Buying Specifically in Carib.Coast, Tung Chung (Lantau)

[drbubb]

Update

 

 

I simply multiplied the Centaline Mass Market Index x46, and compared with

the reported weekly price for Caribbean Coast

 

Touching the resistance level?

 

Or is it purely in my imagination?

 

Overlaying current data on top of historical - just a few weeks left?

[surfdude]

Interesting. What do you think will be the catalyst to turn the market downwards, Interest rates?

[drbubb]

Interesting. What do you think will be the catalyst to turn the market downwards, Interest rates?

 

I am not saying we will see that. I just wanted to do an overlay, and see what MIGHT happen if we followed the same pattern.

My best guess is that the patterns will begin to diverg soon, and we could even see an upside breakout.

 

Here's a post from the CC.org website:

 

I was thinking of buying. So it is not a good time I take from the thread and I should continue to rent.

 

I suppose it depends on where you see rates and bank lending appetite going.

 

I'm NOT trying the RAMP PROPERTY here, I am trying to foster an honest debate. So here goes...

 

If rates stay low, then buying is probably cheaper than renting, since the interest part of a mortgage loan, is probably less than most are paying in rent. So every day that goes by with the present level of rates, the mroe you save.

 

Another consideration is bank lending appetite. Last year's crash caused a sudden need for some to sell property. At the same time, banks decided to tighten their lending terms, and reduce their valuations. So some people were forced sellers when buyers and their banks were very nervous. The result was a sharp drop in prices.

 

I am not expecting that same combination of negative forces, hitting the market all at once. So a small dip (such as 3-5%) may be more likely than a big correction, like last year.

 

Having said that, the dynamics in Tung Chung, and CC in particular may be different. I often describe TC as "the cheapest nice expat-friendly area in Hong Kong." Many would agree with that. (If you know someplace as cheap and nicer, let me know.)

 

The supply and demand situation for renters is miles different from what it was last year. Owner/Occupiers have flooded in TC and CC, because they see it as a sensible bargain. And now there are relatively few flats available for rent, while last year there were hundreds of flats, and few takers. As rents continue to rise, the argument for buying gets stronger and stronger.

 

If you have a counter-argument, I would be happy to hear it.

 

 

 

[drbubb]

Over $4,000 psf now !

 

I nice new high for CC, perhaps (?)

 

An A or H flat in Block 16, has been sold at $4.92 Million, that's : $4,032psf

[drbubb]

Breakout or Turn?

 

As the year ends, Hong Kong property may have reached a critical level

 

 

DATA

WeekEnded : HangS- SQx435: Hk12 :: CCLI : MMIdx ... MMI x46 / CaribC

10/04/2009 : 20,375 - 3,033 : 48.60 :: 72.70 : 70.81 ... $3,257 / $3,096

10/11/2009 : 21,499 - 3,129 : 51.75 :: 73.80 : 71.57 ... $3,292 / $3,257

10/18/2009 : 21,930 - 3,183 : 53.55 :: 73.37 : 71.38 ... $3,283 / $3,283

10/25/2009 : 22,590 - 3,249 : 55.30 :: 73.39 : 71.16 ... $3,273 / $3,247

11/01/2009 : 21,753 - 3,249 : 55.80 :: 73.74 : 71.30 ... $3,280 / $3,150

11/08/2009 : 21,830 - 3,264 : 56.30 :: 73.52 : 71.20 ... $3,275 / $3,161

11/15/2009 : 22,554 - 3,195 : 53.95 :: 73.91 : 71.42 ... $3,285 / $3,304

11/22/2009 : 22,456 - 3,202 : 54.20 :: 73.56 : 71.05 ... $3,xxx / $3,304

11/29/2009 : 21,135 - 3,128 : 51.70 :: 72.61 : 70.00 ... $3,220 / $3,157

12/06/2009 : 22,498 - 3,346 : 59.15 :: 73.03 : 70.87 ... $3,260 / $3,110

12/13/2009 : 21,902 - 3,307 : 57.80 :: 72.79 : 70.61 ... $3,248 / $3,293

12/20/2009 : 21,176 - 3,226 : 55.00 :: 73.08 : 70.79 ... $3,256 / $3,200e

12/27/2009 : 21,517 - 3,303 : 57.65 :: 73.23 : 70.95 ... $3,263 / $3,350

01/03/2009 : 21,873 - 3,324 : 58.40 ::

 

Charts revisited - this one caught the exact bottom in mid-December 2008

 

There's been plenty of price improvement in one year!

