GOLD

[jinbal]

Thanks PD - very useful

 

 

Gold topped on 20th Feb 2009, 2 weeks before the stock market bottomed.

 

 

I just checked my proprietary DBDT indicator and it gave a buy signal on GDX by the close of trade on 10th August. That's quite interesting for me since historically my indicator has been reasonably accurate with GDX.

 

GDX buy signal 10th August;

 

 

GDX 1 year;

 

 

 

 

Also a buy signal on XAU (Gold/Silver index)

 

 

If gold remains at elevated levels and crude remains suppressed then I would certainly think there is a strong chance of a very large upward breakout for the gold miners.

[warpig]

Would you honestly take his advice? What use is it?

 

 

 

I heard him admit on Bloomberg this week that he had been wrong about Gold for a long time.

He said: "I might hold onto Gold now, but I wouldn't be buying any more now at this price."

[Perishabull]

Who's been buying gold above $1800? Anyone here?

[gavinspoon]

Who's been buying gold above $1800? Anyone here?

Bought a little bit more, just incase it was the final collapse of the world finance system. But it probably isn't and I'm fairly sure that there'll be better buying ops in the future.

 

Edit to add: I also bought more junior miners. Jesus, they look cheap right now!

[drbubb]

Would you honestly take his advice? What use is it?

On trading Gold, or Stocks?

 

He has many interesting observations on both markets, and you can use them in your own trading.

But that doesn't mean you should following his trading signals slavishly.

 

I think you will find that many good investors respect his opinions and market commentary.

For instance, I saw a long period of difficult trading after 2000. Few others got that right.

[drbubb]

... I also bought more junior miners. Jesus, they look cheap right now!

I don't disagree, but I am interested in what measure you are using to make that comment?

[jinbal]

Who's been buying gold above $1800? Anyone here?

 

I'm not buying bullion as it's too far away from its EMA's (50/150)

 

I bought a bit more GDXJ today

 

I've been using the real price of gold (Gold:CRB) as an indicator toward profitability - the ratio has spiked above the level it was at in early 2009. Of course it could just be a panic spike which is why I'm nibbling bit by bit. Also GDXJ is just off it support level at the lower end of the range so it looked like a decent entry point, I'll increase size if price dips.

[gavinspoon]

I don't disagree, but I am interested in what measure you are using to make that comment?

Nothing too scientific I'm afraid just the sheer disparity between the the rise in the price of physical, and the fall in the shares. Combined with the falls in oil, it looks like a slam dunk. I've got some oil shares as a sort of crude hedge on my gold miners position, and I've just watched them tank. It's got to be good for the miners.

 

Edit to add; As a warning, all of my comments tonight should be taken with a pinch of salt. It's gone 1am, and i've been drinking since 5! I know that your savvy enough to make your own calls, but I'd hate for someone reading this to make any investment calls based on anything I said!

[warpig]

Interesting comment from the dailymail.

 

Why your gold jewellery has soared in value as economy plunges

 

There are suggestions that we will increasingly see buying gold as part of our retirement planning, along with pensions, property and savings accounts.

[electroweak]

Steve Forbes makes an 'staggering prediction'... (from thursday's C4 news, iirc)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0tf30QFhOo

 

BTW Dr.B: the site is running VERY VERY slowly and my firefox browser seems now to constantly be 'updating'- the circle thingy is always rotating..

[med]

I heard him admit on Bloomberg this week that he had been wrong about Gold for a long time.

He said: "I might hold onto Gold now, but I wouldn't be buying any more now at this price."

 

In that case I cant criticise him too much, regardless I am always interested to hear his calls as he has made some good ones in the past

[sine270]

Modest uptick the last few hours of trading yesterday. I'm guessing even at this level people feel they will sleep better over the weekend if they are "in" rather than "out". Consolidation anywhere around this level would be quite a result IMO.

[TinBrick]

Today (August 15th) marks the 40th anniversary of the closing of the gold window by President Nixon - ending the convertibility of dollars to gold.

 

The fiat dollar is now officially middle-aged . . .

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRzr1QU6K1o

[G0ldfinger]

TEMPORARY, please. Thank you!

 

Today (August 15th) marks the 40th anniversary of the closing of the gold window by President Nixon - ending the convertibility of dollars to gold.

