GOLD

[azazel]

£1123 an ounce £36,130 a kilo....

[G0ldfinger]

OK, I'll stop this now. Watch this -- it usually works:

 

See you up theheeeree!!

[andrew]

OK, I'll stop this now. Watch this -- it usually works:

 

See you up theheeeree!!

 

GF............... Why did you do that ?

 

You may have started another long consolidation.

 

Ho well, it'll give me a chance to buy some more............

[LauraB]

OK, I'll stop this now. Watch this -- it usually works:

 

It doesn't work if you use the same rocket each time GF ...

 

 

 

... Oh, it does

 

No Primark for me tomorrow then :(

[romans holiday]

[warpig]

Margin hikes from CME in the following:

 

E-MINI GOLD FUTURES (8Q)

10 TROY OZ GOLD FUTURES (MGC)

COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES (GC)

COMEX 100 GOLD TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (GCT)

COMEX MINY GOLD FUTURES (QO)

 

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv11-279.pdf

[warpig]

London Trader - Many Gold Shorts Wiped Out, Lost Everything!

 

With gold hovering near Jim Sinclair’s resistance point at $1,764, a trader out of London told King World News today, “I fully expect to have $2 moves in silver and $50 moves in gold as absolutely normal at this point. If you don’t expect that, you are not going to understand what is going on, but don’t forget that we are in August and you normally have juniors manning the desks.

 

This is highly unusual and we do have very thin liquidity in the metals. So that’s one of the reasons you are seeing things move so quickly in both metals. You are talking about a one minute bar in gold being a ten dollar range.”

 

“The physical buyers still have not been filled and they are getting nervous. The buyers in size have not been filled and they are underpinning this gold market. If gold pulls back the buyers will get some fills, if not they are going to have to start chasing this market. In fact, don’t be surprised to see a $100 move in gold if they lose patience.”

 

When asked about shorts who have been badly mauled he responded, “Well what’s happened with the shorts that were in there is they were absolutely crushed on that overnight rise on Monday. There were some margin calls on some serious players. There were some anguished faces on Monday.

 

These guys in London woke up with their asses handed to them and I don’t think some of these guys will ever be short again, if they are still in business. So some of these perennial shorts that have always joined in the party got screwed, I mean literally lost everything. For the ones that didn’t lose everything, they certainly lost an awful lot.

 

Gold just gapped up and didn’t come back and these guys were heavily short. I believe there is still enough momentum to push gold into the $1,800’s. We are moving into season now and things are happening in China that will impact the markets in due course. Because we have been seeing that point of capitulation, we have been witnessing some dramatic moves as the shorts have been mauled, and as I mentioned, in some cases to the point of ending careers.”

 

This trader previously called the $50 overnight move in gold prior to it happening and also said the shorts would get crushed. Shortly thereafter both events took place.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jinbal]

Does anyone have an up to date chart of the Commodities Index:Gold - i.e. Bob Hoye's real price of Gold. I remember him talking about a high real proce of Gold being a bullish driver for miners (as they're costs are lower in relation to gold).

 

Thanks

[Pixel8r]

Does anyone have an up to date chart of the Commodities Index:Gold - i.e. Bob Hoye's real price of Gold. I remember him talking about a high real proce of Gold being a bullish driver for miners (as they're costs are lower in relation to gold).

 

Thanks

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB:$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79568295049

 

 

[jinbal]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB:$GOLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79568295049

 

 

thanks

 

Does this not show that the price of commodities has broken out (down) against gold. The last this happened was at the major low for gold stocks in 2009, the move from there was pretty strong.

 

Thoughts?

[drbubb]

IF YOU HAVE BEEN SUSPENDED, please see:

 

The Message to Returning Members:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15209

[Jake]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Banister/Aug112011.html

 

''Wave 1- 300 to 1030

 

Wave 2- 1030 to 681 (October 2008 lows)

 

Wave 3- 618- 1805 currently, 34 Fibonacci month cycle. *Likely high is 1862-1900*

 

Wave 4- Due up next… a multi month consolidation

 

It is my opinion that at the top of a Major wave 3 in Gold, that everyone should be univerally bullish, that gold radio and TV commercials would be all over the place, and that everyone on CNBC would be talking about and recommending Gold.

 

Sound familiar?

