GOLD

[romans holiday]

edit

[romans holiday]

The way I trade is: First, I form a big picture view. And then zoom in on a Daily or Intraday chart to place the actual Trade.

 

Here's the Weekly view, and I have featured the 76d.MA= 18wk, and 144d.MA= 30wk.MA ... update

 

 

What do you see here?

I am interested in two main things:

 

+ Where the 18wk. Crosses the 30wk. MA : to the Downside in Red, and to the upside in Blue.

 

+ Where 30wk MA "rolls over" and starts moving lower.

 

The first indicator has given three SELL signals, and we are on the Third one now. We are close to a BLUE "BUY" signal, but it has not yet been flashed. For that to happen, the GLD price needs to climb back over the 30wk=144d MA, and the 18wk=76d MA does too.

 

GLD-Weekly-Closeup-chart

 

Let's see if that will happen soon.

 

The 30wk.ma is now close to rolling over, which might signal a deeper correction. Methinks we have a critical week or two ahead of us.

? If you sold on the red and then bought on the blue, you'd be paying more than what you sold for. And if you sold on the latest red sell signal you'd have sold gold for 1500 odd.

 

Doesn't that, for trading purposes, then make them classic lagging indicators? The best sell indicator [if trading] has to be the spikes.

 

 

 

Edit: I think I see the confusion here. If you are trading to increase gold, and add to your longs on gold then those sell/ buy indicators wouldn't work.

 

Where the indicators would work is if one was already long gold and then sold. Or again, if one was not long gold and looking to buy. But here I'm confused again. Because in the first instance you'd be 'losing your position' [though taking a profit]. I assume in the second instance one is going long. Seems to me you're not so much trading gold here as looking for a good entry point.

[drbubb]

? If you sold on the red and then bought on the blue, you'd be paying more than what you sold for. And if you sold on the latest red sell signal you'd have sold gold for 1500 odd.

These are Confirmation indicators*, and are not meant to trigger trades.

I use different indicators for that.

 

You may recall, I gave a strong BUY indicator at the Turn of the Year when Gold was near $1550:

Gold Charts look Bullish as we start 2012 - started Jan. 2, 2012

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=15773

The New Year is starting well for holders of Precious Metals

Gold is back above the 252d-MA (near $1,575) suggesting the action at year-end was a false break.

 

I have circled in red two similar looking patterns in prices.

 

If the historical pattern continues to trace out, then Gold is headed higher in 2012.

 

Since then, I have taken some profits, selling into strength on the way up through $1700.

And I am now awaiting the next buying opportunity. Have I missed it?

Maybe. But I don't think so. I push above the 144d-MA might cause me to change my mind.

=== ===

 

*Perhaps I should have called then "Sell Confirmations", and "Buy Confirmation" above, rather than "Signals".

Sorry for the confusion.

[romans holiday]

 

Since then, I have taken some profits, selling into strength on the way up through $1700.

And I am now awaiting the next buying opportunity. Have I missed it?

Maybe. But I don't think so.

Ok, so you are short term trading gold while on the other hand looking to increase your longs [i do something similiar but on a longer frame and with silver.. though no need to increase my longs in gold]. Have I got that right?

 

When you say 'longs' I'm assuming that refers to B&H not just the entering of a trade right? Can you see how it gets confusing, and why I suggested having separate threads for trading and investing/ B&H?

[drbubb]

Ok, so you are short term trading gold while on the other hand looking to increase your longs [i do something similiar but on a longer frame and with silver]. Have I got that right?

 

When you say 'longs' I'm assuming that refers to B&H not just the entering of a trade right? Can you see how it gets confusing, and why I suggested having separate threads for trading and investing/ B&H?

Yes, you are right.

 

I have two trading pots for Gold:

One long term, and one shorter term, for trading.

 

I haven't been Net Short Gold for many, many years.

 

When I signal a "Buying Opportunity" as at the beginning of the year, the pure B&H guys might think of that as an Ideal Gold-Adding Opportunity. Do you see what I mean?