 

[surfdude]

Double Post from Tung Chung Thread:

 

Work on the Hospital for Tung Chung is set to begin. This is great news for Tung Chung as it provides added value to residents who now have to travel more than 30 minutes to Princess Margaret. It will also be a potential bonus for property as many of the people who staff the hospital will likely take up residence in the area. It is great to see the community grow in a positive way - I believe the new library will be opening soon as well.

 

Related Article:

 

Leighton awarded $245m hospital project

27/01/2010 12:05:01 PM

 

Leighton Holdings Ltd is part of a joint venture awarded a $245 million contract to build a hospital in Hong Kong.

Leighton Asia and Able Engineering Co Ltd will design and construct phase one of the eight storey, 160 bed Tung Chung Hospital on Lantau Island.

The work will commence this month, and completion is scheduled for mid-2012.

"Leighton Asia has completed many significant public building projects in Hong Kong and has a long standing working relationship with the Architectural Services Department," Leighton Asia managing director Hamish Tyrwhitt said.

"We value this relationship and looking forward to providing another important facility for our community."

 

[drbubb]

Double Post from Tung Chung Thread:

 

Work on the Hospital for Tung Chung is set to begin. This is great news for Tung Chung as it provides added value to residents who now have to travel more than 30 minutes to Princess Margaret. It will also be a potential bonus for property as many of the people who staff the hospital will likely take up residence in the area. It is great to see the community grow in a positive way - I believe the new library will be opening soon as well.

 

I agree !

Thanks for posting that. Completion: mid-2012. Not too far away.

I understand that bridge construction may start in Sept. 2010 - another positive

[surfdude]

I understand that bridge construction may start in Sept. 2010 - another positive

 

Hopefully construction will be in a way that limits environmental impact. I hate to think of the increase in airborne particles from the construction site. I haven't heard if the empty lot in front of CC will be used as a staging area for the bridge construction - personally I hope not but it may fit this role ideally.

 

I think the bridge will become a positive when it is completed.

[drbubb]

Hopefully construction will be in a way that limits environmental impact. I hate to think of the increase in airborne particles from the construction site. I haven't heard if the empty lot in front of CC will be used as a staging area for the bridge construction - personally I hope not but it may fit this role ideally.

 

I think the bridge will become a positive when it is completed.

And maybe sooner too.

There will be many jobs created, and that should help push up rents in TC and CC, imho

 

[drbubb]

Re: New houses up for sale

 

1/

If they sell well at HK$8,000- 10,000,

It is bound to help lift some more CC flats to above $4,000 psf.

 

==============================

2/

Apart from talking up the market, why exactly, and what is the connection, between the shoe boxes and a rise in CC prices. Do you have a chart?

 

Partly because of the recent cold weather (& people from outside TC not wanting to make the trek, when cold),

&

Partly because to the big push made at Yoho Town, and other new projects

 

...Prices in CC have lagged behind the Mass Market Index, and now are about $150 psf, that's $150,000 per B or G flat, below their usual relationship to that index.

 

With people poking around in the new houses, some may look up and ask, "How much are those flats up there?"

They will discover CC is a bargain.

==============================

 

3/

Doktor---you really should get yourself a job at an investment bank with logic like that. Let us hope the new public housing estate gives a similar kick to psf prices of which, I'm afraid, will always lag the broader market. That is until the mindset that TC is located in the far corner of Guangdong province dissipates and the ability to drive directly to Zhuhai emerges. Further, the minority of us who feel disinclined to buy into a rigged market would prefer to avoid this forum being turned into a boiler room for your property investments, and very much enjoy the logic of the lagging price.

How much experience do you have investing in property?

Look at the big thread, and you can see the accuracy of my comments on HK property.

