Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Record Gold Hoard Spurs Bullish Bets

 

Almost $12 trillion was wiped off the value of global equities since May on mounting concern about slower global growth, driving investors to what are perceived as the safest assets. Yields on Treasuries fell to a near-record low and gold is heading for an 11th consecutive annual gain. Bullion beat every other member of the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities this year except for gasoil.

 

“There’s absolutely no doubt that people are still worried,” said Carole Ferguson, an analyst at Fairfax IS in London. “The market’s being constantly confronted with the flow of bad news. Gold’s still an asset that people will look at.”

 

Bullion rose 19 percent to $1,688.50 an ounce this year on the Comex exchange in New York, and reached a record $1,923.70 in September. The S&P GSCI gained 0.7 percent and the MSCI All- Country World Index of equities retreated 16 percent. Treasuries returned 9.7 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

 

Gold investment jumped 33 percent to 468.1 tons in the third quarter from a year earlier as bar and coin demand in Europe more than doubled to the most since the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the London-based World Gold Council.

 

Gold survey results: Bullish: 18 Bearish: 6 Hold: 2

Copper survey results: Bullish: 7 Bearish: 10 Hold: 4

Corn survey results: Bullish: 8 Bearish: 11 Hold: 1

Soybean survey results: Bullish: 10 Bearish: 9 Hold: 1

Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 3 Bearish: 7 Hold: 1

White sugar survey results: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 8 Hold: 1

White sugar premium results: Widen: 2 Narrow: 6 Neutral: 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't know whether to put this in the 'coming war' thread or here!

 

Chavez repatriates Venezuela's foreign gold reserves

Venezuela has received its first shipment of gold bars, after President Hugo Chavez ordered the repatriation of 85% of the country's bullion reserves.

 

The gold was unloaded from a plane and taken under heavy guard to the Central Bank in the capital, Caracas.

 

President Chavez has explained the move as an act of sovereignty that will protect Venezuela's reserves from global economic turbulence.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-15900885

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is my favorite Ker chart from November 2009.

He also seems to be totally immune against advice or learning from mistakes. Fundamentals wouldn't throw him off his trajectory either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is my favorite Ker chart from November 2009.

 

4083004084_3bcd86e258_z.jpg

 

:lol: Well he nearly got it right! :lol:

 

I think that he could prove very useful as a counter indicator, he certainly got the time right of the next big rise in gold, albeit he got the direction 180 degrees wrong. It is also a very interesting look at the human mindset. Once people get something in their head, they will very rarely change their mind. I am no great fan of Keynes, but he did ask "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" I bet good old Wan will be continually calling the gold top for the next decade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the problem with Pretcherites, they never accept they're wrong, it's just they're not right yet!

 

He also seems to be totally immune against advice or learning from mistakes. Fundamentals wouldn't throw him off his trajectory either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He already is... :D One of the best quotes I've heard since this crisis began, is that "Even Keynes wouldn't be a Keynesian now..."

 

I think that he could prove very useful as a counter indicator, he certainly got the time right of the next big rise in gold, albeit he got the direction 180 degrees wrong. It is also a very interesting look at the human mindset. Once people get something in their head, they will very rarely change their mind. I am no great fan of Keynes, but he did ask "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" I bet good old Wan will be continually calling the gold top for the next decade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html

 

OK I get the feeling thy have decided to let the euro go. Why else would they let Italian yields get as ludicrous as 6.7% for three months.

 

So I think there is going to be chaos soon. What's the consensus to the direction that pm's will take? Will the chaos cause them to soar as safe havens or will they be sold down for liquidity in a deflationary vortex only to go vertical in the ensuing printing frenzy? I have quite a chunk of fiat that I have just come into and want to convert to physical.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have quite a chunk of fiat that I have just come into and want to convert to physical.

Me too! - what to do? My core position is solid. Physical all the way, but can one have enough??

I'd estimate I have come into funds worth abut 10% of my PM position - 5 figures so still a large sum for me.

