GOLD

[Philder]

Why don't you ever post anything positive? Carrying on like that could get you mistakingly identified as a troll you know!

 

To be fair, there are plenty of people who only ever post positive gold stories - same rules should apply really. Serves as a nice balance IMO.

[fexx]

Don't sweat the small stuff. What you have to get right is the fundamentals. Given that the U.S. is like a person on $22,000 a year with a credit card balance somewhere between $142,000 and $2,100,000, there is no question what they will do with their printing press.

 

(From a post by Santa over at TFM)

 

Here is why S&P downgraded the US credit rating.

 

• U.S. Tax revenue: $2,170,000,000,000

• Fed budget: $3,820,000,000,000

• New debt: $ 1,650,000,000,000

• National debt: $14,271,000,000,000

• Recent budget cut: $ 38,500,000,000

 

Now let’s remove 8 zeros and pretend it’s a household budget.

 

• Annual family income: $21,700

• Money the family spent: $38,200

• New debt on the credit card: $16,500

• Outstanding balance on the credit card: $142,710

• Total budget cuts: $385

 

Anyone done something similar for the UK?

[G0ldfinger]

The headless chickens (read: paper bugs) are still running from one fiat currency to the other.

 

It is so pathetic.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-08/-desperate-haven-rush-to-boost-norway-krone.html

’Desperate’ Haven Rush to Boost Norway Krone

...

Norway’s krone will gain further as investors “desperate” for protection against a deepening European debt crisis turn to one of the few haven markets that isn’t overvalued, said Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s biggest currency trader.

[TinBrick]

The "double top" painters are now at work.

 

Very amusing to watch.

 

 

The sophistication shows through in this remark... Not!

 

You don't have to be a card carrying member of GATA to recognise that there is something very peculiar about this price action - a picture is worth 1,000 words!

 

 

(By the way, those are Dan Norcini's comments on the chart, not mine.)

[G0ldfinger]

IMO the manic daytraders react to a price formation like this like technically trained Pavlov Dogs, without any appreciation of the fundamentals. So, there is some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy at work. I have no doubt that the gold haters and manic traders will nicely shape a double top (in fact, it is there already), only to fail spectacularly within a reasonable amount of time.

 

It's buy & hold that takes the Pavlov Dog woof-woof and drooling out of the equation - something I am quite happy about.

 

The "double top" painters are now at work.

Very amusing to watch.

The sophistication shows through in this remark... Not!

[James]

Some interesting read on manipulation tactics.

 

Nice example:

Make a sound in the east, then strike in the west - During the brief period of calm between wild rides up and down in price, headlines will pop up that make it seem like the bubble-talk is correct: such as George Soros selling his GLD ETF shares, while buried in the story lies the truth that he moved into gold mining stocks.

 

Ancient warfare translates very well to business and trading today.

 

The greatest contemporary battlefield is that of the gold trade: it is ground zero for the greatest transfer of wealth in human history.

 

Within the past week, the Swiss National Bank dismissed the possibility of interventions to manage the Swiss Franc and then did a complete about-face on that stance.

 

These are efforts undertaken during the latter stages of a battle, when one side starts gaining an obvious edge over the other.

 

From the Thirty-Six Stratagems, the following is a brief outline of the primary methods being used by big players to keep the structure of our global finance alive...

 

More from Noblenomads - My link

[G0ldfinger]

Ben Davies on King World News said that the one steep drop in gold happened five minutes before the Swiss announcement, which of course was extremely bullish for gold because all those holders of Swiss Fraenkli have to panic-buy gold now as they realize that the Franc is just another fiat turd.

 

Manipulation?

[G0ldfinger]

...such as George Soros selling his GLD ETF shares, while buried in the story lies the truth that he moved into gold mining stocks.

So, essentially good old Georgieboy is doing what I do with my monthly new investments.

[bob monkhouse]

GF, I would be interested to hear what you think of this fund (i dont know enough about individual Miners)

 

Blackrock Gold and General fund. I avoid the initial charges via Hargreaves Lansdowne on Blackrock and the annual charge is 1.75%.

 

Their top 10 holdings:

 

1 Newcrest Mining 9.92% Australia Mining

2 Fresnillo 7.45% United Kingdom Mining

3 Kinross Gold Corp. 6.68% Canada Mining

4 Goldcorp 6.14% Canada Mining

5 Randgold Resources Ltd. ADS 3.94% United States Mining

6 Industrias Penoles S.A. de C.V. 3.69% Mexico Industrial Metals & Mining

7 Newmont Mining Corp. 3.62% United States Mining

8 Agnico-Eagle Mines 3.54% Canada Mining

9 IAMGOLD Corp. 3.37% Canada Mining

10 Eldorado Gold Corp. 3.16% Canada Mining

[Errol]

Have a large quantity of Blackrock gold purchased some 7+ yrs ago. Done well for me (!).

