

you particularly want to live surrounded by pampered expats, you wont find that on the Peak or anywhere

on HK Island IMHO.

 

I'm used to being a "pioneer", and dont mind putting up with some isolation, remoteness, and the occasional

uncomprehending stare to enjoy the various benefits of pioneering.

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Another good news for your investments in Caribbean coast : Citibus just added (starting Dec 10th 2007) a bus stop at Cathay City on their bus S56, so it's now possible to go directly from Caribbean coast (phase 1 & 2) to Cathay City within few minutes. This is very important for Cathay Pacific Staff which represent a significant part of Caribbean Coast population.

 

I will also post this on the CC thread

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  • 3 months later...

ESTATE AGENT RAMPING... but will the market pay attention? I think not

Here's Anne-Marie Sage, as quoted in Square Foot:
"Rental allowances will have to increase as the overall market is up 17.6 percent since this time last year."

I think not, Ms A-M Sage. The market doesnt work like that, as you should well know!

What you may not want to see is there's a global financial crisis developing, and many bankers based
in London and New York, are FIGHTING for assignments in Hong Kong, where they hope to spend a few
safe years until the troubles blow over in London and New York.

What do you think their cash-strapped employers will do?
Freeze or cut the generous housing allowances that they have been paying.


I'm betting on the mass market, Ms Sage. There you will see the benefit of:

+ Lower rates, making it cheaper to buy than to rent
+ Rising mass market rents, which will start to catch up with the over-bloated luxury sector
+ Affordability still means something in the mass market
+ The supply of new hosuing will be low (under 11,000 units) for the second year in a row
+ International investors are waking up to the appeal of HK's mass market

Give it a few months. I cannot guarantee I am right. But the programmed complacency of these "

international property agents" is rather maddening !

Here she is saying:
"On the peak you are now looking at a rental of hk$40 to hk$64 psf; on the South Side:
HK$33 to HK$59 psf; and in mid-levels hk$34 to hk$53 psf."


If I was a HR person for a Bear Stearns ex-employee, eager to take a job and my bank,

I might say: "Go to Tung Chung where you can rent 1,220 sf for hk$15 or less.

...That is. assuming you want the job, of course."

Meantime, Ms. Sage will go on saying:
"Proximity to good schools is one reason high-flyers favour the top three locales.
A sense of belonging is another. Particularly when they first move to HK, foreigners want
to live in well-established expat areas."


Well, I'm seeing a new international school open up in DB. And there are more foreigners
every week in TC.

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  • 2 weeks later...

...as also posted on the HK property thread...

 

DrBubb,

this is my first post but I've been following your threads for a while now.

Welcome to GEI

 

A quick question: how do I weigh up between the "Impending property marketing correction" camp and the "Great fundamental demand growth" camp in making a buy decision?

 

Quick tip : Focus on rents:

Are they still rising, and what are people doing to hedge?

 

I've got a chance to pick up a TC Carib Coast deal for around 2800HK$ psft - a smaller 700 sft place. I want to buy it strictly to hedge against rising rentals ...

 

Yes. I see your point.

TC-CC probably affords the cheapest decent "expat-friendly" place to rent within Hong Kong,

where you can commute to Central within 50-60 minutes door-to-door (the MTR rise is 27 minutes)

 

...would probably look to re-sell it in 6 months' time. Is that too short a timeframe?

 

Why sell after six months? What will you be trying to achieve with that?

If rents at CC keep rising, and interest rates do not shoot up, I reckon the CC will rise as fast

or faster than rents here. Some factors that may help keep the rental rises coming:

 

+ The excess supply at CC has been absorbed. About 95%+ of the flats are occupied

 

+ The construction work is nearly finished, and the quality of life here is good, more expats are moving in

 

+ The ICC (in Kowloon Central) will open phase one around mid-year, and some working there will

... undoubtedly find their way to TC and CC. If they have a choice of a small 2BR in Olympic, something

... smaller in midlevels, or a large 3BR (A or H) flat in CC, I reckon many will accept the slightly longer

... commute, and come to CC

 

+ The Macau bridge will help CC long term, but shorter term, you may find some engineering, and design

... management moving in here, as they work on the construction of the bridge

 

Do you think Tung Chhung will be the hardest hit when the market bottoms out?

 

Given the factors that I have listed above, why should TC fall?

It is not like 2006, when there was more cheap supply coming, and the building was less than 50%

occupied. Yes, there is talk of a new building phase, but that supply is years away. And, yes, the

500+ midrise flats will be sold soon. But they are likely to be offered at a HIGHER price than CC,

so i do not see how they can force prices down. Instead, the marketing of that property may attract

more people TC, and they will see what good value it offers. That's exactly what happened when

La Rossa came on the market.

 

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...as also posted on the HK property thread...

 

 

Welcome to GEI

 

 

 

Quick tip : Focus on rents:

Are they still rising, and what are people doing to hedge?

 

 

 

Yes. I see your point.

TC-CC probably affords the cheapest decent "expat-friendly" place to rent within Hong Kong,

where you can commute to Central within 50-60 minutes door-to-door (the MTR rise is 27 minutes)

 

 

 

Why sell after six months? What will you be trying to achieve with that?

