GOLD

[drbubb]

No better time to buy then?

ML

 

Unless Sentiment goes even further off the charts

[Perishabull]

This is from Bespoke Investment Group;

 

I think Bubb alluded to this on his diary.

 

 

http://www.bespokein...-on-record.html

 

"The price of gold is currently trading more than 4.5 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average, which clocks in at the most oversold reading since at least 1975. The chart below shows the daily overbought/oversold reading for gold based on the number of standard deviations it traded above or below its 50-day moving average. As shown, there have not been very many occurrences where the commodity traded more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average. In fact, there have only been ten."

 

[Perishabull]

Very interesting interview with Andrew Maguire on Kingworldnews.com where he's suggesting the London Bullion Market Association were on the cusp of a default;

 

 

 

Maguire: “Gold and silver only have this type of selling when there are extreme shortages of the physical metal. I am totally aware that before this takedown occurred there was an imminent LBMA default.

 

We had already seen COMEX inventories plunging. In 90 days COMEX inventories saw an incredible decline. So immediately available physical gold was disappearing. People around the world don’t understand what has been happening since Cyprus...."

 

 

“Entities went to the LBMA and said, ‘We don’t trust anybody anymore. We want our physical metal.’ They were told they would be cash settled instead by a bullion bank. The Western governments have been trying to plug holes, and the reason for it has to do with the default that was taking place at the LBMA.

 

This is why this smash has been orchestrated because of the run that has been taking place on physical metal. So Western governments had to do this because of an imminent run on the unallocated LBMA system. The LBMA bullion banks had become so mismatched at one point on their trading positions vs real world demand that they had to orchestrate this smash.

 

This orchestrated smash in gold and silver was nothing short of a bailout for the bullion banks. So there is a run on physical gold that is taking place and the Ponzi scheme the West is running is being threatened because of it.”

 

Maguire also added: “We are nearing the end of this decline. Physical demand is already beginning to catch up with leveraged paper. If gold were to trade into the low $1,300s it would be unsustainable for very long.”

 

 

 

 

This guy's very experienced in the precious metals sector and he's suggesting low $1,300s is the low.

[drbubb]

MORGAN STANLEY: The Pillars Of Gold Are Crumbling

 

Business Insider-by Sam Ro-2 hours ago

We trace the origins of the short sale assault to the 10% reduction in CME margins for gold futures contracts that took place in November 2012.

[Manual labourer]

Unless Sentiment goes even further off the charts

 

I would rather buy gold at its most oversold position than its most overbought in the last fifty years!!!!

 

I am not saying the bottom is in but it is a far better place TO BUY than back at $1850?

 

ML

 

"The price of gold is currently trading more than 4.5 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average, which clocks in at the most oversold reading since at least 1975. The chart below shows the daily overbought/oversold reading for gold based on the number of standard deviations it traded above or below its 50-day moving average. As shown, there have not been very many occurrences where the commodity traded more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average. In fact, there have only been ten."

[drbubb]

Sure

I agree with that

But a retest on light volume, if we see that - might be an even better buying opportunity

[Manual labourer]

Sure

I agree with that

But a retest on light volume, if we see that - might be an even better buying opportunity

 

i think we are singing from the same Hymm Sheet, a nice Doji is forming the daily chart, and we are sitting at an old support of 2011!

 

Though I wouldn't liquidate here I wouldn't be shocked to see another run to fill up the long contract orders ?

 

I do see this as a good buying op!

 

ML

[drbubb]

Where did the "Missing" Gold come from?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_u2wkW4tYEg

 

In the past 30 years, the US has exported 4,500 Tons* of Gold - that cannot be accounted for

 

From an "official source"?

Ah, but when they account for that Gold, it may be on the balance sheet "in a single line" as inventory

 

== ==

*That's 1.8 years of Gold production

 

"A move designed to shake out the weak hands." ?

"Very shortly a big buying opportunity.... Well, thank you!"

[Perishabull]

From Streettalk live;

 

 

 

From Gold's peak at $1923 to it's low so far of $1321 is a 31.3% move lower, it took 1 year 7 months from high to low.

 

From Silver's peak in April 2011 at $49.82 to it's immediate low 12 days later at $33.03 was a 33.7% move.

[electroweak]

Manual labourer, on 16 April 2013 - 08:07 AM, said: This maybe way off the mark, however having given this a little thought, the only time I have seen a sustained selling like the last two days with unrelenting volume,was when Jérôme Kerviel (rouge trader4.9bn) trades where unwound in the S+P over a couple of days. It could be a rogue trader has been caught at the top of the market on the wrong side ?

 

Regards

 

ML

 

That rogue trader is Shinzo Abe, imo.

JPY Must not depreciate vs. gold after Abenomics implemented.

(thoughts?)

 

Replying to myself here, but there was an interesting "Bear Raid" at 01:00 GMT/02:00 BST last night. This is very unusual, and may lend weight to the thesis that the Japanese are involved.

[klogger]

Jim Willie in this interview is claimng that there is a significant disconnect in the physical price and the paper price for sales of more than a tonne where the price is between $2000-$2500. He says that people who do not have that much to sell are stuck with the paper price added into the physical price which result in the current ~$1350 price due to the comex being flooded with paper metals.

