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Hi guys,

I am calling for 500 buck gold this time.

These are the technicals:

http://seekingalpha....erm-update-2011

 

I am short, and this is going to be my killing trade. Bears, wish me luck.

 

Regards

 

I was trying to think of a mildly amusing reply but realised that lifting a quote from your blog was better:

 

However we have got the top on the weekly, so market reversed.

Hitting 400 by early 2012 would be an ideal bottom, but I am not calling 400, I am

calling 500. :lol: Because there is a strong support at 500 line.

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Yes but it's going to be you that's killed. Thanks for resurrecting this chart, it's my favorite... 107 USDX you say... :lol:

481054-130487446458049-ker-nulov-gmail-com.png

 

I am short, and this is going to be my killing trade. Bears, wish me luck.

 

 

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Hi guys,

I am calling for 500 buck gold this time.

These are the technicals:

http://seekingalpha....erm-update-2011

 

I am short, and this is going to be my killing trade. Bears, wish me luck.

 

Regards

You've been wildly wrong on gold for the last 4 years so your opinion is ridiculous to say the least. If you have any gold I would buy it off you for $500 an ounce, but you dont have any do you? I wish you luck with your paper.

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I am calling for 500 buck gold this time.

...

I am short, and this is going to be my killing trade.

Yes, I fear so too (financially).

 

Most of us are amazed that you are still trading in the PM markets.

 

Anyway, good to see you back! Bubb wants to know more about your risk management, if you find the time. He thinks that it must be outstanding given that you have re-emerged now. I agree.

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Hi guys,

I am calling for 500 buck gold this time.

These are the technicals:

http://seekingalpha....erm-update-2011

 

I am short, and this is going to be my killing trade. Bears, wish me luck.

 

Regards

 

ker - imo, you should seek the patterns that exist on the chart rather than impose your pattern onto the chart

 

i have found a pattern on the logarithmic gold $ chart; i call it the au log mirror symmetry pattern

 

of course, it may mean nothing and just be a badly drawn coincidence. However, to me it says that this bull is still on until there is a breakout of that pattern.

 

At some point in the future it will breakout, but rather than second guess what it means now, i will sit back and wait until the time when i can follow the action rather than take some guess on the future.

 

one possibility is that, gold will 'do a vertical', or it may just signify that a new volatility is entering the market, or it may be that there is a sell-off

 

who knows, but what's the point of constantly going against the bull when it's telling you otherwise?

 

and needless to say the above is all Tech Analysis - fundamentals are not even considered

 

 

ausymmetry.gif

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Hi guys,

I am calling for 500 buck gold this time.

These are the technicals:

http://seekingalpha....erm-update-2011

 

I am short, and this is going to be my killing trade. Bears, wish me luck.

 

Regards

You obviously haven't been actually placing the trades you have been talking about for years otherwise you would be well broke by now, so I can only presume you are actually placing the opposite and work for someone like JPM.

 

This is a good contra-indicator sign glad to see you back.

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You obviously haven't been actually placing the trades you have been talking about for years otherwise you would be well broke by now, so I can only presume you are actually placing the opposite and work for someone like JPM.

 

This is a good contra-indicator sign glad to see you back.

 

i was just thinking that - if ker acted on anything he has said in the last 5 years how has he got any money left!

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I am short

My Mum phoned me up this morning because she had heard the business reporter on the BBC suggest the gold bubble was over.

 

I asked her if she had heard all these people question the housing bubble or the credit bubble or the internet bubble. She said she hadn't.

 

I told her to start worrying when everyone was on the telly telling you precious metals are the place to be and her broker was telling her to buy.

 

After all since when have any of the people been any good at spotting a bubble.

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I am short

Napoleon Complex? laugh.gif

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Hi guys,

I am calling for 500 buck gold this time.

These are the technicals:

http://seekingalpha....erm-update-2011

 

I am short, and this is going to be my killing trade. Bears, wish me luck.

 

Regards

 

Hi Ker, my proprietary indicator has given a buy signal for XAU today, so that's essentially gold and silver miners, that typically only go up with gold and silver... ; )

Indicator signal chart - XAU buy signal

Safetogetbackintothewater.png

 

PS Do you also do stand-up?

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http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/11_Jim_Sinclair_-_Were_Nowhere_Near_a_Top_in_Gold!.html

When asked if $5,000 gold was unreasonable Sinclair replied, “It’s not unreasonable because there’s nothing that you need to add to the present problem, it’s all done. You really don’t need a QE3, QE1 & QE2 have taken care of everything that would be necessary to put gold at those kind of prices.

I agree 100%.

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I am liking this correction in Gold at this time I always favoured the Martin Armstrong June low as it would set us up for a big rally in to 2012.

