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Sounds about right. A long remonetization of the metal at 20% a year. A counter-balance of sorts to the 20/ 30 year inflation of house prices.

 

Why stuffed? If you want an 'earlier return', why not trade the volatility of silver?

 

 

Surely silver will follow a similar route? I was hoping not to have to go in and out of gold/silver too much.

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Surely silver will follow a similar route? I was hoping not to have to go in and out of gold/silver too much.

No one is making you do anything of the kind. You should hope for that opportunity to make higher returns, not hope against it.

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Does anyone have any proof of massive short positions on Gold currently operating which are driving the price lower?

Previously when any country within the EMU has found itself unable to pay high levels of interest on servicing their debt, Gold has gone up massively in price. Was that purely on the expectation of a bail-out of the country threatened

 

Is it going to play out differently this time, does Greece leaving the EMU without any more bail-out mean deflation, less money supply and consequently a continuation of the Gold price downwards?

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Does anyone have any proof of massive short positions on Gold currently operating which are driving the price lower?

Previously when any country within the EMU has found itself unable to pay high levels of interest on servicing their debt, Gold has gone up massively in price. Was that purely on the expectation of a bail-out of the country threatened

 

Is it going to play out differently this time, does Greece leaving the EMU without any more bail-out mean deflation, less money supply and consequently a continuation of the Gold price downwards?

Now is really not the time to be asking these kinds of questions. You should already be decided and either staying out or engaged in a buying program.

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Now is really not the time to be asking these kinds of questions. You should already be decided and either staying out or engaged in a buying program.

Perhaps an exit strategy..........

 

Worries about Europe are pushing people to the dollar,” Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “Gold will continue to grind down.”

Advertisement: Story continues below

Gold futures for June delivery declined 1.5 per cent to settle at $US1561 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Earlier, prices touched $US1555, the lowest since Dec. 30. The metal ended 2011 up 10 per cent at $US1566.80.

Prices may slump to $US1,520 within the next few trading sessions, McGhee said.

Bullion for immediate delivery dropped as much as 1.4 per cent to $US1556.52. It ended 2011 at $US1563.70

 

 

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/gold-erases-years-gains-20120515-1ynlk.html#ixzz1ut5RBgRA

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Does anyone have any proof of massive short positions on Gold currently operating which are driving the price lower?

Previously when any country within the EMU has found itself unable to pay high levels of interest on servicing their debt, Gold has gone up massively in price. Was that purely on the expectation of a bail-out of the country threatened

 

Is it going to play out differently this time, does Greece leaving the EMU without any more bail-out mean deflation, less money supply and consequently a continuation of the Gold price downwards?

In the short term, things can get choppy and disorientating... due to all the cross currents. First gold spikes up then it consolidates... then it sells off. You get your bearings more with the long term. Gold and the dollar should both appreciate as the best forms of liquidity... though gold more.

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Surely silver will follow a similar route? I was hoping not to have to go in and out of gold/silver too much.

Yes, but more volatile. Hence the opportunity to trade that metal [for dollars]... as a hedge against your long in gold.

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Last Year's Gold Top was not a "real" parabola - says Adam Hamilton

 

adam_20120511_1.gif

 

When gold bears try to advance their thesis that gold’s latest secular bull climaxed last August, they often trot out a long-term gold chart. But it is not inflation-adjusted, merely the nominal red line shown in this chart. And in nominal terms, gold’s latest bull indeed utterly dwarfs the 1970s one. Even though this nominal comparison is a useless apples-to-oranges exercise, it can certainly seem convincing.

 

But in real inflation-adjusted terms, even when using a pathetic understated political index like the CPI, a radically different picture emerges.

 

On the pure size front, the 1970s bull utterly dwarfs our latest one. In real terms gold rocketed 1082% higher between January 1970 and January 1980. In the misleading nominal terms gold bulls love to cite, this was a staggering 2332% gain! But our current bull isn’t even half this size yet. In real terms it was only up 478% between April 2001 and August 2011, which was merely 640% in nominal terms.

 

The main reason our latest bull is less than half the size of its predecessor is there has been no popular speculative mania yet. While gold’s excellent secular-bull gains have gradually won over investors, they’ve yet to become enamored with it. Nor has the general public that fueled the NASDAQ’s parabolic secular-bull climax in early 2000. Gold simply hasn’t become a universal market darling yet.

