GOLD

[halight]

Iv never been into gold. I have a few gold coins well i have have six. Iv had them for 8-9 years. But iv been reading quite a lot on gold the last few months. So a few weeks ago i set up a bullion vault account. I brourt £200 worth of gold then. Another £200 last week and today when i got in from work and came across today drop iv brourt another £500 worth.

 

Now why is a person like me with my L plates as far as investing goes buying Gold? Well im worried! I belive that the only way we in the west can pay all the Gov and private debt off, is to inflate our way out of it. The CBs are worried about letting the IF Monster out of the cage. They dont wont the lash back from the public of 18% RPI the man in the street is a lot more knowing now than in the 70s-80s but they will still see 18% RPI as only hurting them not wearing there debt down. The UK and USA are a lot ok with priting money than teh ECB but i think the ECB will give in and di there own QE i think we might even see a euro bond within the next 5 years. Germany will let the ECB do both in the end.

The westen CBs will let Inflashion run at about 4-6% for a good few years to help with the debt. The Uk and USA will do more QE.

 

Low growth, low IRs and more QE

 

Iv read somewere that chinas CB is buying gold and that Chinas Gov are telling the public to put money in Gold. If it good enough for them, then its good enough for me.

 

Do they know something that we dont? Iv been thinking the last few weeks. Back in 2009 there was talk and roumor about replaceing the USA Dollor with a basket of cuurenys (anyone remember this)

Well maybe china is thinking of pushing for somthing like a world dollor for the price of oil and stuff and maybe that it will be backed by gold????

 

Or how about them pushing for all money to be backed by 50% gold. I think the Uk pound was back by gold at about 20% If they do all money backed by 50% gold then he with the most gold wins!

 

Just me thinking thats all

 

Ill shut up now!

 

Thanks for reading

[ecoface]

Has anyone contemplated the concept that the recent peak was the equivalent of the mid 1970s peak of 800 after which there was an 18 month correction, before the final 4.5 year explosion?

 

If there is massive deleveraging and deflation in 2012 and 2013 which looks a real possibility, then gold will really have to prove itself.

 

For those of a view that history often repeats itself, gold in late 1974 was at 800 (inflation adj) and dropped to around 380. A similar repeat pattern now would result in gold dropping from 1925 to 950.

 

It took 2 years for the rapid rise from 350 to 800, then 2 years to go back to 380.

 

This current cycle from late 2009 (at late 900s) to Autumn 2011 (also 2 years), could forseeably be mirrored by the same drop over the same duration, so a mid cycle bottom in Autumn 2013.

 

Such a correction would flush out almost all investors. It would also mirror the classic bear trap stage of the Awareness Phase of the anatomy of a bubble. (see the graphic yourself as can't pin it).

 

How many of you are placed to handle a fall for 18-24 months down to $950, as that is one pattern that is reasonably feasible.

 

This kind of thinking doesn't threaten the long term bull position. It kind of makes sense if one views that this depression will take another 4-5 years post 2013. By 2018 we could see gold at over $4300 (i.e. using inflation adjusted figures the POG went from 800 to 1800 = 2.25x).

 

If there is one thing I have learnt from the last 3-4 years of crisis, it is that the change occurs very much more slowly than previous recessions. The gold bugs are very impatient, and the powers that be, far more resilient to radical change. The hyper-inflation arising from the QEs should only feed in, once we have had the second and more devastating dip of this depression.

 

So, what do you good folk reckon of the mid 70s mid cycle argument?

(I do recognise that this era is worse than the 70s, but place that to one side.)

[50sQuiff]

Has anyone contemplated the concept that the recent peak was the equivalent of the mid 1970s peak of 800 after which there was an 18 month correction, before the final 4.5 year explosion?

 

If there is massive deleveraging and deflation in 2012 and 2013 which looks a real possibility, then gold will really have to prove itself.

 

For those of a view that history often repeats itself, gold in late 1974 was at 800 (inflation adj) and dropped to around 380. A similar repeat pattern now would result in gold dropping from 1925 to 950.

 

It took 2 years for the rapid rise from 350 to 800, then 2 years to go back to 380.

 

This current cycle from late 2009 (at late 900s) to Autumn 2011 (also 2 years), could forseeably be mirrored by the same drop over the same duration, so a mid cycle bottom in Autumn 2013.

 

Such a correction would flush out almost all investors. It would also mirror the classic bear trap stage of the Awareness Phase of the anatomy of a bubble. (see the graphic yourself as can't pin it).

 

How many of you are placed to handle a fall for 18-24 months down to $950, as that is one pattern that is reasonably feasible.

 

This kind of thinking doesn't threaten the long term bull position. It kind of makes sense if one views that this depression will take another 4-5 years post 2013. By 2018 we could see gold at over $4300 (i.e. using inflation adjusted figures the POG went from 800 to 1800 = 2.25x).

 

If there is one thing I have learnt from the last 3-4 years of crisis, it is that the change occurs very much more slowly than previous recessions. The gold bugs are very impatient, and the powers that be, far more resilient to radical change. The hyper-inflation arising from the QEs should only feed in, once we have had the second and more devastating dip of this depression.

