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And other EWers see gold down to 500, 300 maybe 100!!

 

https://www.neowave.com/audiointerviews/20130801/transcript.pdf

 

© 2013 Glenn Neely, NEoWave, Inc.
www.NEoWave.com
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500 is almost certain. Possibly down
into the $300 range is possible. It may be 200, and$100 is the outsidechance. But I think we can easily count on it getting down to$500,
no matter what the bigger picture is

 

 

Yeah, those crazy EW'ers.

 

Clowns like Bob Prectner were calling the SPX top and forecasting a 90% wipeout at 1100 3-4 years ago.

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Ahhh ... Bob Pretcher .... Harry Dent's greatest rival for the title of world's best contrarian indicator ....

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Interesting. So the amount they offiially have left would fit in the boot of a small hatchback. Not sure you'd be able to drive away, though :)

 

Need to read their terms of reference. Are they compelled to restock? If so, from leases that can be unwould as a force majeure? Open market? Or just 'default' and settle in cash?

 

Edit: Make Ire != majeure (although it is a prescient auto-correct!)

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Interesting. So the amount they offiially have left would fit in the boot of a small hatchback. Not sure you'd be able to drive away, though :)

 

Need to read their terms of reference. Are they compelled to restock? If so, from leases that can be unwould as a force majeure? Open market? Or just 'default' and settle in cash?

 

Edit: Make Ire != majeure (although it is a prescient auto-correct!)

 

Rule 538: Exchange For Related Physical:

http://www.cmegroup.com/rulebook/files/RA1006-5.pdf

 

 

 

Rule 538
(“Exchange for Related Positions”)
The following transactions shall be permitted by arrangement between parties in accordance with the requirements of this rule:
Exchange for Physical (“EFP”)
-
A privately negotiated and simultaneous exchange of an Exchange futures position for a corresponding cash position

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Precious Metals Manipulation Worse Than Libor Scandal, German Regulator Says

 

It may be time to shift yet another conspiracy "theory" into the "fact" bin, thanks to Elke Koenig, the president of Germany's top financial regulator, Bafin, which apparently is not as corrupt, complicit and clueless as its US equivalent, and who said that in addition to currency rates, manipulation of precious metals "is worse than the Libor-rigging scandal."

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-16/precious-metals-manipulation-worse-libor-german-regulator-says

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Right time to get back "in the water" ?

 

 

According to a famous trader of the past, W. D. Gann: “Time is more important (in markets), than price; when time is up, price will reverse.”
It has now been 29 months since gold last reached a new high in its current bull market cycle. The downtrend lasted 22 months (top to bottom), having bottomed on June 28 2013 at $1180. Confirmation of the bottom came on Dec 31 when gold briefly touched $1182, and left behind a double bottom, see chart #3.
There have been two other corrections that lasted 6 months or more, from top to bottom: In 2006 gold declined for 6 months, and in 2008 the pullback took 8 months to bottom.
Thus a 22 month down-cycle qualifies under the Gann definition as ‘time is up’.
Historical Life of Gold Stock Bear markets / source:
jordan_20140116_3.jpg

 

=

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Thanks for that.

 

Gold is starting to tempt me - as much for all the negative predictions out there as anything else.

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Haha _ yeah.

I got opportunity for some contrarian thinking.

 

(here's what so many have forgotten - from the Jim Turk thread):

 

I agree with that (I should have emphasised "attempt").

 

That doesn't mean that individuals cannot protect themselves (or even prosper) while all the currency debasement is going on. As Marc Faber keeps saying, they can print the money but they can't control where it ends up.

 

TRUE

I have been tracking that - I call in "Bernanke's Racetrack". Or now; "The Fed's Race track"

 

This chart starts when the SPY and GLD were at exactly the same level - you can see what happened since then:

 

The Fed's Racetrack ... update

 

fclk.gif

 

Note how; after Gold has its "blow-off", GLD went too high for the level of underlying inflation - as shown here by :

 

GLD / Gold versus CRB ,,, update

 

8ca.gif

 

GLD (and Gold shares too) corrected - and quite massively so - as money flowed into stocks, and out of Gold.

 

So you could say that, "The Fed got its way... once it was clear that inflation was not taking off."

 

(I think that Jim Turk, and other Gold Bugs, would do well to track the CRB and other inflation indices.

 

Perhaps we have learned that Gold may run into troubles, if it gets too far ahead of inflation.)

