GOLD

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

another article on the inflation/deflation debate

 

if gold and silver act as cash in deflation then I guess it matters not which one wins in the end.

 

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2008/0324.html

[Steve Netwriter]

Dear Friends,

 

I am watching a gold expert (God protect us from experts). His name is Adrian of Marketclub.com.

 

I wonder if Mr. Adrian H. would accept a SIGNIFICANT and PUBLIC wager that he is so wrong on every point he made on gold and PGMs that he will look like a world class schmoo by 1/1/2009 and a certifiable nut by 1/1/2011. Lets see if this expert is willing to put his money where his mouth is.

 

If anyone out there knows this guy tell him to contact me about the wager.

from: http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1...amp;T_ARID=5964

 

 

March 24, 2008

Watch Adam Hewison, President of INO.com

today at 1:10 PM on BLOOMBERG TV.

http://club.ino.com/trading/

 

March 22, 2008

Did the bubble burst?

 

It seems like if you don't like the price one day in the stock market, just wait a day and the market comes back. This will not continue forever. Sooner or later the downward trend in the stock market will reverse and go higher. But for now, the trend according to our market indicators is pointed lower.

 

Vote in this weeks poll: Do you think that stocks have bottomed out?

 

In the world of commodities, a bubble was burst last week when we witnessed a dramatic drop in gold.

 

After trading as high of $1,030, gold hit an air pocket as all the hedge funds bolted for the exit door at the same time. This mass exodus pushed gold dramatically lower and close to the $900 level in just a few days.

 

Has the commodities bubble finally burst?

 

Yes, we believe the bubble has burst. We expect commodity prices will continue to be volatile and more on the defensive in the weeks ahead.

 

Look at how we approach and analyze the gold market in this short video <- This is well worth watching. It's so easy, I don't know why everyone isn't doing it :D

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold_321/?week321

 

 

So, in case you missed it, Jim says:

 

I wonder if Mr. Adrian H. would accept a SIGNIFICANT and PUBLIC wager that he is so wrong on every point he made on gold and PGMs

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Petition To Impeach George W. Bush

http://financialpetition.org/petition-impeach.shtml

 

"On or about March 16th, 2008, George W. Bush, both personally and through his Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, caused to be provided to JP Morgan/Chase a bribe(1) ultimately flowing from the United States Treasury in an amount not to exceed $30 billion dollars US, via The Federal Reserve, in order to induce JP Morgan/Chase to assume the liabilities and assets of Bear Stearns and Company at a price not determined in the free market or via public bidding, in violation of the limitations expressly set forth in The Federal Reserve Act of 1913, 12 USC Ch 6."

 

from:

 

The Insanity of Bear Stearns / JPM Continues

 

GET OFF YOUR ASS AND IMPEACH THE ENABLERS OF THIS THEFT OR I DON'T WANT TO HEAR YOU COMPLAIN ABOUT IT LATER - HALF OF YOUR SO-CALLED "STIMULUS" CHECK HAS ALREADY BEEN STOLEN TO PAY FOR BEAR STEARNS, AND THAT AND MORE WILL BE UP SHORTLY AS WELLS WILL BE JUST THE NEXT IN A LONG LINE WITH THEIR FINGERS IN YOUR WALLET, AND THEN YOU WILL LOSE YOUR HOUSE TO FORECLOSURE AND YOUR JOB IN THE RECESSION!

 

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

 

 

[1waving]

Article from Goldworld.com :----

 

 

J.P. Morgan's Dirty Little Secret

By Greg McCoach | Monday, March 24th, 2008

 

 

Events last week have prompted me to send out this communication regarding the sudden collapse of the precious metals market. Let's take a look at what caused the collapse and why junior mining companies are the one glimmer of hope amid the chaos.

 

Bear Stearns, J.P. Morgan, and the Precious Metals Market

 

The demise of Bear Stearns, which was reported to the public last Sunday evening and Monday, has in turn caused their assets to be sold off in masse this week.

 

On their book of liquid assets was a rather large, long gold position. It is being sold off in order to raise cash to offset their massive losses. The spot prices have been hammered because of this activity, but it will be short-term in nature. If you're looking to buy physical precious metals to diversify your portfolio at this point, you are being given an unexpected gift to do so. It won't last long.

 

Another item in Bear Stearns closet was a massive short-position in the ten year treasury. This of course is being unwound this week, which is making the dollar look a bit stronger than it really is. However, don't be confused by this nonsense, the dollar will soon resume its downward trend.

