GOLD

[drbubb]

I believe I will be at a Canadian Chamber event the same day - concerning Mining.

 

Mines & Money is happening here next week, and it will be a rather busy week

[Ziknew]

That's "Money Velocity".

People, banks, and companies are not spending as fast as they once did.

 

That is partly because banks are not lending money as easily as before, I suppose.

The chart shows the ratio of quarterly nominal GDP to the quarterly average of M2 money stock.

 

I don’t believe it is possible to conclude “People, banks, and companies are not spending as fast as they once did” from the chart

 

And the chart definitely does not show “That is partly because banks are not lending money as easily as before, I suppose.”

 

This chart must be read in conjunction with the M2 Money Supply chart and the GDP chart to draw meaning full conclusions.

[drbubb]

The chart shows the ratio of quarterly nominal GDP to the quarterly average of M2 money stock.

 

I don’t believe it is possible to conclude “People, banks, and companies are not spending as fast as they once did” from the chart

And the chart definitely does not show “That is partly because banks are not lending money as easily as before, I suppose.”

This chart must be read in conjunction with the M2 Money Supply chart and the GDP chart to draw meaning full conclusions.

It is merely a hypothesis, Z.

Not a conclusion.

[TestIcicle]

he [they] simply over-reacted IMHO

I love this site. I don't contribute too much, but lurk avidly.

 

Losing G0ldfinger is a massive downer.

 

I thought GEI was above this. I suppose we're all human... apart from the aliens amongst us...

[drbubb]

Okay.

Here's what I am looking at: update

 

 

The next drop could be (not: "must be") imminent.

Here's what has happened thus far:

 

 

I don't think my comment was a bad call in hindsight, despite a minor sneer or two like this:

 

"Is that why the price keeps going up?"

 

After I said:

"The pressure seems to be to the downside at the moment, with GLD below the 144d MA"

 

What do you say now, Bos?

Do you see how I use these MA's now?

Next key test will be around GLD-$160, and I now detect a slight downwards bias in the 144d MA.

[bitbigt]

=== moved to another thread ===

[romans holiday]

Familiar pattern in gold here, seen a few times before:

 

 

[drbubb]

Familiar pattern in gold here, seen a few times before:

 

GOLD:

I think we are coming up to an important test at/near GLD-$160 = Gold:$1650-1660

 

Whodathiunkit when Gold was threatening to jump thru $1800 ?

[romans holiday]

GOLD:

I think we are coming up to an important test at/near GLD-$160 = Gold:$1650-1660

 

Whodathiunkit when Gold was threatening to jump thru $1800 ?

Ho hum.... all pretty predictable really. This from August last year:

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2874&view=findpost&p=224764

 

 

 

 

And this from a bit earlier in August... on the run-up to the spike:

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=2874&view=findpost&p=222418

 

 

Looking a little toppy here. Wouldn't be surprised to see it consolidate around these levels for a bit.

 

[drbubb]

Ho hum.... all pretty predictable really. This from August last year:

Nice one, RH!

Of course, we should also note that JS's $1650 is now again looking like an important number

 

Meantime, I think it is useful to revisit a favorite Ratio of mine

 

RATIO: GLD-to-SPY

 

You will note that it has fallen back to the "roots" of that Parabolic move up last year,

demonstrating again how parabolic moves tend to get retraced rather quickly.

 

The downtrend is still down, in my view, but at XX we are getting close to likely Support Levels near 1.10.

 

Will it break 1.00 (will GLD be less than SPY?)

I really doubt it will fall that far since now:

 

GLD : 162.30

SPY : 140.06

Gap : $22.24

Ratio 1.159

 

To get to 1.00 would require a further fall of 13.7%

If that all came in Gold, then it would drag prices from $1676 to $1,446.

 

I expect this price slide will stop soemwhere above that.

[drbubb]

A GOOD TIME to make some careful comparisons is now !

 

GLD- Weekly Chart ... update

 

 

It certain looks to me like we a seeing a FRACTAL from 2006 now repeating.

 

If the 2006 pattern continues, a stronger Gold price will follow.

But Gold will need to hold important support near $160.

So a very important test is likely coming within days.

 

== 2006 Pattern vs. 2011-12 Pattern == / update 2011-12

 

 

== Current Pattern : update 2011-12

== == ==

[drbubb]

I love this site. I don't contribute too much, but lurk avidly.

 

Losing G0ldfinger is a massive downer.

 

I thought GEI was above this. I suppose we're all human... apart from the aliens amongst us...

Repeating what I said before

 

Goldfinger was never banned or suspended from GEI.

Instead, I changed four Mods to members, and he reacted badly to that, even though I explained the reasons in a PM that I sent to all of them.

 

He is able to post here any time, and chooses not to.

 

If you don't like that, then I suggest you contact him wherever he has gone, and tell him he is still welcome on GEI.

 

For my part, change is natural, and people moving on from any website is part of internet life.