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-19/germany-has-recovered-paltry-5-tons-gold-ny-fed-after-one-year

 

Germany Has Recovered A Paltry 5 Tons Of Gold From The NY Fed After One YearOn December 24, we posted an update on Germany's gold repatriation process: a year after the Bundesbank announced its stunning decision, driven by Zero Hedge revelations, to repatriate 674 tons of gold from the New York Fed and the French Central Bank, it had managed to transfer a paltry 37 tons. This amount represents just 5% of the stated target, and was well below the 84 tons that the Bundesbank would need to transport each year to collect the 674 tons ratably over the 8 year interval between 2013 and 2020. The release of these numbers promptly angered Germans, and led to the rise of numerous allegations that the reason why the transfer is taking so long is that the gold simply is not in the possession of the offshore custodians, having been leased, or worse, sold without any formal or informal announcement. However, what will certainly not help mute "conspiracy theorists" is today's update from today's edition of Die Welt, in which we learn that only a tiny 5 tons of gold were sent from the NY Fed. The rest came from Paris.

 

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This is also just a fraction of the amount of gold which China imports every month.

 

Something does not add up.

 

I am getting very tempted to go down to the bank and buy a few more maple leafs.

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The China Gold import figure is huge... and may or may not fall

 

This is also just a fraction of the amount of gold which China imports every month.

 

 

Chinese gold imports may fall as buying frenzy calms

20 Jan 2014

Chinese gold imports, the lone bright spot in an otherwise disastrous year for bullion in 2013, look set to fall from last year's record levels, adding to pressure on gold as analysts forecast a price decline for a second year.

But any drop-off in Chinese demand is likely to be limited by gold's 28 percent price-plunge in 2013, which has kept retail buyer interest high in the world's biggest bullion consumer, even as large investors scour for greater returns elsewhere.

 

(Read more: China gold consumption set to cool in 2014)

 

Chinese investors rushed to buy gold last year, particularly after a price plunge in April that drew queues of mom and pop buyers looking for a bargain.

In the first 11 months of 2013, Chinese imports more than doubled to 1,060 tons, based on the most recent data, making up about a third of global purchases.

 

100665276-113280199.530x298.jpg?v=136673
Getty Images

But China's gold imports from Hong Kong - the only official data available - could fall in 2014, four analysts said, with three of them pegging a decline of at least 10 percent. Another saw imports at around the same level as a year ago.

==

> http://www.cnbc.com/id/101349707

 

1,060 tons - are a very big slice of Annual Gold production:

 

1.png

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Thanks for posting the links to the two CNBC articles but they have to be two of the worst pieces of journalistic rubbish I have read for a long time (well, today at least).

 

The first is close to being incoherent, waffling between quoting people who predict gold prices to go lower and people saying demand increased because of lower prices. Nowhere does it attempt to o any analysis and for the most part does not even explain why the people referred to might hold the views they give.

 

The second is better in parts (it identifies restocking as an issue and quotes from at least one of the banks licensed to import gold directly into China) but contains this classic lack of awareness of what is happening out there (including things which CNBC has itself reported on):

 

"But China's gold imports from Hong Kong - the only official data available - could fall in 2014, four analysts said, with three of them pegging a decline of at least 10 percent."

 

Given that China has now licensed ten banks to import gold directly (including the first two foreign banks) so that importers can bypass Hong Kong, a prediction that China's imports from Hong Kong "could" fall is a little short of the Sherlock Holmes league and tells us absolutely nothing about demand in China.

 

Needless to say, neither article wasted electrons on issues such as the decline in COMEX inventories, the decline in ETF holdings, the delays in repatriating Germany's gold, the impact of India's import restrictions (now followed by Pakistan - in fairness, this was after the articles were written) and, more recently, the increase in hedge funds making bullish wagers on the price of gold.

 

The observations posted by Dr Bubb and others on this thread are light years ahead of the journalistic efforts that went into those two articles.

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I was mainly seeking a source for the Raw Data.

Which I have now compiled here: (from the SPRD thread)

 

=

 

World gold production was reported or estimated at:
==== : Tonnes : Pct.Tot'l : Ounces : Year end
2010 : 2,560 mt : 1.51% : 80.0 mn : $1410.25
2011 : 2,700 mt : 1.59% : 84.4 mn : $1574.50
2012 : 2,861 mt : 1.68% : 89.4 mn : $1664.00
2013 : 2,920 mt : 1.72% : 91.3 mn : $1201.50
2014 : 3,000 mt : 1.76% : 93.8 mn :
==========
Tot'l : Total Gold, assumed to be 170,000 mt
In 2013, China imported Gold equal to about 36.3% of production - plus: China is now the largest Gold producer, producing about 400 tonnes p.a. Obviously, the imported gold includes some gold produced in prior years as well.

