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Chart of the month (January 2013)

They say history does not repeat, but it rhymes sometimes. If, for the purpose of this little column, we assumed that gold price history rhymes from time to time, we would possibly first note, that ever since gold assumed its multi-decade low in 1999 (the infamous Brown Bottom) and then, a year or two later, started its rise in a now more than a decade long bull market, there have been five prominent price spikes: on 2001-05-21 with $288.35, on 2003-02-05 with $385.00, on 2006-05-12 with $725.75, on 2008-03-17 with $1,023.50, and on 2011-09-05 with $1,896.50 (prices are LBM AM Fixings). If we number these price spikes from 1 to 5, we can see that 1 and 2, respectively 3 and 4, are closer to each other. Expressed differently, they seem to come in pairs. Further more, the rise within the pairs (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) was 34% and 41%, while from one pair to the next (2 to 3 and 4 to 5), if we assume that the most recent fifth spike belongs to a pair as well, it was 89% and 85%. If we take the middle of these respective moves, and also extrapolate the times between them into the future, we could try and guess what a sixth (second spike in a third pair) and a seventh price spike (first spike in a fourth pair) could look like (see also chart below). Our guess would be 2013-06-24 with $2,603.37 (spike 6) and 2015-01-29 with $4,865.73 (spike 7). So, should you be surprised if you would see a $1,000 move in gold in the first half of 2013? We think you shouldn't.

Best wishes for 2013 from the Approximity Gold Team!

Gold_USD_LOG_GUESS_130101.png

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New thread, so the charts are easier to find:

 

Measured in Gold / Charts by G0ldfinger:

http://www.greenener...showtopic=17200

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http://gold.approxim...old_charts.html

Chart of the month (January 2013)

They say history does not repeat, but it rhymes sometimes. If, for the purpose of this little column, we assumed that gold price history rhymes from time to time, we would possibly first note, that ever since gold assumed its multi-decade low in 1999 (the infamous Brown Bottom) and then, a year or two later, started its rise in a now more than a decade long bull market, there have been five prominent price spikes: on 2001-05-21 with $288.35, on 2003-02-05 with $385.00, on 2006-05-12 with $725.75, on 2008-03-17 with $1,023.50, and on 2011-09-05 with $1,896.50 (prices are LBM AM Fixings). If we number these price spikes from 1 to 5, we can see that 1 and 2, respectively 3 and 4, are closer to each other. Expressed differently, they seem to come in pairs. Further more, the rise within the pairs (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) was 34% and 41%, while from one pair to the next (2 to 3 and 4 to 5), if we assume that the most recent fifth spike belongs to a pair as well, it was 89% and 85%. If we take the middle of these respective moves, and also extrapolate the times between them into the future, we could try and guess what a sixth (second spike in a third pair) and a seventh price spike (first spike in a fourth pair) could look like (see also chart below). Our guess would be 2013-06-24 with $2,603.37 (spike 6) and 2015-01-29 with $4,865.73 (spike 7). So, should you be surprised if you would see a $1,000 move in gold in the first half of 2013? We think you shouldn't.

Best wishes for 2013 from the Approximity Gold Team!

Gold_USD_LOG_GUESS_130101.png

 

 

So something like a 20% appreciation of the 'base-line' averaged year on year? :rolleyes:

 

 

log-2.gif

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Getting absolutely hammered again today, and continuing overnight. All of the gains of the last week have vanished.

This is not a good sign!

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Getting absolutely hammered again today, and continuing overnight. All of the gains of the last week have vanished.

This is not a good sign!

 

 

A re-test of 1600 would give a good symmetry to the large cup pattern forming since Sept '11..

 

sym.png

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Gold set for 6th weekly drop - worst run since 2004

 

http://www.businessw...nd-of-purchases

 

 

Gold tumbled, poised for the longest run of weekly losses since 2004, as Federal Reserve policy makers said that they’ll probably end asset purchases this year and investors cut holdings by the most since May. Silver slumped to the lowest since August while palladium and platinum dropped.

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$1630. This is horrific.

Now +1% YoY, Silver 0% YoY.

So much for being an inflation hedge.