. . .

Without the necessary psychological conclusion parabolic blowoffs cap secular bulls with, sentiment will generally remain bullish. After any normal topping that isn’t driven by an extreme popular speculative mania, plenty of buyers rush in to reestablish positions when they think the correction has run its course. Secular bull markets really can’t climax without the extreme psychological whipsawing of the parabolic blowoff and subsequent collapse. It shatters bull psychology.

 

The bottom line is gold’s latest secular bull almost certainly didn’t climax last summer. Such major bulls need an extreme psychological event to end them. And it comes in the form of a popular speculative mania and vertical parabolic ascent. While gold was indeed overbought last August, the resulting topping looked absolutely nothing like the previous gold-bull climax of several decades ago.

 

And if gold’s bull isn’t over, then gold is destined to power to new all-time highs sooner or later

 

/more: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Hamilton/20120511.html

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What Horsepucky!

CB's Buying Gold aggressively, and forcing the price... Down ?? (wtf?)

 

 

Central Banks Aggressively Buying Gold, Commodity Report by Top Financial Newsletter Profit Confidential

 

PRWeb - May 15, 2012

 

In March 2012 alone, 57.9 tons of gold bullion were purchased by world central banks, according to a report by Michael Lombardi, lead contributor to Profit Confidential, and he believes more buying should be expected on any pullbacks.

 

New York, NY (PRWEB) May 15, 2012

 

In March 2012 alone, 57.9 tons of gold bullion were purchased by world central banks, according to a report by Michael Lombardi, lead contributor to Profit Confidential, and he believes more buying should be expected on any pullbacks.

 

“To give some perspective on this number, in 2011, central banks bought just under 440 tons of gold bullion, a rate of 37 tons a month,” says Lombardi.

 

In the recent Profit Confidential article, Half of World Gold Production Being Bought by Central Banks, Lombardi believes the central banks took advantage of the lower prices in gold bullion to buy significant amounts of the metal.

 

/more: http://www.chron.com/business/press-releases/article/Central-Banks-Aggressively-Buying-Gold-Commodity-3558539.php

 

 

Has this guy never heard of Supply and Demand ?

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excerpt from ft.com;

 

"Japanese pension fund switches to gold

 

Okayama Metal & Machinery has become the first Japanese pension fund to make public purchases of gold, in a sign of dwindling faith in paper currencies.

 

Initially, the fund aims to keep about 1.5 per cent of its total assets of Y40bn ($500m) in bullion-backed exchange traded funds, according to chief investment officer Yoshisuke Kiguchi, who said he was diversifying into gold to "escape sovereign risk".

 

The move into a non-yielding asset comes as funds in the world's second-biggest pension market are under increasing pressure to meet promised payments, as domestic interest rates remain rooted near zero. This year, the first of Japan's baby boomers turn 65, becoming eligible for payouts.

 

Mr Kiguchi said the lack of yield was a concern for the fund's investment committee, but he persuaded them that "from a very long-term point of view, gold may be one of the safe currencies". He added that he had sold Australian dollars this month to meet his initial target allocation for gold for the fund, which has 20,000 members.

 

Mizuho Trust & Banking, a unit of Mizuho Financial Group, has begun to offer investment schemes allowing smaller pension funds to invest in gold.

 

While few fund managers are counting on a crash in core assets such as Japanese government bonds, said Takahiro Morita, head of the Tokyo arm of the World Gold Council, a producers' association, they were increasingly receptive to the idea that gold could act as a buffer against shocks. "Last year's tsunami and the eurozone debt crisis shows that it was wise to expect the unexpected," he said.

 

Historically, institutions in the $3.4tn Japanese pension market have clung to traditional assets. Bonds accounted for 59 per cent of industry assets in 2011, the highest share in the world, according to Towers Watson, a consultant. Just 6 per cent – the lowest share – was invested in alternatives such as property, private equity and hedge funds.

 

Within Japan the image of gold has struggled to recover the lustre lost after a scandal in the mid-1980s involving Toyota Shoji, which duped thousands of elderly investors by promising gold bars that were never delivered. Now, though, households are showing more interest."

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What Horsepucky!

CB's Buying Gold aggressively, and forcing the price... Down ?? (wtf?)