---------------------------------------------

 

Thoughts?

[Jake]

Nice to compare and contrast to Alf Fields numbers from 2003 originally, here updated:

 

update my original "back of the envelope" template to much higher levels, as follows:

 

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);

Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);

Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);

Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);

Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

 

Once again, you can pick your number for the gain in FIVE and multiply it by $2,500. The numbers become astronomical and can really only be possible in a runaway inflationary environment, something which many thinking people are suggesting has become a possibility as a result of the actions taken during the current crisis.

 

 

I recommended reading Alf Fields a long time ago. Just google and enjoy his writings.

[warpig]

I can't see it. QE3 in some capacity must be imminent. Currencies are failing at a progressive rate, there's civil disobedience in the streets and the markets are tanking. Gold was running ahead of itself IMO, so I think the margin hikes were timely. We have the PIIGS teetering and really anything can happen at any time. I think we'll see $1,950+ by Christmas.

 

http://www.kitco.com.../Aug112011.html

 

''Wave 1- 300 to 1030

 

Wave 2- 1030 to 681 (October 2008 lows)

 

Wave 3- 618- 1805 currently, 34 Fibonacci month cycle. *Likely high is 1862-1900*

 

Wave 4- Due up next… a multi month consolidation

 

It is my opinion that at the top of a Major wave 3 in Gold, that everyone should be univerally bullish, that gold radio and TV commercials would be all over the place, and that everyone on CNBC would be talking about and recommending Gold.

 

Sound familiar?

---------------------------------------------

 

Thoughts?

[drbubb]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Banister/Aug112011.html

Wave 1- 300 to 1030

Wave 2- 1030 to 681 (October 2008 lows)

Wave 3- 618- 1805 currently, 34 Fibonacci month cycle. *Likely high is 1862-1900*

Wave 4- Due up next… a multi month consolidation

 

It is my opinion that at the top of a Major wave 3 in Gold, that everyone should be univerally bullish, that gold radio and TV commercials would be all over the place, and that everyone on CNBC would be talking about and recommending Gold.

His headline is: "Gold's Cyclical 34 Month Run is about to End"

Chart:

 

Makes sense to me, I have been talking about an imminent intermediate Gold peak on the "Gold-like-Silver" thread.

My best current guess is we can see that peak in place before next Friday's option expiry - and there's even a chance that we just saw it at $1805.

 

I think all this talk of "QE3 forever" and starting soon - is just not right. Too many people who have jumped on every bandwagon, and especially the bandwagons that have run off the road into the ditch, have embraced that thinking too. (Just because Marc Faber and Jim Puplava have spoken about it, does not mean it will happen.) Or it may happen AFTER a very nasty correction in Gold and other commodities. That is, we could see some like we saw in late 2008, before we get something like QE3.

 

The debate in Washington is changing, and changing fast - Can you not see that?

[Carlton]

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Banister/Aug112011.html

 

''Wave 1- 300 to 1030

 

Wave 2- 1030 to 681 (October 2008 lows)

 

Wave 3- 618- 1805 currently, 34 Fibonacci month cycle. *Likely high is 1862-1900*

 

Wave 4- Due up next… a multi month consolidation

 

It is my opinion that at the top of a Major wave 3 in Gold, that everyone should be univerally bullish, that gold radio and TV commercials would be all over the place, and that everyone on CNBC would be talking about and recommending Gold.

 

Sound familiar?

---------------------------------------------

 

Thoughts?

Looking at the chart and at Alf Field, I'm inclined to think we're still in 3 of 3, not 5 of 3. Banister is showing an almost non-existent 4 of 3.

 

Though, all the talk of gold has me nervous, and these past few days feel like too much too soon.

 

I'll add, however, that Ben Davies on KWN recently stated that though sentiment for gold is high, participation is narrow; people talk about gold, they don't own it.

 

 

The debate in Washington is changing, and changing fast - Can you not see that?

Respectfully, I think you're seeing what you want to see: austerity, austerity, austerity. We're Americans. We're used to getting what we want: a big house in the suburbs, an SUV, low taxes, and good government services. There is no majority in both chambers of Congress to either raise taxes or cut spending substantially. The spending will continue and the low taxes will continue, at least through the end of 2012. Approval ratings for the House of Representatives are at historic lows; while Pres. Obama's approval numbers aren't great but (with reference to history) they may allow him to be reelected. A Democratic sweep in 2012 is quite possible.

