GOLD

[warpig]

I came across this again and thought it was worthy of a repost.

 

From:

[warpig]

I think we're very close to the bottom of this correction. Then off to the races..?

 

[d2thdr]

In the book 'Greatest Trade Ever' recommended by Errol- John Paulson called CDS on almost junk mortgage products as negative carry trade.

I think Gold fits this description perfectly.

[crushtherents]

My exact thought on reading his posts. Quite like AliveandKicking, I think, He is!!

you are the troll. you saw the problem was finished so you came to stir it up again and spoil the thread. if you were genuine you would use the report and pm. instead you want to fight in a thread and now you are trying to bring another person into the fight. you are a clear troll. why do you call me a troll? i asked a question and there was nothing wrong with my question. it was on topic. gf reaction to my question is not my fault. why do you call me a troll?

 

[G0ldfinger]

Let's just all get back on topic, shall we?

[crushtherents]

Let's just all get back on topic, shall we?

what did i do wrong? they come back one after the other to stir it up everytime the dust settles. they call me a troll when i did nothing to deserve it. this is an attack on me and your doing nothing about it. they are taking turns to have a kick so they dont look bad. how would you feel if they were doing it to you?

 

[warpig]

This seems to be an updated list which you might have seen before. It makes for interesting reading...

 

These 110 Analysts Believe Gold Will Go Parabolic to $3,000 or More!

 

These 6 Analysts Believe Gold Will Reach Parabolic Peak Sometime in 2011

1. Bob Kirtley: $10,000;

2. Patrick Kerr: $5,000 – $10,000;

3. James Dines: $3,000 – $5,000;

4. Taran Marwah: $3,000;

5. Bob Chapman: $3,000;

6. Jim Sinclair: $1,650 – $5,000 ($1650 by January 14, 2011 OR $3,000-$5,000 by June 2011);

 

These 6 Analysts See Gold Price Going Parabolic to +$10,000

1. Mike Maloney: $15,000;

2. Ben Davies: $10,000 – $15,000;

3. Howard Katz: $14,000;

4. Dr. Jeffrey Lewis: $7,000 – $14,000;

5. Jim Rickards: $4,000 – $11,000;

6. Roland Watson: $10,800

 

Continued here:

[aliveandkicking]

These 6 Analysts Believe Gold Will Reach Parabolic Peak Sometime in 2011

1. Bob Kirtley: $10,000;

2. Patrick Kerr: $5,000 – $10,000;

3. James Dines: $3,000 – $5,000;

4. Taran Marwah: $3,000;

5. Bob Chapman: $3,000;

6. Jim Sinclair: $1,650 – $5,000 ($1650 by January 14, 2011 OR $3,000-$5,000 by June 2011);

 

3000 seems very unlikely by end of 2011.

 

Probably by the end of 2011 the various Central banks will be beginning to remove some of the money sloshing around in preparation for higher rates.

[warpig]

It would easier to raise a counter argument, if you suggested what was likely, rather than what is unlikely. I presume you're talking about much lower gold prices based on your second statement...

 

3000 seems very unlikely by end of 2011.

 

Probably by the end of 2011 the various Central banks will be beginning to remove some of the money sloshing around in preparation for higher rates.

[d2thdr]

It would easier to raise a counter argument, if you suggested what was likely, rather than what is unlikely. I presume you're talking about much lower gold prices based on your second statement...

 

I think we are just looking at a price where analytical traders and chartalists feel gold has peaked and now it is time to sell it for fiat. However, my question is a bit different. At what price would physical gold become unlikely to be exchangeable for fiat?

 

3000

4000

5000

10000

25000

1000000000000?

 

 

[aliveandkicking]

It would easier to raise a counter argument, if you suggested what was likely, rather than what is unlikely. I presume you're talking about much lower gold prices based on your second statement...

 

The point is that 3000 is the lowest price of all 6 of those people. And 3000 seems very unlikely. I cant tell you what the price of gold is going to be at the end of 2011. But why is it going to more than double from now?

 

What are you expecting to see happen that is not already in the price?

[G0ldfinger]

Shanghai Gold Premium Hits $23/Oz, China Opens 1 Million Gold-Savings Accounts

http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-s...d+Market+Report

[fitkid]

The point is that 3000 is the lowest price of all 6 of those people. And 3000 seems very unlikely. I cant tell you what the price of gold is going to be at the end of 2011. But why is it going to more than double from now?

 

What are you expecting to see happen that is not already in the price?

I cant tell you what the price of gold is going to be at the end of 2011.

 

Why not? surely in THE TWILIGHT ZONE you have such technology to enable you to fathom out such minor discrepencies.

I mean in this dimension at least we have the like of TELEOANALYSIS to tell everyone that taking statins is such a good idea.

[romans holiday]

The point is that 3000 is the lowest price of all 6 of those people. And 3000 seems very unlikely. I cant tell you what the price of gold is going to be at the end of 2011. But why is it going to more than double from now?

 

What are you expecting to see happen that is not already in the price?

Extrapolating the long term trend should see a baseline of 1600 odd for gold by the end of this year. With the baseline at 1600, a spike to around 1800 is possible. Notice the volatility in gold is reducing.... with it showing a steadier pace of annual appreciation of 20% odd against the dollar.