 

=

 

I really didn't pay much attention to the views they have on the Gold price.

 

My own views (which change) have been as accurate, and probably better than you will find in the press.

 

I use charts. They work pretty well. But I do think it is important to monitor what others are saying.

But i do nor expect them to call the Gold price moves accurately.

Who do you think has a worthwhile opinion on the Gold market?

I tend to like the chartists who pay attention to the fundamentals to put their chartist notions in a bigger context.

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As for the German Gold - I do think you have a very interesting issue there.

 

( as was described by Eric King on his Blog )

 

EXCERPT:

Embry: “Last week I said the tone in the gold market was changing, but subsequent to that we have had a number of events that assure me the tone is changing. One of them pertains to this revelation by the German regulator, Bafin, that the gold market is more rigged than the LIBOR market was....
“That comes as absolutely no surprise to me because I've known the gold market is massively rigged for over a decade. But to hear that come out of a person who is inside of the system is very, very significant. Then, when you put that into context with what’s happening with Germany and their gold it all makes a lot of sense.
The Germans own roughly 3,400 tons of gold, but most of it is at the New York Fed, Paris, and in London. Well, a little over a year ago they were getting pressure because the German citizens were on their back, so they asked for only 300 tons of gold stored at the New York Fed to be returned, and the rest from Paris.
The Germans were told they would not get that very small portion of the gold stored at the New York Fed back for 7 years. This was the first tipoff that something was wrong. Well, lo and behold, a year has passed and they’ve only gotten 37 tons back out of this massive amount of gold the Germans have held outside of the country, but only 5 tons was sent from the Fed -- 5 tons!
The Fed allegedly stores over 1,400 tons of gold for the Germans, and they only got 5 tons back in one year. If that doesn’t tell you that this German gold which is allegedly held at the Fed, as well as the other gold the Fed is supposedly storing for many foreign countries, hasn’t been leased, swapped, hypothecated, and rehypothecated, nothing does. So I think we are on the verge of something big happening in the gold market.
Right on the heels of that, Deutsche Bank dropped out of the London gold price fix. There are five entities that set the price each day, and after the German announcement that they received very little of their gold back from the Fed, Deutsche Bank drops out of the gold price fixing. So there is something major happening here.
===

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"Who do you think has a worthwhile opinion on the Gold market?"

 

Good question.

 

Off hand, I cannot think of anyone who has been consistently good on gold. Unfortunately, too many experts (including some who have made some very good observations) are always advising people to buy gold right now which makes me question their judgement. My much depreciated HK$0.02 worth is that its better to test ideas with a group of people who are are not in either the "gold is the only real currency" or "gold has no fundamentals and therefore no real value" camps than to be overly respectful of anyone (no matter how highly regarded).

 

FWIW, I am becoming a little more bullish on gold because:

 

1. the ability of banks to import directly into the PRC has the potential to enable more PRC investors to buy gold - in simple terms, more people in China will have access to gold distribution channels. As a matter of policy, I can see the PRC government encouraging this as a means of diverting money from both an over heated property market and away from shadow lending activities. Increased gold imports also have the effect of lowering China's trade surplus (gold is an imported commodity for these purposes) and effectively substitutes onshore gold for offshore USD securities (which is where the bulk of China's trade surplus ends up);

 

2. global demand has been partly suppressed by India imposing import restrictions (now joined by Pakistan) which may or may not have reduced Indian imports by eighty percent (less however much is being smuggled in through one means or another). At some point, there will be an element of catch up;

 

3. the pick up in demand for physical bars and coins when gold dropped below USD1,200 per oz was huge;

 

4. COMEX inventories continue to fall - this is not something that can continue for ever;

 

5. ETF holdings continue to fall - this cannot continue for ever;

 

6. unexplained delays in returning Germany's gold are a cause for concern;

 

7. current gold prices may be low enough to render some current and future production uneconomic.

 

On the bearish side:

 

8. gold has no fundamentals which can be analysed;

 

9. gold has few uses other than as a store of value (this is one reason why I prefer silver);

 

10. historically it can be argued that gold more or less provides no substantial real return and, if that is correct, it is (depending on where you start the analysis) trading above its long term trend;

 

11. the rise in nominal yields on debt securities increases the opportunity cost of holding gold;

 

12. the ready availability of unbacked paper gold products and the absence of restrictions on the creation and issuance of such products divert a lot of buying interest away from physical gold;

 

13. the buy-sell spreads on physical are very large;

 

14. there is a non-negligable risk of fake gold;

 

15. there is a risk of government confiscation which I view as being extremely low in Hong Kong (but devastating if it happens);

 

16. banks in Europe and the US are reducing their involvement in non-trade commodities businesses . While this is largely due to regulatory pressures making it more difficult and expensive for banks to take on the risks involved (i.e. it is not part of some conspiracy to manipulate the price of gold), the practical effect is to reduce the accessibility of gold and gold related products by clients of these banks. Put differently, banks will be selling different products to their clients.