 

 

Central Banks Aggressively Buying Gold, Commodity Report by Top Financial Newsletter Profit Confidential

 

PRWeb - May 15, 2012

 

In March 2012 alone, 57.9 tons of gold bullion were purchased by world central banks, according to a report by Michael Lombardi, lead contributor to Profit Confidential, and he believes more buying should be expected on any pullbacks.

 

New York, NY (PRWEB) May 15, 2012

 

In March 2012 alone, 57.9 tons of gold bullion were purchased by world central banks, according to a report by Michael Lombardi, lead contributor to Profit Confidential, and he believes more buying should be expected on any pullbacks.

 

“To give some perspective on this number, in 2011, central banks bought just under 440 tons of gold bullion, a rate of 37 tons a month,” says Lombardi.

 

In the recent Profit Confidential article, Half of World Gold Production Being Bought by Central Banks, Lombardi believes the central banks took advantage of the lower prices in gold bullion to buy significant amounts of the metal.

 

/more: http://www.chron.com/business/press-releases/article/Central-Banks-Aggressively-Buying-Gold-Commodity-3558539.php

 

 

Has this guy never heard of Supply and Demand ?

 

I can't find where he says theyre forcing the price down by buying gold. If he did then he is an unbelievable jerk.

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I can't find where he says theyre forcing the price down by buying gold. If he did then he is an unbelievable jerk.

He doesn't say that exactly with those words.

 

But clearly, the "aggressive" buying he is talking about happened at a time of falling prices.

So who is selling even more than the CB's to drive the price lower ??

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This is what a move off an important bottom looks like

 

gld.gif

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This is what a move off an important bottom looks like

gld.gif

Two big signs of the Upwards Reversal

 

+ The turn came at a Key support level: A Classic Double bottom

+ The Volume surged upwards (see above) as prices turned up.

 

It seems that people who have been waiting to Buy, decided prices were low enough

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TOPIC TITLE: Do the past 5-year trends of GLD, SPY and UUP tell us the forthcoming trends?

 

I am posting this topic as an amateur in the above captioned topic. Please pardon me if I got it all wrong. The purpose of my posting below is to invite your comments on my observations and questions on the trend chart shown below. You may find it easier to read the trend chart by copying and pasting onto Microsoft WORD, and zoom into the chart.

 

My observations and questions:

 

GLD and SPY

-----------------

Please note that I use SPY instead of SPX because both GLD and SPY are ETFs.

 

GLD (shown as candle sticks) is NOT behaving what I would expect last night on 17 May 2012 (Thursday) when SPY (shown as the brownish orange line) continues to decline after the incidence of JPMorgan’s saga and the Greece’s ongoing crisis in managing its economy. I expected that GLD would have continued to decline when SPY continued to drop last night!

 

If we look back in mid-September 2008 on the trend chart below when Lehman Brothers was dissolved, GLD continued to decline with that of SPY. We all expect these trends to be normal when we expect the large market players were struggling to save their funds/investments by using their hedged GOLD starting from mid-September to late October 2008.

 

Nevertheless, SPY trended in an opposite direction to the trend of GLD (called “opposite-direction trending”) starting from mid-February 2009 to mid-August 2009 approximately. This opposite trending between SPY and GLD puzzles me, which is similar to what I am observing since last night on 17 May 2012.

 

WHY?

 

Further, this opposite-direction trending between SPY and GLD was again shown from March to September 2011 approximately.

 

Who can explain the above abnormalies?

 

UUP

-----

Ah! I find the trend line of UUP fascinating. If you look closely at the incremental movements in the UUP trend line as soon as Lehman Brothers’ saga was exposed in mid-September 2008 all the way to March 2009, and then from July or August 2011 up to now 17 May 2012,

 

what facts do we have to explain the unusual UUP’s behaviours?

 

The most important questions of all:

 

What do you expect in the behaviours of big market players in the US and Europe in manipulating the buying and selling of USD (which is reflected in the UUP’s prices), GOLD (reflected in GLD), and US major stocks such as GOOG, AAPL, IBM, AMZN, etc. etc. today on Friday 18 May 2012, and the next two weeks?

 

I will continue to pose interesting questions in the coming two weeks as a very small investor myself in gold shares.

 

chart1.gif

 

G.H.V.

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TOPIC TITLE: Do the past 5-year trends of GLD, SPY and UUP tell us the forthcoming trends?