 

You are wrong to say that TC "will always lag the market."  

History has shown that it has mostly move with it:

 

(Red above is Caribbean Coast - the chart has not been updated)

 

If you want to see laggard markets, then look at Tuen Mun, or Gold Coast.  

They have behaved differently than TC.

==============================

 

4/

Tseung Kwan O is next to a huge landfill, and seems to be doing ok.  Still you have to wonder who the hell approved the plans for all this shit IN THE SAME PLACE.

They are spending a fortune on marketing !.

But I think it has lagged other markets. We nearly bought at The Capitol in March 2008.  I am very glad we did not, since I think we would still be underwater there.

 

The problem that TKO has is however popular it is at launch, eventually they must face the REALITY-of-RENTALS.  If the property is completed, and it proves hard to rent, then yields will be very low, and that will tend to depress prices.  

 

This dynamic hit CC back in 2006, and meant that prices had to reset to a lower multiple of the MMI (Centaline Mass Market Index.)  Now, CC has found its place, and tend to trade in line with 46x MMI.  The exception is when the weather gets bad, and people do not want to come out to TC, then buying interest lags.

 

Some here may think I am making this up.  The truth is, we have sold several properties in TC over the past 12 months, and I get calls and bids from many agents.  So I can see the level of interest.  When the weather is cold or rainy, we get very few calls.  Action definitely picks up when the weather is pleasant.

 

Another thing.  Someone said they "only saw estate agents" at the houses.

 

Does that surprise you?  If you understood the market better then you would know that most viewing happens on the weekends.  The first wave of viewers is usually the estate agents, who are given "the spin" by the developers, who try and get them excited to go and chase buyers.   If there are no potential buyers looking this weekend, then that would be a bad sign.

[drbubb]

Tung Chung site attracts little interest

11-05-2010

 

A 280,000 square feet waterfront residential site in Tung Chung has been sold at a government land auction for HK$3.42 billion -- well below market estimates. This puts the price per square foot at under HK$2,400. Analysts had expected the site to fetch at least HK$4-billion.

 

Only three bidders participated in the auction, and the winning developer, Nam Fung, had to keep bidding against itself, just to reach the government's reserve price. The auctioneer, Graham Ross, repeatedly warned during the auction that the government could be forced to withdraw the plot from sale. However, he insisted that it had been sold for a fair price.

==

 

Of course, the problems in Europe and sliding property prices in China haven't helped.

 

I think this does show that HOPES sometimes get ahead of REALITY

 

However, it is not a horrible result since:

 

Land Cost------ : $2,443 psf

Build Cost ----- : $1,500 psf, estimate

Builders Margin- : $1,400 psf (30% of above)

. . . . . . . . . . . : =======

SELLING PRICE?: $5,126 psf : this is above recent average selling prices in CC, but not by much.

 

Won't push prices higher, I think: considering that this will be a newer building, closer to the sea -

albeit a further walk from the MTR.

 

But I don't see this auction helping to push up prices in CC.

Those wanting prices to rise in TC will need to find another trigger.

 

On further examination, $3.42 Million was quite a large miss.

 

One of the Chinese newspapers had estimates from various Surveyors:

 

Centaline ... : $5.04 Billion ($3,504 psf)

Surveyor #2: $4.75 Billion ($3,300)

Surveyor #3: $4.75 Billion ($3,300)

Surveyor #4: $4.50 Billion ($3,128)

Surveyor #5: $4.36 Billion ($3,031)

Surveyor #6: $4.20 Billion ($3,922)

========

Mean Est. .. : $4.60 Billion ($3,198)

 

Actual price : $3.42 Billion ($2,377 psf)

 

I go through all these numbers, because of a conversation I had last weekend with one of the agents in TC. He sat me down an took me through the numbers, saying that he expected the property to be sold for about $4.5 Billion ($3,128) and if you added in $1,200 psf for building costs and then $1,000 psf for the builder's profit margin, this resulted in a figure near $5,325 psf.

 

At that price, he confidently predicted my 729 sf 2-BR apartment would be worth $3.88 Million within a few years time. He told me that my $2.88 Million asking price (for a high floor flat) was "very reasonable."

