wren Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 Maybe my view is tainted by the fact NZ and Aus banks do not have any deposit protection scheme ! This is not the UK or US. Wow! None at all? In Finland it's €25 000 per bank which I thought a bit stingy as it's £35 000 in the UK. But if you have multiple accounts you need to be careful as a few seemingly separate banks/building societies are not separate under the guarantee scheme. I'm hoping gold and silver will go sideways all spring and summer. I need more time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 Hmm, my worry is more about missing the rocket upwards when people rush for the safe haven. Haven't we been expecting a potentially huge dip when the **** hits the fan. And for that to be potentially quite short-lived, and followed by a very fast rise. I'd rather be well insured during a firestorm. Maybe my view is tainted by the fact NZ and Aus banks do not have any deposit protection scheme ! This is not the UK or US. I've become accustomed over the last few weeks to seeing gold at over $900/oz and silver over $17/oz -- not only seeing them there, but being prepared (sometimes in principle, sometimes in practice) to buy them at such prices. I don't think I'm going to buy quite yet (unless someone shows me the error of my logic). My reasoning is: If gold only goes up from here, I wouldn't object to waiting until it felt relatively safe that this could be the case, and buying it at, say, $950/oz or so; I'd still consider that to be a relative bargain. However, if it has some way more to drop, then I'd like the chance to make the previous judgement again (obviously this time with a figure lower than $950/oz) on reasonable evidence of gold's return. Repeat until gold makes fairly solid upward moves... Amateur that I am, I'm not really used to judging price movements by charts, but I intend to keep an eye on gold's price with respect to the moving averages. It's pure speculation at this point (pending watching how gold's price affects MAs over the coming days/weeks), but I wonder if it's worth waiting till at least gold passes through the 50-day MA again on its way back up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dopamine Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 I don't think I'm going to buy quite yet (unless someone shows me the error of my logic). My reasoning is: If gold only goes up from here, I wouldn't object to waiting until it felt relatively safe that this could be the case, and buying it at, say, $950/oz or so; I'd still consider that to be a relative bargain. However, if it has some way more to drop, then I'd like the chance to make the previous judgement again (obviously this time with a figure lower than $950/oz) on reasonable evidence of gold's return. my point exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 I still think this correction will take us into the $800s. I'm waiting with my finger on the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wheelybin Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 Chart from Bullion Vault - the correction in CHF terms looks nearly as big as May 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mongoose Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 Hard to call, but this is the biggest correction since May/June 2006. That correction dropped pretty much straight down. Just some figures I'm playing with... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$gold,uu[l,a]dacaynay[df][pd144,1.618!b300!f!b200!f][iut!ue12,26,9!lh14,3] (sorry forum software does not like the link to stockcharts and won't make it all clicky ) May 2006 - June 2007 730.40 dropped to 542.27 = 188.13 = 25.75% over about 1 month. Incidently the 540 level was also the 200 dma level in June 2006. It then rebounded upto 676.41 so bounced up 24.73% in the next month to Juy 2006, before then drifting down and consolidating for a year off the 300 dma level at 641.10 in June 2007. March 2008 Onwards So using those drops we see a drop from the peak 1033.90 level down to 771 for the same 25.75 percentage fall. If we use the 200 dma level which is currently 785. The previous months increase in 200 dma was approximately 35 (Feb 18th to March 18th). Assuming the 200 dma will rise by about 25 from now (1 week into correction and falling prices) we have a target 200 dma figure of 810 for mid-late April from which we could see a profitable bounce. Target levels of either 771 or 810 Obviously things are different from how they were in May 2006 so we may not see as large a fall and gold has some core support levels in the 800s to get past. Conversely, the cartel may see this as the last chance to smack gold out of the public mind and push down to the 300dma level which has proved to be major support. I'll be looking to enter some short term SB positions if gold hits 820 and average down from that level if it goes lower. I'll then get out after $100 bounce. If Gold doesn't go down that far to 820, I'm not in a rush as I still have my core physical and equity positions that will benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wheelybin Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 Oologhai + co. My tactics... (fwiw) It's hard to judge, but if there's one thing I've noticed in the year or so that I've been buying gold is that reasoning doesn't work for me over the short term. So many ups and downs are just noise and completely unpredictable. I've got nervous and taken profits before only to see the price go through the roof, as well as buying strength only to see a fall. I can qualify it with charts, but most of it is gut feelings if I'm honest with myself. Until last week though, I had always been well in profit a week or two later. I have been reading sound arguments on this thread and in many other places over the last 18 months for a continued rise in the price of gold and I have some faith that that will happen longer term. Given that and the fact I was happy buying in at $990, I should be jubilant to be buying at $920 - as long as I remain confident that the general direction of travel is still up. And that's exactly it. That's what we're getting nervous about isn't it? Not that we'll be down for a month or two, but that we've been fundamentally wrong about the general direction of travel - that maybe, just for a minute there, it was getting a bit euphoric. At these points I have to reaffirm and rationalise what I believe: that it makes sense to hold at the moment and tentatively buy in to what may prove a rare