 

Apart from some mining shares and collectibles (paintings, coins, jewellery), is there anywhere else to hide?

One thought is some blue chip dividend-payers. They should hold their value but I'd only buy after a steep drop from here. We may see that if there is a crunch.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think they're too scared to let it go, the consequences are significant, to say the least. I keep hearing rumors that the ECB will lend money to the IMF, who will in turn lend to the PIIGS, which gets around the legality of the issue. I also suspect the FED would step in if absolutely required.

 

I think the reality of whether gold goes up or down initially is anyone's guess, it could cut either way in the short term, however medium to long term, there's nothing else I'd rather own. In my meager opinion, time is now too short to worry about buying at the absolute best price, it's now a question of how many ounces do you own.

 

Good article BTW.

 

http://www.telegraph...fice-warns.html

 

OK I get the feeling thy have decided to let the euro go. Why else would they let Italian yields get as ludicrous as 6.7% for three months.

 

So I think there is going to be chaos soon. What's the consensus to the direction that pm's will take? Will the chaos cause them to soar as safe havens or will they be sold down for liquidity in a deflationary vortex only to go vertical in the ensuing printing frenzy? I have quite a chunk of fiat that I have just come into and want to convert to physical.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/8917077/Prepare-for-riots-in-euro-collapse-Foreign-Office-warns.html

 

OK I get the feeling thy have decided to let the euro go. Why else would they let Italian yields get as ludicrous as 6.7% for three months.

 

So I think there is going to be chaos soon. What's the consensus to the direction that pm's will take? Will the chaos cause them to soar as safe havens or will they be sold down for liquidity in a deflationary vortex only to go vertical in the ensuing printing frenzy? I have quite a chunk of fiat that I have just come into and want to convert to physical.

 

I am doing a little bit of travelling into Europe for work these days, a couple of days at a time here and there. Maybe now is the time to politely decline such callings, and try to stay close to home/loved ones/provisions/stash ? :unsure:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You're right and I'm glad I took the advice of our gold elders (golden oldies?) when the crisis first hit.

 

... it's now a question of how many ounces do you hold. (In your hands).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There was a bloke at work today talking about gold. He's not someone who talks about finances economics etc. very much. One of his friends was selling some coins that he had bought a few years ago. The bloke seemed dumbfounded about how much the value of the coins had increased. He was telling everyone that people are buying gold because of the uncertainties about the banking system.

 

This is the first time I have encountered someone who is not normally interested in 'things financial' talking about gold in such a way. He sounded a bit like me five years ago.

 

This, to me, was a clear sign that at least a small part of the general public are now beginning to grasp the notion of the role of gold in the economic mess that that the world is in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anecdotal: European relatives, who have some already, seem to be wanting to get more asap.

 

Haha, ditto. I've maintained a disciplined silence on my financial beliefs (like it's some kind of weird religion lol) since 2007, when it was clear the level of delusion was so absolute that I just couldn't win by trying to warn people. Ever since then I've just paitiently watched and chuckled at the complete surprise of those around me as it all played out.

 

This year has seen a noticable increase in the number of people coming to me for 'my take on the situation' - this month, however, the numbers have gone through the roof. All are talking about inflation, gold, house prices, debt (although, critically, not deficits) and what they should do next.

 

This may sound harsh, but with most I stay silent - their continued ignorance is necessary for my 'Personality Indicator' to keep working. Back in 2007 I selected the opinion and behaviour of certain individuals as a measure of how far along we've come on the bubble lifecycle for various assets. It nailed the recent gold selloff, much to my delight - and I just need two more people to 'turn' and we'll be into the enthusiasm phase!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Haha, ditto. I've maintained a disciplined silence on my financial beliefs (like it's some kind of weird religion lol) since 2007, when it was clear the level of delusion was so absolute that I just couldn't win by trying to warn people. Ever since then I've just paitiently watched and chuckled at the complete surprise of those around me as it all played out.