 

I wonder how many recent buyers were shown the same calculations, and how they might feel today after the disappointing sale?

 

If I use a figure of $3.42 Billion ($2,377 psf), and the other figures from the agent, I get: $4,577 psf, and if I apply this number to the flat calculation, I get $3.33 Million, which is only 16% above my asking price. Is that enough of a difference to interest a buyer, who might be able to acquire a new flat for $3.33 milllion, if the agent's calculations are right?

 

Another point: If I ignore the expect $1,000 psf "profit" for the agent, I get a price of $3,577 psf. Applying that to my flat, I get $2.61 million. Perhaps it is worth paying more for one on a high floor. The the average price of flats in CC was recently reported at $3,479 psf last week.

 

We may see a bit of downwards pressure on CC prices during the next few weeks, or until some more positive news comes out for HK property.

[drbubb]

From Today's SCMP:

"After the land auction yesterday, about 40 per cent of the flat owners in Caribbean Coast, a development near the auctioned site, cut the asking prices of their flats by 5 to 10 per cent, according to Tony Poon Chi-kwong of Centaline Property Agency.

 

Midland Realty cheif analyst Buggle Lau Ka-fai expects property sales to drop 20 per cent to 24,000 deals in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, while property prices would fall.

 

Nan Fung will spend up to HK$3 Billion to develop the site. The company has more than 130 projects under its belt, including some in Hong Kong and on teh mainland."

 

(They won on the 16th bid after 32 minutes. Bids had to be coaxed. "It was like pulling teeth," said Nicholas Brooke.)

[surfdude]

The Tide has Turned

 

Article taken from todays Standard

 

Hammered!

Derek Yiu and Mandy Lo

 

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

 

 

 

Property prices in Tung Chung are under pressure with owners cutting asking prices by as much as 10 percent after yesterday's dismal land auction.

Nan Fung Development had to make six consecutive bids to clinch the 282,000-square-foot site for HK$3.42 billion, well below market estimates of HK$4.2 billion to HK$5 billion.

 

Most of the top developers stayed away, convincing many flat owners to cut prices.

 

Up to 90 percent of sellers in Tung Chung are now saying prices are negotiable, according to Cindy Li of Ricacorp Properties. "Some sellers offered to double the commission rate to agents to get their flats sold," Li said.

 

A homeowner at Tung Chung development Caribbean Coast took a flat - which was going for HK2.8 million - off the market last week ahead of the auction, but slashed the asking price to HK$2.65 million yesterday, according to Centaline.

 

Li expects transactions in Tung Chung to tumble more than 60 percent from April to about 100 deals this month.

 

During the sale Lands Department deputy director Graham Ross was forced to remind developers nearly 20 times in half an hour that the site could be withdrawn unless there was improved bidding.

 

The lackluster show has also raised fears over upcoming auctions. Surveyors have cut the valuation of a site in Fan Ling - which is to be auctioned on May 24 - by up to 26 percent. Midland Surveyors estimates the 95,800 sq ft site will fetch HK$1.34 billion, nearly 15 percent lower than previously forecast.

 

The

outlook has also turned bleak for secondary home prices. Transactions in the sector may fall 20 percent quarter-on-quarter for the three months ending June 30, with prices off by a single digit, Midland chief analyst Buggle Lau Ka-fai forecasts.

 

Centaline managing director Louis Chan Wing-kit expects prices for both new and old homes to shrink by 3 to 5 percent in the near future.

Chan also sees total residential transactions this month plunging by 30 to 40 percent over April.

 

The Hang Seng Index reached an intraday low of 19,977.1 points shortly after the auction started. It closed down 1.4 percent at 20,146.5.

 

Nan Fung made 12 of the 16 bids at the auction. New World Development (0017), which made three bids, lost 2.58 percent.

 

Surveyor Pang Siu-kei said the HK$3.42 billion to be paid was already "the best possible price" in a poor situation with only three bidders. The figure, however, was only 18.9 percent higher than the trigger price of HK$2.88 billion. But Pang said the healthy economy coupled with low interests rates and hot money inflows should not have brought about such a low price. Pang said developers were "flexing their muscles" to deter the government from adopting property policies slanted against them.