 

The fact that Bear Stearns was shorting the dollar to such a degree shows that they were not playing along with the the Federal Reserve banking crowd. And they have been severely punished by the powers that be.

 

What brought Bear Stearns to its knees was their own riverboat gambling mentality that not only jeopardized them, but the financial system as a whole. This story is just the beginning of what will be a long list of companies that meet a similar fate. Will the Fed and the citizens of the United States be able to bail out all the financial sewage that is about to be uncovered?

 

What the Fed is doing is nothing more than sleight of hand trickery to gain the assets of Bear Stearns. As I have said before, the Federal Reserve is no more "Federal" than Federal Express. It is a private organization owned and controlled by shareholders, the largest of which is J.P. Morgan Chase.

 

J.P. Morgan Chase, in other words, is the Federal Reserve... so don't be surprised that they end up with the assets while you and I pay for the debts from the whole mess.

 

When are people in the United States going to wake up to the ugly realities that are now upon us? This ongoing calamity of financial chaos is going to cause extremely serious consequences to each and every American. Your wealth, security and lifestyle are all at stake as the coming months and years unfold.

 

 

--------------------------------------------

 

Steve, have relayed Jim Sinclair's comments to Adam Hewison.

I wonder if there will be a reply ????????????????

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

another article on the inflation/deflation debate

 

if gold and silver act as cash in deflation then I guess it matters not which one wins in the end.

 

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2008/0324.html

 

“inter-temporal transfer”. I love it

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Article from Goldworld.com :----

 

The demise of Bear Stearns, which was reported to the public last Sunday evening and Monday, has in turn caused their assets to be sold off in masse this week.

 

On their book of liquid assets was a rather large, long gold position. It is being sold off in order to raise cash to offset their massive losses. The spot prices have been hammered because of this activity, but it will be short-term in nature. If you're looking to buy physical precious metals to diversify your portfolio at this point, you are being given an unexpected gift to do so. It won't last long.

 

Another item in Bear Stearns closet was a massive short-position in the ten year treasury. This of course is being unwound this week, which is making the dollar look a bit stronger than it really is. However, don't be confused by this nonsense, the dollar will soon resume its downward trend.

 

The fact that Bear Stearns was shorting the dollar to such a degree shows that they were not playing along with the the Federal Reserve banking crowd. And they have been severely punished by the powers that be.

 

--------------------------------------------

 

Steve, have relayed Jim Sinclair's comments to Adam Hewison.

I wonder if there will be a reply ????????????????

 

Very interesting.

 

Cheers for the relay

It would be a great bet to watch unfold :D

 

[ozbear]

I'm confident that it was on this board that I saw it recently (but not sure what thread and I have tried searching) but someone posted a chart that was indicating that sentiment would turn on 22nd March for a short term and dip again after a couple of months, it was something to do with 8.6 year cycle with it based on pi.

 

Could someone post the link if they can find it.

 

 

[Bobsta]

I'm confident that it was on this board that I saw it recently (but not sure what thread and I have tried searching) but someone posted a chart that was indicating that sentiment would turn on 22nd March for a short term and dip again after a couple of months, it was something to do with 8.6 year cycle with it based on pi.

 

I read it too - I think it was linked on this thread somewhere.

 

There's a MoneyWeek article on it: http://www.moneyweek.com/file/27194/the-st...ket-genius.html

And further googling yields: http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/...n_armstron.html

Frizzers has a thread/post on it here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....3&pid=15270

 

Although I'm sure there's another page I've seen that has a big "VWV" (peak / trough) chart on which I can't find right now. More hunting required.

 

Edited to say: As Frizzers writes for Money Week, I suspect he may have written (or heavily contributed to) the Money Week article linked above - it doesn't have a specific author attributed to it.

[headmelter]

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north615.html

 

 

This link was posted over on hpc, sorry if it has already been posted here.

 

Any opinions?

[Bobsta]

Now I guess I could/should start a new thread on this ... but I feel it's worth discussing here, if you guys/girls don't mind... the Carry Trade.

 

Every now and then, the CHF and JPY have a bad day. This is normally attributed to carry trade activity and usually coincides with a good day on the US (and European) stock markets.

 

Today is a good example: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...;refer=currency ... the standard view is, as has been common for many years, investors "borrow cheap" in Switzerland and Japan to buy US stocks.

