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The idiots who come up with these kind of headlines would not even notice a real bubble until the exact moment that they lost their dot.com portfolio or got their BTL empire repossessed.

How could gold become a bubble today? Bubbles are found in assets.... gold is now a currency.

 

edited

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I'm surprised that RB isn't all over this announcement.

 

 

You will go blind reading papers like that.....

 

Realsit bear would be all over an article about gold apearing from nothing, not disapearing.

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You will go blind reading papers like that.....

 

Realsit bear would be all over an article about gold apearing from nothing, not disapearing.

Wait! If it disappears into nothing here, won't it then appear out of nothing somewhere else? :wacko:

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Wait! If it disappears into nothing here, won't it then appear out of nothing somewhere else? :wacko:

 

Are you scheming a heist goldfinger??

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pointless.gif

 

Kind of seems pointless to trade this. The chart shows the dollar steadily depreciating against gold. Why would you "take profits" by selling a strengthening currency for a weakening one.

 

 

 

It makes more sense to trade silver [if you're looking for a serious correction]. Buy and hold gold, trade silver against [or for] dollars.

 

3year.gif

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Gold has been flatlining over the past 1.5 days.

 

Is something brewing? :unsure:

 

EDIT: Thanksgiving, of course!

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Gold has been flatlining over the past 1.5 days.

 

Is something brewing? :unsure:

IMO gold is holding up better than the Greek crisis of a year ago.

 

Don't think people will fall for the same trick again

 

I'll let George explain it better.

 

From:

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...

What we have seen is rally period, with gains averaging 0.13% per day, have so far ALWAYS been corrected,

with drops retracing an average of 50-55% of the price gain.

 

The only exception since at least 1999 has been the present rally, which I assume will ghet retraced too.

 

I think is is against logic and history to expect something different.

This is disputable. With QE to infinity declared and practiced openly by the two major global central banks, the fundamentals have seen a seismographic shift since the last gold corrections.

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It's that time of the year... Thanksgiving is behind us.

 

GOM is not here anymore, but he was looking forward to it.

 

EDIT: Ho, ho, ho!

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Another thought:

 

- The US tried to de-monetize gold in 1971 and did so to some extent.

- Oil took over from gold over the next decade or so.

- In the 90s, gold was dead, oil was the game.

- In the commodities rise so far, oil has seen the devastating sell-off (in 2008), not so much gold.

 

=> Thesis: the 1974 gold crash has been repeated in oil in 2008. It therefore won't happen in gold.

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llllll.gif

 

 

Dollar rallying, gold coming off a little. Will be interesting to see if the previous pattern holds. On the previous dollar rally, gold first came off a little then turned back up to strengthen along with the dollar. I'm sticking to 1300 support for now.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...any-itself.html

EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself

Friday, 26 November 2010

 

The escalating debt crisis on the eurozone periphery is starting to contaminate the creditworthiness of Germany and the core states of monetary union.

 

Credit default swaps (CDS) measuring risk on German, French and Dutch bonds have surged over recent days, rising significantly above the levels of non-EMU states in Scandinavia.

 

"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself," said Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University. "This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

...

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Another thought:

 

- The US tried to de-monetize gold in 1971 and did so to some extent.

- Oil took over from gold over the next decade or so.

- In the 90s, gold was dead, oil was the game.

- In the commodities rise so far, oil has seen the devastating sell-off (in 2008), not so much gold.

 

=> Thesis: the 1974 gold crash has been repeated in oil in 2008. It therefore won't happen in gold.

I see the 2008 sell-off in gold as 1974

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How could gold become a bubble today? Bubbles are found in assets.... gold is now a currency.....

 

edited

 

 

...that is finding a new natural 'level'.

 

??

 

edit:- or even .............that is reverting to its' natural 'level'.

 

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...that is finding a new natural 'level'.

 

??

 

edit:- or even .............that is reverting to its' natural 'level'.

You could say that. The free market system is monetizing it... governments may be forced to standardize it in the end. If money increasingly poured into gold, economies would be starved of capital.

 

Here's Hume's theory on the "price-specie-flow mechanism":

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_specie_flow_mechanism

The price-specie-flow mechanism is a logical argument by David Hume against the Mercantilist (1700-1776) idea that a nation should strive for a positive balance of trade, or net exports. The argument considers the effects of international transactions in a gold standard, a system in which gold is the official means of international payments and each nation’s currency is in the form of gold itself or of paper currency fully convertible into gold.

 

Hume argued that when a country with a gold standard had a positive balance of trade, gold would flow into the country in the amount that the value of exports exceeds the value of imports. Conversely, when such a country had a negative balance of trade, gold would flow out of the country in the amount that the value of imports exceeds the value of exports. Consequently, in the absence of any offsetting actions by the central bank on the quantity of money in circulation (called sterilization), the money supply would rise in a country with a positive balance of trade and fall in a country with a negative balance of trade. Using a theory called the quantity theory of money, Hume argued that in countries where the quantity of money increases, inflation would set in and the prices of goods and services would tend to rise while in countries where the money supply decreases, deflation would occur as the prices of goods and services fell.

 

The higher prices would, in the countries with a positive balance of trade, cause exports to decrease and imports to increase, which will alter the balance of trade downwards towards a neutral balance. Inversely, in countries with a negative balance of trade, the lower prices would cause exports to increase and imports to decrease, which will heighten the balance of trade towards a neutral balance. These adjustments in the balance of trade will continue until the balance of trade equals zero in all countries involved in the exchange.

 

The price-specie-flow mechanism can also be applied to a state's entire balance of payments, which accounts not only for the value of net exports and similar transactions (the current account), but also the financial account, which accounts for flows of financial assets across countries, and the capital account, which accounts for non-market and other special international transactions. But under a gold standard, transactions in the financial account would be conducted in gold or currency convertible into gold, which would also affect the quantity of money in circulation in each country.

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After the unsuccessful trial of gold standard, I doubt if we will ever see the same implemented again globally.

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After the unsuccessful trial of gold standard, I doubt if we will ever see the same implemented again globally.

 

Not a pure gold standard, no. But gold as part of a basket of other things, or a gold certificate ratio, or as a 'freegold' scenario -- yes.

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I thought they only had 20t left from the current sale mandate. Is that the last of it?

 

IMF sells 628,000 oz (19.5 tonnes) of IMF gold in Oct.

 

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Sep 2009 - 403.3 tonnes to sell

- IMF sold 212 tonnes to India, Sri Lanka and Mauritius

 

Feb 2010 - 191.3 tonnes to sell

- IMF sold 148.6 tonnes as of the end of Oct 2010.

 

Oct 2010 - 42.7 tonnes to sell

 

It should be finished in Jan 2011.

 

Reuters.com

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Sep 2009 - 403.3 tonnes to sell

- IMF sold 212 tonnes to India, Sri Lanka and Mauritius

 

Feb 2010 - 191.3 tonnes to sell

- IMF sold 148.6 tonnes as of the end of Oct 2010.

 

Oct 2010 - 42.7 tonnes to sell

 

It should be finished in Jan 2011.

 

Reuters.com

Imagine what happens to the price when they haven't got any left.

 

 

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