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Hello everyone. I'm surprised that the price hasn't fallen further given the perception in the media that the storm clouds have blown over and every thing is back to normal. Still I got some silver on the dip so I am pleased about that. Are we still expecting $1200 by year end?

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Hello everyone. I'm surprised that the price hasn't fallen further given the perception in the media that the storm clouds have blown over and every thing is back to normal. Still I got some silver on the dip so I am pleased about that. Are we still expecting $1200 by year end?

I think $1200 sounds reasonable this year. I am not ready for THE big parabolic run up just yet.. I think we'll see $1500 in 2009 and possibly $2000 plus during 2010.

 

The big bloff off top is surely 2011 to 2012.

 

Who knows how high it will go then.

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I think $1200 sounds reasonable this year. I am not ready for THE big parabolic run up just yet.. I think we'll see $1500 in 2009 and possibly $2000 plus during 2010.

 

The big bloff off top is surely 2011 to 2012.

 

Who knows how high it will go then.

why dont we ask this idiot

 

I'll keep us on course

 

does he really believe his own speal

 

i found this article via a thread that Durch started on hpc - i dont read the sun honest

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Hello everyone. I'm surprised that the price hasn't fallen further given the perception in the media that the storm clouds have blown over and every thing is back to normal. Still I got some silver on the dip so I am pleased about that. Are we still expecting $1200 by year end?

 

The Goldseek radio people had been predicting a pullback in the Gold price to about $800. They were predicting that when Gold was on it's way up to $1,000. They were right about the pullback allthough it has not dropped to $800 yet.

 

Folowing the pullback they are predicting gold to rise to around $1,500 this year I think.

 

Last year, when we had the first 'mid summer credit crises', gold fell along with stocks (albeit mederatly). However, shortly after, Gold went on it's third and fourth quarter bull run. There could be some sort of pattern emerging in that Gold initially goes down due to traders selling off to meet margin calls in a cises (and perhaps central bank intervention to stop gold taking off when the rest of the market is tanking). However, following this, there is a 'flight to quality' along with a 'seized opportunity' (going by what people on this site are doing). This sends Gold soaring back up. This kind of thing might be repeated numerous times in the coming months.

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I hope you're right. I'm ready to add a few ounces of gold, but keep waiting for a significant drop.

 

Don't think I've got the bottle to hold out for $800 though !

First sign of daylight below $900 will probably be my trigger.

 

Regards

Dutch

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This is interesting. Looking at the Euro, DOW & US$ versus the Yen:

 

Relative_to_Yen_080326.gif

 

 

And this shows how Gold & Yen are the winners.

 

Comparison_080326.gif

 

 

 

I got the idea from this excellent article:

 

The Collection Agency Weekly Report- Yen Carry Trade

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4122.html

 

We are at a critical junction here, either direct Central Bank intervention stops Yen appreciation (remember Yen is up against just about everything) and restores stability or we could see a capitulation. With a lack of credit liquidity and therefore further leverage unavailable for Hedge Funds, Banks and Institutional Brokers, no wonder the Fed has spread its largesse this past week. If the carry trades in Financial Sector cannot add capital (margin calls) or double up, hoping for a reversal then they are stuffed, roasted alive.

 

So what will be the outcome? Let us look at this realistically, not at what should happen but at what the interventionist policy prone Central Banks are likely to do. We do not want to get caught on the wrong side of this.

 

As much as I would hate to see it on a macro-fundamental long term view because of the damage it will cause, I think Central Banks will intervene, they know of no other reaction. The only question open now, in my opinion, is the timing. Do the Central Bankers wait for the beginning of a capitulation move or do they move earlier to try and prevent it?

 

Looking at the timing the Fed took over Bear, they were deeply concerned about the Far East reaction (Greenspan was asked what would be the biggest change to his routine after he left the Fed, he replied “not having to check the Tokyo markets first thing in the morning”) and ensured the plan was released before Far East markets sold off heavily (they bounced on the announcement). So we need to be prepared for an attempt to push the value of the Yen down, to re-invigorate the carry trade and stop Yen based losses. If such intervention does happen (I could be wrong, I have been before) the rally in stocks could be fast and large. As the Financials would benefit the most, I would expect them to rocket higher.

 

However, any such move may well be temporary. Remember, Banks, Institutions, Primary Dealers and through them Hedge Funds are surviving on the Feds willingness to lend. The Fed will want their money and assets back (with a profit, notice Fed lending is not free) and a rally could well be an opportune time to unwind positions, drawback leverage and withdraw credit facilities on repayment. Look for strong hands to sell into the weak hands who buy. Keep an eye on the financial media, if it starts telling investors that the good times are back, be wary.