 

Now, call me stupid, but what is the current US interest rate right now? And what is it in Switzerland? ...... erm, I know credit is drying up in the US but surely it isn't *really* cheaper to obtain funds in Switzerland, is it? And with the dollar generally weakening, unless the folks carrying out this activity hedge their position WRT currency movements, they're opening themselves up to a shortfall when the time comes to repay the loan. If they are hedging their position then there would be no gain/movement in FX anyway..... so .... well, it just doesn't quite add up to me.

 

I really didn't expect the carry trade to survive this long. Carry Trade unwinding was the buzz-phrase of summer 2007 on HPC.co.uk

[Steve Netwriter]

CIGA,

I think these were the charts you wanted to support your post

 

HPC - Gold Is In Meltdown, - 8% in 3 days

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1030632

 

Steve

[ozbear]

I read it too - I think it was linked on this thread somewhere.

 

There's a MoneyWeek article on it: http://www.moneyweek.com/file/27194/the-st...ket-genius.html

And further googling yields: http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/...n_armstron.html

Frizzers has a thread/post on it here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....3&pid=15270

 

Although I'm sure there's another page I've seen that has a big "VWV" (peak / trough) chart on which I can't find right now. More hunting required.

 

Edited to say: As Frizzers writes for Money Week, I suspect he may have written (or heavily contributed to) the Money Week article linked above - it doesn't have a specific author attributed to it.

 

Thanks for the links, the graph in the contrahour was what I was looking for.

 

So with that in mind are people on this site expecting a continued recover in DOW/S&P for the next few months then, good time to buy some SPX Calls?

 

I'm unsure because in all honesty given the amount of damage done to the banking industry, the crashing house prices, etc, the DOW and S&P sell off seems underdone, I don't really consider a <20% drop as pricing in a recession and seriously damaged consumer.

 

I'd be very interest to hear how others feel the next few months are going to play out in terms of US sentiment, DOW/S&P, US housing, UK Housing and of course Gold.

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north615.html

 

 

This link was posted over on hpc, sorry if it has already been posted here.

 

Any opinions?

 

Yep, it has:

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=33738

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Now I guess I could/should start a new thread on this ... but I feel it's worth discussing here, if you guys/girls don't mind... the Carry Trade.

 

Can I suggest we discuss it here:

 

"Investors Edge" : Markets & Trading

 

YEN to SOAR ? More than even gold ?

...As the yen carry trade unwinds

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2325

 

 

As someone concentrating on Yen and gold/silver, it is one of the two subjects I'm interested in

 

You will see I have posted quite a bit about it

 

 

[Crash Position]

Deleted after seeing above comment....

[UNSHURE]

Thanks for the links, the graph in the contrahour was what I was looking for.

 

So with that in mind are people on this site expecting a continued recover in DOW/S&P for the next few months then, good time to buy some SPX Calls?

 

I'm unsure because in all honesty given the amount of damage done to the banking industry, the crashing house prices, etc, the DOW and S&P sell off seems underdone, I don't really consider a <20% drop as pricing in a recession and seriously damaged consumer.

 

I'd be very interest to hear how others feel the next few months are going to play out in terms of US sentiment, DOW/S&P, US housing, UK Housing and of course Gold.

 

It might be worth listening to the Financial Sense Nwshour at he weekends. In the big picture broadcasts, they attempt to figure out what will happen in the coming months.

 

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

 

At the beginning of this year, they forecast that the year would be a hard year with a soft centre. The start of the year has been very much as they forecasted - bad news coming in, credit tightening, and falling markets. They then predicted that the central banks would overcome these problems with interet rates falls and money printing. This would then result in a good period in the middle of the year with markets rallying. However, by the end of the year, they say that interest rates will start to rise again due to inflatin spiralling out of control. As we go into 2009 things will get progressively worst. They then predict a serious recession (probably hyperinflationayt depression) for 2010.

 

Jim Puplava is also confident about several sectors such as Gold; Energy; infrastructure, commodities etc.

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

“inter-temporal transfer”. I love it

Fisher model

 

Assumptions of the model

consumer's income is constant

maximization of the utility

anything above the line is out of explanation

investments are generators of savings

any property is indivisible and unchangeable

According to this model there are three types of consumption: past, present and future.

 

When making decision between present and future consumption, the consumer takes his previous consumption into account.

