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Here's a 40 year seasonal chart, which shows the best time is now.

 

GOLD.GIF

 

I thought it might be useful to be able to see the 'wrap around' of the first six months copied onto the end of the year. So, just in case anyone else will find it useful:

 

post-1176-1287661653_thumb.jpg

 

If one were a trader, this 'wrap around' makes it particularly clear that on average, one should stock up in August and sell up at the end of February (the change in price between the end of Feb and Aug is rather dwarfed by what had been the 'usual' growth from Aug to Feb).

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I thought it might be useful to be able to see the 'wrap around' of the first six months copied onto the end of the year. So, just in case anyone else will find it useful:

 

post-1176-1287661653_thumb.jpg

 

If one were a trader, this 'wrap around' makes it particularly clear that on average, one should stock up in August and sell up at the end of February (the change in price between the end of Feb and Aug is rather dwarfed by what had been the 'usual' growth from Aug to Feb).

 

By the way, is the implication of this chart that, on average, the price of gold has risen at around 9% per year for the last 40 years?

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Chris - that pic puts my mind to rest as the rouble is .999

I also have a 1/2 oz Maple with a copper spot. And a Sovereign too. And a Panda, but there it was actually more some kind of tiny piece of ash or something black that was stuck on/in the coin.

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Approximity chart of the month.

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html

 

Chart of the month (October 2010)

"Watch out for inflation." This chart needs almost no comment. What you see is the annual growth rate in the price of gold compared to the annual CPI rate in the U.S.

chart_of_month_1010.PNG

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Bit dated this, but fwiw the seasonal pattern has shown a dip going into November. Have a little more cash than I need so will be looking to make a purchase around the end of the month. Definitely my last purchase this time, as will have soon stopped earning an income. :)

 

Good luck mate. Keep us posted on your Adventures.

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I just checked Kitco, the interesting thing is I was not worried at all, I was hoping I might get a bargain.

 

Yeah, no need to panic if you are long gold. I've got a close eye on this correction and looking to buy more soon if its viable.

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Yeah, no need to panic if you are long gold. I've got a close eye on this correction and looking to buy more soon if its viable.

 

I just want to save, that's all - I have a good job and all I want is to move purchasing power from now to a future when I will be unable to earn.

 

I have ended up learning all sorts of monetary theory and just to try to achieve that I have to buy a volatile metal gold because cash depreciates even after interest.

 

Fiat money is an evil scam.

 

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Looks like $1300 is the next stop.

The rally trend still hasn't been broken, there is support at $1320.

 

20101021-n25hs3pp7je3kh1imxr932fygg.jpg

 

 

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The rally trend still hasn't been broken, there is support at $1320.

 

20101021-n25hs3pp7je3kh1imxr932fygg.jpg

Touched the trendline ($1320) on the 1hr graph, have we seen the bottom? Rally into Friday?

 

20101021-1knq9mf1mt4ipb62tbdg9w3wye.jpg

 

 

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I have been running a separate thread regarding some technical analysis indicators I am developing/testing, so far I've been using it on stocks, ETFs etc with some encouraging results. Without going into a long spiel it measures the value of a specific underlying in what I think may be a unique way that allows me to draw conclusions as to whether it is over or under extended in terms of current price. Part of the theory behind it is that a price will only be allowed to extend so far relative to other prices in the marketplace. Another way to look at it is this: If you think gold's true current market value should be $2000 then whilst that may or may not be a correct opinion, if it is correct then in my view that can only be correct where you have an environment with different prices for the dollar, commodities, bonds, stocks and currencies.

 

My indicator is here in black, with GLD in blue

 

Screenshot2010-10-21at233011.png

 

Where I find a double top or bottom in my indicator, that leads to a sell or buy signal, respectively. Now before you all shoot me down, there is a very long term double top on my indicator and it has coincided with the recent high in gold. Only the very first double top coincided with a marked drop in the gold price, you will see the other double tops, whilst they resulted in drops, they have been muted, including this one so far. The double bottoms were nice buy points.

 

I am more interested in double bottoms here, for entry points, I will post the next time I see one.

 

And here again, this time on GDX, indicator in black, GDX in blue, a different set of double tops/bottoms.

 

Screenshot2010-10-21at235631.png

 

I only developed this in recent weeks, I didn't have it for the great entry into GDX it gave at the end of July. I was already long GDX and GDXJ from earlier anyway.

 

Just a different slant on things.

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Is this a good buy in point? Who's buying here?

full.gif

 

Gold could easily consolidate to 1250 here. I'll be holding off from buying for now, but will set a mental reverse stop loss in place at about $25 above the lowest dip. When/ if the price bounces through that, will pull the trigger.

 

 

pr.gif

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full.gif

 

Gold could easily consolidate to 1250 here. I'll be holding off from buying for now, but will set a mental reverse stop loss in place at about $25 above the lowest dip. When/ if the price bounces through that, will pull the trigger.

 

 

pr.gif

 

Yeah, I for one am hoping we are still in the bumbling up, and down with a gradual drift up part of this bull market.

 

If it gonna be really big the big spike and final crash will be years away.

 

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http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN...Weak_Hands.html

“Probably the best picture of gold is seen in the weekly chart (above). I'm using GLD as a proxy for gold. It looks to me as though gold could decline until it has reached the oversold state, hopefully above the rising blue trendline. There were just too many consecutive weeks of rise without a correction. Now we are getting the correction.”

October 21, 2010

 

Russell continues:

 

“As for gold, December gold lost 36 points on Tuesday's sell-off. On Wednesday gold recovered just one-quarter of its Tuesday losses, with gold closing near its high for the day. Today, Thursday, gold continues its correction. This is the gut-check which knocks out most of the "Johnny come latelies." Too many advertisements have appeared telling the public how to "solve your retirement problems by buying gold.” When it looks too easy, the market gives you something to calm your enthusiasm.

 

"No tree grows to the sky." Gold has risen an astounding ten out of the last eleven weeks. Therefore, it's only natural that traders are betting for a correction. For this reason, gold is down almost every night in the after-market as traders ready themselves for the long expected correction -- the correction that never seemed to come.

 

However, the fact is that gold is heavily overbought and the dollar is extremely oversold. I'm thinking that the resolution of this puzzle could be an extended period of consolidation in gold, in other words, a long sideways movement, preparatory to the next upward leg in gold. Consolidations often start with a sharp break, such as the one we witnessed (Tuesday).”

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A late downturn, may mean a later bottom to the post-October dip.

comex.png

 

Please take this with a grain of salt, since it is unlikely to exactly fit the historical seasonal pattern.

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Rightly or wrongly I have long since viewed gold as a stable currency which fiat paper moves in relation to. It made things easier in my mind to treat gold as a stable currency or a constant and I know that I am not alone.

 

An interesting piece here about gold, the way that many of us view it http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/10/...erspective.html

 

edit; sorry, wrong link. This is the source piece http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives...ce-of-gold.html

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snapshot20101024103941.png

Double top?

 

If one looks at the gold chart in USD, GBP and many other currencies there have been "double tops" all over this past decade. The "double tops" will continue as gold sets new highs, retraces, goes back to the recent high, and then beyond.

 

That chart also looks like a cup-and-handle; and the cup-and-handle interpretation is supported by the fundamentals of monetary debasement.

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