 

 

UK;GBS/Gold is now below an important MA (480d), which has been important previously / GBS-chart

 

Let's both hope for a bounce

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Don't panic don't panic -in a manipulated paper market you can throw the charts out the window

the $ is fatally flawed , all fiat is being printed to infinity , the debt is exploding, gold/silver will be

the last man standing. Scaring people away from the physical is priority, accumulation of the physical at lower prices

is what the smart investor will do .

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"Not a very impressive bounce- falling back now.. $1642.

Needs to show some further strength here, or we are headed lower still.

- Van commented, & I responded:

Let's see how GLD closes in NYC.

Gold could put in a nice V bottom today

 

Close for GLD : $160.44 -0.76 (x 10.34 = $ 1,659)

Open:159.52 / High:160.635 / Low:158.89

Volume: 19,100,877

Percent Change: -0.47%

 

The day's Low for GBS was: $157.00

 

gbs.gif

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This article might just explain the "recent" underperformance

http://gainspainscap...out-qe-3-and-4/

EXCERPT:

The only issue with this is that the Fed lied.

 

Today, the Fed’s balance sheet is $1.3 billion smaller than it was at this time last year. Last week it was $19 billion smaller. The largest year over year growth the Fed balance sheet has shown since QE 3 was announced occurred on November 23, 2012 when the Fed balance sheet was a mere $48 billion larger than it was at the same point in 2011.

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From the E-Wave thread here

 

Bannister's Gold E-Wave Count

 

To be sure, I count this as cycle year 13 in the Gold bull market and I had Gold peaking in June of 2013 at 2280-2400 ranges per ounce, but we will have to see now if that is still valid or not based on whether this C wave can hold and reverse hard soon.

 

banister04aspx.jpg

====

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http://www.bloomberg...-inflation.html

 

Gold Lures Japan’s Pension Funds as Abe Targets Inflation

...

Japanese pension funds, the world’s second-largest pool of retirement assets after the U.S., will more than double their gold holdings in the next two years as the government seeks to target inflation to bolster economic growth, according to an adviser to the funds.

...

“Pension money invested in bullion is ‘peanuts’ at the moment,” Toshima said. “If 1 percent of their total assets shift to the metal, the gold market would explode.”

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Yes.

But it left a gap, which leaves me a bit uncomfortable.

Maybe it needs to fill that

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From DrB's Diary... With GOLD DOWN over $13

 

Here's Intraday GLD ... update

gld10d.gif

 

Could this Drop be a mere "Gap-filling exercise"?

Maybe - I bought some GLD calls, to replace some that I sold on the Gap up yesterday,

and also moved the expiry from Jan. (next Friday) to March

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Good read. And you might like this.

http://kingworldnews..._Explosion.html

 

And also, (in Yen) It is one of the only currencies that has not yet seen gold overcome its highs of 1980. But not for much longer?

 

Gold_JPY.png

 

http://gold.tanaka.co.jp/commodity/souba/english/index.php

 

Price information(As of at 16:00 on 01/11/2013) spacer.gifspacer.gifGOLD PLATINUM SILVER Our retail selling price(tax included) 5,067 yen 4,999 yen 95.76 yen (Change from previous price) +109 yen +166 yen +2.52 yen Our retail buying price(tax included) 4,984 yen 4,874 yen 91.77 yen (Change from previous price) +109 yen +166 yen +2.52 yen Prices for gold and platinum above are per gram of a one-kilo bar.

Prices for silver are per gram of a 30 kg-bar. spacer.gifCoin names Size Our retail selling price, tax included Our retail buying price, tax included (with a premium) Our retail buying price, tax included (without a premium) Vienna Philharmonic

Gold Maple Leaf 1 OZ 1/2 OZ 1/4 OZ 1/10 OZ 170,609 yen 86,929 yen 44,972 yen 18,415 yen 156,287 yen 79,632 yen 39,933 yen 16,182 yen 148,865 yen 74,432 yen 36,640 yen 14,579 yen

 

 

Nice to see gold punch through the 5000 yen/gram. With Yen weakening hereon, I wonder when gold will double in Yen?

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