 

"Whenever someone makes a loud noise to fight for something, [the government] will be swayed," Pang said, referring partly to the official stance on the Home Ownership Scheme.

 

Savills Valuation and Professional Services managing director Charles Chan Chiu-kwok said strong public calls for new HOS homes and lower property prices have led developers to be vigilant amid fears that the next chief executive will change industry policies.

 

But UOB Kay Hian analyst Sylvia Wong disagreed, saying developers are not politically motivated and they are simply downbeat about the market.

 

Developers' stocks will continue facing downside risk, with those more exposed to the residential sector being more seriously affected, Wong said.Cheung Kong Holdings (0001), Wheelock Properties (0049), New World and K Wah International (0173) all said earlier that recent official measures would not affect the auction.

 

CKH executive director Grace Woo Chia-ching rejected the claim that developers have joined forces to vent their discontent and noted the final bid was not low at all.

 

While Woo said the government's valuation may have strayed from the industry's, auctioneer Ross rejected the claim that the reserve price was too high.

 

Nan Fung managing director Donald Choi Wun-hing said it was not often a large plot could be obtained at a reasonable HK$2,370 per square foot.

 

Nam Fung will invest HK$2 billion to HK$3 billion on up to 2,000 homes, mainly flats sized 800 to 900 sq ft.

 

_______________________________________________________________________

 

That is some bearish news for Tung Chung.

 

The timing of the auction was obviously bad luck coming fast on the heels of the financial woes in Europe which are playing on everyone's mind. China also has its own problems with trying to control a property bubble and with keeping inflation in check. This will also affect property in HK.

 

In a way, this land auction is doubly bad for property prices in Tung Chung. The land was sold cheaply by HK standards but that is a reflection of what the Market feels land values are worth in TC:

 

[/i]The auctioneer, Graham Ross, repeatedly warned during the auction that the government could be forced to withdraw the plot from sale. However, he insisted that it had been sold for a fair price. [/i]

 

I listened to his radio interview on RTHK and he said some expats were expecting a higher price but he feels the final price reflected fair market value.

 

Expect valuations to go down in TC in the coming weeks/months. The area enjoyed huge gains in the past year and those valuation are no longer valid in the current changing market. Basically the auction was a confirmation that valuations in TC were too high.

 

The other problem for Tung Chung and Caribbean Coast specifically is that it will be affected by a major construction project with all the noise, dust and eye sore that brings. When the construction is completed it will impact on the sea view of many floors in phase one. Interestingly, I saw an old neighbour recently whose flat will be affected by the new construction. He told me he had seen a fung shui master and been informed it is not good for his health to view the sea so he is happy his view will be blocked - interesting psychology. I wonder if other owners will feel the same...

[drbubb]

Some more details on the Auction from today's HK Standard

 

+ Nan Fung made 12 of the 16 Bids on the Tung Chung site of 282,014sf, which sold for HK$3.42 Billion

 

+ There were rumors that Top developers boycotted the auction to show their displeasure that so much new land is coming up for auction or tender

 

+ Other sites are: in Fan Ling, Ho Man Tin, and on The Peak, plus a tender for the site above the Nam Cheong MTR

 

+ These four sites migh have a combined cost of HK$50 billion, and some developers may have wanted to undermine confidence ahead of such important sales

 

(Other negative aspects of the site):

+ An adjacent site, closer to the waterfront, will block most of the views

+ A public housing estate is planned for across the street from the auctioned site

[drbubb]

Old thread, but worth moving... into the Main Property section

[drbubb]

CC versus D-Bay

===============

 

Caribbean Coast (Tung Chung) property prices have caught up with Discovery Bay prices

Chart:


Time was, when I lived in Tung Chung, properties in D-Bay were thought to be worth a premium, of up to 50% relative to CC - in terms of the price per sf.

But now as the old song says: "The thrill is gone." D-Bay no longer sells for a premium to CC.

Why?
I thought a discussion on this might be of interest to some here.

