Jump to content

Recommended Posts

I developed Sarbanes Oxley data models for one of the banks at Canary Wharf some years ago. They all seemed very indoctrinated in to the financial system, I can't imagine convincing any of them in the benefits of gold... Good luck with that one!

 

I still plan to ruin a few more dinner parties! :)

 

It pays the bills. Switched from consulting firm and joined a big IBank. Ultimate hedge - salary and livelihood go great guns if they economy takes off again (or is QEd to death), banking jobs likely to be protected to the bitter end if things continue to turn down, and I have my physical if it goes totally pete tong.

 

I also use my position to explain very clearly to everyone who will listen what I think is happening. And to some who aren't listening but are trapped with me. My wife thinks I ruin dinner parties.

 

Edit: sinner parties are probably more fun but I meant dinner parties...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I developed Sarbanes Oxley data models for one of the banks at Canary Wharf some years ago. They all seemed very indoctrinated in to the financial system, I can't imagine convincing any of them in the benefits of gold... Good luck with that one!

 

I still plan to ruin a few more dinner parties! :)

 

You'd be surprised. Most I work with are fairly open to new ideas. It's a fairly dynamic environment and people are always receptive to new ways of working. This extends into at least listening to contrary-systemic views. Acting on it is a different matter, but that's common challenge to all fiat-tastic civilians...

 

All we can do is keep chipping away...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's good and that's all you can hope for really. I worked with a lot of data monkeys and they were very set in their ways!

 

You'd be surprised. Most I work with are fairly open to new ideas. It's a fairly dynamic environment and people are always receptive to new ways of working. This extends into at least listening to contrary-systemic views. Acting on it is a different matter, but that's common challenge to all fiat-tastic civilians...

 

All we can do is keep chipping away...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is quite worrying:

 

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=133930&sn=Detail

''A sobering thought too for physical gold holders is that any government legislation aimed at protecting the central banks and their gold holdings from a growing move to take delivery of physical could also be extended to individuals' gold holdings. Could confiscation of gold be a step nearer again?''

 

if other countries also decide to have their gold repatriated. Nixon pt.2 with a twist. 'sorry, we don't have your gold but can pay with our dollar treasuries-which we have aplenty' dastardly snigger...

 

Is it true the UK has 99 tonnes of Venezuela's gold? I wonder which other countries gold we have in 'storage'?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is quite worrying:

 

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=133930&sn=Detail

''A sobering thought too for physical gold holders is that any government legislation aimed at protecting the central banks and their gold holdings from a growing move to take delivery of physical could also be extended to individuals' gold holdings. Could confiscation of gold be a step nearer again?''

 

if other countries also decide to have their gold repatriated. Nixon pt.2 with a twist. 'sorry, we don't have your gold but can pay with our dollar treasuries-which we have aplenty' dastardly snigger...

 

Is it true the UK has 99 tonnes of Venezuela's gold? I wonder which other countries gold we have in 'storage'?

Possibilities like this form one of the best reasons to own mining stocks. I don't expect gold confiscation, but if it happened at least one would have one's miners. (Hopefully the miners are operating in safe jurisdictions.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A race between gold and platinum. Platinum prices probably supported by the rise of gold.

Any bets who is going to cross 2000$ first ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Size of Gold 'Bubble' Now an 'Absurdity': Analyst

 

Having risen by a third since the beginning of 2011 and nearly fivefold since 2004, one analyst believes the precious metal is now in bubble territory and an "absurdity".

 

"Gold is not money and has no investment yield and in fact incurs carrying/storage costs. With the 10 year US treasury rate at 2 percent and storage cost of 1-1.5 percent this implies an annual opportunity cost of 3-3.5 percent,” said John Wadle, the head of regional banks research at Mirae Asset in Hong Kong in a research note sent to CNBC on Tuesday.

 

With global gold reserves now worth over $9 trillion and the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Index worth nearly a third of that level combined, Wadle believes gold is now a “bubble compared to US blue chip stocks”.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44237225

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Party over? (for a while)

$1875.90.

 

This morning's London fix was $1,886.50, $9 higher than yesterday's p.m. fix - I don't think the fat lady has sung yet . . .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DA - Your chart makes it look as if it's due a pullback, do you think that's likely?

 

Hi warpig - in the mid term, yes

 

However, in the longer term (next few years) I think the chart portends a dramatic shift in price movement. A symmetry exists between 2001 - 2007 & 2007 - Now, in terms of the variance of price movement. As you can see this variance is now narrowing and hence gold has to eventually break this pattern. It will be interesting when it does!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi warpig - in the mid term, yes

 

However, in the longer term (next few years) I think the chart portends a dramatic shift in price movement. A symmetry exists between 2001 - 2007 & 2007 - Now, in terms of the variance of price movement. As you can see this variance is now narrowing and hence gold has to eventually break this pattern. It will be interesting when it does!