 

My take is that the miners will start to find support soon and may even start to lead the next leg up for Gold.

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I am liking this correction in Gold at this time I always favoured the Martin Armstrong June low as it would set us up for a big rally in to 2012.

 

My take is that the miners will start to find support soon and may even start to lead the next leg up for Gold.

I agree, the miners are only just starting to release their massively increased profits in their reports. The hedges won't be as stupid to try and hold back the tide of massively increased earnings so we should see some covering starting to happen as the metals start backup.

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http://www.realclearmarkets.com/off_the_street2/2011/05/gold_standard_qe_iii.html

 

So bad, I had to post it.

 

There are several ways a gold standard might be implemented but the most likely in my opinion would be one where the Fed defines an exchange ratio for gold. In such a system, the Fed would announce a target price for gold and then conduct open market operations to achieve the target.

 

So, let's assume for a moment that the Fed announces tomorrow that henceforth the Fed would conduct monetary policy to maintain the current price of gold. Or they might say that they would act to gradually reduce the price to say, $1000/ounce over a period of time. How would the market react to such an announcement?

 

One effect would surely be that all the speculators long gold would have no reason to keep speculating if the Fed is determined to stabilize or reduce the price. So the speculators would be selling. The same could be said about all the every day citizens who have been hoarding gold in fear of a dollar collapse. Assuming they had confidence in the Fed's determination and ability to maintain a target gold price, there would be no reason to maintain a large cache of the shiny stuff. I think it is also likely that foreign investors would want to convert some of their capital to newly stabilized dollars.

 

How would the Fed offset this surge in demand for dollars? To keep the price of gold stable, the Fed would have to increase the supply of dollars in the market. If they use normal open market operations to accomplish that it would mean purchasing Treasuries with newly printed dollars. Of course they could also buy gold to support the price as sellers enter the market, but the effect would be the same.

 

FT actually linked to this story.....

 

 

Wow

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http://www.realclearmarkets.com/off_the_street2/2011/05/gold_standard_qe_iii.html

 

So bad, I had to post it.

 

 

 

FT actually linked to this story.....

 

 

Wow

The flaw in the argument comes here:

 

Assuming they had confidence in the Fed's determination and ability to maintain a target gold price, there would be no reason to maintain a large cache of the shiny stuff.

 

How can they maintain a price of $1000/oz? They would have to SELL gold to do that. The market already values it at $1500.

If they sell gold (or people demand to convert their $1000 into an ounce of gold) they will rapidly deplete reserves and the gold standard becomes worthless.

To replenish reserves, they could nationalise mining industries I suppose, but would that work? I doubt it.

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IMO it failed right here:

 

There are several ways a gold standard might be implemented but the most likely in my opinion would be one where the Fed

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The Fed could possibly sustain a gold price at around $3,000 - $5,000 if they let the (shadow) banking system and the economy collapse. This would be in a truly [non-RH] hyper-deflationary scenario. Houses would go to almost zero in this case (no credit).

 

If they support the banking system, but still don't give much about the economy i.e. don't print much more, they could possibly sustain a gold price around $30,000 to $50,000. This is the "support MZM" scenario (keep status quo, no QE anymore from here on). Essentially a factor of 1,000 on their current balance sheet valuation (at $42.22/oz).

 

If they keep printing, your guess is as good as mine. :)

 

This person is obviously completely clueless and does not know that you have to own something in order to sustainably sell it in order to keep a lid on the price. In any other manipulation attempt (naked shorting), the price would have to blow at some stage.

 

IMHO, the Fed will not attempt to manage the gold price permanently as they know they can't. Remember, they've tried it before. :rolleyes:

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One of the most respected global technical and macro strategists in the world, Robin Griffiths has said that silver and gold could rise to $450 and $12,000 per ounce respectively due to the debasement of paper currencies.

 

Griffiths was chief technical strategist with HSBC for over 20 years, has 44 years investment experience and now works for Cazenove Capital, one of the oldest investment houses in the world tracing its origins back to the 17th century. It manages money on behalf of blue blooded clients and is widely believed to manage some of the British Royal family’s wealth.

 

When asked by King World News if his $350 target was a realistic price level for silver Griffiths stated, “That is absolutely not unrealistic. If you adjust the old all-time high for inflation...that gives you $450 for silver. Then you add in the fact that they are printing money, you can take it higher than that without any difficulty at all.

 

http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog/silver-surge-450oz-and-gold-12000oz-%E2%80%93-cazenove%E2%80%99s-robin-griffiths

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Sterling gold holding the 50DMA but running out of time in the rising wedge:

 

o9qx78.jpg

 

Pattern recognition edition calls for a top on June 10 or so, with a bottom first week in August:

 

300u1bk.png

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