Tracking Junior Miners - Why Are they Underperforming?

[Tune2001]

HOOK PREDICTED THE CRASH (in CDNX), now he thinks it is almost over

 

As part of our numerous warnings concerning precious metals juniors in summer, you may remember the structural delineation of a measured move (MM) in the SPX/TSX Venture Composite Index (CDNX) suggestive of a crash all the way down to the 1300 proximity was underway due to tightening liquidity / credit conditions. And without fail, as these things have a tendency to do, the MM is now almost complete, suggestive of an alleviation in credit markets soon, which is exactly what a passage of the proposed bailout is suppose to accomplish. This is of course why stocks around the world have been attempting to be buoyant, accounting for strength witnessed in Western markets after the Gray Monday plunge as the junkies continue to speculate on another ‘credit fix’.

 

/see: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2008/1013.html

 

He also says this

"...In deflation, precious metals and precious metals shares can have quite different outcomes, where if for example the broad market is destined to fall 90-percent plus in a Grand Super Cycle Degree event, many, if not most of the existing companies could be wiped out."

 

Which doesn't sound at all good for gold miners of any size.

 

[drbubb]

BACK TO GO? for Canadian Juniors

The recent sorry saga, in its longer term context

===============================

 

 

(From Canaccord Adams report):

 

To give an indication of how the current retrenchment on the TSX-Venture ranks with

previous bear runs, we have charted the performance of the Vancouver Stock Exchange

(VSE), the Canadian Venture Exchange (CDNX), and the TSX-Venture (TSX-V) since

1983. Without doubt the current drop of 75% in the TSX-Venture is the largest 17-month

decline since its inception in January 2002. If we use the predecessor exchanges to the

TSX-V as a gauge, we are currently in a larger decline than the crash of 1987 when the

market dropped 54% over a 12-month period. Unfortunately, it did not end there; the

total fallout starting in 1987 was a 3.75-year period with the market declining about 75%

from April 1987 highs. Following the Bre-X crash of 1996, the impending “dark ages” for

junior mining spanned about 3.50 years and the total decline was about 73%. These

significant corrections (1987 and 1997) in the junior sector resulted in a prolonged loss

of confidence. In other circumstances, in previous cycles after corrections of up to 42%,

the market recovered with a negligible consolidation period in just over one year.

In our investment thesis we postulate the potential for a short consolidation period and

quicker recovery in the current market environment than we have observed in previous

cycles.

 

Correction periods VSE, CDNX, and TSX-Venture Exchange (1983-2008)

Period

...From - To ... :% Change # of Years

May-83 Jan-85 : -42% ... 1.6

Apr-87 -Jan-91 : -75% ... 3.7

Apr-87 Dec-91 : -73% ... 4.6

Jan-94 -Feb-95 : -40% ... 1.1

May-96 Aug-98 : -73% ... 2.3

May-96 Oct-99 : -73% ... 3.4

Mar-00 Sep-01 : -34% ... 1.4

Latest :

May-07 Oct-08 : -75% ... 1.5

 

• ETFs:

There is the ongoing debate regarding whether the popularity of ETFs has

helped or hindered the gold equities. With investors able to participate in ETFs that

offer exposure to bullion, arguably some capital that previously would have been

allocated to the equities is now funnelled to ETFs. In our opinion, there is good

reason for concern. An investor looking to reduce risk through exposure to bullion

can now avoid the political, start up, environmental, community, etc, risks that come

with a gold equity. Royalty companies are providing a similar risk-averse

opportunity. Companies like Franco-Nevada, Royal Gold, Silver Wheaton (SLW : TSX

: C$4.52 | BUY), and Gold Wheaton (GLW : TSX-V : C$0.36 | Not rated) all work on a

model that allows them to receive revenue from a series of gold/silver operations

around the globe and are largely immune from operating cost erosion since most of

their royalties are derived from the net revenue line. These companies also typically

benefit from resource growth at no additional cost, have limited exposure to taxes,

and no environmental or closure commitments.

[drbubb]

(started on Dec. 28th)

 

"...I am alert to a possible breakout in Gold over $860, an important resistance level.

 

Gold / GLD ... update

 

I am a little concerned that the Gold bulls are getting a bit to complacent. But in their defense, I hasten to add that January is normally a good month for Gold and Gold stocks. If Gold does breakout over $860, it could move $100 rather fast. And this time it seems likely to drag CDNX (and the Juniors) up with it. The tax-oriented selling that we see in the 4th quarter must be over by now. So the move in CDNX could be a sharp one."

