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Thanks DA.

 

1) Can't see that happening yet.

 

2) We've seen the start of that, albeit a pullback today.

 

3) That isn't going to happen IMO.

 

The second week of September is normally explosive, so let's see what happens.

 

to clarify:

 

the narrowing of variance is % price movement over time

 

'a dramatic shift in price movement' from what we have seen since 2001, could be:

 

1) a flat price (such as a gold standard),

2) an upwards break through the log resistance (probably accompanied by a dramatic collapse of the $),

3) or a dramatic decline in the price of gold (such as following a multi-year peak)

 

take your pick!, the point is, whatever's coming, it's coming soon enough

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Has the GOLD Begun its CORRECTION ?

 

The size of the Drop, and the Big volume today would suggest so...

 

(Gold was: $1829.60 -68.50, vs. Peak of $1914 yesterday)

GLD: $177.61 -$6.98 : GLD-chart

Open: 182.245 / High: 183.82 / Low: 177.50

Volume: 53,856,087

Percent Change: -3.78%

Do you have a downside target? Hamilton was suggesting $1465, the 200dma.

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Shanghai Hikes Gold Margins For Second Time In A Month

 

Wondering why gold dropped by almost $100 today? Wonder no more: today the Shanghai Gold Exchange lifted gold margins for forward contracts the second time this month to 12% beginning on Friday, in a move that is starting to resemble the CME's vendetta with silver back from May. Should we expect 3 more SGE margin hikes in the next 2 weeks? Or will the CME rightfully accept the baton and do everything in its power to dent the parabolic rise in the alternative reserve currency? We are cautiously looking at what the CME will do today and will advise readers. In the meantime, here is what else happened in Shanghai: "China’s main precious metals exchange will also widen daily trading limits for those gold contracts to 9 percent, up from 7 percent, the SGE said on its website on Tuesday. The contracts to be affected include Au(T+D), Au(T+N1) and Au(T+N2). This is the second time the exchange has raised collateral requirements on gold forward contracts this year — both times in August — as international gold prices hit a series of record highs over the past few weeks, boosted by a flight to safety on worries over a stalling U.S. recovery and crippling sovereign debt in the euro zone. Shanghai Gold T+D contract lost half a percent to 387.8 yuan per gram, or $1,884.47 an ounce, down from an intraday high of 391.9 yuan when the market opened."

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Yup... :) Option Expiry on Thursday, so I think it was inevitable...

 

 

 

Not that bldy game again :(

 

Though if China is still trying to swap its $ for gold it's in their interestes to keep the price down for a while longer.

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Robin Griffiths - Important Price Targets to Look For in Gold

 

With the gold market experiencing profit taking, today King World News interviewed one of the top strategists in the world, 40 year veteran Robin Griffiths of Cazenove. Cazenove is one of the oldest financial firms on the planet and is widely believed to be the appointed stockbroker to Her Majesty The Queen. When asked about the action in gold Griffiths replied, “The prime trend is obviously incredibly strongly upwards and that’s going to persist for a very long time to come, however in the very short run it’s overbought. It’s deviated quite a long way above its rising trend line and also in the short run people are not usually good at sitting on big profits. So you’re bound to see at some stage some profit-taking.”

 

“I think what might trigger it (profit taking) is I’m expecting equity markets generally in the West to fall some more between now and late October. In that period people do the wrong thing, instead of cutting a loss on the equity market, the bear market, they tend to take a profit on the only thing they’ve got a profit on. So in the shakeout in equity markets still to come you might well see some profit-taking on gold.

 

It could bring the bullion price back to about $1,700. If it does that, buy that dip because the final highs are going to be hundreds of percent higher than we are currently trading. I’m in the camp thinking it (gold) will go to somewhere between $5,000 and $10,000 an ounce at a minimum. There are scenarios that take it higher than that, but it’s got many times up from here.”

 

When asked about the US dollar Griffiths responded, “The dollar is trying to make a base and if world markets enter a panic phase, which is entirely likely in October of this year, you would expect a dollar rally. However, in the meantime if Mr. Bernanke comes up with QE3, QE4 and QE5 or even thinks about them (publicly), the dollar will continue to be weaker.

 

In that scenario, the euro with all of its problems stays slightly stronger than the dollar. But in practice, in the global context, both of these currencies are suspect and really one needs to protect against their downside risks.”

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I've always liked Thompson's no nonsense writing style.

 

8. You need to look in the mirror and ask yourself why you’re here, as a card-carrying gold community soldier. In the parabola zone, there are going to be the biggest hits on gold yet, and they are impossible to predict. If I blow up some egos, I apologize, but you need to ask yourself if you want to predict what cannot be predicted, or if you want to get richer.