 

This year has seen a noticable increase in the number of people coming to me for 'my take on the situation' - this month, however, the numbers have gone through the roof. All are talking about inflation, gold, house prices, debt (although, critically, not deficits) and what they should do next.

 

This may sound harsh, but with most I stay silent - their continued ignorance is necessary for my 'Personality Indicator' to keep working. Back in 2007 I selected the opinion and behaviour of certain individuals as a measure of how far along we've come on the bubble lifecycle for various assets. It nailed the recent gold selloff, much to my delight - and I just need two more people to 'turn' and we'll be into the enthusiasm phase!

 

Interesting, please do share your 'indicators' as we progress :)

 

I had an interesting signal of my own during the recent short-covering spike to $1920. A gambling spread-bettor type in the office was massively leveraged long gold. He was the only person I've met in real life who had any interest in gold, and his way to play it was massive leverage paper trading.

 

In the violent correction that ensued I have no doubt he lost his entire position and possibly his account. Unfortunately he moved to one of our overseas offices during the process so I couldn't get a handle on the situation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you guys think it is a good idea to buy more gold even at current prices? I was thinking on adding a few more sovereigns from CoinInvest.

 

FWIW, if your buying in sterling for a long term hold, then I think your downside risk is minimal. The GBP has held it's value remarkably well, gold is about 10% off it's highs and sovereigns have enduring appeal.

 

Yesterday, I took delivery of a 2012 Proof Gold Sovereign from the Royal Mint. :) I normally buy bullion sovereigns, but I can't resist the one-offs, now have proof 1989, 2002, 2005 and 2012 sovereigns.

 

http://www.royalmint.com/Annex/Sovereign/The-2012-Gold-Sovereign.aspx?src=hm_SmallBanner_2012Sovereign?promcode=W12G&gclid=CKro8PiX4awCFQUhtAodlw31ow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW, if your buying in sterling for a long term hold, then I think your downside risk is minimal. The GBP has held it's value remarkably well, gold is about 10% off it's highs and sovereigns have enduring appeal.

 

Yesterday, I took delivery of a 2012 Proof Gold Sovereign from the Royal Mint. :) I normally buy bullion sovereigns, but I can't resist the one-offs, now have proof 1989, 2002, 2005 and 2012 sovereigns.

 

http://www.royalmint...CFQEMfAodmFeEhw

 

Thanks for the reply.

 

Medium term more than long term hopefully as my wife wants to buy a house. I understand the panics we might go over in the next few weeks and month so I just want to be sure that we are well covered.

 

Those limited editions look nice buy they do cost a FORTUNE! :)

 

I am buying in Sterling (I live in the UK). Do you think Half Sovereigns are worth it? I haven't got any.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know some of you do not read DrB's Diary.

 

Here are some charts that may help to generate some trading ideas

CHEAP PLATINUM ? -

It certainly looks cheap versus GLD and SLV ... update

 

platvsgldslv.gif

 

Here's the Ratio : Platinum-to-Gold

 

plattogold.png

 

And a less commonly observed Ratio : Platinum-to-CRB

 

97089047.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the reply.

 

Medium term more than long term hopefully as my wife wants to buy a house. I understand the panics we might go over in the next few weeks and month so I just want to be sure that we are well covered.

 

Those limited editions look nice buy they do cost a FORTUNE! :)

 

I am buying in Sterling (I live in the UK). Do you think Half Sovereigns are worth it? I haven't got any.

 

I prefer full sovereigns or 1 oz coins, I guess fractionals, 1/4 and 1/2 sovereigns may be easier to sell when gold reaches say $3-4000 oz, but I don't think this is a medium term concern. Buy whatever gives you the most bang for your buck IMO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I prefer full sovereigns or 1 oz coins, I guess fractionals, 1/4 and 1/2 sovereigns may be easier to sell when gold reaches say $3-4000 oz, but I don't think this is a medium term concern. Buy whatever gives you the most bang for your buck IMO.

 

Oh well bought some 1/2 in the end as I didn't have any and thought they would be more manageable.

 

Hopefully I will be able to get some more before the end of the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×