 

- above, from Dr.B's Trading Diary:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=5460

[GatheringStorm]

 

If you got a minute to spare, pull up a chart of Pinetree Capital pnp.to (up 147% on the last weeks trading!!!)

 

Pinetree is a basket of junior miners as I understand it. I hope this sort of performance comes to my portfolio soon!

 

 

 

 

[paulypaul]

If you got a minute to spare, pull up a chart of Pinetree Capital pnp.to (up 147% on the last weeks trading!!!)

 

Pinetree is a basket of junior miners as I understand it. I hope this sort of performance comes to my portfolio soon!

 

 

I was wondering about that too. I just want to know what caused it though - could be anything on such a think stock though.

 

 

[Pixel8r]

Double post from the gold thread.

 

Why Juniors?, Why Now? - Analysis of the Canadian CDNX Index... by Clive Maund

 

 

 

[littledavesab]

Just sticking a link accross to Dr B's recent comments on UK gold producers

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....amp;#entry95146

[jerpy]

Larry writes a few reasons to be positive, taken from Kitco

 

"These are several reasons to be investing in producing, exploration and development companies at this time. Gold stocks are already lofting, the bargains will be found in the gold explorers and under-valued metal companies. They are not that far behind. Again due diligence on these companies is paramount in your investment strategy.

 

Let’s recap the events that are rapidly developing in our industry:

 

1. Financings are picking up, especially bought deals for companies having cash and low cost operations, and those companies having developing resources in gold/seller.

2. Land acquisitions are picking up steam in some cases bidding wars are beginning to develop.

3. Shares of companies that are shutting down unprofitable mines or reducing large commitments and obligations are actually going up.

4. Cashed up mid-tier and major producers gearing up for acquisitions of companies having production and/or large resources of gold and silver.

5. Chinese companies buying up cash strapped resource companies or parts of large companies (as an example Rio/Chinalco the Chinalco investment of $19.5 billion).

6. Advanced gold company shares are breaking 6 -7 month highs.

7. Majors continue to shut down or reduce production of iron, coal, manganese, zinc, nickel and copper.

8. Smelter rates going up while reducing capacity in some cases.

9. Mines in all categories continue to shut down worldwide. The list I have made is the tip of the iceberg and only entails TSX & TSX.V mining companies.

 

The upshot is investors and funds are once again investing in mining operations, development and exploration. It is conceivable that this investment will soon start bargain hunting in gold exploration and the battered base metals, coal, oil and specialty metal companies. As with gold the window of opportunity is currently wide open for bargain hunters and, also as in gold, it will rapidly close.

 

As you follow events in the media the emphasis is on how the mining industry is reeling from bankruptcy, layoffs, strikes and negative cash flows. This has created one of the best buying opportunities I have seen in my 45 years in the mining industry".

 

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Reaugh/feb162009.html

 

[frizzers]

http://www.howestreet.com/audiovideo/index...mediaplayer/295

[Mr Pipples]

http://www.howestreet.com/audiovideo/index...mediaplayer/295

 

Yep, but he's also suggesting that it might be a good idea to sell/short the majors soon too...

 

He says, 'not yet' - but I'd say that focussing on juniors and lightening-up/selling/even shorting majors/mids would have made sense over the last week or so already. Eg, Yamana, RGLD, GG... Didn't manage that very well myself!

[vssmnn]

Kopane rebirth

 

[littledavesab]

Kopane rebirth

 

Very nice move, I hope u have some (I Dont)!

 

I see:

 

Kopane Diamond Developments PLC said it was notified that shareholder Obtala Resources PLC holds 59.67 million shares in the company, or 27.17 percent of the issued share capital.

 

Advantagous fundraising for Obtala (@3.5p !) or Do you think a bid might be coming?

 

http://www.obtalaresources.co.uk/content/p...hive/300309.asp

[littledavesab]

MINING (1770) CONSTITUENTS - PERFORMANCE - STILL DOWN 50% OVER LAST YR.