 

 

The blog by Mick Phoenix:

http://thoughtsfromthetrenches.blogspot.co...march-2008.html

 

From what I've just read, I think he is a writer to watch.

That article is well above average :D

 

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I think $1200 sounds reasonable this year. I am not ready for THE big parabolic run up just yet.. I think we'll see $1500 in 2009

 

That's very similar to the targets I'm hoping for over the next year or two. As a brit, I'm also thinking that $:£ may move back to about 1.7-1.8:1 in that time frame as the UK economy really starts to go down the toilet bigtime.

 

 

On a separate OT note, I wrapped off the bank holiday weekend with a James Bond movie night with some mates. Laughed my a$$ off the whole way through Goldfinger - they just dont make movie villains and scripts like that anymore!! And boy was $1 million a lot of more good delivery bars in those days!!!!!

Can anyone with expertise comment on the accuracy of the plot ? (I'm a bit nerdy when it comes to science :P ) Surely if an atomic device went off in Fort Knox, contaminating the US gold reserve with radioisotope, any iodine-131 contaminant could simply be removed by just smelting the affected gold once again?

 

 

 

 

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Fisher model

 

Assumptions of the model

consumer's income is constant

maximization of the utility

anything above the line is out of explanation

investments are generators of savings

any property is indivisible and unchangeable

According to this model there are three types of consumption: past, present and future.

 

When making decision between present and future consumption, the consumer takes his previous consumption into account.

 

This decision making is based on indifference map with negative slope because if he consumes something today it means that he can't consume it in the future and vice versa. In general households prefer present consumption to the future one. The most important reason why the consumer should prefer future consumption is the revenue the invested savings can bring.

 

The revenue is in form of interest rate. Nominal interest rate - inflation = real interest rate

 

Denote

 

r: interest rate

Y(t+1): income in time t+1 or a future income

Y(t): income in time t or a present income

Then maximum present consumption is: Y(t) + Y(t+1)/(1+r)

 

The maximum future consumption is: (1+r)*Y(t) + Y(t+1)

 

(VW)

 

Thanks for that. I never knew I lived by such a complicated formula !

I always just saved up for stuff before I bought it :lol:

It's seemed simple to me. Save, wait, gain, and then buy it cheaper and with some money left over from the gain.

And you get to learn patience and the value of money :D

 

I know to a large percentage of the population the above will make no sense :lol:

 

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I think $1200 sounds reasonable this year. I am not ready for THE big parabolic run up just yet.. I think we'll see $1500 in 2009 and possibly $2000 plus during 2010.

 

The big bloff off top is surely 2011 to 2012.

 

Who knows how high it will go then.

 

That seems to be following a 30% increase pattern, like last years gains. I hope you a right! I guess it depends allot on what happens geopolitically and financially too.

 

 

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That's very similar to the targets I'm hoping for over the next year or two. As a brit, I'm also thinking that $:£ may move back to about 1.7-1.8:1 in that time frame as the UK economy really starts to go down the toilet bigtime.

 

 

On a separate OT note, I wrapped off the bank holiday weekend with a James Bond movie night with some mates. Laughed my a$$ off the whole way through Goldfinger - they just dont make movie villains and scripts like that anymore!! And boy was $1 million a lot of more good delivery bars in those days!!!!!

Can anyone with expertise comment on the accuracy of the plot ? (I'm a bit nerdy when it comes to science :P ) Surely if an atomic device went off in Fort Knox, contaminating the US gold reserve with radioisotope, any iodine-131 contaminant could simply be removed by just smelting the affected gold once again?

 

What gold in Fort Knox? :)

 

And where is Goldfinger? He can come out now, golds going back up!

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That seems to be following a 30% increase pattern, like last years gains. I hope you a right! I guess it depends allot on what happens geopolitically and financially too.

I can't totally discount a 1975 style recession hit on gold completely which may leave it trading at a fair bit lower for quite a long time. The TA charts show fibonacci retracements back towards the $800 and even $700's.

 

Then again I can't rule out gold doing a Platinum style parabolic move up and then settling much higher for a while.

 

All I'm doing is holding firm and adding to my stash at every available dip and opportunity.

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Greetings from overseas, where at the moment I am trying to help a business that suffers immensely from commodities inflation and a weak US-Dollar. I hope everyone had a nice Easter. Gold back at almost $940 as I am writing. End of the 'correction'? Maybe. :)

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What gold in Fort Knox? :)

 

And where is Goldfinger? He can come out now, golds going back up!