[Jake]

Looking at the chart and at Alf Field, I'm inclined to think we're still in 3 of 3, not 5 of 3. Banister is showing an almost non-existent 4 of 3.

 

Though, all the talk of gold has me nervous, and these past few days feel like too much too soon.

 

I'll add, however, that Ben Davies on KWN recently stated that though sentiment for gold is high, participation is narrow; people talk about gold, they don't own it.

 

I note Bannister doesn't mention where he thinks it'll fall to either. I imagine they are both right within different time frames. Sort of fib. wheel within a wheel.

Yes, I feel we are within 3 of 3 too. Alf has been right a LONG time and I like his thoughts and essays. It is hard to fathom how he made them when he did...serious respect.

Take your point about people not really owning gold yet. At least the big buyers. And such a small market... When they do the price could really move.

[Pixel8r]

thanks

 

Does this not show that the price of commodities has broken out (down) against gold. The last this happened was at the major low for gold stocks in 2009, the move from there was pretty strong.

 

Thoughts?

My thoughts on this graph are that gold and silver miners are unbelievably cheap at the moment. Their main mining expense (Oil) have fallen substantially against gold, while the shares have not been rising at the rate of gold's price rise. When there next quarters reports come out they are going to be showing amazing profits.

 

I think you are right and we are going to see a bull run for the mining stocks start very soon.

 

 

 

[Perishabull]

thanks

 

Does this not show that the price of commodities has broken out (down) against gold. The last this happened was at the major low for gold stocks in 2009, the move from there was pretty strong.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

Take a look at the GDX:GLD ratio over at www.stockcharts.com. (I can't post the chart right now). The ratio is very close to the level it was back in March 2009....

 

0.325 looks like the level to watch.

[warpig]

The debate in Washington is futile IMO. There's no austerity coming, not before a collapse, the military industrial complex is too powerful and needs feeding.

 

http://www.defensepr...on-lot-of-f-35/

 

Despite this, the whole Keynesian system is built around continual growth and the only hope they have is implementing QE^X. People seem to have forgotten about the quadrillions of notional value of CDS. In a severe crisis, notional becomes actual... Only on paper is it a zero sum game. Can't you see that?

 

Makes sense to me, I have been talking about an imminent intermediate Gold peak on the "Gold-like-Silver" thread.

My best current guess is we can see that peak in place before next Friday's option expiry - and there's even a chance that we just saw it at $1805.

 

I think all this talk of "QE3 forever" and starting soon - is just not right. Too many people who have jumped on every bandwagon, and especially the bandwagons that have run off the road into the ditch, have embraced that thinking too. (Just because Marc Faber and Jim Puplava have spoken about it, does not mean it will happen.) Or it may happen AFTER a very nasty correction in Gold and other commodities. That is, we could see some like we saw in late 2008, before we get something like QE3.

 

The debate in Washington is changing, and changing fast - Can you not see that?

[Perishabull]

Take a look at the GDX:GLD ratio over at www.stockcharts.com. (I can't post the chart right now). The ratio is very close to the level it was back in March 2009....

 

0.325 looks like the level to watch.

 

 

Gold topped on 20th Feb 2009, 2 weeks before the stock market bottomed.

 

 

I just checked my proprietary DBDT indicator and it gave a buy signal on GDX by the close of trade on 10th August. That's quite interesting for me since historically my indicator has been reasonably accurate with GDX.

 

GDX buy signal 10th August;

 

 

GDX 1 year;

 

 

 

Also a buy signal on XAU (Gold/Silver index)

 

 

If gold remains at elevated levels and crude remains suppressed then I would certainly think there is a strong chance of a very large upward breakout for the gold miners.

[med]

Robert Prechter still not interested in gold

[warpig]

Did you expect any different?

 

 

 

Robert Prechter still not interested in gold

[med]

Did you expect any different?

 

No but shows the stubbornness of the man who can't admit he got it wrong.

[drbubb]

No but shows the stubbornness of the man who can't admit he got it wrong.

I heard him admit on Bloomberg this week that he had been wrong about Gold for a long time.

He said: "I might hold onto Gold now, but I wouldn't be buying any more now at this price."