GOLD

[d2thdr]

 

Gold has an important role in preserving wealth IMHO. I own it now, and have owned it for years... and I buy on dips and sell some when I think it is overvalued. But we must not treat gold owning as a religion and/or build cults around gold hoarding.

 

Please clarify your mode of holding gold. Physical, ETF, Options, warrants, shares, exploration shares, mining shares, etc etc.

[romans holiday]

 

You don't have to be a genius to spot the potential top here.

(Yet I wonder: Where are the comments from the Gold purist gurus?)

 

....

Gold has an important role in preserving wealth IMHO. I own it now, and have owned it for years... and I buy on dips and sell some when I think it is overvalued. But we must not treat gold owning as a religion and/or build cults around gold hoarding.

It's an interesting chart that. The thing is there is another perfectly valid explanation to the "decoupling" seen between gold and commodities post 2008. That is that gold has been re-monetized by the market. It now acts more [potentially] as a pricing mechanism of commodities, a currency as opposed to a commodity. I don't think allowing for gold to behave as a currency [one amongst many] entails one to be a 'gold purist'. Don't 'gold purists' only allow gold as money?

 

Critical thought is important, but if it becomes reactionary one can be led into equal and opposite errors. You have to ask yourself why in that chart gold has risen so steadily in a long term trend against commodities. To just say it's 'over-valued' doesn't really offer an explanation.

[electroweak]

Bubb, I'm not getting involved in a personal slanging match vs JS, but I'd appreciate it if you laid off the crowing and disrespect every time there is one of these cliff-edge *INSIGNIFICANT* drops of $50-100. I keep JS on the radar, but I don't follow anyone but myself. I see debasement and corruption all around me.

 

I know we are in the endgame and I am not about to jump out of my lifeboat, or trade it. Gold could go to $500, I'd just buy more. From your point of view, I am a "lost cause", I'm afraid. However I know that I have the ultimate insurance, kept 'close to my chest'.

[Pixel8r]

Bubb, I'm not getting involved in a personal slanging match vs JS, but I'd appreciate it if you laid off the crowing and disrespect every time there is one of these cliff-edge *INSIGNIFICANT* drops of $50-100. I keep JS on the radar, but I don't follow anyone but myself. I see debasement and corruption all around me.

 

I know we are in the endgame and I am not about to jump out of my lifeboat, or trade it. Gold could go to $500, I'd just buy more. From your point of view, I am a "lost cause", I'm afraid. However I know that I have the ultimate insurance, kept 'close to my chest'.

The thing is they aren't INSIGNIFICANT if you are a paper trader on leverage, they actually probably nearly wipe you out.

[drbubb]

... explanation to the "decoupling" seen between gold and commodities post 2008.

That is that gold has been re-monetized by the market. It now acts more [potentially] as a pricing mechanism of commodities...

Yes.

That is what the Gold bulls are hoping for and praying for...

 

They want to see Gold's value be uplifted by its usage as a monetary marker. Like the US Dollar or the Euro, Gold can float at a level way beyond its intrinsic value, or its inflation-adjusted value. But for that to happen, Gold has to be a preferred "store of wealth" which is preferred ahead of Ag Commodities, Energy, or Houses.

 

It has happened for brief periods, but can it be sustained?

[drbubb]

The thing is they aren't INSIGNIFICANT if you are a paper trader on leverage, they actually probably nearly wipe you out.

Or you do very well, if you are on the right side of them, or use them to create and trigger buying windows.

[drbubb]

Bubb, I'm not getting involved in a personal slanging match vs JS, but I'd appreciate it if you laid off the crowing and disrespect every time there is one of these cliff-edge *INSIGNIFICANT* drops of $50-100. I keep JS on the radar, but I don't follow anyone but myself. I see debasement and corruption all around me.

 

I know we are in the endgame and I am not about to jump out of my lifeboat, or trade it. Gold could go to $500, I'd just buy more. From your point of view, I am a "lost cause", I'm afraid. However I know that I have the ultimate insurance, kept 'close to my chest'.

Listen to today's interview of FBB, if you want to understand better my views on gold.

They may be refreshingly different from the crowd at GATA, or those who follow JS.

