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I am not wedded to any of these lines, but I think the "easy part" of the rally in Dow-to-Gold may be ending

 

twzw.jpg

==== : High.pr : Dec.12
INDU : 16,174 : 15,739 :
Gold-: $1,210 : $1,225 :
Ratio : r 13.37 : r 12.85 :
3ntd.png
NOTE: The latest high (13.21) is higher than the late June high (12,56).
So the Ratio may have hit the top of the light green channel I drew in the top chart

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QEIII has been slated to end mid 2014, is gold going to trend lower until then?

 

I don't see US QE as the main driver of gold price, but its tapering could get money velocity up again...

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Latest from MA's blog:

 

 

QUESTION: Dear Sir,

are the following figures still valid. Will Gold fall to USD 950 per Ounce or is it more likely to build the low in the optimum range?

Thank you for the great audio-interview and your support of the little guy!

T

ANSWER: Yes. The timing is 2014 as the optimal target. However, we could see a cycle inversion pushing the sideways to lower trend into its final low in 2015 and then rally as the ECM declines. This will be laid out in the coming report. But it is ALWAYS a question ofTIME and PRICE. Keep in mind that NOTHING trades in a vacuum. This is like a ballet and every step and every dancer has to be in their place to pull off the great performance.

As far as the low is concern, the price can be between 1050 and 850. It is more WHEN the price is reached rather than the express actual number. BOTH have to be achieved. If we saw $950 tomorrow, sorry, that would not be the low because the time is not right.

 

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/15/time-price/

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I see. So basically his fancy computer is about as knowledgeable as anyones, but he sells it/tells it well. <_<

 

2014 as the optimal target. However, we could see a cycle inversion pushing the sideways to lower trend into its final low in 2015 and then rally as the ECM declines. This will be laid out in the coming report. But it is ALWAYS a question ofTIME and PRICE. Keep in mind that NOTHING trades in a vacuum. This is like a ballet and every step and every dancer has to be in their place to pull off the great performance.

As far as the low is concern, the price can be between 1050 and 850. It is more WHEN the price is reached rather than the express actual number. BOTH have to be achieved. If we saw $950 tomorrow, sorry, that would not be the low because the time is not right.

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My explanation may not be satisfactory to you : But is simple enough...

 

Since at least Feb. 2013 being LONG GOLD was the wrong side of the momentum trade.

A big highlight was when GLD broke below the 480 day MA on Feb. 11th, 2013 .

And that break was confirmed in Mar.12th when the 76d-MA broke the 480d-MA... update

 

264k.gif

 

I chroniciled the importance of that 480 day / 100 week MA in an interview with Dominic Frisby on Feb. 7th, 2013:
mjhnew1b.jpg
"Hampton makes the case that the gold price is currently marking a low in its long-term bull run. While there is a chance that the trend channel could be broken to the downside, the odds favour a continuation of the upward trend..."
(I was wrong about the upside being more likely. The downside break proved very important.)

 

(Jump to: xx mins)

I Don't think I was the only one tracking this MA. 100 weeks is a pretty obvious period to watch.

A break of it, gave Goldman the ammunition it needed to spook the market into pushing Gold through the

possible Double Bottom a month later on April 12th, 2013. Momentum traders in Hedge Funds are

influenced more by these trends-in-place than they are by fundamental arguments.

 

Over the last 11 1/2 months, GLD has shed a great deal of Gold :

 

==DATE==: Gold price : GLD-pr.: Ratio : Tonnes: Ounces Held :
08/22/2011 : $1,877.50 : $184.59 : 10.17 :
12/30/2011 : $1,574.50 : $151.99 : 10.36 :
12/31/2012 : $1,664.00 : $162.02 : 10.27 : 1,351.0 : 43.44 Million
12/11/2013 : $1,254.10 : $120.86 : 10.38 : 833.61 :: 26.80 Million
=========
2013 Chg.-- : $0,409.90 : $041.16 : 09.96 : 517.39 :: 16.64 Million /9.33
----- Pct.Chg.: -- 24.63% : -25.40% : ==== : - 55.45 :: 1.78 Million oz.
----- per mo. : -- $43.93 : --- $4.41 : 09.96 :
Keep in mind that annual production of Gold is about 86 Million ounces, or 7.1 million oz./month.
So GLD's shedding of an average of 1.78 per month is about 25% of global production.