 

Up 39% over last 3 months (or last 6)

 

Hope this chart copies accross ok

 

Name Price 30 day Chg EPS P/E PEG Div Yield Market Cap (m) Broker Rec

 African Consolidated Resources 7.38p 34.09% -0.48p n/a 0 0.00% £16.52 n/a

 African Copper 2.12p 0.00% 0.090p 23.6 0 0.00% £3.12 Strong Sell

 African Diamonds 23.00p -6.12% -1.07p n/a 0 0.00% £17.53 Neutral

 African Eagle Resources 3.00p -4.00% -0.60p n/a 0 0.00% £6.38 Strong Buy

 African Minerals Limited 56.25p 37.20% -30.05¢ n/a 0 0.00% £105.48 Strong Buy

 Alba Mineral Resources 0.62p 0.00% -0.65p n/a 0 0.00% £0.58 n/a

 Alexander Mining 3.12p 31.58% -8.96p n/a 0 0.00% £4.20 n/a

 Allied Gold 18.00p -7.69% -2.70¢ n/a 0 0.00% £85.08 Strong Buy

 Altona Energy 3.62p -14.71% -0.26p n/a 0 0.00% £12.98 n/a

 Amur Minerals 4.08p 526.92% -2.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £4.96 n/a

 Anglesey Mining 4.13p 6.44% 6.80p 0.6 0 0.00% £6.30 n/a

 Anglo American 1,422.00p 16.65% 436.00¢ 4.8 1.1 2.10% £18,720.50 Neutral

 Anglo Asian Mining 17.75p 0.00% -14.80¢ n/a 0 0.00% £18.25 n/a

 Anglo Pacific 120.00p 3.00% 27.56p 4.4 n/a 6.50% £128.06 n/a

 Angus & Ross 3.12p 8.70% -2.97p n/a 0 0.00% £6.63 n/a

 Antofagasta 558.00p 9.52% 85.50¢ 9.6 n/a 1.10% £5,501.08 Underweight

 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. 268.00p 53.45% 87.31¢ 4.5 0 4.82% £1,000.78 Underweight

 Archipelago Resources 9.25p 13.85% -3.10¢ n/a 0 0.00% £28.31 n/a

 Arian Silver Corporation (DI) 3.25p -10.34% -5.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £8.39 n/a

 Ariana Resources 2.88p 21.05% -0.84p n/a 0 0.00% £4.09 n/a

 ATH Resources 66.00p 71.43% 15.30p 4.3 1.2 9.09% £26.45 Strong Buy

 Aurum Mining 5.75p -84.03% -3.57¢ n/a 0 0.00% £2.77 Sell

 Avocet Mining 72.75p -5.83% 27.53¢ 3.9 0 0.00% £88.15 Overweight

 Baobab Resources 3.75p 100.00% -3.80p n/a 0 0.00% £3.60 n/a

 Beacon Hill Resources 0.75p 66.67% -3.19p n/a 0 0.00% £1.07 n/a

 Beowulf Mining 1.25p -9.09% -0.52p n/a 0 0.00% £1.01 n/a

 Bezant Resources 23.00p 130.00% -18.66p n/a 0 0.00% £9.01 n/a

 BHP Billiton 1,435.00p 1.92% 274.90¢ 7.7 0.4 3.32% £31,670.56 Overweight

 Bisichi Mining 130.00p 20.93% 0.88p 147.7 n/a 2.31% £13.59 Neutral

 Braemore Resources 4.20p 112.12% -0.21p n/a 0 0.00% £33.15 Strong Buy

 Brazilian Diamonds Ltd 0.80p 113.33% -4.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £1.55 n/a

 Caledon Resources 30.75p -20.65% 4.30¢ 14.6 0 0.00% £64.50 Overweight

 Caledonia Mining Corporation 5.25p 40.00% -0.80¢ n/a 0 0.00% £24.49 n/a

 Cambrian Mining 26.00p 1.96% 28.13p 0.9 0 0.00% £30.72 Neutral

 Cambrian Mining 'A' Wts 0.000p 0.00% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

 Cape Diamonds 1.38p 41.03% -97.66p n/a 0 0.00% £1.99 n/a

 Carlton Resources 0.53p 40.00% -3.93p n/a 0 0.00% £1.41 n/a

 Centamin Egypt 53.25p -2.74% 0.51¢ 152.4 n/a 0.00% £527.02 Buy

 Central African Gold 1.60p 42.22% -15.31p n/a 0 0.00% £16.07 Strong Sell

 Central African Gold Warrants 3.00p 0.00% -15.31p n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

 Central African Mining & Exploration Company 9.42p 142.78% 2.80p 3.4 0 0.00% £264.12 n/a

