GOLD

[Perishabull]

Now this is beginning to make sense:

 

(Mario Draghi, ex-Goldman: http://en.wikipedia....ki/Mario_Draghi )

Draghi was then vice chairman and managing director of Goldman Sachs International and a member of the firm-wide management committee (2002–2005).^[6]

 

and pieced together with this:

 

http://www.zerohedge...ilout-shortfall

Mario Draghi Orders Cyprus To Sell Gold To Cover Bailout "Shortfall"

 

...13.9 tons, of its central bank gold. Today, we learn that this demand came from none other than the head of the ECB Mario Draghi. Bloomberg reports: "European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the profits of any gold sales by the Cypriot central bank must be used to cover losses it may sustain from emergency loans to Cypriot commercial banks."

 

That's just ridiculous isn't it.

[aardvark]

such a huge drop in gold for no particular reason is highly suspicious.

i wonder what is going on in the background.

[cranberryDog46]

could it be due to Cyprus having to sell their Gold,

 

the market anticipating increased supply

[happy]

could it be due to Cyprus having to sell their Gold,

 

from Zeal Intelligence: GLD Holdings Plunge

 

The amount of gold bullion GLD has hemorrhaged recently is amazing. To put it into perspective, earlier this week the rumor that embattled Cyprus may be forced to sell its official gold reserves made news. The Cypriot government owns 13.9 metric tons of gold. But on a single trading day alone in February’s gold capitulation, GLD had to sell 20.8 tonnes! The supply recently added by GLD dwarfs everything else.

 

Why is GLD dumping gold so aggressively? While silly conspiracy theories abound as always in the gold world, the reality is far less provocative. GLD’s mission is simply to track the price of gold. The World Gold Council (which is funded by leading gold miners) created this gold investment vehicle in November 2004 to offer stock investors an easy, cheap, and efficient way to obtain gold exposure in their portfolios.

 

The gold miners created a direct conduit for the vast pools of stock-market capital to chase gold. The only way for GLD to fulfill its mission of tracking gold is for this ETF to shunt excess GLD-share demand and supply into underlying physical gold bullion itself. This capital sloshing into and out of gold via GLD has naturally had a massive impact on global gold prices. And lately gold has suffered a major GLD exodus.

[drbubb]

PANIC SELLING ENGULFS GOLD (-$76) AND SILVER (-$1.54)

Posted By: NaturalWisdom

Date: Friday, 12-Apr-2013 16:03:54

If you believe today's collapse in precious metals prices was caused by normal supply and demand factors and not orchestrated by the cabal pulling levers behind the curtain, then you're probably the type who'd also have an interest in buying bridges in Arizona or beachfront property in the Sahara Desert.

 

Panic Selling Hits Gold

Trader Dan's Market Views

Friday, April 12, 2013

"It is too early to call this as a final washout day but it has the makings of one. Thus far volume is running about 3-4 times its normal size! It might be in the range of over 300K by the time this session is over.The emotions are off the chart as FEAR and PANIC are on full display..."

http://bit.ly/ZRARDI

 

Maguire – Over 500 Tons Of Paper Gold Sold In Takedown

King World News

Friday, April 12, 2013

"Whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News that more than a stunning 500 tons of paper gold has been sold in today’s takedown in the gold market. Maguire also spoke to KWN about the staggering Chinese physical gold purchases..."

http://bit.ly/14iaMGE

 

Bashers For Hire Gone Wild

Jim Sinclair's Mineset

Friday, April 12, 2013

"I am complimented that it appears all the Yahoo "Bashers for Hire" activity is being focused on me today. That speaks positively to the end game in gold. I am encouraged by every obvious attempt to get into my head executed in any manner. The gold market bottoms the minute China and Russia decide it will and no chart can tell you that..."

http://bit.ly/10UWh78

 

===

/more: http://nesaranews.blogspot.hk/2013/04/panic-selling-engulfs-gold-76-and.html

[Perishabull]

Panic Selling Hits Gold

Trader Dan's Market Views

Friday, April 12, 2013

"It is too early to call this as a final washout day but it has the makings of one. Thus far volume is running about 3-4 times its normal size! It might be in the range of over 300K by the time this session is over.The emotions are off the chart as FEAR and PANIC are on full display..."

http://bit.ly/ZRARDI

 

 

 

Yes the volume aspect was very suspect. The last time volume in gold was at this level was 26th September 2011, when price crashed down to $1535, before recovering to $1630 that day.