 

This decision making is based on indifference map with negative slope because if he consumes something today it means that he can't consume it in the future and vice versa. In general households prefer present consumption to the future one. The most important reason why the consumer should prefer future consumption is the revenue the invested savings can bring.

 

The revenue is in form of interest rate. Nominal interest rate - inflation = real interest rate

 

Denote

 

r: interest rate

Y(t+1): income in time t+1 or a future income

Y(t): income in time t or a present income

Then maximum present consumption is: Y(t) + Y(t+1)/(1+r)

 

The maximum future consumption is: (1+r)*Y(t) + Y(t+1)

 

(VW)

[lowrentyieldmakessense(honest!)]

Fisher model

 

Assumptions of the model

consumer's income is constant

maximization of the utility

anything above the line is out of explanation

investments are generators of savings

any property is indivisible and unchangeable

According to this model there are three types of consumption: past, present and future.

 

When making decision between present and future consumption, the consumer takes his previous consumption into account.

 

This decision making is based on indifference map with negative slope because if he consumes something today it means that he can't consume it in the future and vice versa. In general households prefer present consumption to the future one. The most important reason why the consumer should prefer future consumption is the revenue the invested savings can bring.

 

The revenue is in form of interest rate. Nominal interest rate - inflation = real interest rate

 

Denote

 

r: interest rate

Y(t+1): income in time t+1 or a future income

Y(t): income in time t or a present income

Then maximum present consumption is: Y(t) + Y(t+1)/(1+r)

 

The maximum future consumption is: (1+r)*Y(t) + Y(t+1)

 

(VW)

 

 

bought some more gold and silver today to aid my future consumption

[kingfisher]

Hi,

As we are approacing April, has anyone heard how the IMF is getting on with its attempt to sell some of its Gold?

 

[ologhai]

The long weekend is perhaps adding to the appearance of stability, but the gold and silver prices look pretty settled at the moment, even after NY waking up.

 

How is everyone feeling about the likelihood and timing of a further smackdown over the coming days?

[Bobsta]

The long weekend is perhaps adding to the appearance of stability, but the gold and silver prices look pretty settled at the moment, even after NY waking up.

 

How is everyone feeling about the likelihood and timing of a further smackdown over the coming days?

You beat me to it. I wasn't sure if it was quiet on here as everyone didn't want to tempt fate ... But today I'm feeling much better about "riding the bull". Of course, it's an easy ride when moving in the "right" direction... but I'm generally in a much better mood than I was last week, having put it all into perspective and spent the weekend reading up.

 

So. Yes. Smackdowns. I'm sure they'll come. We just have to accept them as part of the package.

 

(interesting that a number of folks turned bearish on gold and silver during the last week - I'll probably be keeping an eye on them more than anyone going forward)

 

[Gatesy]

The long weekend is perhaps adding to the appearance of stability, but the gold and silver prices look pretty settled at the moment, even after NY waking up.

 

How is everyone feeling about the likelihood and timing of a further smackdown over the coming days?

"An appearance of stability" is a good description for the current state of things...

 

I'd rather a smackdown didn't happen; I'd prefer a bit of a meander for a couple of weeks if anything to build strength for the next push up, but that probably reflects my own circumstances than anything else!

[marceau]

The long weekend is perhaps adding to the appearance of stability, but the gold and silver prices look pretty settled at the moment, even after NY waking up.

 

How is everyone feeling about the likelihood and timing of a further smackdown over the coming days?

 

 

I still think we'll get another smackdown, but what comforts me is the way gold has held up so far on the down days. It's only managed to get below $910 twice so far, and both of those occasions were outside NY trading hours.

 

This gives me some confidence that we'll at least hold $900. But the next downleg is likely to test that level if nothing else, so stay vigilant. I wouldn't fancy hopping in at the moment to be honest.

[Tahoma]

This gives me some confidence that we'll at least hold $900. But the next downleg is likely to test that level if nothing else, so stay vigilant. I wouldn't fancy hopping in at the moment to be honest.

 

Ah, who knows. My gut feeling is many parties are pleasantly surprised they got it down as far as they did and may not waste any more ammo. It has already recovered 30% off it's lows, and we are talking days here.

 

Once the shot of 0.75% Laudenum in the punch has worn off, it will be back to bad business as usual and waiting for the hangover.

[qwerty]

Nice real time list here of miners making up the HUI index constantly updates for those interested.

 

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=%5EHUI