[Pixel8r]

Or you do very well, if you are on the right side of them, or use them to create and trigger buying windows.

I think the volatility in the metals is only going to increase massively as we go further into this. Most traders will get burnt unless they are extremely disciplined and I think it isn't something that people should attempt. Maybe you all win, maybe you will win big, but also maybe you will then lose it all and get really angry about it.

 

I prefer to concentrate on real things and not try to beat the banking bar stewards at their own rigged game. Good luck you will need it.

[drbubb]

I think the volatility in the metals is only going to increase massively as we go further into this. Most traders will get burnt unless they are extremely disciplined...

I think "investors" will need to be disciplined too.

Most Gold purists are not. They are complacent and believe they can sit on their gold holdings "no matter what." They do not use stops, and are determined to sit out any "correction" in the price.

 

You may be interested to hear Jonathan Davis' view on the Gold price. Maybe you can sit out the drop he is forecasting, but it may prove too painful for some long term gold holders.

 

I trade some, but not everyday and not every move. You can see my successful modus operandi on the old Beating B&H thread.

[pjohnp]

Anecdotally: I buy bits & pieces of gold at auction every month, and today was the first day for more than two years that I've been outbid on everything: bids on scrappable gold were all at least 15% above today's spot price. So whatever's been happening amongst the big boys, the demand from little people for physical gold is as high as ever. It feels odd, though, coming home empty-handed!

[Walktothewater]

I think "investors" will need to be disciplined too.

Most Gold purists are not. They are complacent and believe they can sit on their gold holdings "no matter what." They do not use stops, and are determined to sit out any "correction" in the price.

 

You may be interested to hear Jonathan Davis' view on the Gold price. Maybe you can sit out the drop he is forecasting, but it may prove too painful for some long term gold holders.

 

I trade some, but not everyday and not every move. You can see my successful modus operandi on the old Beating B&H thread.

 

Whoa hold your horses, you're lumping a lot of people in together there with some pretty strong sweeping statements...

 

In any case, Jonathan Davis' is a UK property bear with a spotty track record, Jim Sinclair is a gold bull with an excellent track record. And you're saying the formers opinions on gold price trumps the latters?

[carbon junkie]

You may be interested to hear Jonathan Davis' view on the Gold price. Maybe you can sit out the drop he is forecasting, but it may prove too painful for some long term gold holders.

Jonathan I sold my UK real estate in 2001 Davies, and now froth at the mouth everytime I discuss it on the telly coz its eatin me up inside.

 

Or The Jonathan Dvaies who said the DOW would go to 15,000 in 2008 just before it dived off a cliff.

 

Maybe the Jonathan Davies who predicted the DOW crash in November just before it raced away to 13,000.

 

This guy has been passing me his money for years as he's always on the other side of the trade from me.

 

He has got a certificate (indoctrinated establishment monkey) and he gets on the telly (they only put people on the telly if they don't know what they are talking about - I thought we all knew that by now. No seriously he goes on the telly as a financial/ property expert but missed the whole bull run I kid you not!!)

 

Anyway if you want me to take your money then follow the "expert from the telly".

 

I mean seriously Bubb, do some research.

 

MMmmm Sinclair or Davies NOT EVEN CLOSE.

[carbon junkie]

In any case, Jonathan Davis' is a UK property bear with a spotty track record, Jim Sinclair is a gold bull with an excellent track record. And you're saying the formers opinions on gold price trumps the latters?

Thats exactly what he seems to be saying!

 

Blinded by the hatred of one person can force you into the arms of any old tom dick or certificated commission loving paper pushing Financial Advisor. LOL

[halight]

TELLING THE NAKED TRUTH about Gold prices... from the Corn thread:

 

Certainly, Gold prices have run ahead of Agricultural commodity prices

 

DBA / PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (ETF) vs. GLD ... update : 5year

 

5 years

 

Ratio: GLD to DBA

 

You don't have to be a genius to spot the potential top here.

(Yet I wonder: Where are the comments from the Gold purist gurus?)

 

Gold did much better than just "retaining its purchasing power". in relation to Agricultural commodities. What can we realistically expect from Gold as an inflation hedge against rising food prices? Isn't a 160% outperformance (relative to Ag commodities) big enough to start wondering if the relative price rise is done - at least for the time being.