[G0ldfinger]

I am very intrigued by gold miners/explorers that are still plumbing (nominal!) 2008 depths, such as Axmin Inc. and Endeavour Mining, to mention two that John Embry had looked at 2-3 years ago. Do we have a thread that actually discusses why some of these companies are still dirt cheap while others have recovered? I am usually less into the stocks, so I am possibly not quite aware of corresponding discussions on here.

 

Related to this, I will put some money into larger producers sometime soon. Does anyone see a good reason why I should not buy Goldcorp or Yamana? Note that I am talking of larger companies here, so I know there is also less upside potential when compared with juniors.

[leftysmate]

Related to this, I will put some money into larger producers sometime soon. Does anyone see a good reason why I should not buy Goldcorp or Yamana? Note that I am talking of larger companies here, so I know there is also less upside potential when compared with juniors.

 

Not sure if it has been posted elsewhere, but I came across this from Frank Barbera on Chris Martenson's site a couple of weeks back.

 

gold-surging-buy-mining-stocks-not-so-fast-says-frank-barbera

[Carlton]

I am very intrigued by gold miners/explorers that are still plumbing (nominal!) 2008 depths, such as Axmin Inc. and Endeavour Mining, to mention two that John Embry had looked at 2-3 years ago. Do we have a thread that actually discusses why some of these companies are still dirt cheap while others have recovered? I am usually less into the stocks, so I am possibly not quite aware of corresponding discussions on here.

 

Related to this, I will put some money into larger producers sometime soon. Does anyone see a good reason why I should not buy Goldcorp or Yamana? Note that I am talking of larger companies here, so I know there is also less upside potential when compared with juniors.

 

Many of the poorly performing stocks have had significant dilution. With some of these stocks the market cap goes up while the shares don't (as much).

[sine270]

Not sure if it has been posted elsewhere, but I came across this from Frank Barbera on Chris Martenson's site a couple of weeks back.

 

gold-surging-buy-mining-stocks-not-so-fast-says-frank-barbera

 

Very interesting thanks.

[marceau]

I am very intrigued by gold miners/explorers that are still plumbing (nominal!) 2008 depths, such as Axmin Inc. and Endeavour Mining, to mention two that John Embry had looked at 2-3 years ago. Do we have a thread that actually discusses why some of these companies are still dirt cheap while others have recovered? I am usually less into the stocks, so I am possibly not quite aware of corresponding discussions on here.

 

Related to this, I will put some money into larger producers sometime soon. Does anyone see a good reason why I should not buy Goldcorp or Yamana? Note that I am talking of larger companies here, so I know there is also less upside potential when compared with juniors.

 

 

The bottom line is that they are so badly run that they aren't making money. They can have untold riches in the ground, but if their management isn't up to scratch then the only thing they suceed in doing is burning truckloads of cash, hence the endless dilution. It's the mark of incredible incompetence that most of these firms haven't made a single dime during a decade long bull market. Why would anyone invest in them when 10 years of evidence points to them being money pits?

 

Miners are the riskiest of risk assets, so the mainstream market won't touch them regardless of the gold price. In most cases the leverage has only worked on the downside and you'd have been much better off just owning bullion. It's sad, but true.

 

I'm glad I put most of my money into the royalty companies, at last they've shown a consistent profit.

[G0ldfinger]

Thanks everyone for the input. Marceau you're right with the management issues and dilution. It is like a minefield out there. That's why I appreciate analysts like John Doody, Brent Cook, but also our very own Frizzers to see through the fog. Anyway, that's most likely also why I will stick with mid Tier producers and won't go too risky. Although, I just bought Gold Resource Corp. (GORO), but given that Doody and Frizzers recommend them, I thought I could risk it. After all, they are obviously producing.

[marceau]

Thanks everyone for the input. Marceau you're right with the management issues and dilution. It is like a minefield out there. That's why I appreciate analysts like John Doody, Brent Cook, but also our very own Frizzers to see through the fog. Anyway, that's most likely also why I will stick with mid Tier producers and won't go too risky. Although, I just bought Gold Resource Corp. (GORO), but given that Doody and Frizzers recommend them, I thought I could risk it. After all, they are obviously producing.

 

 

 

 

The bulk of my portfolio is in Royal Gold and Silver Wheaton, with another small royalty co, Sandstorm as a (so far successful) speculative play. They seem to offer constant appreciation in line with the metals. Other than that I have minor exposure to over 20 juniors and explorers. Unfortunately, outside the royalty streamers the risk is phenomenal regardless of the gold price or market cap (the mid caps and large caps are the worst offenders in my book, as they have absolutely no excuse for their consistently shambolic performances).