 

The Jury is still out, on what sort of Correction we are in:

 

[romans holiday]

When I signal a "Buying Opportunity" as at the beginning of the year, the pure B&H guys might think of that as an Ideal Gold-Adding Opportunity. Do you see what I mean?

Yep, gotcha.

 

I think the pure B&H established their core position years ago, and not looking to buy more.... or shouldn't be. though that kind of information is looked for by those thinking about a good entry point.

 

Still think you need separate threads between trading gold and investing in it. The perspectives are quite different which leads to confusion.

 

 

Edit. The use of the linear chart above is misleading. It makes this correction resemble '08 instead of '06, which it resembles a lot more closely.... so far.

[drbubb]

Still think you need separate threads between trading gold and investing in it.

The perspectives are quite different which leads to confusion.

I hear you, but I don't really see why.

 

For those whose "Core position" is 100% of their Gold holdings, I do not see why they cannot just ignore the Trading ideas, or simply take them onboard when they want to Grow or Shrink their Gold holdings.

 

By seeing all the Trading ideas, after a while they may get a sense of which ones really matter to them. So they could ignore 80% or 90% of them, and only react to the Major Signals. They might even ask those who are talking about Trading, "Is this a Major or Minor Buy, from your point of view?"

 

Anyway, I would be interested in the opinions of others who are (still committed to) posting here

[romans holiday]

I hear you, but I don't really see why.

 

For those whose "Core position" is 100% of their Gold holdings, I do not see why they cannot just ignore the Trading ideas, or simply take them onboard when they want to Grow or Shrink their Gold holdings.

 

By seeing all the Trading ideas, after a while they may get a sense of which ones really matter to them. So they could ignore 80% or 90% of them, and only react to the Major Signals. They might even ask those who are talking about Trading, "Is this a Major or Minor Buy, from your point of view?"

Do you really think that a reader of a gold thread must either be a trader or a 100% B&H type?

 

I'd say that many of the readers here are just curious about gold, and then thinking about whether to buy a bit, or a lot, or not. They are obviously going to be more interested in long term trends.

 

Don't you see your forum as contributing valuable information to a wider readership? Or would you rather see the forum have a more insular focus?

[drbubb]

Do you really think that a reader of a gold thread must either be a trader or a 100% B&H type?

 

I'd say that many of the readers here are just curious about gold, and then thinking about whether to buy a bit, or a lot, or not. They are obviously going to be more interested in long term trends.

 

Don't you see your forum as contributing valuable information to a wider readership?

???

Readers can be of any stripe.

Do you think talk of Buying and Selling Gold is of no interest to those still learning about it?

 

I suppose the real question is: Who is the audience for this or any other thread about Gold

[romans holiday]

???

Readers can be of any stripe.

Do you think talk of Buying and Selling Gold is of no interest to those still learning about it?

 

I suppose the real question is: Who is the audience for this or any other thread about Gold

It will obviously be of interest.

 

And I think you've hit the nail on the head there.... 'this or that thread about gold'. Think about having a trading thread, and then an investing thread because they will attract different audiences... though will also over-lap. It's not about exclusion, but drawing distinctions. When you want to focus on your trading pot, you'd post in the trading thread. When you wanted to focus on increasing your longs, you'd post in the B&H thread [look how confusing it was on the previous page]

 

Two threads with distinct topics, involving different perspectives, aims, and motives. I know for one, I'd be interested in contributing also to a trading thread [though I focus more on the trading of silver].

 

Anyway, I'm going to leave it for others to express their opinion on whether it's a good idea to have separate threads for trading and investing in precious metals.

[halight]

I hear you, but I don't really see why.

 

For those whose "Core position" is 100% of their Gold holdings, I do not see why they cannot just ignore the Trading ideas, or simply take them onboard when they want to Grow or Shrink their Gold holdings.

 

By seeing all the Trading ideas, after a while they may get a sense of which ones really matter to them. So they could ignore 80% or 90% of them, and only react to the Major Signals. They might even ask those who are talking about Trading, "Is this a Major or Minor Buy, from your point of view?"