 

Through 2013, China has kept buying, enjoying the lower prices. In effect, they have hovered up all the Gold sold by GLD.

(The buying happened mainly through Hong Kong, and so it was tracked.) China also bought virtually the whole of its own production of 403 mt (= 13 million oz.) The combined total of these two buying streams is about 34 Million oz. or 40% of World production.

That shows a strong hunger by China to own gold.

No, no, no... what meant was can you comment on the disparity between GLD (now -40% YTD in holdings), and the gold price reduction (-20% YTD) -- since GLD is supposed to mirror the gold price and its NAV should be related to the holdings which simply mirror the price. This clearly has not happened.

 

My suspicion was/is that GLD is used like a "flywheel" by the "Authorized Participants". Those same AP's can redeem gold bars whilst denying other large holders the ability to withdraw; cashing them out instead, and using the gold bars to re-refine and arbitrage with China for a nice little backwardation premium??

 

Now Jesse is at it too:

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_17.html

"I do not have enough facts to be sure, but one might suspect that the bullion banks are using some of the ETFs, as well as leased central bank gold, as their bullion ATMs in support of the great shell game that is the Western pricing of the precious metals."

 

As I said, I don't trust these vehicles to do their job in the event of a crisis, so I don't bother looking into them much. However, I know it is one of your preferred choices and I would be surprosed if you had not done DD on the GLD ETF.

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Say a "constructive" prayer - if you know one

 

GLD / Gold ... update

 

i7j.gif

 

I want to see a rapid upturn in Gold prices - and today would be the ideal time of it

=

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Fundamentally there's every reason to be a permabull in gold, but that doesn't reflect the real world. People don't always make the right logical decisions, there are other influences. Having said that, what perplexes me is how the price can decline for 2 years and yet inventory levels are so low. I think it shows the gold market doesn't reflect the underlying commodity any more, it's more about the wallstreet casino than hedging genuine production and that sort of mentality is exactly what put the financial world in it's current predicament.

 

The western economies must go back to manufacturing, where real things have real value. Trading is just educated gambling, it's distorting all of the markets everywhere. I think history will look back at precisely now and label western governments naive for sending all of the western gold east, in exchange for paper promises that we all know are going up in smoke. Countries were invaded for gold in times gone by and now we vilify gold in a brazen effort to promote fiat currencies. What madness...

 

BTW - I think the (double) bottom is in.

 

 

Sure wish I had better... Underestimating the banksters and too much reading of KWN, maybe!

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Interesting to see such a big Comex drawdown while GLD's holdings have also fallen so far:

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=18018

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No, no, no... what meant was can you comment on the disparity between GLD (now -40% YTD in holdings), and the gold price reduction (-20% YTD) -- since GLD is supposed to mirror the gold price and its NAV should be related to the holdings which simply mirror the price. This clearly has not happened.

. . .

As I said, I don't trust these vehicles to do their job in the event of a crisis, so I don't bother looking into them much. However, I know it is one of your preferred choices and I would be surprosed if you had not done DD on the GLD ETF.

 

I have used Calls on GLD, and Spreads on GLD - rather than GLD itself.

They have worked well for their purpose

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MORE INTERESTING, More useful ?

 

vfy2.jpg

 

You really must LISTEN to Dom's reading of chapter-1 (see above) - It is very easy to follow, and I love the little bit he reads with a Cuban accent - why a Cuban father wants his daughter to be a hinatera. The Chapter will also give a good idea of the themes he developed in the book.

 

One of the books themes that struck me, and I mentioned in the interview, was a section he did about the history of currencies - looking at the Pound Sterling in particular, which has a history of about 1,000 years - which makes it the most successful state-sponsored currency in mankind's history.

 

qv66.jpg

> source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/charting-price-gold-all-way-back-1265

 

I liked the story from the book about Newton's involvement in the successful 1696 currency reboot:

 

"The Great Re-Coinage": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Recoinage_of_1696

 

 

That is my intent, in doing an extensive editing and re-write of this existing thread:

 

Dr Bubb interviews DF (about his book: LIFE After The State)

> Link: http://tinyurl.com/LIFE-ATS

 

It is the one with my interview of Dominic Frisby about his book, LIFE AFTER the State.

