Errol Posted December 15, 2011 Report Share Posted December 15, 2011 Bear in mind the current correction is not particularly large by gold standards - http://opinions.caduceusx.com/viewtopic.php?f=20&t=4983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 15, 2011 Report Share Posted December 15, 2011 Gold futures log chart This is gold futures covering 12 months shown within a linear regression trend channel, it's not drawn by me, it's calculated automatically. I've set the regression channel to show the median line, the outermost lines of the channel represent 3 standard deviations from the mean, and the ones inside are 2 standard deviations from the mean. Money Flow Index (MFI) is beneath the chart in dark grey. MFI recently formed a low on 29th September. The first and second time this indicator bottomed, it marked some form of low in gold. (Blue vertical dashed lines) Interestingly, you can also see that the price level gold was at, when MFI was at a low, also marked a key support level in gold, with gold trading back down to the same price level later on, then rallying further. (Horizontal blue lines). What I also find quite interesting is that, on the 2nd and 3rd occasions when the MFI was at a low, the lower 3rd standard deviation line was at the exact price level where MFI made a low previously. (Grey dots show the intersection between the 3rd standard deviation line and previous MFI low gold price) That may just be a co-incidence and/or confirmation of the strength of the trend. It seems unlikely but if that relationship were to continue, then gold would rally somewhat from here, before trading down to $1575 by 8th December 2011. I posted this back in early October as a potential scenario for gold, surprisingly it's been pretty much bang on, gold rallied up to $1800 then sold off back down, hitting $1565 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted December 15, 2011 Report Share Posted December 15, 2011 Gold downgraded to junk: Gold Sheds 'Can't Lose' Status: Now, No One Wants It “Long gold has been a winning trade for years. We expect the selloff in gold to gain momentum into 2012. Traders are finding better hedges, better safe havens, and better speculative commodity plays than long gold.” “When an asset is thought to work in any market, that is the surest sign of a bubble,”“I believe we will hear about massive central bank selling to put currency in markets.” The flagship fund run by Paulson, who’s received more accolades than anyone for profiting from the housing bust, is down more than 40 percent for 2011 at last count. With the recent drop in gold, it’s likely down even more, if he isn’t selling. Unlike a stock, there are no earnings behind the metal. It’s only worth as much as what the next guy will pay for it. “Bull markets climb a wall of worry,” “These sharp drops shake out the speculators and keep other would-be buyers on the sidelines. Once the weak longs are cleared out, the trip to $2,000 and beyond will resume unencumbered by excess baggage.” http://www.cnbc.com/id/45684174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted December 15, 2011 Report Share Posted December 15, 2011 @PositiveDeviant -- Did you trade it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 15, 2011 Report Share Posted December 15, 2011 @PositiveDeviant -- Did you trade it ? Well I established a position in gold on 5th October, (having previously owned silver) and also positions in GDXJ and GDX some days later, however I jettisoned the GDX and GDXJ on 9th November as I had a sell signal for those at that point. All this goes on my blog. I bought gold earlier today I exited my GDX, GDXJ, and UXG today because of; A sell signal triggered on GDX on the daily timeframe chart, (this has historically been reliable for me). I had intended to keep them for quite a bit longer......... I still have the gold, as a hedge for dollars in trading accounts. With the ratio I have between the two it's balancing out quite well right now. ( Dollars to Gold ratio of 3.2 : 1 ) Hindsight shows the sale of my gold equities came at the right moment; GDXJ with 9th November marked; Hindsight also proves the correct decision was not simply to sell, but to reverse those equity positions and go short... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted December 15, 2011 Report Share Posted December 15, 2011 15 Brilliant Insights From Hedge Fund Superstar Kyle Bass On why he owns so much gold... "When I talked to the head of deliveries at COMEX NYMEX, I was like, 'What if 4% of the people want deliveries?' He said, 'Oh Kyle, that never happens. We rarely ever get a 1% delivery.' And I asked, 'Well what if it does happen?' And he said,'Price will solve everything' And I said, 'Thanks, give me the gold.'" http://www.businessinsider.com/americatalyst-kyle-bass-2011-12#on-why-he-owns-so-much-gold-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted December 15, 2011 Report Share Posted December 15, 2011 Well played. Make sure you invest the profits into physical gold though - measure wealth in ounces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted December 15, 2011 Report Share Posted December 15, 2011 Gold Price Free Fall 15 December 2011 http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_price_121520111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted December 15, 2011 Report Share Posted December 15, 2011 I posted this back in early October as a potential scenario for gold, surprisingly it's been pretty much bang on, gold rallied up to $1800 then sold off back down, hitting $1565 yesterday. Good to see some realistic calls being made on gold. It makes the case for owning gold more credible for those thinking of buying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 ...The midpoint of the correction from $1576 to $1478 is $1527, close to $1531. If $1531 was the low, it was a decline of 20%. This is slightly below expectations, but it still qualifies as one degree larger than 13%. At the date of writing (7 Nov 2011), gold has recovered to $1767, which is a 61.8% retracement of the loss from $1913 to $1531 (-$382), a typical size for this type of recovery. That leaves open the possibility (40% probability?) that gold will have another dip to test the target areas mentioned. The higher the price goes above $1767, the greater the probability that the low was in at $1531.Once this correction has been completed, Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE will be underway. This should be the largest and strongest wave in the entire gold bull market. The target for the Intermediate Wave III of Major THREE should be around $4,500 with only two 13% corrections on the way. That fits in reasonably well with my own thinking. I will just post two charts which target GLD-$150/$152 1) 2) / update to the above chart / The support near GLD-$151 could be broken, and today/Friday (with its light volume) would be a typical sort of day where that might happen. So if Gold can hold GLD-$150 with light volume today and Monday, then that would be an encouraging sign that an important low may be put in place here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 The Doctor is going Gold-crazy today. I am backing up the truck here, friends. Valuing the GLD Options and Gold etfs at face, I have bought over $300,000 of Gold today. (And I am not done.) Note that I have bought at something like $320 below Gold's high, and also