 

Good management is one thing, but it can't mitigate the level of fear, both real and imagined, attached to the sector. Look at what happened to Bear Creek, they had a great deposit and a superb management and they were fast tracking towards profitable production. Then national politics kicked in and they dropped 50% overnight. Taking that level of risk is at a time of global crisis isn't that smart an idea IMO.

 

I've picked my miners well since I started investing here, and to be fair some of my explorers have been multibaggers. There are good firms out there, but they make up a laughably small percentage of the sector and, crucially, even the winners haven't leveraged the upside of the metals. Considering the risks I've taken my overall portfolio should be several times higher given the rise in underlying PM prices. The fact that it isn't, even with good entry timing, risk management and stock selection, warrants careful consideration for anyone wanting to invest in this area.

[frizzers]

Thanks everyone for the input. Marceau you're right with the management issues and dilution. It is like a minefield out there. That's why I appreciate analysts like John Doody, Brent Cook, but also our very own Frizzers to see through the fog. Anyway, that's most likely also why I will stick with mid Tier producers and won't go too risky. Although, I just bought Gold Resource Corp. (GORO), but given that Doody and Frizzers recommend them, I thought I could risk it. After all, they are obviously producing.

I recommended them at $2 not $26!

 

It's a good company anyway , though a lot of their profit comes from silver actually, though you won't mind that.

[G0ldfinger]

I recommended them at $2 not $26!

You don't have to rub it in. I have admitted before that I am a very latecomer to the gold shares, and I still kick myself for not having prepared my brokerage accounts before 2008. In any case, back then I felt more the need to accumulate bullion. Also, the inflation tiger is out of the sack for good now, which is why I believe there won't be a 2nd 2008, so I rather get in now at still fairy low valuations. John Doody murmured something about triple digits regarding GORO, and this was with gold at $1,600, not $3,000, $5,000 or $10,000.

 

It's a good company anyway , though a lot of their profit comes from silver actually, though you won't mind that.

Yes, also keep in mind that I don't want to trade and hence prefer less speculative more advanced stocks.

[G0ldfinger]

Marceau, I understand where you're coming from, and I think similar. In short, "show me the dividend!" If I am a fantastic producer with ever higher gold prices, I should be able to pay a fantastic dividend, and maybe keep some back for production growth. I hold Silver Wheaton, and might add more in the future. In the gold area, I don't hold royalties yet but as I have written before, I am aiming at producers (with a dividend to expect). I might get some Royal Gold too.

 

EDIT: Regarding catching up with bullion, I think the good companies will, and I think it won't be too long of a wait anymore. That's why I am getting active now (better late than never...). There might be some downside risks in correlation to the general markets, but I see this now as the time to average in.

 

The bulk of my portfolio is in Royal Gold and Silver Wheaton, with another small royalty co, Sandstorm as a (so far successful) speculative play. They seem to offer constant appreciation in line with the metals. Other than that I have minor exposure to over 20 juniors and explorers. Unfortunately, outside the royalty streamers the risk is phenomenal regardless of the gold price or market cap (the mid caps and large caps are the worst offenders in my book, as they have absolutely no excuse for their consistently shambolic performances).

 

Good management is one thing, but it can't mitigate the level of fear, both real and imagined, attached to the sector. Look at what happened to Bear Creek, they had a great deposit and a superb management and they were fast tracking towards profitable production. Then national politics kicked in and they dropped 50% overnight. Taking that level of risk is at a time of global crisis isn't that smart an idea IMO.

 

I've picked my miners well since I started investing here, and to be fair some of my explorers have been multibaggers. There are good firms out there, but they make up a laughably small percentage of the sector and, crucially, even the winners haven't leveraged the upside of the metals. Considering the risks I've taken my overall portfolio should be several times higher given the rise in underlying PM prices. The fact that it isn't, even with good entry timing, risk management and stock selection, warrants careful consideration for anyone wanting to invest in this area.

[electroweak]

things that make you go hmmm.......

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-16/venezuela-may-move-reserves-from-u-s-to-allied-countries-says-lawmaker.html

Venezuela May Move Cash, Gold From U.S.

By Daniel Cancel and Corina Rodriguez Pons - Aug 16, 2011 10:05 PM GMT+0100

 

Venezuela may transfer billions of dollars in cash and gold reserves held in U.S. and European banks to financial institutions in “allied” countries, opposition lawmaker Julio Montoya said today.