[frizzers]

Hey - senior gold stocks broke out to new highs .

 

Breaking out of a massive cup and handle made over several years.

 

They're going to take everything else up with .

 

Every year get long in the summer and enjoy the autumn. It's happening again.

[James]

So, essentially good old Georgieboy is doing what I do with my monthly new investments.

 

Yep, same here GF - buying & researching some junior miners which are currently on sale IMO.

 

 

A view on recent SNB fiasco from Turd Ferguson:

 

Quote:

In what can only be construed as encouraging action, gold flew back higher today, nearly to the level it was before the blatant manipulation of Wednesday. I'll be very interested in the OI numbers tomorrow to see if today was primarily due to continued short covering by The Cartel.

 

I'll find it quite amusing if it was. To think that the SNB deliberately tried to manipulate gold lower only to be thwarted by the greedy, frightened, short-covering Cartel is wonderful to consider. Sort of like having your two worst enemies declare war upon each other.

[stunlee]

Haha.

 

Another manipulation attempt going on right now I think with a thirty dollar fall in a minute or so. That makes it the third big attempt this week, quite astounding to watch.

 

Edit: With these manipulations now appearing to become regular and moving gold down about between 40 and 60 dollars each time, would it be worth having a permanent small buy limit placed say 50 dollars below current market price?

[warpig]

This springs to mind. They must be getting desperate now.

 

 

 

Haha.

 

Another manipulation attempt going on right now I think with a thirty dollar fall in a minute or so. That makes it the third big attempt this week, quite astounding to watch.

 

Edit: With these manipulations now appearing to become regular and moving gold down about between 40 and 60 dollars each time, would it be worth having a permanent small buy limit placed say 50 dollars below current market price?

[warpig]

Got gold?

 

Stephen Leeb - Expect Enormous Gains in Gold & Silver

 

With continued volatility in gold & silver, today King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb to get his thoughts on gold, silver and what is happening with the Fed. When asked about the comments by Chicago Fed Governor Charles Evens, Leeb responded, “It’s the first time, at least in my lifetime and I think in the history of the Fed, where they have said explicitly that fighting unemployment is much more important than worrying about inflation. That’s a very big deal. When people think of central banks they think of one thing, controlling inflation.”

 

“Evans said a couple of days ago, ‘We are going to pay attention to our dual mandate, which is unemployment and inflation, and for the time being, unemployment is a much more important factor. We’re going to let inflation go for a while.’ That to me is huge, here we have the Fed picking up the mantel and saying, ‘We’re going to do whatever it takes to get unemployment down and if that involves higher inflation, so be it, we’re going to accept it.’

 

My message to people is get ready for a major change in the American economy because they are not going to be able to get unemployment down that much, without tolerating much higher inflation and I mean much higher. Commodity prices are likely to go through the roof.

 

The mother of all deflations in this country was in the ‘30s and following the Second World War we had inflation of 20% in 1947, the highest in modern times. This time around I don’t think we are going to stop (inflation) at 20%, I don’t think we are going to stop at 30%, it will be massive inflation.

 

Bernanke is saying, ‘We are going to use aggressive financial tools to get this economy going, to get unemployment down.’ If you put his comments in the context of inflation, already running above 40 year averages, it’s an incredibly strong statement and I think it backs up what I am saying about the Evans speech being a point of inflection.

 

We are going to have to except much, much higher inflation or risk a massive depression, something that could make the 1930s look like a picnic....

 

When asked about the implications for the gold market Leeb replied, “What this says is that the rally in gold has just started. We haven’t had the inflation yet. What we’ve had right now is an appetizer for what’s to come in the gold and precious metals markets.

 

Gold is going to go much, much higher and silver is headed into triple digits, that’s just the way it is. Gold is going to become the asset of choice in this country and right now it is not even considered to be an asset class (by the mainstream). It will be ‘the’ asset class in the next several years. You’re looking at things you don’t even want to think about because if you say what could happen, people look at you like you’re a lunatic.

 

We did a calculation and we valued all of the gold shares that are available to buy today, from Barrick to GoldCorp, even including GLD (the gold ETF) and we came up with a number that is maybe a little bit higher than the valuation of Apple. One stock basically matches the value of all of the gold that you can buy on the public market in the United States.

 

The potential (for gains) is enormous, simply enormous, and for these junior gold stocks, the ones that have the wherewithal to increase production, you don’t even want to put targets on them. You just want to say you are looking at a multi-bagger.”

[Errol]

Gold won't complain:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8SGgzK_D60&feature=player_embedded

[stunlee]

This springs to mind. They must be getting desperate now.

