azazel Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Yes, I went for a fantastic swim here today, and didn't think about gold or silver once: Not bad Easter Sunday weather Ay ay Captain Nice. Cold, grey and raining here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Ah yes, I remember it well. That's one thing about NZ. We get a LOT of sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silent reader Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Has anyone been out and kicked a football, turned off their screen, thought about something else other than gold/silver?? I'm currently moving from my rented home (of the last 5 yrs) to a new rented home in the countryside of East Sussex, so this is all coming about at a really nice time for me. I'm getting lots of time sifting though my stuff and sorting out items for the charity shop. I'm also now gently adding to my PM's when ever i got some spare cash from my wages. of course i keep an eye on the gold/silver charts, it's only in the last 2 yrs I’ve really considered investing in something other than leaving money in the bank. I'm currently only in PM's until the housing situation considerably changes in the UK. But i'll admit, last week is the first time i've seen PM's take a real spanking. It's left me much to ponder on while i'm moving i tell you. But i'm still buying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enrieb Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Has anyone on here even considered selling gold/silver in the past week ? Has anyone had someone point out "how much gold has gone down". I suggest a reply: "That's not a lot, just look at Bear Sterns, $170 to $2" :lol: That's how I view the situation too, when I look at what happened to northern rock and bear sterns it shows just how bad things could get and most of the losses are still hidden at the moment.House prices have to come down but the bankers and politicians don't want them to fall because if they do then all these mortgage backed securities lose even more value and more banks will go bankrupt. How far they will go to keep these asset prices up is the unknown factor. The thought of 'what if I am wrong' did go through my head at some point during the week, so I reviewed all the fundamental reasons for gold ownership over holding other assets and cash. What happened last week will weaken the dollar, pound and euro further over the next few months the best place to be in my view is gold and pms. That is unless your an experienced market trader who knows when pick stocks and trade in and out at a profit. Another good sign is the all economic commentators who did not see or warn about the credit bubble, subprime mortgages, CDOs, recession, the dollar losing value, Fed bailouts and the commodities bull market. Every time the stock market goes up they say the problems are all over. These people have been consistently wrong about everything and when they turn round and call the top in gold its got to be taken as a reverse economic indicator. When I look at what could happen over the next few years owning gold seems like a wise choice. House prices will have to collapse or governments will have to inflate to keep them up, if prices do collapse the banks and stockmarkets will suffer if they choose to inflate then the currency will lose value. I don't know how its all going to play out but I feel much safer being able to hold wealth in gold. Glad to see the weather is good for you Steve, here in the UK its snowing, how odd is that? snow at easter. If global warming is real (I understand that many people are still not convinced) then melting polar ice could make the gulf stream break down this would lower the temperature in northern Europe. Global warming real or not could be another reason to hold gold over the long term, it only takes a small amount of people to put their assets in to gold and with enough media attention it could be another catalyst. The problem of peak oil also sits outside the door, again I know that not everyone is convinced, but this week Cheney is in talks with the Saudis about increasing their oil production, it they cannot produce more it could suggest that they may be near to peak, either way this could push oil prices up even further, that is unless you own gold as the price of oil has hardly gone up in relation to gold over the past 60 years. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7308509.stm So its good to self reflect and question the reasons why you are invested in gold instead of property, dollars or financial shares. I was probably more worried last Sunday when the gold price was going up toward $1030 because I still want to add more gold at a lower price before we start to see the real high prices. A correction down to $800 or less would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 This is a excellent read regarding the deflation or inflation arguement http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=249079 Both camps make some very good points and with this weeks fall in gold price its making me think twice before buying this dip. Bear Stearns dies, gold drops = Deflation / flight to t-bills ???? Bear Stearns dies, gold drops = Market manipulation / shake out weak hands??? Bear Stearns dies, gold drops = only covering margin calls / 1st quater reporting season ???? Not including house and pension, I am about 45% gold, 5% silver, 50% cash ( Sterling only, have been thinking about buying Euros but with the rates down to 1.22 where as last september could get 1.44 I think I have missed the boat for now) For the moment I think I will add to my cash and watch how things pan out. Anyone have any thoughts ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Gary North calling for sell off in Gold once again. http://www.garynorth.com/public/3263.cfm Not sure who this guy is, just seems like another one of those 'miracle' pundits who are always right after the event and have never made a mistake (hmmmm). One thing I do agree with though, I feel far more comfortable with my short positions at the moment than anything else. As I've said before, I don't even think we've begun to see the depths to which the Fed will plunge in order to prop it all up. But at the moment the market is tiliting towards the recession scenario and the sure fire way to take advantage of this position, no matter how brief it may be, is on the short side. I can see it being only a matter of weeks before the inflation monster rears its ugly head again in the mind of the market. In reality, inflationary news is as plain as the nose on your face, but the way things have been spun appear to have deluded the majority. In my opinion, this delusion cannot last for long, but in the meatime it can still cause very real damage to commodities. Either way, the volatility on this is going to be immense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 One thing I do agree with though, I feel far more comfortable with my short positions at the moment than anything else. Just out of interest... what are you shorting? I've made several attempts to short Paragon, Rightmove, et al over the past few months and always found there's not enough liquidity in the market to do it (ie *everyone's* shorting at the same time). Are short specific stocks or whole indices? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 If this denial had been released on any other day, it might hold water but how could the Fed and the BoE get this out within hours of the story surfacing on Easter Saturday especially as they swore blind that leave over the holiday period had NOT been cancelled ? http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews...246240120080322 Most organisations have "people" on-call over holiday periods to comment to the press. My missus has to do it now and again for her (public sector) organisation. Given the current climate I don't find it hugely surprising that the BoE press office is working this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Thyme Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Most organisations have "people" on-call over holiday periods to comment to the press. My missus has to do it now and again for her (public sector) organisation. Given the current climate I don't find it hugely surprising that the BoE press office is working this weekend. Fair enough but I won't be surprised if something major is announced this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 A good reason to sell your gold? Fed's rescue halted a derivatives Chernobyl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...23/ccfed123.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Just out of interest... what are you shorting? I've made several attempts to short Paragon, Rightmove, et al over the past few months and always found there's not enough liquidity in the market to do it (ie *everyone's* shorting at the same time). Are short specific stocks or whole indices? I've been short retailers since Christmas and will continue to be so. I've also been looking for an entry point to restart shorting UK builders, but the market never quite seems to give me the opportunity I want. I'm still smarting over the builders as I hopped out way too early of my last set of shorts last year and missed out on making a packet. I'm toying with the idea of reshorting the banks, but I fear the risk is just too great with the Fed's deranged hand dishing out piles of money every couple of weeks. If I was to short one, it would probably be JPM, as it seems to be the only bank out there which hasn't taken a share price beating (strange, given its supposedly massive exposure to the subprime/CDO mess). It's only a few dollars off it's all time highs, ridiculous really. That's why I'm sticking with retailers and builders. I agree with Pluto that all of this bailout money will come nowhere near Joe Sixpack and consequently the retailers and builders will not benefit in a big way from a Fed megaboost. Makes the risk/reward seem much more attractive for me. I'm not short indices, but individual companies. My biggest selection criteria being the health of the company's balance sheet. Those that have borrowed the most and have no cash reserves are in significant danger of going under as this all plays out. And despite what some of the more deluded posters on other forums say, it doesn't matter how big or established these companies are, they can still fail. Their dividends and P/E ratios are meaningless when profits turn to losses. As for liquidity problems entering positions, I've not encountered any. But I tend to stay away from the 'flavour of the month' shorts, generally by the time you've heard about them, the action has already happened and the risk of shorting has shot through the roof. The best thing about shorting at the moment is that the majority of the news is on your side. The bear is out of the cage and the media can't seem to get enough of him. They may be sensationalist, but the dodgy fundamental picture for so many sectors and companies will give them plenty to write about over the coming years. I'm always cautious, but the trend is on my side. Shorting a bear market is just like going long in a bull market, the tide will wash over mistakes you make in timing individual waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 IMO that's not going to help you. I think you'd end up getting the timing wrong a lot of the time. You'll sell to early, wait and watch it go up more, and start to panic you're missing the rocket. You'll then buy in above what you sold for. Then it will immediately dip, and you'll end up selling in panic on the way down. It would work if you could guarantee it correcting below what you sold for every time. But it won't. If Jim Sinclair says buy and hold, and he is VASTLY more experienced than me, that's what I'm doing. IMO, if you believe in the long-term trend, then buying and holding, even if you go through a year of bad times, is actually the safest method. It's those who are more accepting of risk who trade in and out in an attempt to make more. Just my view. On reflection I think you are probably right Steve to highlight the advice of Jim Sinclair - I've never invested in something this volatile before and I think the long game will suit my position better. It's just painful to watch - many of you on here did say it would be like this - but it is only until you have skin in the game that you 'really' feel it!! SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 It's hard to argue with Jim Willie. Check his gold predictions from 6 years ago!! http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie111202.html Great read narco. Just reading this article it is saying that both inflation and deflation are good for gold? Is that correct? SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Anyone have any thoughts ??? Have you tried marmite on sausages? Smear on before grilling, delicious. I think both these two are the reasons for golds drop: Bear Stearns dies, gold drops = Market manipulation / shake out weak hands??? Bear Stearns dies, gold drops = only covering margin calls / 1st quater reporting season ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