[drbubb]

Tung Chung becomes more "central" to the Pearl River Delta as new infrastructure is added

 

Conceptual Scheme of the Railway Corridor

 

 

/see: http://www.ourfuturerailway.hk/index.html?p=003

[drbubb]

CC Price Check : Nov.2013 : update

 

Tung Chung area - Showing impact of New Property pricing

Tung Chung seems to be one of the first areas to show some noticeable reduction in second-hand prices thanks to New property sales

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/3492/wva3.png

Timing-- : -- Date -- : CCLIdx : - x 46 - // CC-Gross : -CC-Net-- :
Latest is- : 11-17-13 : 120.13 : $5,525 // $5,795/sf : $7,770/sf :
Peak was : 03-10-13 : 122.98 : $5,657 // $6,441/sf : $8,636/sf :
Change-- : + 8mo.s : -2.33% : - 2.33% // -10.03 % : - 10.03% :

Why the drop?
The Visionary has 1,410 flats to sell, and the initial launch was at $7,671/sf, Net after discount

Why pay the same price for second hand (7-12 year old properties) when you can get "New" cheaper?

The Visionary may also be closer than some CC properties to the new East Tung Chung MTR station

 

Remember this old chart ? :

 

Despite the 10% drop in CC prices, they remain above that old ratio:

 

Timing-- : -- Date -- : CCLIdx : - x 46 - // CC-Gross : Net-/74.6%
Latest is- : 11-17-13 : 120.13 : $5,525 // $5,795 /sf : $7,770 /sf : > Premium is +4.88%

========

 

 

PROPOSED Development at Tung Chung East

 

+ New MTR Station : Tung Chung East

[drbubb]

Initial Land use options : Tung Chung East and Tung Chung West below for your consideration.

 

For Tung Chung East, the “Livable Town” option is based on a transport-oriented development concept to increase the development intensity of residential areas within a 500-metre walking distance from the proposed Tung Chung East MTR Station, where plot ratios (PRs) of 5 and 6 will be adopted. The area next to the station will be developed into a Metro Core Area with mixed residential and commercial uses, and the domestic PR band is proposed to descend to a PR of 4 to the north and a PR of 3 near the waterfront.

 

For the “Economic Vibrancy” option, more land will be reserved for commercial development so as to bring more job and business opportunities to the community. In this option, we will provide about 450 000 square metres of floor area for office, regional retail and hotel uses. A 350-berth marina is also planned for the south-eastern edge of the area and another parcel of land at the northern side of the proposed reclamation will be identified for provision of waterfront dining and retail facilities. The “Livable Town” and "Economic Vibrancy” options will provide 38 000 and 33 000 residential flats with planned populations of 111 000 and 95 000 respectively.

 

The development density of Tung Chung West is relatively lower in order to strike a balance between development and conservation. The scale of reclamation will be significantly reduced to avoid mudflats and mangroves, and seawater flows within Tung Chung Bay will not be affected based on preliminary assessment. Having regard to the public housing development at Area 39 of Tung Chung, higher density developments with domestic PRs of up to 5 and 6 are proposed for the southern part along Tai Chung Road with the backdrop of Tai Tung Shan. A domestic PR of 3 will be applicable to the areas adjoining Yat Tung Estate. Developments near the village clusters will be subject to a domestic PR of 1.5, whilst the intensity will be limited to a domestic PR of 0.75 in areas near the Tung Chung River estuary and the domestic PRs of the reclamation site will be 3 and 5. These areas will provide about 15 000 residential flats in total with a planned population of 43 000. There will also be commercial areas, waterfront promenades and government, institution and community facilities in Tung Chung West. We will try to seek a balanced mix of public and private housing for the whole Tung Chung extension under study to create a harmonious community.

 

The Stage 2 PE will last for two months until July 21. We hope that all of you will actively participate in the activities being held, including briefings, community workshops, public forums, roving exhibitions, focus group meetings and online platforms, so as to share with us your views and assist us in formulating an Outline Development Plan which can positively respond to public aspirations and the needs of the community.