below Jim Sinclair's $1650 - very near to $1600. I have plenty of firepower still left, and plan to buy more if Gold breaks the support near 144d Are you planning on refueling soon Bubb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 Are you planning on refueling soon Bubb? Indeed. I sold about half of those Gold positions in the rally after that October low, and have boughtback during the last two days. I am using: + GLD and HK's version of it + Calls on GLD and UGL (2x Gold), Calls on SLV and AGQ (2x Silver) and some calls on KGC. I hit near the lows (so far) with some of the trades, and was a little early on others. Still, I have only invested about half of what I plan to, and so if it breaks support at GLD-$150< i will still have some powder available. I do think there is maybe a 30-40% chance that $150-support will be broken, which is why I have not posted the truck image (yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 Will be deploying updwards of $60,000 into physical bullion in the near future - http://www.dassafe.com/ will be expecting another shipment for my anonymous safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 Gold, silver fizzle out on global meltdown MUMBAI, December 16, 2011 http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article2718245.ece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsr Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 Indeed. I sold about half of those Gold positions in the rally after that October low, and have boughtback during the last two days. I am using: + GLD and HK's version of it + Calls on GLD and UGL (2x Gold), Calls on SLV and AGQ (2x Silver) and some calls on KGC. I hit near the lows (so far) with some of the trades, and was a little early on others. Still, I have only invested about half of what I plan to, and so if it breaks support at GLD-$150< i will still have some powder available. I do think there is maybe a 30-40% chance that $150-support will be broken, which is why I have not posted the truck image (yet) I do not know your holding period, but I am almost certain gold will go much lower, $1400's. Key supports have been smashed, so have MA's. A rally upto 1620, but no higher than 1680 is likely, but its down hard from there. We are nearly knocking at final support, I don't think I have seen a similazr pattern which has held. But let's not forget, that a parabolic move tends to be preceeded by a serious drop to flush out all bears. This is the one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huntergatherer Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 Will be deploying updwards of $60,000 into physical bullion in the near future - http://www.dassafe.com/ will be expecting another shipment for my anonymous safe. Will your shipment to das safe be chartered by das boot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted December 16, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 Gold, silver fizzle out on global meltdown ... 'cause the number one thing to do in a global financial meltdown is to throw away your gold. :lol: I have to say, the central banksters and bullion bank banksters have done a great job in having 99% of the populace voluntarily stick their heads up their butts. It's just 2008 and 2006 all over again. I guess we have to go through this idiocy every 2-3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted December 16, 2011 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/12/16/in-the-news-today-1057/ Jim Sinclair’s Commentary Swaps are in action. Liquidity is spread thick while financial leaders talk out the other side of their mouth. The Spanish bond offering yesterday was oversubscribed. This is totally counter intuitive so guess who financed the buyers. Yes, you are right. The US Federal Reserve via last week’s swaps. It is amazing how many of you are overwhelmed by MOPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjohnp Posted December 16, 2011 Report Share Posted December 16, 2011 Will be deploying updwards of $60,000 into physical bullion ... I love this sort of talk, and I feel very grown-up to be mixing with such rich people. Me, I just keep buying a hundred here and a hundred there. But it makes me happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 17, 2011 Report Share Posted December 17, 2011 Will be deploying updwards of $60,000 into physical bullion in the near future - http://www.dassafe.com/ will be expecting another shipment for my anonymous safe. During a hyperinflation, the "Dassafe" security guard may struggle somewhat to fend off the people armed with guns with his baton. Needless to say, those who locked away some of their wealth in an "anonymous" safe with a large sign outside the building saying DASSAFE may prove to regret it later on. If I were looking to pay someone else to look after it I would be looking for an anonymous safe along with an anonymous safe company. It never ceases to amaze me that people will do something sensible to protect their wealth but broadcast the location of it on a public forum. If you don't hold it, you don't own it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 17, 2011 Report Share Posted December 17, 2011 It never ceases to amaze me that people will do something sensible to protect their wealth but broadcast the location of it on a public forum. If you don't hold it, you don't own it. And even if you hold it, you'd better have some support from your neighbors, in case someone with a weapon wants to take away whatever you may have. Das Safe : Dat's not so safe, in a time of social chaos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted December 17, 2011 Report Share Posted December 17, 2011 During a hyperinflation, the "Dassafe" security guard may struggle somewhat to fend off the people armed with guns with his baton. Needless to say, those who locked away some of their wealth in an "anonymous" safe with a large sign outside the building saying DASSAFE may prove to regret it later on. If I were looking to pay someone else to look after it I would be looking for an anonymous safe along with an anonymous safe company. It never ceases to amaze me that people will do something sensible to protect their wealth but broadcast the location of it on a public forum. If you don't hold it, you don't own it. It's not all there. Best to keep some off shore (as CGNAO says). Keeps all options open by having multiple stores of bullion in different sections of the globe. That way if I ever need to leave my current residence quickly I can fly to wherever I have a store and still be 'ok'. Places like Hong Kong, Switzerland, South America etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted December 17, 2011 Report Share Posted December 17, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 17, 2011 Report Share Posted December 17, 2011 Or... $0. What if there is far more gold than you can imagine in the world? What would the price be then? And how would you see the "mission" of JS ? I have a very hard time crediting the rumors, but there are stories like that being heard now on the web, and they are triggering serious matters like death threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Errol Posted December 17, 2011 Report Share Posted December 17, 2011 It's the amount of fiat paper in the world that I'm worried about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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