 

[aardvark]

 

If you believe today's collapse in precious metals prices was caused by normal supply and demand factors and not orchestrated by the cabal pulling levers behind the curtain, then you're probably the type who'd also have an interest in buying bridges in Arizona or beachfront property in the Sahara Desert.

 

 

i agree, they physical supply just isn't there. The maguire comments are very interesting.

[Gatesy]

If ever I'd be interested in a comment from Cuthebert C now is the time....

[sb007]

Someone is taking significant amount of gold from Comex this year. Total about 30000 contracts (100 ton).

 

http://www.prisonpla...-on-record.html

 

Data from the exchange show that gold is mostly delivered by JPM.

http://www.cmegroup....psYTDReport.pdf

 

This could have many explanations, one of them is that someone is pushing market down to buy cheaply gold from JPM, another could be that one hedge fund is pushing market down another long hedge fund counters by taking delivery which is offset by JPM supplying gold from the warehouse. It would be interesting to see what happens end of May when June contract will become deliverable, JPM has enough gold for other 15000 contracts in the warehouse, after that it is likely it would have to buy gold on the spot market to continue or buy back futures so that someone else would have to deliver, which can trigger squeeze.

 

Does anyone some ideas or more info about this?

[happy]

Gold Plunges: Is Now a Buying Opportunity?

 

[Van]

As per:

 

It's consistent with "new dynamics". Extremes in sentiment, when they do not produce a bounceback, tend to result in a "new norm".

The Gold bulls should be VERY concerned right now.

 

A new dynamic is at hand. The extremes have become then new norms.

My position was wiped out a few weeks ago and I will not be re-entering until a clear base has been formed.

[notanewmember]

These are my forecasts, valid for the next 3 months (just for educational purposes, and not investment advice).

GOLD$ - Neutral stance, until it closes weekly under $1490/Toz I would be bearish, above $1810/Toz I would be bullish.

GOLD£ - Neutral stance, until it closes weekly under £990/Toz I would be bearish, above £1100/Toz I would be bullish.

As above, significant

[notanewmember]

This video partially explains it in generic terms, what I said above;

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkHctbFTUc4

 

And this is the gold GLD chart - almost an exact case study for the video above. Watch this space - will we be in the $1400 price level or back up into the trading range in 3 months time?

 

Has the squid won?

[notinformation]

http://goldtrends.net/FreeDailyBlog?mode=PostView&bmi=1267250

 

Surprise number two

 

Then a bombshell was released from news sources. It was reported that Cyprus would have to sell 400 million Euro’s of gold as part of the bailout package of raising money for their failed banking system. Gold prices came down to 1550 on the news and the day passed by. Even though Cyprus bankers tell us the next day that they didn't discuss selling any gold, market jitters seemed to remain and Friday was just around the corner. This was strike two.

 

Now we need a strike three and you’re out. Gold is a nervous market to begin with as a lot of people have already lost a lot of money in the last six months.

With Gold at 1550, all that is needed for the market to drop is to get one more push where all the stops are (just below the 2 year low of 1525).

 

The selling began in the Friday sessions overseas. By time we got to the New York COMEX gold open, the price was down to 1542. Now all the players are there and the volume and liquidity is there to create the final blow to the market.

 

And then the attack began. Wave after wave of selling until gold got to 1525. Then they break down the price below the two year low and all the stops that have been accumulating there start getting tripped up and the selling accelerates as it begins to feed on itself. The physical market for gold sees this as a gift and gets ready to make their move and buy up the gold.

 

Now comes the part that is pure genius or a total coincidental thing that just so happens to be a gift to those who are short the market and those who would be responsible to deliver gold should the inventory deplete.

 

ALL OF A SUDDEN THE LONDON PHYSICAL PLATFORM THAT BUYS AND SELLS PHYSICAL GOLD GETS LOCKED UP. THE SYSTEM FREEZES.

 

The screens all freeze.

 

What does that mean?

 

No one can get to the physical market to buy at these low prices but at the same time, they can’t sell or protect their position either. The system is frozen. Yes, just like at Bit-coin. The system locks up. And of course the results are going to be the same, just on a lower percentage level.

 

What can the physical holders do?

 

Meanwhile the futures market continues to drop.