opportunity. After all, it could bounce back just as quickly. On the other hand, I'm keeping plenty of cash on hand in case of further falls. One thing I'm certain of is that holding lots of GBP fiat makes me nervous. The big psychological factor is that anything much below $860 would wipe out my profits. Then the reality of chasing losses might well start to affect my behaviour. I've resolved to hang tough and ride it out. It's really interesting to see how fear and greed weave their magic over me. Whatever else happens, it's never dull and I feel like I'm learning lessons about myself. - Wheely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 I did a little bit of digging this morning on the price of silver. I called a couple of coin shops and a bullion dealer and asked them what the price of 100 1oz eagles is. The response all sold out. I then went on ebay and 1oz eagles are all being bid in the low to mid twenties. What does all this mean to me? Well the Comex or Crimex futures is being disconnected from the reality of the markets. Either the crimex is right and liquidity will return to the physical market, or there will be one hellava short squeeze once traders realize the crimex is being manipulated by paper money/silver. Keep hold of your bullion regardless of inflation or deflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 What prices were you getting for 100 coins inc vat? I did a little bit of digging this morning on the price of silver. I called a couple of coin shops and a bullion dealer and asked them what the price of 100 1oz eagles is. The response all sold out. I then went on ebay and 1oz eagles are all being bid in the low to mid twenties. What does all this mean to me? Well the Comex or Crimex futures is being disconnected from the reality of the markets. Either the crimex is right and liquidity will return to the physical market, or there will be one hellava short squeeze once traders realize the crimex is being manipulated by paper money/silver. Keep hold of your bullion regardless of inflation or deflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 At these points I have to reaffirm and rationalise what I believe: that it makes sense to hold at the moment and tentatively buy in to what may prove a rare opportunity. After all, it could bounce back just as quickly. On the other hand, I'm keeping plenty of cash on hand in case of further falls. One thing I'm certain of is that holding lots of GBP fiat makes me nervous. The big psychological factor is that anything much below $860 would wipe out my profits. Then the reality of chasing losses might well start to affect my behaviour. I've resolved to hang tough and ride it out. It's really interesting to see how fear and greed weave their magic over me. Whatever else happens, it's never dull and I feel like I'm learning lessons about myself. The volatility can be very unnerving and those entering only recently would, I guess, suffer more, not having a "profit buffer" behind them. I'm not at all interested in short term speculation. But those who invest for the long term need to establish their belief that the bull is not at its very end firstly, and secondly that it is likely to continue for a couple of years more, at least. The important long term ratios (DOW:gold etc.) convince me that the fundamentals are still good. As we all know dollar etc. prices are not themselves fundamental and the adjustments versus CPI are highly unreliable because those stats are unreliable. This is why I focus on the important ratios comparing real with real, like gold versus houses. I really wonder whether this spring and summer could be something like 2006, with lots of volatility but net sideways action for several months. Any arguments for or against that suggestion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 Some great posts on here over the last few days, real food for thought. I'm not looking to chance another big entry until we get into the $850 to $997 range. I simply don't believe that we'll see anything below $850, although, admittedly, I couldn't see us dropping below $940 either. If I'm at the screen when we hit support just above $900, I will probably have a short term punt with a tight stop, as that would be a good level to get in for a possible bounce up to the $940-$950 level. The stop will be either at or just below $900 and I'm prepared to take a small loss for a chance to get in at the bottom of a potential bounce. I will try the same trick again at $887. Anything below that, and it's big buys (both physical and equities) for my long term core positions, as I believe that dropping towards $850 will dramatically increase the chance of a long consolidation period, in which I'll be aiming to accumulate cash for the next set of action. I'm not even thinking about going short on gold or silver at any point. That's one for the suckers who think they can profit from hanging on to the cartel's coat-tails. They'll get burned again and again as the market whipsaws them out of their (no doubt leveraged) positions. It's moments like this you always wish you had more cash, and I can't think of many times that would be true in today's inflationary world. Just putting my strategy out there, I think we'll see fairly quickly whether it's even close to being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere but I'm shocked . . . Could they actually get away with it ?? http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a233faa2-f789-11...0077b07658.html "Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic are actively engaged in discussions about the feasibility of mass purchases of mortgage-backed securities as a possible solution to the credit crisis. Such a move would involve the use of public funds to shore up the market in a key financial instrument and restore confidence by ending the current vicious circle of forced sales, falling prices and weakening balance sheets." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere but I'm shocked . . . Could they actually get away with it ?? http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a233faa2-f789-11...0077b07658.html "Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic are actively engaged in discussions about the feasibility of mass purchases of mortgage-backed securities as a possible solution to the credit crisis. Such a move would involve the use of public funds to shore up the market in a key financial instrument and restore confidence by ending the current vicious circle of forced sales, falling prices and weakening balance sheets." I'm not sure this isn't just more propaganda / rhetoric. I really don't think the ECB could coordinate agreement from all European countires on this even if the ECB itself wanted to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 this article might be of interest: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2008/0320.html Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere but I'm shocked . . . Could they actually get away with it ?? http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a233faa2-f789-11...0077b07658.html "Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic are actively engaged in discussions about the feasibility of mass purchases of mortgage-backed securities as a possible solution to the credit crisis. Such a move would involve the use of public funds to shore up the market in a key financial instrument and restore confidence by ending the current vicious circle of forced sales, falling prices and weakening balance sheets." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 I'm not sure this isn't just more propaganda / rhetoric. I really don't think the ECB could coordinate agreement from all European countires on this even if the ECB itself wanted to. Although I don't have any link to hand, I believe the ECB has been supporting Spanish banks for a couple of months. Furthermore, I believe the Bank of England is now permitted to support banks without public disclosure (thanks to the Northern Rock episode). The FED is already accepting mortgage-based collateral. It seems to be all on. They will monetitize. Corporate Socialism. Private profit at public risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gatesy Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 Although I don't have any link to hand, I believe the ECB has been supporting Spanish banks for a couple of months. Furthermore, I believe the Bank of England is now permitted to support banks without public disclosure (thanks to the Northern Rock episode). The FED is already accepting mortgage-based collateral. It seems to be all on. They will monetitize. Corporate Socialism. Private profit at public risk. Yes, I don't disagree with this, but what I mean is a wholsesale agreement to buy out all debts in one fell swoop seems unrealistic, especially as they'd have to identify who had what liabilities first, a procedural nightmare; and this move would obviously not be without consequence to the organsation admitting that their assets are trashed leading to a buyout of said organisation for about 6% of their stock market valuation the previous week (a la Bear Stearns). Due to the above I cannot see that this could be put in place overnight as a short cut. Wishful thinking maybe as I think it would take months, probably no quicker than the market process currently underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 If this denial had been released on any other day, it might hold water but how could the Fed and the BoE get this out within hours of the story surfacing on Easter Saturday especially as they swore blind that leave over the holiday period had NOT been cancelled ? http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews...246240120080322 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 LONDON/WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve and Bank of England denied a report on Saturday that they were in talks over possibly using public funds to make mass purchases of mortgage-backed securities to ease the global credit crisis. Does that make it official then? (Oddly incorrect use of official names, if I'm not mistaken.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted March 22, 2008 Report Share Posted March 22, 2008 However, the Bank of England said it was considering a number of other, unspecified options to address the turmoil in financial markets, which has continued despite the injection by central banks of billions of dollars of liquidity and cuts in interest rates. The European Central Bank had no comment. Which is barely gratfiying in an unspecified sort of way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pluto Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Gary North calling for sell off in Gold once again. http://www.garynorth.com/public/3263.cfm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIGA Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Has anyone been out and kicked a football, turned off their screen, thought about something else other than gold/silver?? i went in heavy silver just under $17, got to admit been buying little chunks all the way down, since my latest purchases been kicking footballs and relaxing completely as Jim Puplava has suggested time and time again, there is nothing new under the sun. Hope it drops further, I has some (little amount) spare cash, no point timing this market short term unles you are trading it and you got to be very very very smart or very stupid to play that game right???? anyway.. going out to all PM long term holders, stay strong, sit tight, hold tight, accumulate, accumulate, accumulate. We are Comrades In Golden Arms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Gary North calling for sell off in Gold once again. http://www.garynorth.com/public/3263.cfm Before reading a Garry North article, I think you might want to read this thread first. Quite illuminating ! Gary North: commodities boom and Au/Ag/Pt bubbles are over http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3592 Also well worth a read for the points made about inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Has anyone been out and kicked a football, turned off their screen, thought about something else other than gold/silver?? Yes, I went for a fantastic swim here today, and didn't think about gold or silver once: Not bad Easter Sunday weather anyway.. going out to all PM long term holders, stay strong, sit tight, hold tight, accumulate, accumulate, accumulate. We are Comrades In Golden Arms. Ay ay Captain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Has anyone on here even considered selling gold/silver in the past week ? Has anyone had someone point out "how much gold has gone down". I suggest a reply: "That's not a lot, just look at Bear Sterns, $170 to $2" :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Americans going shopping with their Dollars Or perhaps they are trying to keep flooding out with their Dollars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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