 

Anyway, I would be interested in the opinions of others who are (still committed to) posting here

 

 

Im happy for the talk on Gold B&H and talk on Gold trading to be together.

 

Point one, We may see when the clear buying times are better.

 

Point two, People wonting to increase the overall amount of Gold that they have may see times to sell all or some of their Gold, Then see the time to buy back, And hopefully end up with more 0z of gold than they started with.

 

Point three, As we see other peoples trades play out. We may learn something about how to trade/trade better.

[halight]

Gold Bulls Strengthen as Wagers Hit $131 Billion

 

Gold traders are the most bullish in four months after investors accumulated more metal than ever and hedge funds raised bets on gains to a five-month high.

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/gold-bulls-strengthening-as-bullion-wagers-reach-131-billion-commodities.html

[Errol]

The lower it goes the better. I'd love to pay less than £1000 an ounce. Who wouldn't want cheaper gold?

[drbubb]

Gold Bulls Strengthen as Wagers Hit $131 Billion

Gold traders are the most bullish in four months after investors accumulated more metal than ever and hedge funds raised bets on gains to a five-month high.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-09/gold-bulls-strengthening-as-bullion-wagers-reach-131-billion-commodities.html

This is not necessarily bullish. In fact, you may consider it bearish.

If Gold fails to rise as they expect, they may be driven to sell their Gold holdings.

If that happens, then watch out below !

 

The WARNING Power of Gold share prices

 

Deep drops in Gold share prices have heralded slides on the Price Of Gold

 

Here's XAU versus GLD/Gold ... update

 

 

Notice how in 2008, XAU dropped below its price channel, and soon thereafter Gold slid to deeper lows.

 

If XAU now drops to fresh lows for the year - and lower, that may be a serious warning sign.

[lyb]

There are different stages in gold investment.

 

1) People have committed small fractions of their net investment funds.

These are Buy and holders and may look at good BUY points to commit more funds.

2) Next step, is those that have committed a substantial percentage to precious metals.

Adding more is not desirable. These people (including myself) may be looking for SELL

points with the aim to buy back at lower price.

 

Hence both (1) and (2) may be interested in trading analysis which aims to identify good

BUY and SELL points. I take it for granted that we all have jobs to attend. If we spend some time

following these threads is because we ARE interested in adding to our position or sell to buy back at a profit.

 

 

In conclusion, no need for separate B+H and trade threads. However, most are only interested in major

BUY/SELL points which are less infrequent and would not be interested in daily fluctuations.

[jerpy]

I hear you, but I don't really see why.

 

For those whose "Core position" is 100% of their Gold holdings, I do not see why they cannot just ignore the Trading ideas, or simply take them onboard when they want to Grow or Shrink their Gold holdings.

 

By seeing all the Trading ideas, after a while they may get a sense of which ones really matter to them. So they could ignore 80% or 90% of them, and only react to the Major Signals. They might even ask those who are talking about Trading, "Is this a Major or Minor Buy, from your point of view?"

 

Anyway, I would be interested in the opinions of others who are (still committed to) posting here

 

Ok I'll finally stick my hand up. That post fairly accurately sums up my thoughts. I'm real sorry to see GF and others go, as I feel many have helped my current position.

 

None more so though than Steve N, who many moons ago suggested holding a core position of say 10-15% as an insurance policy, for whatever reason. Mine tends to drift between 15-20% of my liquid assets(discounting property) and I rarely comment, prefering to mainly lurk around on any Gold/Silver threads, as i've made my mind up how i play it.

 

What I do find useful and often bear in mind though, is others calls for tops or bottoms before purchasing or even taking the odd swap between Au/Ag; hence the trading thoughts helps in that instance.

 

Just my thoughts

[drbubb]

...a core position of say 10-15% as an insurance policy, for whatever reason. Mine tends to drift between 15-20% of my liquid assets(discounting property) and I rarely comment, prefering to mainly lurk around on any Gold/Silver threads, as i've made my mind up how i play it.