26 May, 2013

===

> http://www.devb.gov.hk/en/home/my_blog/index_id_19.html

[drbubb]

Inconvenient Truth and the Development Trap

 

A somewhat inconvenient truth is that 22 percent of Tung Chung’s residents live below the poverty line, surpassing that of Sham Shui Po and Yuen Long statistics show, not to mention the hefty transport costs that become an extra burden for residents. Home to half of the new town’s population, public housing estates in Tung Chung — just about a five-minute bus ride from the train station — have made headlines for their suicides, illegal gambling, gang fights and youth crimes. Some speculate as to whether Tung Chung is on the verge of becoming the next Tin Shui Wai, the “city of sadness.”

Nevertheless, others anticipate a brand-new Tung Chung in the very near future. The city’s chief executive is committed to giving Tung Chung a fundamental facelift. Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor called Tung Chung a “bridgehead economic zone,” a potential regional logistics and business hub. A commute from Tung Chung to Central is a 20- to 30-minute ride via the Tung Chung MTR line, which also stops at Tsing Yi and Kowloon stations. Ferry services link Tung Chung with Tai O and Tuen Mun.

Under a concept plan for Lantau published as early as 2007, the Tung Chung new town is slated to grow twice its size, with its population tripling to 230,000 and with more parks and recreational facilities to be built, though construction isn’t expected to begin until 2020.

To realise these ambitions, a slew of infrastructure projects at its doorstep are already underway, including plans to build a third runway at the new airport to cope with increasing air traffic and the controversial Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, which will shorten travel time to the Pearl River Delta to merely 20 minutes when it’s finished in 2016.

===

> http://www.squarefoot.com.hk/news/273/tung-chung-development-traps-in-a-dilemma/

[drbubb]

SCMP post had a negative spin article on The Visionary in Tung Chung today:

Developer's brochure silent on noisy neighbors

Sales material for Tung Chung estate fails to mention that it's near airport and new bridge:

"Most of the northernly windows face directly towards the take-off point for flights choosing the southern runway."

On the other hand:

"Developer Nan Fung dismissed the claim from environmental concern group Green Sense arguing the documents met legal requirements."

(We were here yesterday, and there is no doubt the aircraft sounds are very noticeable - but we lived there for 3-4 years, and can confirm you become accustomed to them within a few weeks.)

It is possible that close access to the bridge to Macau and China will be a plus in the long run.

[drbubb]

2nd HAND BARGAINS ? : Not just yet !

 

We visited Tung Chung yesterday (for a social purpose)

And stopped to talk with two of our Agent friends who work there.

I had expected that some bargains would be showing up now in Caribbean Coast - now that the price pressure from The Visionary is being felt. It is not as evident as I had expected:

+ The post-lottery sales went ahead on Saturday with "mixed" results:

. Over 2,500 cheques were received

. Of the 318 flats for sale, 40 flats were left unsold

. The 1BR flats with low lump sums were grabbed very quickly
. The "leftover flats" were mostly 3BR flats with relatively large lump sums

+ The high "cheque count" was somewhat misleading
. The size of cheque was small, only $150,000
. Some agents were using only Credit Cards charges (not processed)
. Multiple cheques were given by some, to improve their chances of getting a low lumpsum 1BR flat
. Some agents were encouraged to put in cheques, to boost the cheque count
. It is said that 4 of the first 10 lottery numbers did not show up to buy

THe Visionary has a strange quirk in its contract:
. The get the big discount (over 20%), you have to close the transaction, and pay all the monies within 60 days. But you will not get the key then
. The earliest possible move-in date in the project would be Dec. 2014, but that is "unlikely" said one agent. And the completion of the whole project will take months
. The default date is a year later: Dec. 2015,
. So buyers must pay within 60 days, and will have no rent, and no flat to live in for one year, and in some cases may have to wait almost two years.
That inconvenience certainly justifies a 5-10% discount in the price.

Both agents whom I spoke to said that there has been little immedaite impact in the price. But they did agree that buyers now have little reason to purchase secondhand (unless they need a quicker and certain move in date.)

My view is the biggest price pressure in the secondhand market wil be on the larger flats, especially if the developer is forced to cut prices for the new 3BR flats, which would then put more pressure on secondhand.