 

to clarify:

 

the narrowing of variance is % price movement over time

 

'a dramatic shift in price movement' from what we have seen since 2001, could be:

 

1) a flat price (such as a gold standard),

2) an upwards break through the log resistance (probably accompanied by a dramatic collapse of the $),

3) or a dramatic decline in the price of gold (such as following a multi-year peak)

 

take your pick!, the point is, whatever's coming, it's coming soon enough

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Few people on this site post what they do ahead of time. I want to change that so we can properly assess views.

 

I cracked. Sold a chunk (about 20%) of my physical at $1876 this am.

 

Enough to feel ok if it corrects.

Not enough to feel I lost out if it soars.

 

I normally time trades totally wrong so fingers crossed for everyone else :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Few people on this site post what they do ahead of time. I want to change that so we can properly assess views.

 

I cracked. Sold a chunk (about 20%) of my physical at $1876 this am.

 

Enough to feel ok if it corrects.

Not enough to feel I lost out if it soars.

 

I normally time trades totally wrong so fingers crossed for everyone else :)

 

I'm waiting for 'the correction' to play out and sitting tight for now. I feel like I have enough physical so I'm waiting for the opportunity to buy a gold equity fund at a discount to current prices. My only question is Juniors or Majors? I'm undecided.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Size of Gold 'Bubble' Now an 'Absurdity': Analyst

 

Having risen by a third since the beginning of 2011 and nearly fivefold since 2004, one analyst believes the precious metal is now in bubble territory and an "absurdity".

 

"Gold is not money and has no investment yield and in fact incurs carrying/storage costs. With the 10 year US treasury rate at 2 percent and storage cost of 1-1.5 percent this implies an annual opportunity cost of 3-3.5 percent,” said John Wadle, the head of regional banks research at Mirae Asset in Hong Kong in a research note sent to CNBC on Tuesday.

 

With global gold reserves now worth over $9 trillion and the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Index worth nearly a third of that level combined, Wadle believes gold is now a “bubble compared to US blue chip stocks”.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44237225

 

He says global gold reserves, but what he's talking about is all gold ever mined not official reserves.

 

165,000 tonnes x $60.8 mln = $10.0 trillion

 

However, the US official reserves are 8133 x $60.8 mln = $494 bln

America's foreign held debt as of June 2011 was $4499 bln, so gold is currently providing about 10% cover.

$4,499,000 mln / 260 mln ozt. = $17,303 (Jim Sinclair's equilibrium price)

 

100% cover is not necessary. One-third cover would be $5762. I think that remains a realistic target in light of the (official or unofficial) remonitization of gold. However, Waddle's problem is that he doesn't view gold as money. If gold isn't money then maybe he's right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He says global gold reserves, but what he's talking about is all gold ever mined not official reserves.

 

165,000 tonnes x $60.8 mln = $10.0 trillion

 

However, the US official reserves are 8133 x $60.8 mln = $494 bln

America's foreign held debt as of June 2011 was $4499 bln, so gold is currently providing about 10% cover.

$4,499,000 mln / 260 mln ozt. = $17,303 (Jim Sinclair's equilibrium price)

 

100% cover is not necessary. One-third cover would be $5762. I think that remains a realistic target in light of the (official or unofficial) remonitization of gold. However, Waddle's problem is that he doesn't view gold as money. If gold isn't money then maybe he's right.

 

If we overshot beyond 100% in 1980, I can't help but think 40% is a conservative target for M1 coverage. To paraphrase Jim Rickards, I think we could get away with 40% with a structured, orderly transition. But if we go the chaotic route without massive international co-operation and a new Bretton Woods, then I think we're going way north of 100% and into bubble territory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

He's a top-calling tosser who said $1,200 wasn't going to happen. He doesn't seem to understand the difference between the value-destruction and fraud undertaken at Pets.com et al and the re-emergence of the senior currency during the greatest monetary crisis in history.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold-to-Oil Ratio is going parabolic again

 

Gold-to-Oil.png.jpg

Has the GOLD Begun its CORRECTION ?

 

The size of the Drop, and the Big volume today would suggest so...

 

(Gold was: $1829.60 -68.50, vs. Peak of $1914 yesterday)

GLD: $177.61 -$6.98 : GLD-chart

Open: 182.245 / High: 183.82 / Low: 177.50

Volume: 53,856,087

Percent Change: -3.78%

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×