 

So what happens? The physical market holders begin to panic. How can they protect themselves as they can’t sell either?

 

What would I do if I were in that situation?

 

There is only one solution, especially during a panic. Short and ask questions later.

 

Therefore it is my speculation that based on 350,000 contracts sold on Friday and the massive drop, some of those contracts was the physical market having no choice but to enter into the futures markets and in order to hedge their physical position holdings, sell contracts or short the market. It’s either that or wait until Monday and be subject to potentially heavy losses should margin calls go out over the weekend. With no time to think and survival instinct kicking in, the physical holders most likely did what they could to protect themselves. They went in and shorted the futures market.

 

From there the market goes into a free fall as the physical market can’t buy at these low prices because the computer system is down; they can only sell futures to hedge their long physical holdings and so they do what they have to and begin selling futures.

 

Now it gets worse. As the price drops even more, underfunded players are getting wiped out and now they begin to liquidate. The market goes into a total collapse as all the stops below 1500 get tripped up and the market tanks to 1490.

 

The market finally closes in New York and returns to the 1500 area.

 

But it’s not over. There's another situation going on. The weekend is arriving and players begin wondering about margin calls? How are holders going to get money to their brokers over the weekend for the Monday trade session?

But there is not enough liquidity as the COMEX has closed and only the aftermarket GLOBEX is there to execute trades.

 

But guess what folks?

 

The banks and brokers are open all weekend and as long as it takes to go through all the accounts and issue all the MARGIN calls.

 

If they get the margin calls out by Saturday, the customers have 24 hours to get more money to their brokers. If the money is not received by Sunday night or Monday morning, the positions will have to be liquidated, just when the market is at its lowest liquidity and the longs have had all weekend to think about it and the media has had time to tell everyone that the bull market in gold is over.

 

Not only that but the shorts know exactly what is about to transpire.

 

I hope you got the picture on how the control boyz forced a major sell off. I speculate the panic over low gold inventory had someone hatch a plan to save their accounts and a lot that is at stake.

[G0ldfinger]

Do not fear!

 

At $0.01/oz, I will put a floor under this baby, buying the entire world supply! Mwahahahah.

[Perishabull]

Different perspectives on gold;

 

Volume profile and Linear Regression

 

3 year continuous futures with volume profile;

 

The light blue shown on this chart is volume profile. That is showing the volume of trade at each price level (as opposed to volume of trade per day shown at the bottom). The horizontal line emerging from the light blue and running the whole way accross the chart shows the price level over the last 3 years where most volume transacted - $1661.60.

 

The volume profile shows the amount of trade at each price level over the last 3 years. So at $1450 you can see the volume of trade was very low indeed (just below the blue line beneath 'LESS TRADE', and as you look at higher prices, the volume has steadily increased at each price level.

 

Gold has recently sold off very sharply from around $1550 to $1476.10 where it sits now. So as the price moved lower and lower from $1550 to $1476.10, the price moved deeper into price levels where trade volume was less and less. That may partly explain why the move lower was so sharp, certainly if there was some manipluation it's clear from this chart that the price would be particularly vulnerable at the $1550 level.

 

So I would certainly expect to see gold move down and through $1450 (trade volume historically low at that level)

 

You can see below the 'SOLID TRADE BELOW HERE' line there is a sizeable and consistent block of volume. in other words there was a lot of gold traded between $1430 and $1350.

 

So based on this I would be looking for gold to move down to $1430 and then be met with solid support.

 

 

This next chart is 5 year and shows the 'air pocket' in terms of lack of volume more clearly.

 

 

At the left axis of the chart just above the blue line there is very little volume. This very low volume region is $1450 to $1500.

 

 

This 5 year chart shows gold (in log) with Linear Regression lines

 

 

These help to provide longer term context (see explanation below). The lowest trendline represents 3 standard deviations from the mean and is currently at $1432, so if gold were at that level today it would be 3 standard deviations from the average price over the last 5 years. Over any period price can only exceed 3 standard deviations for 0.3% of the period covered. You can see that when gold topped in 2011 it spent very little time above the upper 3 standard deviation line.

 

Interestingly looking at it from this perspective confirms the analysis of the volume profile aspect (that price could go to $1430 but then be met with very strong buying).

 

Of course by its very nature Linear Regression is constantly moving, albeit it's slower over longer periods like this, but what this does show is that we are nearing an extreme.