 

And I have tried to draw some meaningful connections between The Book, 1,000 years of Sterling, Newton, and Bitcoins

 

Hey, why not JOIN the discussion ?

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DON'T MISS : the Favorite Gold Charts thread : http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Gold

 

Chart #8

=======

Think that chart above was long term?

Here are Long Term Gold prices - in Pounds Sterling: ... clean version

 

q36z.jpg

> source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/charting-price-gold-all-way-back-1265

 

It looks like we are headed back into a period of extreme volatility.

How long will it last? Decades, maybe?

 

Gold-in-Pounds DID keep flying in 2011, and eventually hit over GBP 1,200 per ounce.

A 38.2% retracement from #1,200 would take it to GBP 750 /oz. - and we have seen that !

 

Here's Gold-in-FXB (etf for Sterling): GBP 748 per Ounce : $1,210 / $161.8 (ie $1.618)

 

rk03.png

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China gold chief confirms gold price suppression by U.S.

Submitted by cpowell on 07:14AM ET Thursday, January 2, 2014. Section: Daily Dispatches
10:14a ET Thursday, January 2, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold price suppression is U.S. government policy to maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the ongoing international currency war, the president of China's gold mining association, Sun Zhaoxue, told a financial conference in Shanghai last June.

Sun's remarks were disclosed today by gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen, who obtained them from a rough transcription provided by the SINA Financial news service.

Jansen prefaces Sun's remarks with some incisive observations of his own about whether there is manipulation of the gold market and, if so, who is responsible for it. Jansen describes himself as a believer in "conspiracy facts," since, he writes, when money and power are at stake, people conspire.

While gold price suppression can hardly be addressed by mainstream financial news organizations in the West, for years it has been a fairly common topic in the government-controlled news media in China, and Chinese news reports about gold price suppression by the United States have even been cabled back to the U.S. State Department in Washington by the U.S. embassy in Beijing:

http://www.gata.org/node/10380

http://www.gata.org/node/10416

http://www.gata.org/node/12917

That would make the West's mainstream financial news media seem even more government-controlled than China's.

Jansen's commentary and account of Sun's speech are posted at Jansen's Internet site, In Gold We Trust, here:



CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

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Some Elliott wave guys think a Low has been made

 

 

Chart #9

=======

Has gold just done a double bottom?

 

(I received this Gold-Ewave chart by email prior to Christmas, and now have permission to post it on GEI):

 

4ppc.png

 

/source- Geoff-Sutton : larger version

 

See (above) for a weekly chart of gold. The reason I am sending it is that Gold may have just done a truncated Wave 5 which has also produced a double bottom.

If 5 to A is Wave 1, it lasted 16 weeks and if D to E finished on Thursday and is a Wave 5, then that move was also 16 weeks in duration so they are equal in time.

Projecting Wave 1 onto point D, the 0.618 extension of Wave 1 is 1187.9 and gold made a low on Thursday evening of 1186.9. I am sure there are plenty of alternative interpretations, but it is a possibility that we have just had a double bottom. If it holds at this level, then presumably we have the Chinese to thank. Of course, if the price moves below Thursday’s low and then 1180, then this interpretation goes out the window.

 

=

(2)

gold06jan14daily.png

 

(3)

Tony Caldaro thinks we may have just seen the "A" wave of an A-B-C down - with Primary B to come ?

===

>Tony-C: http://caldaro.wordp...d-then-and-now/

. We have a completed Major A @ $1524, a completed Major B @ $1798, and potentially a completed Major C @ $1181 at the December low. Should this be correct we could now witness a 38.2% retracement of the entire first decline, ($1924-$1179), into the $1460 area over the next 3-8 months. This would represent a $280 rise. Which is also similar to the $220+ rises of Primary B and Primary X during the last bear market. “History often repeats, but is never exactly the same.”

You can follow Gold along with us using this link:

http://stockcharts.c...269446/tenpp/10.

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And other EWers see gold down to 500, 300 maybe 100!!

 

https://www.neowave.com/audiointerviews/20130801/transcript.pdf

 

© 2013 Glenn Neely, NEoWave, Inc.
www.NEoWave.com
Page
6
of
15

500 is almost certain. Possibly down
into the $300 range is possible. It may be 200, and$100 is the outsidechance. But I think we can easily count on it getting down to$500,
no matter what the bigger picture is

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