alexreeve Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 That thread is unbeleivable, folks if you want to gage what the dumb people of today think of gold, just read that thread, everyone licking each others arses shouting defaltion, gold metdown, crash, yipee, we are right HAAAAA, blah blah blah. If they're not in why such excitement? These people actually believe a 2 day correction is the sign of an end to an 8 year boom, even thoguh the fundamentals are still in tact and no catalysts has been stated. I think I will bookmark that thread and refer to it several times on their site when gold continues to shine and eventually wins as the ultimtae store of value and the only true currency. In fact as I am buying at the moment i might post that I am buying and refer to that specific post also - then agaion maybe not, i don;t actually think I can be bottherd to even type the url into my browser or click on any links to it. The site has degenrated into a crazed frenzy of single minded neanderthals, the worst mistake they could possibly have made was to lose their gold posters at HPC as we were making a counter argument and discussion ro rheir deluded deflation/gold meltdown/slight recession/ sheeple thoughts, now they just pat each other on the back and tell each other how great they are for realising deflation is an axiom and gold was/is in a bubble. Crazy. I'm so glad the gold thread is dead there, that site doesn't deserve one, I say let them fail in their ignorance. I like having a counter argument, in many ways I wish there were some contrarians on this thread. Most of the posts on that thread really are just drivel though, proclaiming a sea-change in investments with no rationale... Re: Silver and gold moving in tandem, looks like silver is still dying while gold is ticking up a bit now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I like having a counter argument, in many ways I wish there were some contrarians on this thread. Most of the posts on that thread really are just drivel though, proclaiming a sea-change in investments with no rationale... Re: Silver and gold moving in tandem, looks like silver is still dying while gold is ticking up a bit now? As do we all, we need the counters to reinforce our own beliefs/ideas, counter arguments however are discussed thorughtought the WWW, there is no need to engage with that rabble. I would Expect and hope GEI counters would have more decorum - if they existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wheelybin Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Re: Silver and gold moving in tandem, looks like silver is still dying while gold is ticking up a bit now? Seems to be ticking down from where I'm sitting (in GBP) In CHF or Yen, gold is back below its November peak now. Such a precipitous drop is a bit disconcering. It doesn't give you much time to act. Still I'm averaging in for the time being. I don't really see what's changed to cause the turnaround. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Re: Silver and gold moving in tandem, looks like silver is still dying while gold is ticking up a bit now? Yes, I'd noticed that also. Seemed a bit ironic after mentioning them being in synch earlier... If the world can make me out to look like an idiot, it never misses its chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 As I said yesterday keep an eye on US short term treasuries, they are at a 50Y low. The bond market doesn't believe any more inflation is possible and Ben is fighting a losing battle. Look for the dow to go down below 12K today as confirmation. Look for short term treasury yields to start increasing before buying any more gold or silver. As usual do your own due diligence. Job claims rose again today. For more inflation and ultimately hyperinflation we are going to have to start seeing wage inflation. Without wage inflation we are ultimately going to see deflation, recession, and if the banks start to keel over a depression. Remember Gold and Silver do very well in a depression - as it is the ultimate store of wealth that can't default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Isn't it usually around now that the second cups of coffee are starting to have their effect in NY? Over the last few weeks/months, when gold has been steadily rising, many smackdowns seemed to happen between nowish (2pm UK time) and a couple of hours from now. If it still looks steady (or maybe rising) in a couple of hours, I'd wondered if that that might not be a bad time for a modest purchase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 As I said yesterday keep an eye on US short term treasuries, they are at a 50Y low. The bond market doesn't believe any more inflation is possible and Ben is fighting a losing battle. Look for the dow to go down below 12K today as confirmation. Look for short term treasury yields to start increasing before buying any more gold or silver. As usual do your own due diligence. Job claims rose again today. For more inflation and ultimately hyperinflation we are going to have to start seeing wage inflation. Without wage inflation we are ultimately going to see deflation, recession, and if the banks start to keel over a depression. Remember Gold and Silver do very well in a depression - as it is the ultimate store of wealth that can't default. How are financial institutions going to keel over when CBs [take them over][give someone else the money to take them over][change their capital adequacy requirements][take worthless bonds and swap them for cash at face value]* to prevent it? *Delete as appropriate I do agree that deflation should occur if the natural free market was allowed to play out, but the super-interventionist approach in US/UK seems to preclude that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I'm not paying much mind to the very negative technical analysis that the talking heads on Gloomberg trot out to talk down gold and oil - all of these guys are wearing threadbare £129.99 suits and ties from Asda fer cryin' out loud and, more importantly, TA simply cannot predict events of the magnitude that we've seen in the last week or so. There was one bit of