===

> AX: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/151878/hk-developers-game:-cut-prices?/

[drbubb]

The Visionary, in Tung Chung

2013-11-19-(Tue) / go to:【28Hse.com】

The price of The Visionary cheaper than the price of the same district,discount priced at HKD $7,672 per sq.ft., Net

Hong Kong's Wen Wei Po News ( Reporter Leung Yuk Cum ) :

As the new properties seek for sale, so the developers launched out free of taxes continuously in order to attract buyers.The Visionary of Nan Fung Group in Tung Chung have announced the first price list of 318 units last night,with an average price of $9,686 HKD,after deducting a number of concessions,the discounts up to 20.8%,which means the discounted price of $7,672 er sq.ft,10% to 30% lower than the price of second-hand properties in the same district,the admission fee of 1 bedroom unit after discount,price at $3.318 million HKD,17% lower than the price of one unit of Coastal Skyline which located in the same district.

Nan Fung Development Property Division general manager Chung Chi Lam said the price list of The Visionary which have launched in the first time providing 318 units in total,with an average of HKD$9,686 per practical sq.ft,mainly in two and three bedrooms units ; also provided a small amount of 1 bedroom and 4-bedrooms unit to meet the market demand.The developers provided 3% special discounts,also provided 9% " stamp duty subsidy " discounts.The Visionary also provided 3 king of payment method :the one which selected the installment payment will receive 10% discounts of the price;the one which selected the construction period payment will remain paying the original price;as for the second mortgage payment method will receive 2% discounts of the price.

He pointed out that The Visionary have opened the demonstration units in the past weekend,it attracted over 10,000 people to visit.Due to the fact that Tung Chung is the alignment key development areas of the government,coupled with the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge was expected to be built in 2016,so he was full of confidence on this project's sale.

One-Bedroom unit in an admission fee of $3.31 million HKD

The price list shown that the units of the first price list are located in Tower 2,5,7,8,9 and 10,with saleable area from 434 feet to 1,420 feet,without counting the preferential price,priced at $4.19 million to $1.60 ten million HKD.Of which,the most cheapest admission fee unit was a one-bedroom unit,located in Flat F,3/F,Tower 10,salable area of ​​434 feet,discounted price of $3.318 million HKD,$7,646 HKD per sq.ft.

==

> http://eng.news.28hse.com/C100/20174/

[drbubb]

Here's another Estate whose price has taken a big hit:

Coastal Skyline, CC's neighbor in Tung Chung, which is also seeing competition from The Visionary.

chart-- :
update : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/estate_info_e.aspx?id=008510

+ Coastal Skyline : - 9.95% : $6,693 psf, compared with $7,433 (Dec. 2012)
=====
DATA
Week/yr: CCLIdx: TaikSh. : / ParkAv: Sorren/ C'ribC: Co'Sky
01/12/14: 117.71 : 11,331 : / 11,367: 17,440/ 5,698 : 6,693
12/29/13: 119.07 : 10,936 : / 12,325: 17,849/ 5,768 : 6,680
12/30/12: 115.78 : 11,665 : / 11,161: 16,316/ 6,053 : 7,433
12/25/11: 096.68 : 09,877 : / 10,147: 13,257/ 4,610 : 5,595
01/23/11: 091.21 : 09,502 : / 08,897: 14,00E/ 3,998 : 4,736
(estimates follow):
12/27/10: 088.38 : 09,200 : / 09,100 : 14,200/ 4,100 : 5,000
12/27/09: 073.23 : 07,800 : / 07,300 : 11,200/ 3,300 : 4,000
12/28/08: 056.78 : 05,600 : / 05,600 : 07,700/ 2,650 : 3,000
12/30/07: 066.98 : 07,000 : / 06,200 : 11,000/ 2,800 : 3,500
12/01/07: 053.48 : 05,300 : / 05,300 : 07,000/ 2,500 : 3,000
Week/yr: CCLIdx : TaikSh. : ShamW. / Sorren/ C'ribC : Co'Sky

What estates are you watching ?