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Gold bubble confirmed.

 

How do I know?

 

Mentioned on BBC's Torchwood episode 8: "Stock in depression, buy gold!"

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Can anyone add their own view as to how this volatility in the lease rate will affect POG please?

 

Gold Lease Rate

 

Many thanks

 

I think it's significant that we now have mainstream financial media postulating that central banks are leasing gold to ETFs on a massive scale in a bid to soak up gold demand without squeezing the physical market.

 

We could be on the verge of an explosion:

 

9itniw.jpg

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U.S. money velocity is at a historic low (for data since 1959). So, all the naysayers and fiat money bugs that think gold can only do well under inflation: at least from a velocity point of view inflationary pressure is at historic lows. Now, the problem is of course that MZM money supply itself is meanwhile going ballistic. So, when money velocity will get back to normal, and then beyond, you will see inflation that will scare the **** out of you. And I think this is when we will get to know the real nature of this gold bull market.

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/US_Money_Velocity_LOG.html

US_Money_Velocity_LOG.png

 

http://gold.approximity.com/since1959/US_MZM.html

US_MZM.png

 

See also

 

http://gold.approximity.com/The_Mother_Of_All_Velocity_Explosions.html

Velocity_Gold_281010.PNG

 

Hey Goldfinger, can you explain exactly what MZM is, to a layman like myself?

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Can anyone add their own view as to how this volatility in the lease rate will affect POG please?

 

Gold Lease Rate

 

Many thanks

Simple: Lease rate uses LiEbor. So it's not accurate...

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shadow-banking-contagion-approaches-european-banks-sign-private-repo-agreements-us-counterparts

In what is probably the riskiest escalation of the second credit crisis to date, IFR has released information that was until now speculated, but not confirmed, namely that European banks not only continue to make a mockery out of LiEbor by posting whatever rates they deem appropriate (for the simple reason they don't use interbank funding), while in the meantime going directly to US banks, using shadow, and hence completely unregulated conduits, in the form of private repo arrangements with "at least three of the five biggest US banks."

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By the long term trend, a consolidation over the next few months to 1650 isn't out of the question:

 

ltt.gif

 

Wouldn't take much to then see it spike to 2000 bit later.

That should mean we get an explosion upwards in price over the next week then, if your last call is anything to go by. wink.gif

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Looks like some more gold manipulation going on today, with a very sudden fall starting at 2.37pm European time. Maybe that is to be the new tactic, force gold down a few minutes before major news announcements,.

The announcements seem to read like more printy printy.

 

http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2011/html/pr110915.en.html

 

"The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided, in coordination with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, to conduct three US dollar liquidity-providing operations"

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Looks like some more gold manipulation going on today, with a very sudden fall starting at 2.37pm European time. Maybe that is to be the new tactic, force gold down a few minutes before major news announcements,.

The announcements seem to read like more printy printy.

 

http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2011/html/pr110915.en.html

 

"The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided, in coordination with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, to conduct three US dollar liquidity-providing operations"

 

It's absolute rank manipulation. Central banks are leasing gold in extreme quantities. The evidence is in the gold forward rate discussed in the Alphaville article referenced by a previous poster. Every aspect of news flow is wildly bullish for gold at the moment and they are doing everything they can to keep a lid on it.

 

It's pure desperation and will fail. I don't accept for one second that demand for gold is waning, as certain people are suggesting without any evidence beyond charts painted by the manipulators trying to trip the algos into liquidating. On the contrary, every schmuck like me is dreaming of one more opportunity to back up the truck.

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It's absolute rank manipulation. Central banks are leasing gold in extreme quantities. The evidence is in the gold forward rate discussed in the Alphaville article referenced by a previous poster. Every aspect of news flow is wildly bullish for gold at the moment and they are doing everything they can to keep a lid on it.

 

It's pure desperation and will fail. I don't accept for one second that demand for gold is waning, as certain people are suggesting without any evidence beyond charts painted by the manipulators trying to trip the algos into liquidating. On the contrary, every schmuck like me is dreaming of one more opportunity to back up the truck.

 

Yes indeed, wouldn't it be funny if the Western central banks were trying to manipulate it downwards and the Chinese were using the opportunity to buy more. That said I hope they keep going on with it, I would be very pleased to see it below 1000 pounds an ounce again for a bit.

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I think it's unlikely, but if it did happen that would be the bottom IMO. I think we're on the cusp of an explosive move up, personally I wouldn't worry too much about the buying the absolute bottom, within 10% is perfectly acceptable.

 

 

 

Do you see it hitting $1650?

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I think it's unlikely, but if it did happen that would be the bottom IMO. I think we're on the cusp of an explosive move up, personally I wouldn't worry too much about the buying the absolute bottom, within 10% is perfectly acceptable.

 

 

If that's any help, I reckon that if we reach sustainably reach it, 1750 would be a critical level. it sounds like it's a support level (see horizontal line). Also, it's nearing the "buy zone" of the Bollinger band.