...opposite-direction trending between SPY and GLD was again shown from March to September 2011 approximately.

 

Who can explain the above abnormalies?

Okay.

This subject has been discussed on DrBubb's Diary, and elsewhere:

Will physical gold fall as this holocaust unfolds?

I am tempted to buy some sovs before we see a parliament in southern Europe set alight.

If enough credit gets destroyed, and people sell their Gold to cover margin calls,

then Gold could fall furher.

 

But perhaps the long slide "clean up" sufficient Gold-related margin debt that we will not see that.

 

If people are getting their money out of Euros in Greece and Spain, they just might turn to both the Dollar and Gold.

Then the infant Gold rally would feed on itself.

 

MONEY FLOWS

There are also some charts that relate to Gold versus SPY moves on the Money Flows thread:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=16443

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GLD (shown as candle sticks) is NOT behaving what I would expect last night on 17 May 2012 (Thursday) when SPY (shown as the brownish orange line) continues to decline after the incidence of JPMorgan’s saga and the Greece’s ongoing crisis in managing its economy. I expected that GLD would have continued to decline when SPY continued to drop last night!

 

If we look back in mid-September 2008 on the trend chart below when Lehman Brothers was dissolved, GLD continued to decline with that of SPY. We all expect these trends to be normal when we expect the large market players were struggling to save their funds/investments by using their hedged GOLD starting from mid-September to late October 2008.

 

Nevertheless, SPY trended in an opposite direction to the trend of GLD (called “opposite-direction trending”) starting from mid-February 2009 to mid-August 2009 approximately. This opposite trending between SPY and GLD puzzles me, which is similar to what I am observing since last night on 17 May 2012.

Traders/ investors always look for repeating patterns. More often than not they are just not there. The trend in 2012 is turning out not to be neither like 2006 or 2008 but more like... itself, which is somwhere between 2006 and 2008.

 

In 2008 there was a munch more violemt period of deleveraging than the deleveraging we are seeing now. This could be the reason why gold has [will] 'decouple' earlier than 2008 from the the deleveraging as seen in other investments such as SPY. Being a form of liquidity besides a [leveraged] investment the gold market gets caught in cross currents which should see the price hold up relatively well compared to other investments simply caught in a tide of deleveraging.

 

Talking of tides, been on a week long trip around the east cape of NZ:

 

eatscape.jpg

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Talking of tides, been on a week long trip around the east cape of NZ:

 

eatscape.jpg

Beautiful, blue, CLEAN AIR, of the sort we almsot never see in Hong Kong

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Beautiful, blue, CLEAN AIR, of the sort we almsot never see in Hong Kong

nothing compared to NSW south coast with white sands and clear water with waves you can surf and fish http://www.fishingmonthly.com.au/Articles/Display/8552-Estuaries-thaw-out

 

http://www.barramundifishingblog.com/

 

you can have clean air http://www.google.com.au/search?q=byron+bay&hl=en&prmd=imvns&source=lnms&tbm=isch&ei=6uG4T-WJMaydiAekoKDyCA&sa=X&oi=mode_link&ct=mode&cd=2&ved=0CHUQ_AUoAQ&biw=1600&bih=7

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Talking of tides, been on a week long trip around the east cape of NZ:

 

eatscape.jpg

 

...one of my favourite parts of the world. But as this is the gold thread - shouldn't you have been further to the north-west?

 

(or much further south - but presumably that is where you started...)

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...one of my favourite parts of the world. But as this is the gold thread - shouldn't you have been further to the north-west?

 

(or much further south - but presumably that is where you started...)

South Island is the place to go for fossicking. Managed to find half an ounce over a three week period last summer with a sluice box and pan. Hard work though.... easier to just invest in it. :lol:

 

Just come from the apple season in Hawkes Bay [below the east cape] where I was the 'QC' on a picking gang [not Queen's Counsel but Quality Control]. Two months of work has raised enough pocket money for four months of leisure. Next port of call... the far north as is bit warmer up there. :rolleyes:

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Wouldn't be surprised to see one more down-leg in the metals. This should see a spike in the ratio upwards of 60. Could be a good time to swap gold for silver.

 

 

gold_5_year_silver-1.png

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MANY countries to the US Federal Reserve (and the BIS):

 

"WE want OUR gold back !"

 

 

This story could have legs.

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