 

GEI goes on. In fact, I have the idea that broadening the mission here to something beyond buying Gold is a very good thing. I am fond of saying: Gold doesn't hedge all risks, and I think some of the risks that we face require a different approach.

 

So I invite you to help me find that broader mission. CMJ is doing her bit in driving a direction here. If you have some ideas of direction, then I am interested to discover it.

[drbubb]

I previously went from posting several times a day to not posting at all and only occasionally checking in. The reason I 'left' was GOldfinfger's over-zealous and egotistical moderation (I've been hiding his posts ever since), combined with Dr B's blind support of him. It is fascinating to now hear that Dr B supported GF as a matter of principle not necessarily because he agreed with him. GIven all of this, I have great sympathy with Dr B feeling that GF was becoming too presumptious and self important on the site.

Thanks for your understanding on that, BTBT

 

HOWEVER...

...even I cannot agree that Dr B handled the GF situation well. If there was a need to temper GFs role at GEI for the good of the site, then I would have expected a tactful and gentle approach would be made 1-2-1 to broach the subject and explain concerns, leading (presumably) to an agreed move of the Gold thread and/or a time away from moderation for GF. But it seems instead Dr B just applied these changes without such a respectful discussion. If I am wrong and such things did happen behind the scenes then I apologise. But if not, I think Dr B has been rather heavy handed and dictatorial. Yes, it is his site and so can run it that way if he wants to. But equally people can say they don't like this ...as many have said.

You did not see the message that I sent out to Mods, and also posted on the Administrators Board - here it is:

As far as I know and can see, the need for Moderation here has fallen back quite a bit.

 

Why?

Some of the more aggressively negative posters have left, and we have now been for a long time using a Manual Registration procedure.

 

As a result, I have started to reduce the number of Adminstrators here.

 

If you want to continue as an Adminstrator, please let me know. But I will first slim down the numbers to maybe just one or two, and then rebuild the Mod Team later.

 

PLEASE: do not take it personally if I change you status back to "Member."

== ==

 

One of our former Mods (Goldfinger) did take it very personally.

 

I want to thank you all for the help you have given me over the past months and years. The site is changing, and it probably makes sense to have a new Mod team, or at least reappoint some.

(Part of that was added later)

 

Perhaps GF did not see it. Is that my fault? I think not.

Still, after he left, I sent him a PM with a belated "Thank you"

 

It occurred to me that I had forgotten to thank him for his time and efforts as a moderator here - even though I received many complaints about it, and always backed him up, even when I disagreed. (In fact: There's a bit of damned if you support, and damned if you don't to this - Which if people think about it, I am sure they will see that I was stuck in a "no win" situation.)

 

Was I too "disrespectful"? Perhaps. Perhaps not.

 

LIFTING THE VEIL

 

But I can reveal now that...

I was seeing evidence that a concerted effort was being made to undermine GEI, and sling mud here - mostly at me - to get people to follow GF to another board where he was already posting. If I could prove that, would you feel differently about my action?

 

If I am wrong about that, then I would be grateful if GF himself would tell me so. In which case, I will be prepared to make a public apology for changing his membership status without a more full explanation, and a timely thank you.

[drbubb]

Gold down $17.70 -- near $1,658 .

Testing the $1650-1660 support level

 

... we buy more gold at a cheaper price.

 

There must be some happy folks out there, enjoying the discount.

 

I might pick up a few GLD calls, or Bull Spreads to today, but save "powder"

for later, in case Gold breaks support, and gets cheaper.

[Bosworth]

Here's what has happened thus far:

 

 

I don't think my comment was a bad call in hindsight, despite a minor sneer or two like this:

 

"Is that why the price keeps going up?"

 

After I said:

"The pressure seems to be to the downside at the moment, with GLD below the 144d MA"

 

What do you say now, Bos?

Do you see how I use these MA's now?

Next key test will be around GLD-$160, and I now detect a slight downwards bias in the 144d MA.

 

I don't understand what makes you so insecure to have to try and prove yourself right to everyone all the time. You appear to be an intelligent, successful, interesting individual yet you seem to crave recognition and respect not by just putting your cards on the table for discussion but by deliberately and childishly trying to rub other people's choices in their faces.

 

The price has moved small fractions. Nowhere near enough to recover my trading costs if I tried to sell and buy back physical. And nowhere near enough to consider hedging my current physical exposure.

 

What is it you are trying to achieve in the way you conduct yourself?

[drbubb]

I don't understand what makes you so insecure to have to try and prove yourself right to everyone all the time. You appear to be an intelligent, successful, interesting individual yet you seem to crave recognition and respect not by just putting your cards on the table for discussion but by deliberately and childishly trying to rub other people's choices in their faces.

 

The price has moved small fractions. Nowhere near enough to recover my trading costs if I tried to sell and buy back physical. And nowhere near enough to consider hedging my current physical exposure.

 

What is it you are trying to achieve in the way you conduct yourself?

Not at all. The price is down almost $60 for goodness sakes.

And GLD is down from $166 to $160, that's $6,000 on 10 GLD contracts.