 

 

The channel lines are Linear Regression channel trendlines. These section off price action to show extremes in price action. When the price is at the far upper or lower line it can be said to be 3 standard deviations from the mean price covering the period concerned. What I've also set it to show is the 95.4% line, 2 standard deviations from the mean price. So if price is at the upper or lower 95.4% line you can say it's at a price extreme that has only been seen 4.6% of the time during the period covered, two standard deviations from the mean price.

 

I also show the 68.3% lines, that's those lines closer to the median line of the channel. The reason for this is because I want to section of the trend channel in the same way as a bell curve distribution, so that I can easily see areas where the price is 1, 2 or 3 standard deviations from the mean price.

 

 

 

[Perishabull]

Peter Campbell of M3 Financial Sense - his take;

 

[Perishabull]

The ratio of GLD to SPX over the last few years;

 

 

The last time the ratio was at 0.09, (GLD was 9% of SPX) was August 2009. The ratio turned higher and gold embarked on a multi year rally.

 

The ratio of GLD to SPX is back at that 0.09 level now.

 

GLD in blue

[cranberryDog46]

what motivation is there to buy gold if people perceive their capital will be protected and they can get yield in stocks?

[Perishabull]

what motivation is there to buy gold if people perceive their capital will be protected and they can get yield in stocks?

 

Cyprus

[cranberryDog46]

aren't people also protected from a Cyprus event if their money is in the S&P?

 

The S&P seems to be where TPTB want you to have your money, isn't buying/holding gold now just pissing into the wind?

[Perishabull]

aren't people also protected from a Cyprus event if their money is in the S&P?

 

The S&P seems to be where TPTB want you to have your money, isn't buying/holding gold now just pissing into the wind?

 

I see Cyprus as a signal of a general trend where property rights and the rule of law are gradually being eroded. Cyprus is good example but if things get really bad capital controls could come into play in other countries. That would have been unthinkable many years ago, so who knows, down the line governments could raid other types of private property/assets, pension holdings, brokerage accounts. Some of those types of assets where there are plenty of records showing who holds what etc.

 

Do you think buying gold is pissing into the wind? Do you think it's finished now?

[cranberryDog46]

I think there are two sets of forces of play both a result of the decline and fall of the American Dollar Empire.

 

The first set of forces I see as bearish for gold - this is the American determination to maintain & possibly grow the price of the S&P through money printing and asset purchases.

 

The second set of forces I see as bullish for gold - this is the determination of the BRICS nations to end the dollars status as global reserve and the buying of gold by central banks.

 

However, as the BRICS nations hold much of their wealth in the dollar they would seem to be in a bit of a Catch 22.

 

 

My fear is that the bearish forces could dominate over at least the next ten years and we could be entering a period of price decline for gold. Empires can take many decades to die.

[notinformation]

is alf still right

 

http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/04/14/gold-confidence-shaken/

 

In January this year I published an article indicating that there seemed to be a reasonable chance that the long gold correction was over. That article indicated that if gold dropped below $1636, that the analysis was incorrect and that something else was happening. Gold did drop below $1636 and has continued to decline, proving that the January analysis was faulty.

At that time last January I had assumed that the rise from $1540 to $1790 in 2012 was the first upleg of the new bull market and that the correction to $1636 was the first minor correction of the new bull market. These were incorrect assumptions. The big correction from $1900 in September 2011 was still under way. The low had still to be reached.

In my Keynote speech to the Sydney Gold Symposium in 2011 I had a target of $1480 for the low of the expected correction. Despite several plunges into the low $1500’s, the price never achieved that $1480 target. The low price for Comex was $1523 and the lowest PM fixing was $1531 in late December 2011.

It bothered me from time to time that gold had not achieved my target. Now the late Friday selloff last week has driven the gold price to a closing level of $1477, finally reaching the target of $1480 set 19 months ago. What remains to be seen is whether this target holds and that the bull market resumes. The coming weeks should indicate what is happening.

[giantbat]

What is unsettling is that manipulation or not serious technical damage has been wrought on the metals in the face of apparent high physical demand.

 

Holding gold is fighting the fed. Things are getting serious now and volatility is probably going to worsen. Scary but exciting times! Here is hoping that equities dont roll over immediately or we know the whole sham is orchestrated.

 

gb

 

ps. i have created a goldbu.gs style (well far more basic) at: http://ingots.eu all welcome