That seems very sensible IMHO.

 

My is below that range right now, but not much.

It has been far higher in some past times

[drbubb]

A Week of Gold Bulls or Horsefeathers ?

 

Sinclair going on record: March 9th

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/3/9_Jim_Sinclair.html

 

"The Euro will be around for a long time."

"The Dollar will break support this year at DXY-80, and then DXY-72."

"The Dollar has plenty of room on the downside below 70-72."

"There may be a bounce, but not above 78-80, and then 70 will be broken."

"Below that... we will be getting a new currency."

But WHAT IF Mr Sinclair is WRONG about the Dollar? (Could he be peddling horsefeathers... again?)

Suppose the Dollar rises instead? Then Gold may fall, perhaps back to $1650, even $1550 and lower

 

Here's UUP, the 2X Dollar etf versus GLD/Gold ... update

 

 

In the above chart, UUP closed on Friday at $22.26 ... update

 

 

... And was threatening to break out over the 76d-MA.

This coming week should be interesting.

[Errol]

But WHAT IF Mr Sinclair is WRONG about the Dollar? (Could he be peddling horsefeathers... again?)

Suppose the Dollar rises instead?

 

Er ... we buy more gold at a cheaper price.

 

And seriously, can't you mention Sinclair without the needless insults/attacks on his character?

[romans holiday]

Suppose the Dollar rises instead? Then Gold may fall, perhaps back to $1650, even $1550 and lower

Suppose they rise together [in the aggregate]?

[halight]

Suppose they rise together [in the aggregate]?

[/quote

 

 

Yes, that happened in january I think ????

[romans holiday]

 

Yes, that happened in january I think ????

There will be times when the dollar and gold will strengthen together, and times when they move contrary. It's simplistic to think these two currencies, two forms of liquidity must always move contrary to each-other.

 

That they could both strengthen in the aggregate is due to a preference for liquidity in a debt deflation.

[John Doe]

There will be times when the dollar and gold will strengthen together, and times when they move contrary. It's simplistic to think these two currencies, two forms of liquidity must always move contrary to each-other.

 

 

Unless it really is just another commodity

 

then again, as the great Julian Beck said......

 

Money is a commodity. Like oil or water. And that American dollar, is the best brand there is in the world. Now those of us who have it. Can make more of it. By loaning it to those who dont.

 

[halight]

There will be times when the dollar and gold will strengthen together, and times when they move contrary. It's simplistic to think these two currencies, two forms of liquidity must always move contrary to each-other.

 

That they could both strengthen in the aggregate is due to a preference for liquidity in a debt deflation.

 

 

 

Yes, Iv seen that pyramid before.

 

I Guess we need to see what happens in Europe over the next few weeks, If anyone smells for trouble over there then the Dollar and Dollar assets will be demand.

[drbubb]

Er ... we buy more gold at a cheaper price.

And seriously, can't you mention Sinclair without the needless insults/attacks on his character?

Thanks for asking.

Sure, I can, but not easily - since I usually see so much that seems to be "horsefeathers", misinformation, just plain confusion in his interviews.

 

If you go to the original place where it was posted, you will see I compared his confusing ideas about "magnetic" price targets, with the clarity and sense contained in Eric King's interview with Bill Fleckenstein. I think there are so many better sources of info than JS. And I do wonder why JS is held in high regard by any sensible person.

 

I had an idea to collect his information and then point out how useless* it is, until other people eventually get the point. I don't think he should be allowed to go on fooling people. (His misinformation about the dangers of Greek Bond CDS insurance is merely the latest example.) But that strategy may upset some of his fans, so I will try a bit harder to restrain myself.

=== ===

 

*His Angel Magnet targets, are nothing more than numbers squared:

41 x 41= $1,681, $1,764, 1,849, 1,936 etc.

I think these numbers are useless. More useless than information I get on astrocycles from Larry Pesevento, who some here find it easy to critize (for reasons I find mysterious), while Mr Gold's confusing and contradictory pronouncements are held in regard, providing a bizarre contrast, that I have never understood.