 Central China Goldfields 2.25p 12.50% -1.70p n/a 0 0.00% £4.13 n/a

 Central Rand Gold 42.00p -8.70% -16.21¢ n/a 0 0.00% £103.71 Strong Buy

 Chaarat Gold Holdings 16.00p 10.34% -11.21¢ n/a 0 0.00% £11.50 n/a

 China Goldmines 24.00p 4.35% -9.37¢ n/a 0 0.00% £11.63 Overweight

 Chromex Mining 19.50p 16.42% -1.94p n/a 0 0.00% £16.58 n/a

 Chromex Mining Wts To Sub for Ord 5.00p 100.00% -1.94p n/a n/a n/a £0.27 n/a

 Cluff Gold 35.25p -7.24% -7.47¢ n/a 0 0.00% £41.29 Strong Buy

 Coal of Africa Limited 63.50p 31.61% -4.12¢ n/a 0 0.00% £261.22 Buy

 Connemara Mining 9.50p 0.00% -4.62¢ n/a 0 0.00% £1.44 n/a

 Conroy Diamonds 2.50p -4.76% -0.35¢ n/a 0 0.00% £2.54 n/a

 Diamondcorp 30.50p 0.00% -11.55p n/a 0 0.00% £11.31 n/a

 Discovery Metals (CDI) 12.75p 64.52% -3.94¢ n/a 0 0.00% £21.91 Strong Buy

 Dwyka Resources 5.88p 14.63% 0.100¢ 119.7 0 0.00% £11.08 n/a

 Eastern Platinum 31.75p 32.29% 1.33¢ 35.2 0 0.00% £212.42 Buy

 EMED Mining Public Ld 5.38p 16.22% -6.84p n/a 0 0.00% £1.70 Overweight

 Emerging Metals Limited 5.88p 11.90% n/a n/a n/a n/a £19.43 n/a

 Empyrean Energy 5.62p 55.17% -2.30p n/a 0 0.00% £5.25 n/a

 Energybuild 16.50p -15.38% 0.70p 23.6 0 0.00% £21.45 Strong Buy

 Eurasia Mining 1.88p 50.00% -0.62p n/a 0 0.00% £2.65 n/a

 Eurasian Natural Resources 602.50p 46.77% 205.00¢ 4.3 0 3.50% £7,758.69 Overweight

 European Goldfields Limited 145.00p -21.41% 3.00¢ 71.1 n/a 0.00% £254.82 Buy

 European Nickel 8.00p 7.67% -6.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £37.66 n/a

 Everfor Diamonds 4.00p 0.00% -67.20p n/a 0 0.00% £0.20 n/a

 Finders Resources 16.00p 36.17% -7.52¢ n/a 0 0.00% £14.54 n/a

 Firestone Diamonds 22.75p 49.18% -0.40p n/a 0 0.00% £14.04 n/a

 Forte Energy 5.38p 53.57% -0.40¢ n/a 0 0.00% £23.90 n/a

 Fresnillo 486.75p 7.39% 18.61¢ 38.5 n/a 1.90% £3,490.78 Buy

 Frontier Mining (Reg S) 1.57p 162.50% -3.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £3.44 n/a

 Galantas Gold Corporation 2.12p -26.09% -1.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £3.90 n/a

 GCM Resources 55.00p -7.56% 1.80p 30.6 0 0.00% £28.06 n/a

 Gem Diamonds 129.25p -15.66% -74.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £178.34 Neutral

 Gemfields Resources 4.62p 68.18% -25.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £14.98 n/a

 Gladstone Pacific Nickel 15.00p -6.25% -22.07¢ n/a 0 0.00% £10.64 n/a

 Glencar Mining 4.38p -10.25% -0.23¢ n/a 0 0.00% £13.22 n/a

 Globe Speciality Metals (Reg S) $3.50 27.27% 100.00¢ 3.5 0 0.00% $222.11 n/a

 GMA Resources 3.50p 0.00% -1.20p n/a 0 0.00% £13.73 n/a

 Goldplat 12.00p 2.13% 0.95p 12.6 0.2 0.00% £13.45 n/a

 GoldStone Resources 0.45p -5.26% -0.60¢ n/a 0 0.00% £0.60 n/a

 Greatland Gold 0.72p 16.00% -0.21p n/a 0 0.00% £1.42 n/a

 Green Dragon Gas $6.12 0.00% -9.30¢ n/a 0 0.00% $664.64 Strong Buy

 Greystar Resources 190.00p -10.59% -48.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £105.83 Neutral