 

 

[drbubb]

The point is that 3000 is the lowest price of all 6 of those people. And 3000 seems very unlikely. I cant tell you what the price of gold is going to be at the end of 2011. But why is it going to more than double from now?

What are you expecting to see happen that is not already in the price?

Experience has taught me:

When, after a big rally, you see widespread forecasts of a further doubling, it is usually time to be OUT of the market.

 

Haven't you guys learned anything from the Piper's silly $1650 forecast?

These guys are chronic bulls, and they do not own magic crystal balls.

And chances are, they benefit somehow when they can entices crowds into buying Gold.

[Jake]

Experience has taught me:

When, after a big rally, you see widespread forecasts of a further doubling, it is usually time to be OUT of the market.

 

Haven't you guys learned anything from the Piper's silly $1650 forecast?

These guys are chronic bulls, and they do not own magic crystal balls.

And chances are, they benefit somehow when they can entices crowds into buying Gold.

I understand your POV. But I also understand Jim Sinclairs 1650 crystal ball is a lot closer than Prechter's calls these last 10 years. I'm all for a contrarian call but going against that long list may well be going against the contrarians.

If Prechter is right from here on in he will look like a genius but is every commodity including gold going to fall apart? Maybe so. ''We'll see what happens'' as he is prone to say.

I think there is so much insecurity around that paper price might see some falls but physical buying is going to remain strong as people simply go to the ultimate 'safe haven' bypassing the other safe havens. That may prove expensive if the dollar rises and cash, treasuries etc are king for a while. Still it might be reassuring to have taken refuge in dry dock and batten down the hatches as the storm front approaches? Its rather like Chris Martenson house purchase isn't it? He knows he is probably going to lose money but is content to plant up the orchard and insulate his house, solar the roof, feed the chickens etc...and get on with his life as best he can.

[Errol]

Experience has taught me:

When, after a big rally, you see widespread forecasts of a further doubling, it is usually time to be OUT of the market.

 

Haven't you guys learned anything from the Piper's silly $1650 forecast?

These guys are chronic bulls, and they do not own magic crystal balls.

And chances are, they benefit somehow when they can entices crowds into buying Gold.

 

I presume you mean 'out' of electronic trading items? Physical bullion should be kept as a core position/insurance. Measure wealth in ounces -- what is coming will leave Gold the ultimate victor.

 

People following Sinclair's forecast are probably up 400% + btw. I know I am (although I was more motivated by Schiff).

[warpig]

Good post Jake.

 

I understand your POV. But I also understand Jim Sinclairs 1650 crystal ball is a lot closer than Prechter's calls these last 10 years. I'm all for a contrarian call but going against that long list may well be going against the contrarians.

If Prechter is right from here on in he will look like a genius but is every commodity including gold going to fall apart? Maybe so. ''We'll see what happens'' as he is prone to say.

I think there is so much insecurity around that paper price might see some falls but physical buying is going to remain strong as people simply go to the ultimate 'safe haven' bypassing the other safe havens. That may prove expensive if the dollar rises and cash, treasuries etc are king for a while. Still it might be reassuring to have taken refuge in dry dock and batten down the hatches as the storm front approaches? Its rather like Chris Martenson house purchase isn't it? He knows he is probably going to lose money but is content to plant up the orchard and insulate his house, solar the roof, feed the chickens etc...and get on with his life as best he can.

 

[warpig]

In the last 6 weeks I've had 5 or 6 people talk to me about gold... it would seem something's changed. Gold seems to be on everybody's lips, they know what it is and what it does, but they're afraid of making the same mistake they did with property. The longer this economic crisis continues, the more people will be attracted to the qualities of gold, it's inevitable.

 

On a macro level, the world's financial system is on life support. The reality of a contagious thermonuclear financial debt explosion, is certainly not priced in, because people can't picture what the world will look like when this happens.

 

The point is that 3000 is the lowest price of all 6 of those people. And 3000 seems very unlikely. I cant tell you what the price of gold is going to be at the end of 2011. But why is it going to more than double from now?

 

What are you expecting to see happen that is not already in the price?

 

[electroweak]

Bought some more physical today.

Good deal on some 1/4 Oz coins, paid for in cash, of course.

[glass]

gold.co.uk now forsale - they must need the real stuff

[Errol]

Bought some more physical today.

Good deal on some 1/4 Oz coins, paid for in cash, of course.

 

What 1/4 oz coins do you go for? Sovereigns? Maples? Eagles?

[electroweak]

What 1/4 oz coins do you go for? Sovereigns? Maples? Eagles?

I like the 9999 stuff: prefer Maples. Like nuggets. Also like Britannias - older style with standing Britannia only though..

 

 

[warpig]

From: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6Yeid2C7tc

 

From:

[aliveandkicking]

On a macro level, the world's financial system is on life support. The reality of a contagious thermonuclear financial debt explosion, is certainly not priced in, because people can't picture what the world will look like when this happens.

 

Most people must be beginning to realise that dollar doom is not likely to happen by the end of 2011, when at this point in time retail sales there are only 0.2% below the 2007 highs and even the trade deficit and firms like GM are looking better.