sense talked today on Bloomberg ~12:50pm on Morning Call - Francisco Blanch (Head of Global Commodities) openly stated that the parallel drop in commodities was due to margin calls needing to be fulfilled (I think he even stated CDO's) and profit taking to cover other losses. He also made the point that with the $'s status as No.1 reserve currency under threat economies would move to using what he termed 'a basket of reserve currencies' & he included gold in that basket. That gold was still a favoured investment despite the volutility and the fundamentals were still in place. Finally he said that there is the 'potential' to start seeing the Asian banks jumping into gold as an alternative to the $. My BV position is now back to where it was 05/01/08 (gulp!) - my first experience of a correction so I know how it feels now - bl00dy awful! Using this as a buying opportunity with a GoldMoney account - so there is an upside to this me hopes Let's see if I can mistime the bottom as badly as I timed the top! SafeBetter BTW for any that are interested CNBC Fri 21/03 12:00pm "Warren Buffett: The Billionaire - programme following Mr Buffett as he pursues his interests in China & South Korea" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Bullion Vault have their say: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1024411. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 How are financial institutions going to keel over when CBs [take them over][give someone else the money to take them over][change their capital adequacy requirements][take worthless bonds and swap them for cash at face value]* to prevent it? *Delete as appropriate I do agree that deflation should occur if the natural free market was allowed to play out, but the super-interventionist approach in US/UK seems to preclude that. I am just telling you how I read the bond market right now at 50Y lows for short term treasuries. The bond market is not expecting the Fed to do this, otherwise they would be pricing in more inflation, but they aren't. Now, the bond market could reverse. I agree that according to the Fed deflation is not an option, however, they may come a point when the Fed loses control and it doesn't matter what they want anymore. Remember, Bernanke wrote his thesis on the Great Depression, and you have to wonder why he was picked for the job, and that he may be guiding us into a depression softly. Either way, Gold will not default, so it is really your only method of storing wealth (apart from cash under the mattress of course) which could be futile if they do decide to switch to the amero or euro. It is no coincidence that the dollar and pound are both performing the worst out of all currencies in the industrialized world, and both are heavily rumored to switch to other monetary bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 My BV position is now back to where it was 05/01/08 (gulp!) - my first experience of a correction so I know how it feels now - bl00dy awful! Oh yes . . . it's nasty. I bought in fairly early near $700 gold and $13 for silver and this has shown me the other side of the coin. It's made me wish I'd sold off silver as I watched it hit $21+ on Sunday night as Asian markets opened. Ah well "coulda, woulda, shoulda" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 So, usually, price spikes in Asia overnight get wiped out in NY trading. However, price slumps in Asia overnight do not get reverted in New York. I wonder: Could it be New York is somewhat biased? :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I am just telling you how I read the bond market right now at 50Y lows for short term treasuries. The bond market is not expecting the Fed to do this, otherwise they would be pricing in more inflation, but they aren't. ... Pluto, I don't agree with you here. I think people who park money in bonds simply don't know any better. I do not think the market is giving us the right idea here (no efficiency here, IMHO). People just buy Treasuries because they can not think of anything else 'safe'. But that's only my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted March 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Every day another piece of the market implodes. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home March 20 (Bloomberg) -- CIT Group Inc., the largest independent U.S. commercial finance company, dropped as much as 42 percent after Fitch ratings said the company's access to unsecured short-term debt has become ``materially constrained.'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 The volatility at the moment is simply astounding. I just noticed Platinum shooting up markedly... Now, studying the chart, is it me or are those pesky meddlers trying to form a pair of platinum boobies today?!? http://www.kitco.com/charts/liveplatinum.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dst Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Bullion Vault have their say: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1024411. Ha! You beat me to it. Like teacher telling off the children. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Pluto, I don't agree with you here. I think people who park money in bonds simply don't know any better. I do not think the market is giving us the right idea here (no efficiency here, IMHO). People just buy Treasuries because they can not think of anything else 'safe'. But that's only my opinion. I don't think you should dismiss the huge bond market because they simply don't know any better. I am just pointing out for those not paying attention, that the short term US treasuries hit a 50Y low just after the IRs in the US were slashed by 100bps. Now, of course the bond market could have it wrong and inflation expectations will surface and therefore yields will increase, but that is not what is happening right now. It could be that today is options expiry day and end on month/quarter and financial companies want to show treasuries on their balance sheets..I don't really know, but let's not lose sight of this as a potential reason Gold got smackdowned the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Ha! You beat me to