 

9. I believe silver has a head and shoulders base pattern on it that is 30 years in size, and a break-out is imminent. That’s why I’m buying silver every 10 cents down. Not here or there. Every 10 cents down. I’m not looking for “strategic entry points”; I’m mauling the market with buys.

 

10. Click HERE NOW to view the greatest base pattern in the history of markets!

http://www.gracelandupdates.com/images/stories/SON11/2011aug23si1.png

 

11. How high can a 30 year head and shoulders base pattern propel the price of silver? I don’t know, but this price pattern is arguably the largest base pattern in the history of markets, and the question is, are you onside?

 

12. The tactical approach to operating in the parabolic zone is to tone down, substantially, your analysis of where price is going, and tone up your response to what actually happens. In terms of size, you need to sell like a bird on strength, and buy like an elephant on weakness.

 

13. Europe is burning, the dollar is burning, and governments are burning. Elmer Fudd Public Investor won’t have any stock market investments by the time the final bell rings on this, the big show. He’s going to make the people in the 1930’s breadlines look like they were in the party zone! The bottom line is that the big picture is going out of control and ushering in the gold parabola zone.

 

14. Martin Armstrong talks of hedge funds betting on the demise of European “virtual currencies”. He argues that national government bonds are being shorted by the fundsters as though they are national currencies of those nations. He worries that unless national debts are consolidated into a single Eurobond issue, dictators could arise in nations like Greece. These nations can’t devalue their currencies, and the market is devaluing their bonds like they are currencies going off the board!

 

15. I’ll add that the euro horror show playing out before your eyes now, gives you a glimpse into the supreme gulag being planned for you by the banksters, with their one world government/one world currency scheme. They know the horrors it will bring to you, and plan to use those horrors to enrich themselves, all the way to the quadrillionaire zone. Yes, maybe it is a good idea to get your hand off that gold top calling button, now.

 

16. Maybe it’s also time to give the tick chart technical analysis of the gold market a bit of a rest, and enjoy the ride! Don’t do to yourself in silver and gold stocks, what many have done to themselves in gold bullion already, with their failed top calls. While others talk about how low silver and gold stocks might go if the Dow crashes, I’m sucking up silver every 10 cents down, without a single missed buy. Have you missed any buys? Well, please miss some more, because that’s just more silver for me. Thanks!

 

17. The price hits on gold and its blood relatives, in the parabola zone, are going to be ultra-sharp, ultra-short, and ultra-unpredictable. Note that word, “unpredictable” and keep it mind before pressing your gold top call button. Most of you have no idea how fast the gold punisher can leave you in dollar dust, in the parabola zone.

 

18. I expect gold to rise by an average of $100-$200 per day, silver by $3-$5 per day, and GDX by $5 per day, as the OTC derivatives–loaded US T-bond market implodes, in the greatest financial fireball in the history of markets.

 

19. The stratospheric price point implications the base pattern in silver are a direct indication of the size of the interest rate OTC derivatives horror. The bond market is not a safe haven. It’s a time bomb, and the banksters are making their way towards it now, with fuses and lighters. Are you sure you want to play gold top caller here?

 

20. Are you sure that an OTC derivatives interest rate fireball that causes the total destruction of the American government bond market is really a reason to top call gold today? Maybe you can time your way through the coming implosion of the bond market. I say all the timers will look like microscopic glow worms, by the time the banksters finish with them.

 

21. This is it! We’re on the edge of the gold parabola and, horrifically, most investors seem to be trying to top call themselves out of gold, and onto the breadline, alongside Elmer Fudd Public Investor! My suggestion, instead, is to stay strong. Sell like a bird. Don’t plop into silver or gold stocks. Buy consistently like a machine, on all weakness, with risk capital you can reasonably place. Most investors have no clue how bullish for gold the implosion of the bond market is, and the time is near. I think an event in Europe lights the whole interest rate OTC derivatives garbage dump on fire, but it could be any trigger.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1314117196.php

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Merkel rejects ally's call to use gold as bailout loan collateral.

DEREK SCALLY in Berlin

 

GERMAN CHANCELLOR Angela Merkel last night gave short shrift to a political ally’s call for the use of gold as collateral for all future euro zone bailout loans.

 

Labour minister Ursula von der Leyen’s suggestion yesterday caused ructions in Berlin and prompted an immediate denial that it represented government policy.

 

The solo run appeared a calculated effort by the minister to boost her domestic profile ahead of an emergency Bundestag sitting of the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) last night.

 

Dr Merkel, without mentioning her minister by name, said making new ideas via the media was “not the way to get things done” in the euro zone crisis . . .

 

("Irish Times", 24/08/11 - more here.)

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Do you have a downside target? Hamilton was suggesting $1465, the 200dma.