If rents at CC keep rising, and interest rates do not shoot up, I reckon the CC will rise as fast

or faster than rents here. Some factors that may help keep the rental rises coming:

 

+ The excess supply at CC has been absorbed. About 95%+ of the flats are occupied

 

+ The construction work is nearly finished, and the quality of life here is good, more expats are moving in

 

+ The ICC (in Kowloon Central) will open phase one around mid-year, and some working there will

... undoubtedly find their way to TC and CC. If they have a choice of a small 2BR in Olympic, something

... smaller in midlevels, or a large 3BR (A or H) flat in CC, I reckon many will accept the slightly longer

... commute, and come to CC

 

+ The Macau bridge will help CC long term, but shorter term, you may find some engineering, and design

... management moving in here, as they work on the construction of the bridge

 

 

 

Given the factors that I have listed above, why should TC fall?

It is not like 2006, when there was more cheap supply coming, and the building was less than 50%

occupied. Yes, there is talk of a new building phase, but that supply is years away. And, yes, the

500+ midrise flats will be sold soon. But they are likely to be offered at a HIGHER price than CC,

so i do not see how they can force prices down. Instead, the marketing of that property may attract

more people TC, and they will see what good value it offers. That's exactly what happened when

La Rossa came on the market.

 

I guess it all boils down to whether you believe in the "wisdom of the crowd" or resist the "herd mentality".

Lemme explain.

Talked to friends and the sentiment (as also mentioned in Geoexpat threads) is that the market is in a peak - a crash is imminent. So, to do a Buffet, it's time to be greedy as everybody seems fearful.

 

On the other hand, the supply shortage means the demand will push prices up in the long terms. My question #1 is, what is long term in the HK context? 1 year? 2 years? 5 years?

 

q.2 Did La Rossa really drive prices up in CC? Not sure. Prices seem to be in the mid-2007 range. So how will a fresh supply of 500 new midrise flats drive CC prices up?

 

Q. 3 Most importantly, can history be wrong? The 2 previous proeprty slumps in '98 and '2002 were directly trailing the Stock market. The bear run is imminent, so shouldn't property market follow suit going by historical data?

 

 

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QUOTE (bichishort @ Mar 30 2008, 10:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I guess it all boils down to whether you believe in the "wisdom of the crowd" or resist the "herd mentality".
Lemme explain.
Talked to friends and the sentiment (as also mentioned in Geoexpat threads) is that the market is in a peak - a crash is imminent. So, to do a Buffet, it's time to be greedy as everybody seems fearful.

On the other hand, the supply shortage means the demand will push prices up in the long terms


What, praytell, would drive the market down?
Are rentals going to fall?
I cannot see it, especially in TC, where value-for-money is excellent, and supply and demand have only recently
come into balance for the first time in years.

Are interest rates going to rise?
Maybe later in the year (and this worries me too somewhat). But I cannot see it in the immediate future.
As long as rates remain low, and prices in TC have not shot up too much, it is cheaper to own than to rent,
at least in the TC market. And this will underpin prices IMHO.

Are the banks going to stop lending?
This is another real possibility. And I admit that banks are now slower to lend to foreigners without HK income,
if they lend at all. But they are not advancing crazy amounts like they have done in the UK and the US, and
right now, the HK mortage lending sector seems to be in good health, so long as they remain sensible.

The negative sentiment presents an opportunity IMHO.
It may be justified in the luxury sector, where prices are skyhigh, yields are low, and housing allowances
may get whacked back by global financial pressures
. But personally, I think reasonably-priced and MTR connected
areas like TC will continue to be under upwards pressure, whatever happens to the overpriced luxury areas.
Markets "climb a wall of worry", and those who recall the falls in TC in 2005-2006 may think that Tc will fall back.
But this is a different market now IMHO. And those worries may provide the bargains that buyers want to see.

QUOTE (bichishort @ Mar 30 2008, 10:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
My question #1 is, what is long term in the HK context? 1 year? 2 years? 5 years?


I cannot say for sure. I am watching the factors just mentioned above.
And maybe the real easy money has been made already./

QUOTE (bichishort @ Mar 30 2008, 10:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
q.2 Did La Rossa really drive prices up in CC? Not sure.
Prices seem to be in the mid-2007 range. So how will a fresh supply of 500 new midrise flats drive CC prices up?


The "shoppers" that came tos ee laRossa saw value in TC, and many bought elsewhere in TC.
The same phenomenon has been seen in other parts of HK. Why not here in TC a second time?

QUOTE (bichishort @ Mar 30 2008, 10:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
Q. 3 Most importantly, can history be wrong? The 2 previous property slumps in '98 and '2002
were directly trailing the Stock market. The bear run is imminent, so shouldn't property market follow
suit going by historical data?


In those previous property peaks, yields werefarbelow rates, there had been a parabolic move in property
prices into the peak, and sentiment was gianormously bullish- as it was in the UK in 2006/7.
The dangers arein the luxury sector here, and that part of the market is now slowing.

Personally, I can see potential for another leap in Hk share prices, and let's watch for that.
Meantime, the rising rents, falling rates and tight supply, trump the negative impact of falling stocks IMHO.

But in the end, you have to make your own mond up,and take your chances. I cannot guarantee anything.

If you live in Hk, I'd be happy to meet face-to-face to discuss this more.




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What, praytell, would drive the market down?

Are rentals going to fall?

I cannot see it, especially in TC, where value-for-money is excellent, and supply and demand have only recently

come into balance for the first time in years.

 

...But in the end, you have to make your own mond up,and take your chances. I cannot guarantee anything.

If you live in Hk, I'd be happy to meet face-to-face to discuss this more.

 

Thanks a ton, Doctor.

I'm with you on most points - and will take you up on the face-to-face offer.

Where's your office?

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