[Manual labourer]

Replying to myself here, but there was an interesting "Bear Raid" at 01:00 GMT/02:00 BST last night. This is very unusual, and may lend weight to the thesis that the Japanese are involved.

 

Quite possible ?

 

My worry here is the lack of volume on the daily chart for the up move over the last three days.

 

Another hard push down wouldn't find much resistance.

 

I suspect we will see a retest of the recent low this Friday when the paper contract buyers wont be be wanting to hold over the weekend!

 

Whoever is hitting it hard has done a very good job .

 

The bounce in price so far has been weak

 

Regards

 

ML

[Errol]

Another excellent piece from Detlev Schlichter: Gold sell-off: There is only one question that matters

http://detlevschlich...n-that-matters/

 

I like this bit:

 

If the gold market knows that easy money is about to end, how come the other markets haven’t got the news yet? Do we really believe that stocks would be trading at or near all-time highs, the bonds of fiscally challenged nations and of small-fry corporations would be trading at record low yields, if the end of easy money was around the corner?

 

To justified the lofty valuations of these markets on fundamentals, one would have to assume that they no longer benefit from cheap money but instead have again become the efficient-market-hypothesis’ disinterested, objective, reliable, and forward-looking barometers of our economic future, and of a bright future indeed, in which apparently all our problems – cyclical, structural, fiscal, demographic- have now been solved, so that the central bankers can pack up the emergency tool kit and gold can be sent to the museum. – Well, good luck with that.

[Errol]

Excellent feature on recent gold moves on Newsnight. Max Keiser on top form!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHBTdi7rn28

[Perishabull]

Excellent feature on recent gold moves on Newsnight. Max Keiser on top form!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHBTdi7rn28

 

Jeremy Paxman wasn't too keen on gold was he. I don't remember debates on prime time TV when gold was topping...

[Perishabull]

Goldman (gods work) Sachs advised to stay short and move stops to $1400.

 

 

 

BANG and the stops are gone.

 

Who would be dumb enough to listen to that, clearly some people were.

[notinformation]

http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2013/04/19/chinese-gold-silver-exchange-society-runs-out-of-gold-importing-from-switzerland-and-london/

 

Hong Kong’s Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has been in operations for over a century, and it’s President Haywood Cheung was interviewed by Bloomberg news earlier today. Whoever orchestrated the attack on gold and silver in the last week or so has gravely miscalculated, since the response to the drop has been surging demand for physical gold and silver. While I tend to be skeptical when I hear about silver shortages since these reports have been so exaggerated in the past, the lack of silver coin availability and premiums are the most extreme I have seen since the financial and economic meltdown of 2008. Now we discover that the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society has essentially sold out of gold bullion, and must wait until Wednesday for shipments to arrive from Switzerland and London.

[notinformation]

there are a two kinds of people in the world - those holding paper and those holding real assets

 

would tuco be digging for bitcoins or paper money

 

[Vicarious]

So a lot of talk about physical here, just wondering how people are feeling who are holding the miners, though I guess people might not want to talk about their losses??

 

I've been pretty defensive trying to target producers with low costs and I'm still hurting so can't imagine what people holding some juniors feel. Just noticed my first investment in black rock gold and general which I bought when gold was under $400 an ounce but have admittedly added to on dips is just about to tick into a loss. Really not sure what to do right now after reading this on fs by Pru Saxena who's opinion I've valued, calling the end of the bull market.

 

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/puru-saxena/buy-u-s-short-commodities

[Perishabull]

 

From a few days ago.

[Perishabull]

It rather looks as if GLD is experiencing a parabolic blow off top..........

 

 

............when measured in GDX

 

This chart is GLD / GDX. The point at which the price trajectory is heading 0° is 27th April and since price trajectory cannot go <0° this suggests to me gold miners will bottom within the next 5 trading days (if they haven't already)

[romans holiday]

So a lot of talk about physical here, just wondering how people are feeling who are holding the miners, though I guess people might not want to talk about their losses??

 

I've been pretty defensive trying to target producers with low costs and I'm still hurting so can't imagine what people holding some juniors feel. Just noticed my first investment in black rock gold and general which I bought when gold was under $400 an ounce but have admittedly added to on dips is just about to tick into a loss. Really not sure what to do right now after reading this on fs by Pru Saxena who's opinion I've valued, calling the end of the bull market.

 

http://www.financial...ort-commodities

 

Saxena has flip-flopped on gold in the past, and no doubt will do so again.

 

PS. No certainties.

[romans holiday]

It rather looks as if GLD is experiencing a parabolic blow off top..........

 

 

............when measured in GDX

 

This chart is GLD / GDX. The point at which the price trajectory is heading 0° is 27th April and since price trajectory cannot go <0° this suggests to me gold miners will bottom within the next 5 trading days (if they haven't already)

 

Would be more interesting to look at on the log chart. : )

[Perishabull]

Would be more interesting to look at on the log chart. : )

 

Here it is.

 

 

Well, it actually seems to fit better.

 

All the way back to 2009.

[cranberryDog46]

Jeremy Paxman wasn't too keen on gold was he. I don't remember debates on prime time TV when gold was topping...

 

looks like Keiser had already beaten the pro paper guy up before the show.