GOLD

[drbubb]

For those who do not read my Diary - here's a neat summary which shows the impact of Bernanke's statements last Wednesday:

 

REVERTING TO FORM, after a big loss of collective wealth

 

Jun --SPY-- : Chg : volume : --GLD-- : Chg : volume : x10.36 -- : --DXY-- --Chg- : --TLT- -Chg- : Posts cm'l/ Views : cum'l

18 : 165.74 : +1.30 : 96.8M: 132.13 : - 1.64 : 7.29 M : 1,368.9 : 80.661 +0.013 : 113.28 +0.06 : - 11 : 122 / : 201 : 2,489

19 : 163.45 : - 2.29 : 180.M: 130.59 : - 1.54 : 12.5 M : 1,352.9 : 81.325 +0.634 : 112.11 - 1.17 : - 08 : 130 / : 141 : 2,630

20 : 159.40 : - 4.05 : 291.M: 123.60 : - 6.99 : 28.7 M : 1,280.5 : 81.800 +0.465 : 110.27 - 1.84 : - 14 : 144 / : 334 : 2,964

21 : 159.07 : - 0.33 : 247.M: 125.05 : +1.45 : 16.5 M : 1,295.5 : 82.410 +0.668 : 108.41 - 1.87 : - 11 : 155 / : 237 : 3,201

24 : 157.06 : - 2.01 : 214.M: 123.93 : - 1.12 : 12.7 M : 1,283.9 : 82.434 +0.024 : 108.85 +0.45 : - 09 : 176 / : 425 : 4,188

25 : 158.58 : +1.52 : 153.M: 123.47 : - 0.48 : 9.29 M : 1,279.1 : 82.678 +0.244 : 107.88 - 0.97 : - 10 : 186 / : 437 : 4,625

== : ================= : =================== : =================== : ===========

chg: -$7.16 : -4.32% ==== : - $8.66 : -6.55% ===== : - $89.8= : +2.017 +2.50% : - 5.40 - 4.77% : +64 posts / : 2,336 hits

 

Markets seem to be reverting to their traditional trading relationships, after a big loss following Bernanke's statements.

The only winner was Cash Dollars (and puts) from the market gyrations of the last few days.

 

GLD / Gold showed the biggest loss in value ( -6.55%) since June 18th, while Bonds( -4.77%) and Stocks (-4.32%) tailed behind. The drop in gold, was 2.62 times as large as the 2.50% gain in the US Dollar.

 

Yesterday, traditional changes got back in form, with Stocks rising (+ 0.97%), while Bonds fell (- 0.89%) and Gold fell (- 0.39%.) The smallish drop in GLD came on just 9.29 million shares, and I expect some short-covering to begin, because Gold is responding less to dollar strength (DXY was up +0.30% yesterday), and some Gold mining stocks were higher. The Gold miners often lead Gold in a bounce.

[Perishabull]

Gold - 5 years

 

 

How low can it go?

[notanewmember]

Gold - 5 years

 

 

 

How low can it go?

 

A reasonable target for a "shorter" would be the difference of the previous trading range.

 

OK so the trading range can be drawn as $1900 and $1550. That is $350.

 

SO $1550 - $350 is $1200 as a reasonable target. Would one go long here in a major way? No because it could bump around that level for a while.

[Van]

Just as we had a blow-off phase to $1920, so you can see from the chart that we're going through a capitulation phase.

 

I do not expect a straight and and down V bottom.

It needs to build a base. The MAs need to catch up and flatten out.

[Van]

Sheesh.

Down 3% in the last hour.

$1239 now.

 

There's no bottom on this thing.

[G0ldfinger]

Institutional liquidation - I think that this is an important point. You are a "weak hand" if you need to justify to others irrational things happening in the markets. That's how you become irrational yourself. So, the funds sell into the selling.

 

Fundamentally, the outlook for gold is better than ever. Bernanke's mumblings do not really matter long term. QE is here to stay and it will end in an inflationary catastrophe. But the markets are irrational to the max for now. If gold's behaviour is not enough to prove this, just look at the bond or general stock markets which are all in mega-bubble territory.

 

The damage of the current crisis, which started in 2007, is twofold:

 

(1) Economic damage that we see and feel in the streets. This is like a flood or an earthquake- you see it and feel it, so you react to it. Because it is easy to see and react to, it won't kill Joe Sixpack. This damage feels deflationary right now. This damage is what markets are reacting to right now.

 

(2) Monetary damage in the balance sheets of the central banks and banks. This is like a nuclear meltdown - you don't see it, neither do you smell or feel it. Because it is difficult to comprehend, you do not react to it (or way too slowly even if you have the intellectual means to comprehend it). But it is massive, and it will not go away. This is why Joe Sixpack will get killed by it in the end. This is the damage markets are ignoring right now.

 

Damage (2) is like gravity: it is there and it will win out in the end. Bernanke, Draghi and friends have proven that humanity can defy gravity for a while. No question that they are right on that. But any airplane needs to land in the end. Bernanke and friends have not built the landing strip yet - in fact, they don't even have a proper plan for a landing strip that will not damage the plane fatally.

 

So, that's why I am all in, and I will stick with it. Time is on my side. Oh, and I am not a short term trader.

 

Yves Lamoureux not quite ready to be bullish on gold just yet

 

 

[Oddjob]

Exciting to watch... How low can it go? Read a report in Feb that said that the worldwide average "all-in" cost for gold miners was $950.