 

I think I shall know gold as "Bouncy" from now on. Even with the manipulation that looks like a fairly bullish Friday daily candle to me, maybe another go to 1900 next week?

[G0ldfinger]

U.S. money velocity is at a historic low (for data since 1959). So, all the naysayers and fiat money bugs that think gold can only do well under inflation: at least from a velocity point of view inflationary pressure is at historic lows. Now, the problem is of course that MZM money supply itself is meanwhile going ballistic. So, when money velocity will get back to normal, and then beyond, you will see inflation that will scare the **** out of you. And I think this is when we will get to know the real nature of this gold bull market.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/US_Money_Velocity_LOG.html

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/US_MZM.html

 

See also

 

http://gold.approximity.com/The_Mother_Of_All_Velocity_Explosions.html

[simonc]

U.S. money velocity is at a historic low (for data since 1959). So, all the naysayers and fiat money bugs that think gold can only do well under inflation: at least from a velocity point of view inflationary pressure is at historic lows. Now, the problem is of course that MZM money supply itself is meanwhile going ballistic. So, when money velocity will get back to normal, and then beyond, you will see inflation that will scare the **** out of you. And I think this is when we will get to know the real nature of this gold bull market.

 

GF, those are great charts.

 

I've always held the opinion that gold is the PM of choice to hold during a debt deflation which is where I believe we are now, especially following a major credit crisis event.

 

With zirp and stimuli in various guises, (as you intimate MZM nears exponential proportions) with any uptick in velocity we will surely see a snap back to a high inflationary environment.

 

At this point we should switch to holding silver which outperforms gold in inflation?

 

I've been saying for some time; deflation. Then inflation.

 

I'm not yet convinced of the hyper scenario and I'm pretty convinced deflation (in assets normally financed with credit) could see Japanese style tenacity.

 

Perhaps we should be trying to monitor velocity and give it a higher priority than CPI or RPI

 

Thoughts?

[romans holiday]

U.S. money velocity is at a historic low (for data since 1959). So, all the naysayers and fiat money bugs that think gold can only do well under inflation: at least from a velocity point of view inflationary pressure is at historic lows. Now, the problem is of course that MZM money supply itself is meanwhile going ballistic. So, when money velocity will get back to normal, and then beyond, you will see inflation that will scare the **** out of you. And I think this is when we will get to know the real nature of this gold bull market.

Errrr, no... there have been a few predicting that gold would perform well in a "non-inflationary, low money velocity" setting.

[Carlton]

Stewart Thomson is at it again:

 

“If only I had done this, if only I had done that, I’d be so much further ahead now”. Yes, let’s talk about “now”. Click here now to view the monthly meditation chart for GDX. When you meditate, you can’t have thoughts in your mind. So, annotations are useless when it comes time to meditate on a chart. Just look at that chart. GDX has risen about tenfold since the great dollar bear market began. Meditate, and then ask yourself, realistically, if you called all those small rises and falls, on the road from $6.46 to $66.

 

Gold and gold stocks gyrate. If you have no short positions in play, you book no profits when price declines. When price falls, all you think about is how much you are losing on your long positions, and how much of your position you should have sold at the latest minor top, to have avoided being “where you are now”. You understand the rewards of flip trading, but do you really understand the risk side of the equation? In this crisis, flip trading could put you on a real breadline, alongside Elmer Fudd Public Investor.

 

The Sheriff. There’s a new sheriff in town, and his name is Mr. Unleveraged Physical Gold. This period in time can’t be 2008 again because the physical gold players are beginning to act aggressively.

 

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1315930140.php

[Carlton]

Important:

 

 

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1315949637.php

[romans holiday]

By the long term trend, a consolidation over the next few months to 1650 isn't out of the question:

 

 

Wouldn't take much to then see it spike to 2000 bit later.

[romans holiday]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/gold-price-may-rise-to-2-500-by-2013-newmont-ceo-o-brien-says.html

 

Gold Price May Rise to $2,500 by 2013, Newmont CEO O’Brien Says

 

Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), the largest U.S. gold producer, said the price of the metal may gain by more than a third to $2,500 an ounce by 2013.

 

“I don’t see the facts to cause the gold market to change in at least five years,” Chief Executive Officer Richard O’Brien said in Dalian, China today in an interview. Gold may stay high for the next five years, he said.

 

The gold price will rise to more than $2,000 an ounce in 2012, Brien said. Gold was $1,843.57 an ounce at 10:02 a.m. Hong Kong time.

[Bosworth]

I view the price of gold in terms of a long term trend sitting on top of foundations of exceptional items. The trend will revert to medium term but this will be shifted up the axis as the exceptional items keep making the foundations taller (eg US rating, war, Euro issues, sovereign default risk).