safebetter Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Thought this might be of interest in relation to 'gold' awareness in the public domain: Obviously placed before the current correction , but still interesting. Anyone else seen anything similar? SafeBetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Have you tried marmite on sausages? Smear on before grilling, delicious. I havnt yet, but will certainly look into. Maybe for my bank holiday monday breakfast I think both these two are the reasons for golds drop: Bear Stearns dies, gold drops = Market manipulation / shake out weak hands??? Bear Stearns dies, gold drops = only covering margin calls / 1st quater reporting season ???? Im not so sure ( but I know this is the whole point of the wall of worry ) Inflation = Kills everybody rich or poor, We all loose apart from goldbugs. There is not enough gold around for the mega rich to even think about entering the market. Deflation = Kills the poor, but the cash rich can buy up everything for pennies on the pound The banks stop lennding to consumers - deflation Banks are destroyed ( aka Bear Stearns ) - deflation T-bills up, flight to cash - deflation I really dont know, im just spinning stuff round in my head today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notanewmember Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Thought this might be of interest in relation to 'gold' awareness in the public domain: Obviously placed before the current correction , but still interesting. Anyone else seen anything similar? SafeBetter YES - LAST WEEK I M IN THE PORTSMOUTH AREA - WE VE HAD A BIG LEAFLET DROP. WHEN I CHECKED OUT THE ADDRESS IT WAS A RESIDENTIAL ADDRESS IN COPNOR/EASTNEY 3 MILES AWAY! WHY WOULD THEY WANT YOUR GOLD IF IT WAS TO GO HIGHER???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tahoma Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 I've been in Gold for a couple of years now, following forums all the time. If I have one observation, it is that people into Gold are bipolar - when it is going up, they see no upper limit. If it takes a hit, they see no bottom. All I can say is look at a five year chart, and you will see that the smackdown from $1000+ is completely irrelevant and a healthy part of the Gold bull market. I am going to have some more powder to set off shortly, and I am happy to sit back and wait for someone to make my next Gold purchase cheaper. It wasn't always this easy, I've sat glued to charts set to ticker refresh for a bit longer than is healthy. As Puplava would say, ask yourself 'what has changed?' before deciding that Gold is on a downslide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Great read narco. Just reading this article it is saying that both inflation and deflation are good for gold? Is that correct? SafeBetter For sure. Gold isn't a 'promise to pay' but the actual payment. In the event of mass bank failures, an initial deflaionary situation would turn massively inflationary where deposits are guaranteed (to 35k) by the printing press. Imagine them try that on a gold standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pmaupoil Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 All Investments Sort of - Tried to with Hiscox, but they would not/could not insure for anything reasonable at the end. M&S Home Insurance is unlimited though so have gone with them. Have not declared PMs as high value items to them as individually none of my coins or coin sets are £4k or more and they are not a collection (as per M&S terms) Just ensure you have proved ownership. Also it could be prudent to spread the stash using safety deposit boxes which come with their own insurance. ... I don't know the full details about CGT, but I do know that sovereigns and Britannias are exempt from CGT because they are classed as currency coins: legal tender. I think it depends on how much you sell and profit from in one year but others can explain it better and these links give more info. I personally will get round the issue by using friends and family to sell gold for me when it gets to a high enough level so that I do not go over my CGT limit. Also I am not sure that I trust the government will uphold CGT exemption on sovereigns and Britannias should gold become even more valuable, so I only own a small amount of Britannias and sovereigns atm. http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/manuals/cg4manual/CG78308.htm http://reviews.ebay.com/CGT-Capital-Gains-...000000001593758 ... Thanks a lot for your answers guys! Really appreciated your input and links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 I've been in Gold for a couple of years now, following forums all the time. If I have one observation, it is that people into Gold are bipolar - when it is going up, they see no upper limit. If it takes a hit, they see no bottom. All I can say is look at a five year chart, and you will see that the smackdown from $1000+ is completely irrelevant and a healthy part of the Gold bull market. I am going to have some more powder to set off shortly, and I am happy to sit back and wait for someone to make my next Gold purchase cheaper. It wasn't always this easy, I've sat glued to charts set to ticker refresh for a bit longer than is healthy. As Puplava would say, ask yourself 'what has changed?' before deciding that Gold is on a downslide. Very good points. I will not be selling so my only concern is wether to add or accumilate cash. What has changed ??? The fed will not allow any banks to fail - Could be inflationary ?? The banks stop lending - deflationary Is the next step - banks call in loans - Deflationary - saves all the cash rich at the expense of J6P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 A good reason to sell your gold? Fed's rescue halted a derivatives Chernobyl http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...23/ccfed123.xml Thanks narco, thats the most reassuring article Ive read, and I wont be selling my PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tahoma Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 Very good points. I will not be selling so my only concern is wether to add or accumilate cash. The inflation/deflation argument seems to be becoming preminent. My opinion is, inflation as all those foreign held $ denominated assets come home. Then deflation as they can't get anyone to take on more debt any more, either due to exhausted/scared consumers not willing to borrow or banks more interested in repairing their balance sheets than lending to fund consumption. The main question is the timescale of when inflation turns to deflation. Listen to Schiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 The inflation/deflation argument seems to be becoming preminent. My opinion is, inflation as all those foreign held $ denominated assets come home. Then deflation as they can't get anyone to take on more debt any more, either due to exhausted/scared consumers not willing to borrow or banks more interested in repairing their balance sheets than lending to fund consumption. The main question is the timescale of when inflation turns to deflation. Listen to Schiff. That nails it on the head. Its all about time scale. I think a 50 - 50 split between cash and PM works for me, until I get some signs of direction ( although i will probably change my mind in hour ) Thats why with PM = BUY and HOLD I only have to worry about the adding part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tahoma Posted March 23, 2008 Report Share Posted March 23, 2008 That nails it on the head. Its all about time scale. Remember, money does well in deflation. And whatever the C*nTTs of this world tell you, Gold IS money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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