I am sharing knowledge here. And asking no money for years of experience.

You and another made a sneering remark when I made my comment. (see below)

The least you can do is say: "Well done." That is really all that is needed.

And maybe to show a little more respect for the free service I am providing going forward.

 

The pressure seems to be to the downside at the moment, with GLD below the 144d MA

Is that why the price keeps going up?

 

Looks like Bubb is after Realistbear's title of 'contra indicator'

 

I wonder how you would react if this was your website,

and right after a very touchy moment, people started throwing little sneers your way, when actually you were doing a good job of monitoring the prices moves. And helping those who might appreciate being on the right side of a significant swing move, not seeking praise - just establishing that MA's are a useful tool. I copied your remark to make this very point, not to personally attack you. (But you came back with a personal directed: " the way you conduct yourself" ?? What's that for ?

 

It's a NEW DAY on GEI, and I am a little touchier than usual, but I am in no mood to have people trying to undermine the useful information that exists on this site from me and others.

 

There is no "open season on traders" here. If there was before, that was the Old GEI. I am happy to see people posting trading ideas and strategies here. And even Intraday charts. (Perhaps we will decide later, to leave this thread to the Longer-perspective traders, as it was before. But at this early stage, that is not yet clear.)

 

But if a $60 move is not meaningful to you, then please just ignore it.

[50sQuiff]

The sterling price of gold sovereigns at CoinInvest is down 4.1% peak-to-trough in this latest correction. Forgive me for not panicking.

[drbubb]

The sterling price of gold sovereigns at CoinInvest is down 4.1% peak-to-trough in this latest correction. Forgive me for not panicking.

Yeah.

Don't panic ... yet.

 

This GLD-$160 level looks pretty important on my charts.

It is being hit with some pretty heavy volume, and there's a good chance it will hold by the Close.

 

In fact, I plan to buy some GLD calls today, and will put an order in shortly.

 

However, if the volume is heavy and it slide through here on the close, then GLD$150 = Gold$1550

would beacon.

[CIGA]

Can I ask what has happened to the old GOLD thread which i found to be highly informative, and a very good guide on the populrity of the subject over time - and who is this guy called Bubb?

 

It seems he created this thread so that he can continuously talk to himself on it - maybe its because he agrees with himslef and there is noone to oppose his view that way?? anyway dude get a grip and please can whoever runs this site bring back the Gold Thread.

 

Also i think this Bubb guy needs a cool off period he obviously has some self centred, pompous, egotistic issues which are not healthy for this once excellent site. Webmaster/Owner please can you maybe ban this deranged fool for a while?

[drbubb]

Can I ask what has happened to the old GOLD thread which i found to be highly informative, and a very good guide on the populrity of the subject over time - and who is this guy called Bubb?

 

It seems he created this thread so that he can continuously talk to himself on it - maybe its because he agrees with himslef and there is noone to oppose his view that way?? anyway dude get a grip and please can whoever runs this site bring back the Gold Thread.

 

Also i think this Bubb guy needs a cool off period he obviously has some self centred, pompous, egotistic issues which are not healthy for this once excellent site. Webmaster/Owner please can you maybe ban this deranged fool for a while?

thanks for your insult

I am not really in the mood for that. So I did not laugh.

 

The Old Gold thread still exists. We are now testing a new model.

I posted the following on my Diary:

Ah well.

 

The Mud-Bots are back on the Gold thread.

 

The question I am pondering is:

+ Suspend 5-6 of them to make an example, or

+ Rename it the Long-term Perspective Gold thread, and leave the thread to them

 

Any comments here?

 

Perhaps a day or so of fielding comments, will make the wisest decision clear.

But I do not want to go back to the "bad old days" of Long term perspective guys jumping all over those with a different viewpoint. That isn't the sort of website I want GEI to be.

[drbubb]

I am suspending CIGA for a week for his insult on another thread (which I shall probably delete later)

[Ziknew]

...

There must be some happy folks out there, enjoying the discount.

Yes

 

I might pick up a few GLD calls, or Bull Spreads to today, but save "powder"

for later, in case Gold breaks support, and gets cheaper.

I'm saving some powder too

[Ziknew]

I am suspending CIGA for a week for his insult on another thread (which I shall probably delete later)

Moderation in public is a positive development. We can all see who was banned and for how long in this case.

 

I know I am too late... but maybe such comments should not be deleted so we can all see what is deemed unacceptable.

[drbubb]

Yes

I'm saving some powder too

I did buy some April-GLD-$155 Calls.

 

But I am not entirely happy with the heavy selling volume,

so I am going to hold off on buying more.

[drbubb]

Moderation in public is a positive development. We can all see who was banned and for how long in this case.

 

I know I am too late... but maybe such comments should not be deleted so we can all see what is deemed unacceptable.

I will send you a PM with that.

I welcome your comment by return PM.

 

In your case many months ago, I think the Mod overdid it considerably. (But I did not over-rule, since I think it is important to support the Mods here.)

 

But you may be in a good position to comment on my reaction to CIGA's comment.