 

Having asked this, I know there are those out there who think that Gold will go on beating inflation, because it will benefit from "seigneurage" which would come from using gold as a currency. Many gold purists would like to keep the supply of gold tight, and convince a large number of people that gold is the only suitable currency. This way, they might "pin gold to the ceiling" by backing currencies with Gold at a time when the price is high. If the Gold price is fixed, then the purists holding gold, could then offload and take their profits. The main beneficiaries may not be small private investors, but rather shadowy institutions (like the Vatican bank and others) that have hoarded gold for years.

 

Gold has an important role in preserving wealth IMHO. I own it now, and have owned it for years... and I buy on dips and sell some when I think it is overvalued. But we must not treat gold owning as a religion and/or build cults around gold hoarding.

 

 

 

Iv not read the thred that this is taken from. Im also not one that claims to know anything. In fact i dont know a lot. But could that chart also say that corn is undervauled at the moment ? Surly its how you read a chart that tells you somthing. And that could be twisted in any way, any person wonted ?

 

Thats why im not 100% sure of charts. I quite often find that they tell me more than one thing,

[halight]

Bubb, I'm not getting involved in a personal slanging match vs JS, but I'd appreciate it if you laid off the crowing and disrespect every time there is one of these cliff-edge *INSIGNIFICANT* drops of $50-100. I keep JS on the radar, but I don't follow anyone but myself. I see debasement and corruption all around me.

 

I know we are in the endgame and I am not about to jump out of my lifeboat, or trade it. Gold could go to $500, I'd just buy more. From your point of view, I am a "lost cause", I'm afraid. However I know that I have the ultimate insurance, kept 'close to my chest'.

 

 

I feel this way too. Im not a Sinclair fan. But i do read some of his stuff. But i read allsorts of stuff inc books. I own some gold and silver before im worried about were we as a world are going, and not just in money tearms. I own stocks and i have cash. I also have a house, (with a loan) My Gold and silver are just a bit of safty. Everything else that i own could all become worth nothing. At the very least my Gold could be melted down and made into some nice rings to wear. But i dont belive that it ever be worth nothing. Someone will always pay somthing even is its only £1 it will be worth something.

[halight]

Listen to today's interview of FBB, if you want to understand better my views on gold.

They may be refreshingly different from the crowd at GATA, or those who follow JS.

 

 

I dont think Dom has pusted it up on itunes yet, As its not showing. I will download it as i always do and have a listen.

 

Are you going to start doing your own podcasts again ? I know that you have done a few in the past. Also what about your writeing ? do you have anymore planned for FS or anyone else ?

[halight]

Anecdotally: I buy bits & pieces of gold at auction every month, and today was the first day for more than two years that I've been outbid on everything: bids on scrappable gold were all at least 15% above today's spot price. So whatever's been happening amongst the big boys, the demand from little people for physical gold is as high as ever. It feels odd, though, coming home empty-handed!

 

 

Iv seen this on Ebay, Sometimes scrap gold not only sells for well about scrap price it also sells well above spot price. You have always had this with coins but to see it in broken earings and belly bars, aswell as broken rings show you that Gold has quite a following at the moment. Many people it seems too me and trying cash in on the ongoing up price by paying more now to get eben more at some other point. When your window cleaner tells you he has sold his mothers house and put it all in Gold. It may very well be the time to get out of gold and buy land, houses.

[romans holiday]

Yes.

That is what the Gold bulls are hoping for and praying for...

 

They want to see Gold's value be uplifted by its usage as a monetary marker. Like the US Dollar or the Euro, Gold can float at a level way beyond its intrinsic value, or its inflation-adjusted value. But for that to happen, Gold has to be a preferred "store of wealth" which is preferred ahead of Ag Commodities, Energy, or Houses.

 

It has happened for brief periods, but can it be sustained?

Well, as I said it was an alternative rational explanation. No hoping and praying involved.

 

I think you're still missing some very rational macro-economic points here:

 

1] If gold is starting to behave as a currency then it really does not make sense to talk of its 'intrinsic value'. A currency provides the monetary value of other things.