 

In sterling the 50DMA is about £1000 and the 200DMA is £916 or so. We're long overdue a touch of the 200 but if we're in the parabolic phase I don't see that we have to. If we did I think I'd become a big buyer of bullion again.

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In sterling the 50DMA is about £1000 and the 200DMA is £916 or so. We're long overdue a touch of the 200 but if we're in the parabolic phase I don't see that we have to. If we did I think I'd become a big buyer of bullion again.

 

My thoughts exactly.

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There's 145 tons of gold in Libya. When NATO takes over they may just dump a load into the markets.

 

Theres some info here about Libya attempting to start a gold backed dinar training oil for gold, dunno how plausible that is or if it was part the reason for NATOs backing.

 

 

http://www.goldbuzzer.com/is-gold-the-real-reason-for-nato-s-action-in-libya/47

 

 

Libyan gold valued at $6.5bn

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12833866

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When do you see the new paradigm emerging?

You mean a reversion to the old paradigm, where money was expected to have intrinsic value, and an abandonment of the this "new paradigm" that we've been living in for forty years.

 

I think Sinclair, Rickards and Forbes have some good ideas, foreseeing a linkage between gold and the reserve currency in the next 3-5 years.

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I'm waiting for 'the correction' to play out and sitting tight for now. I feel like I have enough physical so I'm waiting for the opportunity to buy a gold equity fund at a discount to current prices. My only question is Juniors or Majors? I'm undecided.

From the calling the Top in Gold thread

It would be interesting to hear from some of GEI's more vocal Gold bugs.

 

+ Did you anticipate this sharp drop? (coming out of a parabolic move)

 

+ Many switched from Silver to Gold, in Silver's parabolic move up,

Did any of you switch into: Cash and Calls on Gold stocks, as I suggested?

What other switched did you make?

 

+ What is your strategy now?

 

Volatilities in Gold are still "sky high", and it is not too late to sell some calls

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Do you have a downside target? Hamilton was suggesting $1465, the 200dma.

Yeah- Two targets, as posted on the other thread.

 

But actually, nothing guarantees that prices will not slip below that.

This is an old pattern that we saw in 2008, where Gold peaked several weeks after copper.

Maybe we will see a correction as big as 2008... or even larger

 

Without wanting to sound a braggard, I called this top well, missing only by a few days

 

From the Gold-like-Silver? thread...

 

What is going on here is people are fleeing stocks and the Euro, and the do not want to put their money into the US dollar. Where they are buying dollars, I reckon it is to repay dollar debts.

 

But in fact the number of NEW LONGS in Gold is not that great. If this is an important top in formation over the next few days, then we will observe short covering and FALLING open interest.

 

GLD-aug10.gif.jpg

 

On Wednesday : GLD-chart :

New high on a bit less volume - but still heavy

I also wrote about: "Reaching for the sky before clawing the air."

 

It's all down to staying aware that a "parabolic move up" sews the seeds of a big drop.

We should have all learned that by now, and PD had started a thread to help people get ready for the Turn.

 

What strategies would have worked?

 

In the Silver drop, the thing to wait for is a low on high volume, followed by a bounce and then a lower low on light volume. Until you see that, there is no reason to thing about buying. And if you sell a call now against your long position, I reckon you can use the money later to buy a better call at a lower price later (on the low volume retest.)

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JBTFD :D

 

Also reported at ZH --> And There's Your Perfectly Leaked Explanation: CME Hikes Gold Margins, Again, This Time By 27%

 

Two weeks after the CME hiked gold margins by 22%, and two days after the Shanghai Gold Exchange sent them higher by 26%, here comes the CME, as we expected, with another 26% gold margin hike (previously: "Should we expect 3 more SGE margin hikes in the next 2 weeks? Or will the CME rightfully accept the baton and do everything in its power to dent the parabolic rise in the alternative reserve currency? We are cautiously looking at what the CME will do today and will advise readers."). And now we know that this particular margin hike was leaked well in advance, and explains the entire $100 plunge in gold today. And as a reminder, the August 1 CME margin hike worked... for about 30 minutes.

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I have to say, I was a bit disappointed with myself, I had the e-mail a good 20 minutes before I noticed what it was. Standards are slipping!

 

 

 

pipped at the post, Warpig!

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JBTFD :D

Two weeks after the CME hiked gold margins by 22%, and two days after the Shanghai Gold Exchange sent them higher by 26%, here comes the CME, as we expected, with another 26% gold margin hike

Also reported at ZH --> And There's Your Perfectly Leaked Explanation: CME Hikes Gold Margins, Again, This Time By 27%

They are doing their jobs!

 

When prices "go parabolic", the risks get higher and they SHOULD raise margins.

As the writer said "as we expected".

 

The real problem for the gold market was the one-way speculative move into gold

 

Prec-GLDwk.gif.jpg

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