[G0ldfinger]

If Hugh Hendry gets to buy at $660 in the end, I will have to hand it to him. To much stress for me to gamble like this though. Could have gone wrong in a major way, and we are not there yet and maybe never will get there.

[notanewmember]

Sheesh.

Down 3% in the last hour.

$1239 now.

 

There's no bottom on this thing.

I wish I kept my mouth shut! OR took that trade!

[Van]

G0ldfinger with all due respect you sound like someone who is married to their position.

[Van]

Seems like long time since I heard any of the gold bulls uttering anything about the magical ratio:

 

[notanewmember]

Seems like long time since I heard any of the gold bulls uttering anything about the magical ratio:

SNIP

 

Well, historically we have seen this reversal before:

 

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=9343&st=120#entry275024

 

^See the circled areas

 

I did ruffle up some charts of the Dow and gold in 1975 - but they have disappeared from the original post.

[notanewmember]

Roll up up, limited special offer on Wealth Insurance!

 

Well the silver lining in this cloud, is that to insure your wealth if you haven't already (the old adage, 10% of your net worth), just got cheaper.

[happy]

Well, historically we have seen this reversal before:

 

^See the circled areas

 

 

Nice chart.

[happy]

 

 

If we use this comparison, then it looks as though we would currently be somewhere in 1976. And for sake of further comparison:

 

[G0ldfinger]

G0ldfinger with all due respect you sound like someone who is married to their position.

 

Yes, and my wedding band is gold with palladium (no kidding).

 

As for DJIA:gold - sure, it's there and relevant and notanewmember is spot on with telling us that all of this has been there in 1974-76 and was actually more dramatic then. Given the size of the crisis and of the related delusion, it should be more dramatic now.

 

IMO, these are golden times in terms of loading up on bullion and quality shares. Given where silver is - call me Silverfinger!!

 

P.S.: For every seller since $1,900, there has been a buyer. This crisis has years to go. This is not an end-of-crisis gold plunge, this is a mid-term-the-bozos-are-selling kind of plunge.

[Outside Trader]

Gold is down by a third from its 2011 high, but I believe we should be thankful that the financial crisis is over. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LotCfM4VMtk

[Perishabull]

Yes, and my wedding band is gold with palladium (no kidding).

 

It should be SILVER mate, Wills and Kate tying the knot marked the ^TOP in silver.

 

 

 

Kim Il-Jong's death marked a _LOW in silver on December 2011.

 

 

Such is the LIFE in the precious metals market.

 

I'm seeking an event to signal the low in gold.

[LauraB]

Hi Guys

If anyone spots a central bank dumping its gold would they let me know please. Thank you.

[electroweak]

It should be SILVER mate, Wills and Kate tying the knot marked the ^TOP in silver.

 

 

 

Kim Il-Jong's death marked a _LOW in silver on December 2011.

 

 

Such is the LIFE in the precious metals market.

 

I'm seeking an event to signal the low in gold.

 

You might just get it...

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57591195/nelson-mandela-on-life-support/

Nelson Mandela is on life support.

 

Nice to hear from you, GF.

Sane commentary for insane times.

[romans holiday]

Gold - 5 years

 

 

How low can it go?

 

Interesting chart [even if linear]. A lot is usually made of the spike to 1900, but it was just a spike driven by the hottest money. So take the froth off the top, and the steady increase to the level of 1600 level looks more significant. From the 1600 level, we see an even greater spike down now to near 1200. So you'd have to think a retracement to 1600 is on the cards.

[drbubb]

On the Bottom of an important channel ??

 

(Thanks to Happy Charts):

Added some lines

 

Latest - Now much lower

GOLD : 1224.30

$CPI- : 231.83

Ratio : 5.28

(Seems to be on the bottom of the channel)

[Perishabull]

As you might expect, sentiment is very low right now;

[Member100]

wow.

now it is way lower than 2008-9.

how

low can it

go ?

[Outside Trader]

 

Moscow exchange launches first precious metals trading

 

Published time: June 27, 2013 12:49

 

 

Trading physical metals is expected to boost liquidity in the market and attract more participants.

The stock exchange is going to start trading gold and silver by the end of this year, and platinum and palladium in 2014.

 

Russia has so far only been trading futures on gold and silver, not dealing with real metals.

 

Gold has been occasionally sold on the over-the-counter market and the only benchmark for price was the Central bank’s quotations, Gazeta.ru reports. Now gold will get the market price in rubles.

 

“We are a gold-exporting country. We produce a large number of precious metals. However, the trade volume is still significantly lagging behind our peers. Our commodity market is not transparent," Gazeta.ru quotes the director of the commodity market of the Moscow exchange, Mikhail Orlenko.

 

Spot metal trading will be based on the platform of the existing foreign exchange market. Credit institutions licensed to conduct operations with precious metals and non-banking professional brokers will be the main players on the market, Gazeta,ru quotes the presentation by the bourse.

 

The Moscow stock exchange plans to transport precious metals from production companies, keep them in its own stores and deliver to the buyer the next day.

 

The launch of trading in gold and silver on the Moscow exchange will boost liquidity on the market and attract more participants by these new financial instruments, RBC quotes Sberbank as commenting.

 

 

http://rt.com/busine...ing-metals-326/