 

So, what do you good folk reckon of the mid 70s mid cycle argument?

(I do recognise that this era is worse than the 70s, but place that to one side.)

 

You could be right I guess. But the mid 70s correction involved real interest rates (Fed Funds/3-month T-bill) going to 0, back when they had a real CPI.

[Manual labourer]

Nothing is certain.

There's a risk that rents will fall, and tenants will be unable to pay...

If the UK heads into a deflationary collapse in the UK economy and jobs.

 

I sure if I visited Paris, that there are loads of 17th 18th century beautiful buildings around the place! So the other Scottish genius John Law hyperinflated France but the buildings survived and people moved on and later prospered!

 

I don't buy into this Mad MAX SYSTEM COLLAPSE BS, other than a huge multi continent natural disaster or a world wide Nuclear war!

 

Here in the UK and the rest of the western world we are heading into a short lived nasty period of deflation/high unemployment where the Dollar/Gold will be king, followed by an even worse period of printed hyper inflation when Gold will be the sole king!

 

Regards

 

ML

[50sQuiff]

I sure if I visited Paris, that there are loads of 17th 18th century beautiful buildings around the place! So the other Scottish genius John Law hyperinflated France but the buildings survived and people moved on and later prospered!

 

I don't buy into this Mad MAX SYSTEM COLLAPSE BS, other than a huge multi continent natural disaster or a world wide Nuclear war!

 

Here in the UK and the rest of the western world we are heading into a short lived nasty period of deflation/high unemployment where the Dollar/Gold will be king, followed by an even worse period of printed hyper inflation when Gold will be the sole king!

 

Regards

 

ML

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haussmann's_renovation_of_Paris

[Manual labourer]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haussmann's_renovation_of_Paris

 

They certainly moved on and prospered! I am sure Cameron wishes it was a barren field landscape! :lol:

 

Regards

 

ML

[Kapouillax]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haussmann's_renovation_of_Paris

 

I lived in one of those during all my childhood/young adulthood. 4m (okay, 3.7m) high ceilings! Certainly felt better than the average British new build

[Manual labourer]

I lived in one of those during all my childhood/young adulthood. 4m (okay, 3.7m) high ceilings! Certainly felt better than the average British new build

 

Cool!

[50sQuiff]

They certainly moved on and prospered! I am sure Cameron wishes it was a barren field landscape! :lol:

 

Regards

 

ML

 

I think you're right, the fine old Regency buildings of London and other cities will still be here regardless of what happens. Even the idiot politicians couldn't destroy them all over the last 50 years. But the new build BTL flats over in the East of London might crumble and go to zero though. They look like they're crumbling now and they've barely been up 10 minutes. I bet they don't have 4m Parisian ceilings either

[bob monkhouse]

Ive been away for a month guys, what gives? I became a little weary with work stresses and expenditure problems...

 

So is this a mass delevaraging//margin call? Whats behind Gold dropping....and more importnatly what do we think of share prices...im still heavily in BP and a few others...

[Manual labourer]

I think you're right, the fine old Regency buildings of London and other cities will still be here regardless of what happens. Even the idiot politicians couldn't destroy them all over the last 50 years. But the new build BTL flats over in the East of London might crumble and go to zero though. They look like they're crumbling now and they've barely been up 10 minutes. I bet they don't have 4m Parisian ceilings either

 

 

Nah I can't see it they will eventually crank the printing press up to full speed, hyperinflate everything, debt will never get paid off, slate wiped clean!

 

Sorry chaps we can't pay you in yuan, but we can give you a suitcase packed with this old 50 billion pound notes!!!!!!!!!! Sorry Sultan we can't pay our debts and we have used your oil up so you can't have it back ! I tell you what lets start again and we will settle up on delivery, unless you want to lend us a few quid again!

 

Rgds

 

ML

[romans holiday]

 

Never was that enthusiastic about the large spike up to 1900 as large spikes can lead to large corrections. If the correction is "equal and opposite" to the spike, then the price will dip a little below the 50 week moving average, which it's sitting on now. The next spike, perhaps mid next year, is likely to go well through 2000.

[G0ldfinger]

Weeeheee!

 

Is it time to back up the truck again?

[G0ldfinger]

4m (okay, 3.7m) high ceilings! Certainly felt better than the average British new build

That's how we live at the moment. Gives you room to think.

[romans holiday]

Weeeheee!

 

Is it time to back up the truck again?

Would be for first time buyers I guess.

[Manual labourer]

Just under halfway into this, BF talks about how "official estimates" of how much Gold is in existence are wrong. He says the actual amount may be 9-10 times as much (!)

 

If he is right, and the Illuminati hold much of the Gold, then maybe the Gold bugs are being "played" by some well-known Gold gurus, who are doing their best to create buyers for Illuminati Gold when (at some future day) they choose to unload.

 

Worst of all might be a Gold-backed currency, so that these illuminati villains (if they exist, and if they hold vast amounts of gold) would be able to unload all their Gold at a high fixed price, and then convert it into cheap earning assets.