 

2] The 'system' needs to be re-capitalized. One way this can effectively be done is for gold to slowly rise as a pricing mechanism. Somehow the amount of debt outstanding has to be re-balanced against capital. If for some reason [most probably political] 'printing' can't do it, or then again debt is not then written off in mass, then another alternative is for gold to continue rising. Fact is, central banks hold gold because they consider it capital.

 

I repeat, these are rational economic points worthy of consideration and not greedy 'self-interested' ones.

[G0ldfinger]

The Volume says: IMPORTANT

Is that a GLD paper shuffler volume ( ), or rather something we should really take for important?

[G0ldfinger]

Today;s drop should be seen as a wake-up call, not something to shake off lightly.

So, you think we should (lightly) ignore FACTS like the one below?

 

Come on Bubb, based on FACTS (see below), all I can do is to TOTALLY IGNORE the little paper shuffling of two days ago. The leaning on Gold during NY opening times is so ridiculously blatant that it is astonishing to me that we need to have a discussion at all. As some on here know, I have my own data on this which is fully in line with the chart below.

 

And now you want the people who got their facts right to leave this forum?

 

Take down.

 

And, BTW, as Mr Gold himself has pointed out: the ECB prints up over $700B that day alone, and then the Bernank comes out and goes 'peep', and gold falls off $80 bucks. Are you kidding me?

[G0ldfinger]

OK, so what are Jim Sinclair's latest predictions for gold? Does he still think it's going parabolic in the next few years? Or has he settled down to predicting 20 odd % appreciation year on year?

His name is Jim Sinclair, and not Jim Holiday or Romans Sinclair, okay?

[drbubb]

Can we please have some THOUGHTFUL DEBATE on this topic within the new thread

 

Can there be a Right price for linking the Dollar to Gold? How would it be determined?

 

Gold as currency, or currencies linked to Gold at a high fixed rate is not what the Dr orders.

 

The main purpose this would serve would be to lock in huge profits for the Gold bulls. Probably many Gold purists think that would be a fair reward for criticising excessive government spending. I do not think that way. I would rather see gold as a currency trading alongside traditional currencies than see gold-back currencies. As a competing currency, gold would continue in its role as a canary-in-the-coakl mine providing a measure of confidence in the paper currencies. But I do not want to see institutions that may have quietly loaded up on Gold be given a risk-free exit at a high price.

 

Imagine how it would have been if the Dollar had been fixed to gold at $800 in 1980. Gold production would have stayed high for years, and we would have been swimming in gold as Central banks were forced to buy it under "gold-backing" provisions. Eventually all the gold selling would have overwhelmed Central banks, and the larger gold stocks might have forced the price below even $250 when the Gold back provisions where modified or cancelled.

 

Do you really want shadowy institutions and gold bugs to be given such a windfall as would be provide if the Dollar were linked to Gold at $3,000 or something?

 

I hasten to add that Gold is a very useful store of wealth, for all the traditional reasons stated by the Gold Bulls, but using it to back currencies is not going to be the right thing to do, unless they can get the initial fixed price right. That may not be as easy as some think, and certainly the right price is not $850 adjusted upwards for inflation since 1980.

[G0ldfinger]

There are any number of sites out there where you can find people who simply want to repeat the mantra from Sinclair and GATA, are they really interestiing? Do they really help you think more clearly about preserving wealth and what is really going on in the economy?

If we wouldn't have you as the paper bug and anti-gold bug par excellence, we would really have to hire someone to take up this role.

[drbubb]

So, you think we should (lightly) ignore FACTS like the one below?

, , ,

And, BTW, as Mr Gold himself has pointed out: the ECB prints up over $700B that day alone, and then the Bernank comes out and goes 'peep', and gold falls off $80 bucks. Are you kidding me?

Ever hear of SELL THE NEWS?

[G0ldfinger]

Ever hear of SELL THE NEWS?

Sure, sure. But what they sold was the Bernank's news, and not the ECB news.

 

Anyway, huge storm in the water glas for that little blip. Sinclair was right, is right, and will be right (on the price of gold), even if I don't agree with all that he says and can't make myself believe in Sai Baba.