 Griffin Mining 27.75p 16.84% 12.08¢ 3.4 n/a 7.35% £50.39 Strong Buy

 Hambledon Mining 4.38p 6.06% -1.04p n/a 0 0.00% £20.53 Neutral

 Herencia Resources 0.50p 42.86% -0.22p n/a 0 0.00% £3.04 n/a

 Hidefield 0.75p -14.29% -0.84p n/a 0 0.00% £2.09 n/a

 Highland Gold Mining 55.25p 32.34% 6.10¢ 13.3 n/a 0.00% £179.67 Sell

 Hochschild Mining 217.25p 19.20% 8.00¢ 39.9 n/a 1.25% £667.72 Sell

 Horizonte Minerals 6.00p 17.07% -3.70p n/a 0 0.00% £2.43 n/a

 JSC Polymetal $6.27 -11.57% -7.40¢ n/a 0 0.00% $1,975.05 n/a

 Jubilee Platinum 12.75p 45.71% -3.45p n/a 0 0.00% £14.34 Neutral

 Kalahari Minerals 111.00p 32.14% -7.40p n/a 0 0.00% £198.59 Strong Buy

 Kalimantan Gold 6.00p 0.00% -3.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £3.70 n/a

 Karelian Diamond Resources 3.50p 7.69% -0.46¢ n/a 0 0.00% £2.12 n/a

 Kazakhmys 515.50p 41.91% 227.00¢ 3.3 n/a 1.85% £2,759.16 Underweight

 KEFI Minerals 1.38p 0.00% -0.020p n/a 0 0.00% £2.59 n/a

 Kenmare Resources 19.25p 132.49% 0.045¢ 629.1 0 0.00% £153.10 n/a

 Kirkland Lake Gold 447.50p 26.95% -6.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £261.00 n/a

 Kopane Diamond Developments 13.50p 500.00% -8.50p n/a 0 0.00% £29.65 Strong Buy

 Kryso Resources 7.62p 29.79% -1.25¢ n/a 0 0.00% £6.81 n/a

 Landore Resources 10.25p -4.65% -2.80p n/a 0 0.00% £18.57 n/a

 Lapp Plats 17.50p -20.45% 0.12p 145.8 0 0.00% £4.09 n/a

 Leyshon Resources 3.75p 15.38% -4.80¢ n/a 0 0.00% £8.09 Strong Buy

 Lithic Metals and Energy 2.50p 25.00% -1.00p n/a 0 0.00% £3.16 n/a

 Lonmin 1,391.00p -5.50% 351.90¢ 5.8 0.3 2.88% £2,195.22 Sell

 Maghreb Minerals 1.75p -6.67% -1.96p n/a 0 0.00% £1.59 n/a

 Mano River Resources 4.38p 29.63% 0.011¢ 588.7 0 0.00% £13.90 Strong Buy

 Mariana Resources 4.50p 125.00% -4.10p n/a 0 0.00% £2.95 n/a

 Medusa Mining 80.50p 7.33% -0.90¢ n/a 0 0.00% £134.12 Strong Buy

 Mercator Gold 4.88p 50.00% -50.90p n/a 0 0.00% £3.54 n/a

 Metals Exploration 13.75p 22.22% -3.55p n/a 0 0.00% £22.73 n/a

 Minco 3.38p 107.69% -1.69¢ n/a 0 0.00% £7.05 n/a

 Minera IRL 66.00p 5.60% -18.40¢ n/a 0 0.00% £40.84 Overweight

 Monterrico Metals 72.50p -3.33% -41.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £19.07 Strong Sell

 Moto Goldmines 153.50p -1.92% n/a n/a n/a n/a £133.42 Overweight

 Moydow Mines International 5.00p -9.09% -2.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £2.83 n/a

 Mwana Africa 5.08p 11.40% -2.43p n/a 0 0.00% £20.69 n/a

 Namakwa Diamonds 33.00p 109.52% -37.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £39.30 Neutral

 Namibian Resources 1.88p 15.38% -0.78p n/a 0 0.00% £0.75 n/a

 Nautilus Minerals Inc. (DI) 66.50p 11.76% -55.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £103.45 Strong Buy