it. Like teacher telling off the children. Here comes another flurry of solicitors letters. hehe They want them to stop talking about Gold but they wont, and now the owner of BV is even joining the fray. What next? Krusty and Phil signing up. Now that would be funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Oh yes . . . it's nasty. I bought in fairly early near $700 gold and $13 for silver and this has shown me the other side of the coin. It's made me wish I'd sold off silver as I watched it hit $21+ on Sunday night as Asian markets opened. Ah well "coulda, woulda, shoulda" Before someone spots this one as we are not back to 05/01 levels - my profit is wiped out due to a recent purchases - so much for £ cost averaging! Still holding tight - even if it takes years to make a profit ( I sound like a BTL landlord!!). I think this has taught me that perhaps I need to be a little less risk averse (might have to change my Avatar ) and perhaps sell out 50% of my holding when 'I feel' it's a peak - even at the risk of missing more upside. Less painful to buy back in the on the up and miss 1-2% gain as opposed to a 12% drop! SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I just noticed Platinum shooting up markedly... Now, studying the chart, is it me or are those pesky meddlers trying to form a pair of platinum boobies today?!? http://www.kitco.com/charts/liveplatinum.html You've definitely been staring at the charts for too long!! SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Bullion Vault have their say: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1024411. Blimey. Just 12 hours ago I was answering to gold comments at "that site" (forget the thread, probably the same one) and when typing prior to posting, I actually typed a challenge to people to say outright if they really meant to claim that BullionVault was a fraudulent company, which has repeatedly been implied in an underhand manner. And that it might unfortunately add to the many solicitors' letters which the owners of "that site" say they have received already this year. As the post was quoting and answering a post which was not guilty of such, on second thoughts, I deleted that challenging paragraph before posting (I'm not sure whether my otherwise unnotable comment was posted). In the last few days I've posted over there trying to correct extreme, and possibly slanderous suggestions, but my posts don't always appear. Thanks for posting that link. I'm so pleased that BV has answered in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Before someone spots this one as we are not back to 05/01 levels - my profit is wiped out due to a recent purchases - so much for £ cost averaging! Still holding tight - even if it takes years to make a profit ( I sound like a BTL landlord!!). I think this has taught me that perhaps I need to be a little less risk averse (might have to change my Avatar ) and perhaps sell out 50% of my holding when 'I feel' it's a peak - even at the risk of missing more upside. Less painful to buy back in the on the up and miss 1-2% gain as opposed to a 12% drop! SafeBetter The commodity markets are brutal. Pull up a five chart of oil to see what a roller coaster it can be. I think is it is designed that way to keep most conservative investors out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dietcolaaddict Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I've learnt a lot about gold+silver this week (I'm definitely holding onto my physical gold for the next year or two plus regardless). This volatility is survivable for me (40% savings in PMs, bought in over time - including recently - to an average $930) and I’m still convinced by the long term arguments. But I think Joe Public will be scared off by this correction, especially given its proximity to the smashing of the $1000 barrier. I don’t expect any more “Invest in gold” articles in the press for a while that’s for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 I am just telling you how I read the bond market right now at 50Y lows for short term treasuries. The bond market is not expecting the Fed to do this, otherwise they would be pricing in more inflation, but they aren't. Now, the bond market could reverse. I agree that according to the Fed deflation is not an option, however, they may come a point when the Fed loses control and it doesn't matter what they want anymore. Remember, Bernanke wrote his thesis on the Great Depression, and you have to wonder why he was picked for the job, and that he may be guiding us into a depression softly. Either way, Gold will not default, so it is really your only method of storing wealth (apart from cash under the mattress of course) which could be futile if they do decide to switch to the amero or euro. It is no coincidence that the dollar and pound are both performing the worst out of all currencies in the industrialized world, and both are heavily rumored to switch to other monetary bases. I was actually offering "How can the deflation happen when the banks aren't allowed to suffer the consequences?" as a genuine question. It seems a lot of people who certainly sound like they know more about finance than me, feel it is inevitable, and I just don't see how without a change in policy? Could it not be that treasury bonds are considered (right or wrong) the lowest counterparty risk that still generates an income and that is why they are so in demand? That it is not expectation of it being a profitable investment but rather a damage limitation exercise? I am aware of the apparent conflict between the two paragraphs above, which is partly why they are both phrased as questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted March 20, 2008 Report Share Posted March 20, 2008 Apologies if this has already been posted: http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfil...-19-2008_PM.pdf Seems concensus on the support levels of 1st $900-930 and then ~$860 - much as the chartists on GEI have shown us. What would be the chances of gold breaking out 'below' the major support of $860? SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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