Also, it looks like we're closing to C on an Elliot wave...

 

That said, I've also added in red the 144d MA for reference, and it's still a long way down...

 

post-3709-0-65097100-1316171864_thumb.jpg

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My favourite is the 50 day EMA, it has provided excellent support for the past couple of years. That is currently at around 1745 dollars and this current correction failed to get anywhere near it, getting at its lowest to 1762 on my chart. This current daily candle is also shaping up to be fairly bullish looking, I think that that could have been The Dip. Of course there could be another not at all suspicious looking 50 dollar fall in two minutes which would render any technical analysis pointless.

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Dutch asking about their gold

http://www.vrijspreker.nl/wp/2011/09/sp-stelt-kamervragen-over-de-nederlandse-goudvoorraad/

 

Dutch Socialist Party has asked the Secretary of the Treasury for the whereabouts of the Dutch Central Bank’s gold

 

On Friday 16 September, the Dutch Socialists Party (SP)’s spokesman for financial affairs, Mr. Ewout Irrgang, has asked the Dutch Secretary of the Treasury 10 detailed questions about the gold supposedly held by the Dutch Central Bank. Questions vary from: where is the gold? why are gold and gold receivables one line item? how much gold is loaned out? All questions (in Dutch) can be found here and cpied below.

 

This is potentially a big breakthrough for global awareness on how central banks hide crucial info from the public and the disastrous effects central banks have on society. The society benefits from competitive currencies, chosen voluntarily by the people.

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How High Can Gold and Silver Climb?

 

Jeff Clark, Casey Research writes: With gold a stone’s throw away from $2,000 and already up 27% on the year, the objective investor might begin wondering how much higher both it and silver can climb. After all, gold is nearing its inflation-adjusted 1980 high – and that peak was a spike that lasted only one day.

 

 

So, how much return can we realistically expect in each metal at this point? And is one a better buy than the other? There are dozens of ways to calculate price projections, but I’m going to use data based strictly on past price behavior from the 1970s bull market.

 

...

 

One might be skeptical because these projections are based on past performance, and nothing says they must hit these levels. That’s a valid point. But I would argue that we’re in uncharted territory with our debt load and money creation – and neither shows any sign of ending. We had a lot of problems in the 1970s, but our current fiscal and monetary abuse dwarfs what was taking place then. The need to protect one’s assets gets more pressing each day, not less so. That to me is the key signaling this bull market is far from over.

 

One may also be skeptical because the media continue to claim gold is in a bubble. To date their proclamations have been nothing but a great fake-out, every time. Want to know when we’ll really be in a bubble? When they stop saying it’s one and actually start buying and recommending gold. When they begin running 15-minute updates on the latest gold stock. When you are sought out relentlessly by your friends and relatives because they know you know something about all this “gold and silver stuff.”

 

All told, I think the baked-in-the-cake inflation – rooted in insane debt levels and deficit spending – will be one of the primary drivers for rising precious metals this decade. This means the masses will look for a store of value against a plunging loss of purchasing power. Enter gold and silver.

 

The current correction may not be over, and we can count on further pullbacks along the way. But the data here suggest the upside in gold and silver is much bigger than any short-term gyration – or any worry that may accompany it.

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http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/20_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Floor_in_the_Gold_Market.html

“As soon as China closes trading each day, that is when the selling starts in the paper markets. These raids on the price are designed to get weaker players flushed out of the futures markets so they (commercials) can cover some of their short positions."

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I liked this quote. :)

 

As the central banks come to grips with the reality that the leased gold is gone, there may be a religious experience to the upside in gold and you will see the gold price break the $2,000 level.

 

 

 

http://kingworldnews...old_Market.html

"As soon as China closes trading each day, that is when the selling starts in the paper markets. These raids on the price are designed to get weaker players flushed out of the futures markets so they (commercials) can cover some of their short positions."

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http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/20_London_Trader_-_Massive_Physical_Floor_in_the_Gold_Market.html

“As soon as China closes trading each day, that is when the selling starts in the paper markets. These raids on the price are designed to get weaker players flushed out of the futures markets so they (commercials) can cover some of their short positions."

It was an interesting article; however the "London Trader" says that central bank gold is physically going to the East. This is contrary to what Rickards has explained - that the central banks maintain possession of their leased gold and that it will be the commercial banks who are left naked short on gold when the CBs terminate the leases.

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Bill Still on the Keiser report discusses the US gold reserves and states he doesn't believe there is any fine gold left in Fort Knox. He also talks about the orange hue of the bars (copper/coin melt) in the 1974 viewing. Personally I think Jim R is wrong.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrSWpmtm0kY&feature=player_detailpage#t=812s

A direct link to that section of the show

and more details here.

 

It was an interesting article; however the "London Trader" says that central bank gold is physically going to the East. This is contrary to what Rickards has explained - that the central banks maintain possession of their leased gold and that it will be the commercial banks who are left naked short on gold when the CBs terminate the leases.

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