 New World Resources 260.75p 7.42% 130.00¢ 2.2 0 15.93% £687.86 Underweight

 Norseman Gold 15.50p 10.71% -9.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £22.64 n/a

 North River Resources 1.75p 40.00% -0.37p n/a 0 0.00% £1.19 n/a

 Noventa 14.50p -6.45% -47.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £5.72 n/a

 Obtala Resources 27.75p 0.91% n/a n/a n/a n/a £51.88 n/a

 OJSC Polyus Gold ADR $23.85 -0.62% n/a n/a n/a n/a $4,546.47 n/a

 Ormonde Mining 4.25p 25.74% -0.34¢ n/a 0 0.00% £9.21 n/a

 Orsu Metals Corporation 4.38p -5.41% -28.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £19.99 Strong Buy

 Ovoca Gold 4.13p 31.95% -0.25¢ n/a 0 0.00% £18.47 n/a

 Oxus Gold 7.64p 15.06% -11.23¢ n/a 0 0.00% £29.31 n/a

 Palmaris Capital 3.25p 44.44% -0.080p n/a 0 0.00% £5.07 n/a

 Pan African Resources 4.12p 3.12% -0.11p n/a 0 0.00% £45.89 Strong Buy

 Pan Pacific Aggregates 0.53p -4.55% -3.60p n/a 0 0.00% £1.59 n/a

 Pangea DiamondFields 2.10p 27.27% -8.64¢ n/a 0 0.00% £35.46 n/a

 Patagonia Gold 11.25p 18.42% -1.86p n/a 0 0.00% £66.77 n/a

 Peninsular Gold 31.00p -21.52% -3.17p n/a 0 0.00% £17.12 n/a

 Persian Gold 4.50p -14.29% -0.66p n/a 0 0.00% £3.36 n/a

 Peter Hambro Mining 600.00p 29.03% 27.10¢ 32.6 n/a 0.85% £1,026.50 Overweight

 Petmin 12.75p 15.91% R15.31 10.8 0.1 0.00% £69.43 Strong Buy

 Petra Diamonds 40.00p 42.86% -3.17¢ n/a 0 0.00% £73.57 Overweight

 Platinum Australia 42.50p 32.81% -5.30¢ n/a 0 0.00% £105.00 Overweight

 Platmin 50.00p -3.85% -3,285.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £176.32 Overweight