:lol: Sorry, had a very busy Easter, and this week is full of work too. So, not much time to post. Next week will be 'better' again. :)

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Blimey, and I was worried this thread was getting quiet.

 

But word is the older blonde in the video is the famous pornstar Linzi Drew.

 

 

Not that I would know about things like that. :)

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I don't know if my Amateur Hour charts are any use to anyone (including me), but here are updated moving average and Bollinger band charts for gold and silver (up to yesterday):

 

Gold (MA and Bollinger):

 

 

 

Silver (MA and Bollinger):

 

 

 

Gold seems to have come close to returning to its 50-day MA (and the lower Bollinger band), but silver is more or less moving sideways for now it seems.

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I put a spreadbet on Gold rising on Friday evening from $915. Currently +£1180 (it was only £5 a point bet!), ive just raised the Guaranteed stop loss up behind spot price from where I had it at the start (originally stop at $897).

 

I hate spreadbetting when I cant monitor the bet and close it at will (I dont have internet access where I work).

 

Any thoughts about other spreadbets over the next week?

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I put a spreadbet on Gold rising on Friday evening from $915. Currently +£1180 (it was only £5 a point bet!), ive just raised the Guaranteed stop loss up behind spot price from where I had it at the start (originally stop at $897).

 

I hate spreadbetting when I cant monitor the bet and close it at will (I dont have internet access where I work).

 

Any thoughts about other spreadbets over the next week?

 

Why close it? Leave it open!! You effectively bought £45ks worth of gold (£50 per dollar). Keep it!

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Why close it? Leave it open!! You effectively bought £45ks worth of gold (£50 per dollar). Keep it!

 

Yeah ...... i am keeping it ..... just protecting myself against any big falls - any more smackdowns etc & lock in some profit.

 

Gold is surging now .......... my bet is now up to +£1300

 

UPDATE :

 

OOPs .. I blinked = +£1400

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Yeah ...... i am keeping it ..... just protecting myself against any big falls - any more smackdowns etc & lock in some profit.

 

Gold is surging now .......... my bet is now up to +£1300

 

UPDATE :

 

OOPs .. I blinked = +£1400

 

This link provides some very interesting food for thought for potetntial or existing traders. Certainly worth a look IMO.

 

How to Trade Futures

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Interesting comment on a blog - Why Now?

 

Why Now?

 

There has been no shortage of commentators and players willing to vouch that this is the worst financial crisis they have ever seen. Equally, there has been no shortage of bailout moves by the Federal Reserve–remedies that put “the Greenspan Put” to shame in their magnitude.

And yet the market meltdown continues, and the casualties continue to mount, with Bear Stearns the latest–and surely not the last.

In all this, no one yet seems to have posed the question of “why now?”. Why is the crisis clearly more severe this time than ever before, and why are remedies that worked relatively quickly in the past (remember the fast turnaround of the market after October 1987, and the rapid recovery from the rescue of Long Term Capital Management?) failling today?

The answer is, simply, that the world has never in its history carried the level of debt that it is carrying today. The remedies that worked when America’s private debt to GDP ratio was a mere 150 percent (see Figure 1) are inadequate when that ratio is 275 percent.

 

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Hi,

As we are approacing April, has anyone heard how the IMF is getting on with its attempt to sell some of its Gold?

 

Haven't seen nothing new, these are the last articles I read:

 

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3879.html

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/ARhome.asp?VAfg=1...amp;T_ARID=5812

 

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3436377.ece

 

Given the US Treasury said it approved the sale does it mean it will go ahead?

 

"spokesman for the Treasury said that the US agreed with the IMF that its plan to sell nearly 13 million ounces of gold was 'probably the most viable' way of securing the organisation’s long-term funding." - was there an alternative?

 

Comments on the IMF move welcome pls.

 

SafeBetter

 

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More dire news from the US today I see, new home sales lowest ever, crude and gas reserves depleting rapidly. I'm sure the Fed were patting themeselves on the back massively following last week's triumph of misdirection. Looks like the spin they put out has already been unravelled.

 

I think I'll be buying into gold and silver heavily on the next NY trading pullback. Newsflow is so bearish that this commodity correction could be one of the shortest in this bull market's history.

 

PS - Looks like the dollar's emergency retro boosters have failed. Heading back towards Earth at top speed and on fire. Just checked the back - no parachutes!

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