 

(I have expressed this point of view here before, and it has been ridiculed by some, but I think BF's comments and the lawsuit he has been reporting on, shows there may be something to my warnings.)

 

"Worst of all might be a Gold-backed currency,[/b] so that these illuminati villains (if they exist, and if they hold vast amounts of gold) would be able to unload all their Gold at a high fixed price, and then convert it into cheap earning assets."

 

Now you are slowly catching on DB, that's what all the BH gang have been telling you all along!!!!!!!

 

Sounds like a really good plan to me !!!! ;)

 

You better watchout, these Illuminati Might be on here watching us right now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

FREE TIP :- Watchout for the men in dark suits and sunglasses!

 

Regards

 

ML

[Manual labourer]

That's how we live at the moment. Gives you room to think.

 

Also room for a 3.6m Christmas tree!!!!!!!!!

[drbubb]

You better watchout, these Illuminati Might be on here watching us right now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

FREE TIP :- Watchout for the men in dark suits and sunglasses!

 

Regards, ML

Nope.

They are too busy selling you bank notes, pharmaceuticals, and pressing your children into their wars.

 

I strongly recommend that you sell an ounce of Silver, and buy yourself a video called THRIVE:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15644

 

Then the scales may fall from your eyes, and you will better understand the realities of this world,

and how the elites play their games to fleece you. Piling into Gold, and then getting others to do

the same, is a great way for them to win. Then they will have plenty of friendly Gold Bugs also

calling for Gold-backing of a new global currency. Then who wins? The biggest winner would be the

one holding the most Gold.

 

Where do you think the Gold confiscated by the USA in the 1930's is right now?

I don't think it is in Fort Knox. Much of it may be in the vaults of the Federal Reserve Banks.

And don't forget the Fed is a PRIVATE BANK owned by too big too fail banks. Do you really want these

banksters to be the biggest winners of the high-stakes poker game that is going on?

[Jake]

Been re-reading my Alf Fields..

 

Projected Future Price for Gold

 

If gold retraces the exact gain achieved during the explosive advance from $1478 to $1913, which occurred in just seven weeks, it will represent a decline of 22.8%. That is nicely within the above anticipated range of 21% to 26% for the current decline in gold.

 

There is a possibility that the spike drop to $1531 on 26 September marked the low point of the correction in gold. The midpoint of the correction from $1576 to $1478 is $1527, close to $1531. If $1531 was the low, it was a decline of 20%. This is slightly below expectations, but it still qualifies as one degree larger than 13%.

 

At the date of writing (7 Nov 2011), gold has recovered to $1767, which is a 61.8% retracement of the loss from $1913 to $1531 (-$382), a typical size for this type of recovery. That leaves open the possibility (40% probability?) that gold will have another dip to test the target areas mentioned. The higher the price goes above $1767, the greater the probability that the low was in at $1531.Once this correction has been completed, Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE will be underway. This should be the largest and strongest wave in the entire gold bull market.

 

The target for the Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE should be around $4,500 with only two 13% corrections on the way.

[Kapouillax]

That's how we live at the moment. Gives you room to think.

 

And store the bullions!

[d2thdr]

 

 

Just me thinking thats all

 

Ill shut up now!

 

Thanks for reading

 

Good points. You have given your reasons. Let me tell you what I think. Irrespective of whatever happens, the gold you buy will play some role in your life. So any gold you buy (ideally in personal possession) you will be better off than the sheeple who do not. Gold standard will never materialise, but your gold will find buyers irrespective.

[halight]

Good points. You have given your reasons. Let me tell you what I think. Irrespective of whatever happens, the gold you buy will play some role in your life. So any gold you buy (ideally in personal possession) you will be better off than the sheeple who do not. Gold standard will never materialise, but your gold will find buyers irrespective.

 

 

 

Iv just been reading youyr free gold link in your Sig, I found it very usefull. I shall be keping upto date with that blog weekley, looks good.

Is it your own blog?

[50sQuiff]

It's worth noting at this juncture that premiums on Sovs and Krugs have risen dramatically and stayed high. So using ballpark figures, this 11% smash in USD gold has only been about 5-6% for holders of coins who measure their stash in GBP.

 

True price will be expressed in the premiums and physical gold holders will stay the course, knowing that the real world exchange value of their bullion is not affected by the crashing gold derivatives system.

[halight]

Some videos on the price of Gold from Bloomberg,

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/82800424/

 

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/80290084/

[d2thdr]

Iv just been reading youyr free gold link in your Sig, I found it very usefull. I shall be keping upto date with that blog weekley, looks good.

Is it your own blog?

 

I wish I could write as well as FOFOA which is an acronym for Friend of Friend of Another.

 

Another was an anonymous poster who wrote here. Check it out.

 

FOFOA has just continued the gold trail taking us where not many currently alive western men have gone before.

 

Here is his latest FOFOA

 

The trail is long and winding but when you reach the summit the view is amazing and very clear.

 

Everyone knows where we have been, lets see where we are going.