 Polo Resources 3.33p -8.90% -1.12¢ n/a 0 0.00% £68.85 n/a

 Rambler Metals and Mining 12.25p 13.95% -1.40p n/a 0 0.00% £7.27 Strong Buy

 Randgold Resources 3,362.00p -8.29% 54.00¢ 91.6 n/a 0.26% £2,577.64 Overweight

 Red Rock Resources 1.12p 4.65% 0.040p 28.1 0 0.00% £4.97 n/a

 Regency Mines 1.10p 0.00% -0.26p n/a 0 0.00% £3.51 n/a

 Ridge Mining 84.00p 61.54% 18.30¢ 6.8 0.4 0.00% £77.34 Overweight

 Rio Tinto 2,694.00p 21.41% 802.70¢ 4.9 0.1 3.43% £26,903.08 Neutral

 Rusina Mining NL 4.00p 77.78% -0.66¢ n/a 0 0.00% £9.69 n/a

 Serabi Mining 1.25p 19.05% -0.100¢ n/a 0 0.00% £1.75 n/a

 ShalkiyaZinc N.V GDR $0.40 0.00% n/a n/a n/a n/a $22.60 Strong Sell

 Shanta Gold 3.62p 45.00% -5.02¢ n/a 0 0.00% £3.68 n/a

 Sirius Exploration 2.50p 11.11% -1.00p n/a 0 0.00% £3.29 n/a

 Solomon Gold 5.12p -12.77% -4.43¢ n/a 0 0.00% £3.35 Strong Buy

 Strategic Natural Resources 9.75p -15.22% -1.11p n/a 0 0.00% £6.67 n/a

 Stratex International 2.00p -11.11% -0.39p n/a 0 0.00% £4.68 n/a

 Sunkar Resources 16.00p 116.80% -1.31¢ n/a 0 0.00% £25.58 n/a

 Sunrise Diamonds 0.75p 57.89% -0.45p n/a 0 0.00% £1.40 n/a

 Sylvania Resources 48.50p 19.75% 5.64¢ 17.5 0 0.00% £88.11 Strong Buy

 Tanzanite One 20.00p 25.00% 8.96¢ 3.3 0 34.00% £14.70 n/a

 Target Resources 1.88p -11.76% -5.84p n/a 0 0.00% £2.32 n/a

 Tertiary Minerals 2.75p 4.76% -1.27p n/a 0 0.00% £2.09 Strong Buy

 Thor Mining 1.38p 48.65% -0.76p n/a 0 0.00% £2.36 n/a

 Tiger Resource Finance 2.20p 39.68% 0.39p 5.6 0 0.00% £3.80 n/a

 Titanium Resources 5.25p 40.00% -52.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £12.32 Neutral

 Toledo Mining Corporation 25.75p 77.59% 3.43p 7.5 0 0.00% £7.61 n/a

 Trans-Siberian Gold 36.50p 58.70% -10.47¢ n/a 0 0.00% £30.99 Strong Buy

 UK Coal 106.25p 32.40% 59.90p 1.8 0 0.00% £167.08 Buy

 UMC Energy 3.62p 0.00% -4.73p n/a 0 0.00% £1.12 n/a

 Uruguay Mineral Exploration 20.00p 5.26% 16.00¢ 1.8 n/a 5.66% £9.73 Strong Sell

 Vane Minerals 5.12p 36.67% -0.91p n/a 0 0.00% £11.57 n/a

 Vedanta Resources 992.00p 48.50% 303.90¢ 4.8 n/a 2.84% £2,759.72 Neutral

 Water Hall Group 3.25p 0.00% 1.62p 2 0 0.00% £1.84 n/a

 Weatherly International 1.65p 29.41% -13.15¢ n/a 0 0.00% £6.69 n/a

 West African Diamonds 3.62p 11.54% -0.58p n/a 0 0.00% £2.48 n/a

 Western Canadian Coal Corporation 46.00p -1.08% -95.00¢ n/a 0 0.00% £78.40 Overweight

 Xstrata 600.00p 30.29% 277.38¢ 3.2 n/a 1.15% £17,598.07 Overweight

 Yamana Gold Inc 562.50p -12.79% 63.00¢ 13.1 0.2 1.78% £3,658.23 Overweight

 Zeehan Zinc 1.35p 28.57% -15.48¢ n/a 0 0.00% £6.12 n/a

 ZincOx 57.50p 64.29% 23.33p 2.5 0 0.00% £44.61 Strong Buy

 

[drbubb]

Junior Uranium stocks are looking pretty strong recently

[littledavesab]

Minesite article

 

http://www.minesite.com/nc/minews/singlene...Hash=dfed1f9150

 

Taking The Pulse Of London’s Small Cap Mining Scene At This Year’s Master Investor Show: The Prognosis Is Good

[Oddball]

This guy really doesn't like Seabridge.

 

Seabridge Gold is a stock we first met in late 2008. Unfortunately our view from that time has not changed, and, if anything has hardened. Nice company but pity about its grand plan. Essentially Seabridge hopes that one of the majors (which means less than a handful of likely parties but in reality two names) will acquire the company for $1bn plus and then shall expend over $3.5 bn in a buildout process lasting almost a decade to bring its project to fruition. The problem with this concept is that there are no half measures. There is no scaleability. There is no “lets do it on the cheap while waiting for Moneybags to arrive”. There is nothing doing until one of the potential parties breaks ranks and puts money on the table. Until that time it is just a one-way flow of money going out on more reserve definition and ever more complex mine plans (as if an underground conveyor belt through a mountain range for 20kms isn’t complex enough). With a current market cap of US$1.12bn this stock looks expensive even compared to stocks we don’t like such as Gammon Gold. Frankly Seabridge should use its overvalued stock to bid for other companies. Is it no surprise that the Friedberg/Fronk crew are targeting Paramount Gold as their “real” play while leaving Seabridge sitting there like the fat girl at the dance?

 

Model Mining Portfolio: Gold Mine News

[vssmnn]

Very nice move, I hope u have some (I Dont)!

 

I see:

 

Kopane Diamond Developments PLC said it was notified that shareholder Obtala Resources PLC holds 59.67 million shares in the company, or 27.17 percent of the issued share capital.

 

Advantagous fundraising for Obtala (@3.5p !) or Do you think a bid might be coming?

 

http://www.obtalaresources.co.uk/content/p...hive/300309.asp

 

 

Kopane today:

 

[139Peter]

Hi

 

I think your last few sentences hit the nail on the head, the monies have otherwise been diverted. Not the only reason for the lack of action from small miners, the risk factor is playing a big part too. One other factors to consider, perhaps the only finance available to small miners at present is coming from lenders of last resort and when you look at what happened to Cambridge Mineral resources and Eagle Mining due to ridiculous loan agreements from a rather large hedgefund (BlueCrest Capital) this to might be playing a part in companies unwilling to risk borrowing to expand operations.

[drbubb]

WEAK LEADERS, Little Following (so far) from Canadian venture stocks (CDNX)

 

Gold and Gold shares look very weak.

Look at the heavy volume on those red candles (from yesterday) down into & thru the Bolly Bands

 

Updates : GLD : GDX : CDNX : GDXJ : advfn-charts

 

Those sorts of heavy fall normally continue.

The falls have dragged the Juniors down - GDXJ is 16% off its top* (more than Gold.)

 

But CDNX is mostly unscathed so far, only about 3-4% off its top.

 

== ==

 

*this is consistent with another pattern - new indices often get launched near tops in those indices.

(I can remember some of the FOPPs saying that the new Gold Junior index would help Gold Juniors.

In fact, it helped some holders to unload near the top.)

[Wanderer]

Big pop up 13% from Luna Gold today but I can't see any news on the tickers? Time to sell or does someone know something we don't..... Edit 17% now

[DoctorSolar]

Big pop up 13% from Luna Gold today but I can't see any news on the tickers? Time to sell or does someone know something we don't..... Edit 17% now

Juniors getting totally thumped today... surely not the start of another 2008 style crash?

 

Im finding it extremely tough to buy this weakness which is usually a good sign that this is a buy... time will tell

 

EDIT: nervously bought some more GDXJ

[Wanderer]

Does anyone else own Hawthorne Gold Corporation - CVE:HGC . I bought a bunch of minor miners in February 2009 and this has been the only dog. Now 60% down. Time to give up? Or is it worth holding as a loss in case it comes back to former glories (previously 30 times higher than this a few years ago).

[Wanderer]

Does anyone else own Hawthorne Gold Corporation - CVE:HGC . I bought a bunch of minor miners in February 2009 and this has been the only dog. Now 60% down. Time to give up? Or is it worth holding as a loss in case it comes back to former glories (previously 30 times higher than this a few years ago).

 

 

Anyone out there? Now down almost 80% and feel can't do worse than to hold onto it. Worth buying more?

[frizzers]

Hi Wanderer,

I bought this in Feb 2009 or somewhere round then at, if I remember 40c, and it moved up to around 50 or so where I sold. Since then they raised money at too low a price, diluted the stock and have now basically run out of money, I think. I stopped following them. I know they had to let their IR person go. I think they're out of cash and don't want to raise at too low a price, but the chart looks awful. I wouldn't buy more that's for sure.

[drbubb]

A Great Chance - to unload those Juniors and Exploration stocks?

 

We may be seeing that now. CDNX may peak between 1900 and 2000. Ideally: 1950-70?

 

The CDNX (Canadian Venture Index) ... http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=ca%3Acdnx&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comp=gld%2Cspx%2Chui&ma=0&maval=18%2C52%2C126&uf=0&lf=268435456&lf2=2&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=11&sid=1002675&style=320&freq=2&startdate=3%2F31%2F2004&enddate=6%2F30%2F2011&nosettings=1&rand=5562&mocktick=1

: updated

 

The CDNX is still rising ...while GLD and HUI are coming off their highs

 

CDNX Monthly ... http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=cdnx&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=4&maval=18%2C%2C48%2C%2C78&uf=0&lf=2&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=128&size=3&state=8&sid=1002675&style=320&freq=3&startdate=10%2F4%2F2001&enddate=12%2F31%2F2011&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=9777&mocktick=1

 

CDNX Weekly ... http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=cdnx&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=4&maval=18%2C%2C52%2C%2C200&uf=0&lf=268435456&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&state=8&sid=1002675&style=320&time=12&freq=2&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=6123&mocktick=1 : CDNX-2yr-D : CDNX-6mo-D : CDNX-10d

xx

 

Creeping up the the cliff's edge?

 

CDNX Daily ... CDNX-6mo-D :

image: http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/9203/cdnxd6m.gif