 

I have no views on:

 

17. storage risk - there is storage risk or equivalent with all asset classes;

 

18. Deutsche Bank withdrawing from the London Fixing mechanism - which is a redundant throwback to the days when the price of gold was fixed and should have been done away with in the 1970s;

 

19. the emotional appeal of gold - undoubtedly one of the reasons why gold continues to be a popular investment but emotions are very fickle things;

 

20. digital currencies like Bitcoin diverting some money away from gold.

 

I have deliberately not included either:

 

21. inflation; or

 

22 deflation,

 

as being either bullish or bearish as much would depend on other circumstances at the relevant time (e.g. an inflationary environment which saw high interest rates could be either bullish or bearish for gold).

 

The real difficulty is that it is difficult to quantify most of these items (not all, obviously). FWIW, I am more bullish than bearish at this time (which means nothing because my track record is not so good either).

 

Unfortunately, my early experiences with charts came from exposure to Robert Pretcher and a now defunct stock investment service - both of which managed to get things wrong far more often than they got them right. That said, David Fuller runs a pretty good service combining technical analysis with fundamental and a geo-political overview. Marc Faber is someone I have a lot of time for (although he always says you should buy gold). Occasionally the big banks have got it right - the problem being that none of them are right sufficiently often to be relied on. So, I will read what people have to say but be at least a little bit skeptical at all times.

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thanks.

that's great, TI

food for thought

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The =RESET and Gold prices

 

 

'The Big Reset' - What would it actually look like?

"For How Long Can This Paper-Gold Game Continue?

As you have been reporting yourself we can witness several indications pointing towards great stress in the physical gold market. I would be very surprised when the current paper gold game can be continued for another two years. This system might even fall apart in 2014. A default in gold and/or silver futures on the COMEX is a real possibility. It happened to the potato market in 1976 when a potato-futures default happened on the NYMEX. An Idaho potato magnate went short potatoes in huge numbers, leaving a large amount of contracts unsettled at the expiration date, resulting in a large number of defaulted delivery contracts. So it has happened before. In such a scenario futures contracts holders will be cash settled. So I expect the Comex will have to move to cash settlement rather than gold delivery at a certain point in the not too distant future. After such an event the price of gold will be set in Asian markets, like the Shanghai Gold Exchange. I expect gold to jump $1000 in a short period of time and silver prices could easily double overnight." - (Zero Hedge)


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...g-reset-part-2


A big reset would undoubtedly entail a credit crunch - no one would have any 'money' to lend. How long would it be before enterprise and investment flourished again, if ever?


'The Big Reset' - What would it actually look like?

 

=

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Crisis in Argentina sparks new gold rush

Why now’s the time to be bullish on gold-mining stocks

 

Several weeks ago I bought the one asset that all investors seem to hate.

I bought some stock in gold mining companies.

No, I haven’t gone gold bug or paranoid. I’m not dressing up in camo or wearing tin foil on my head to stop radio waves from NSA satellites.

The actual cause was simple. Gold mining stocks had fallen so far out of favor that they had triggered the Bennett Rule—a rule named for my old friend, and money manager extraordinaire, Peter Bennett in London.

MW-BM253_gold_b_20131001144806_MD.jpg?uu

\

Bennett, a private-client money manager with an excellent track record going back 40 years, has an old rule of thumb: Take a modest wager on any durable asset (i.e. not Pets.com) when it has fallen more than about 60% from its peak.

Most of the time, he has found, over the subsequent five years you will do very well indeed. It doesn’t always work, but it does most of the time.

 

Today your average money manager would rather suck a lemon than own shares in a gold mining company.

In April 2011, the Philadelphia index of Gold & Silver miners XAU +1.79% hit a peak of 229. Near the end of last year it touched 80—a fall of 65%. (It has since rebounded to 91.)

Gold itself has tumbled a long way, from a peak of around $1,900 an ounce in September 2011 to $1,263 now. But the stocks have fallen much further than gold itself.

The Philly index is now at its lowest level, when compared with the actual price of gold, since FactSet began tracking the data in the mid-1980s. I’m betting that gold mining stocks are the cheap way to play gold. The market value of Newmont Mining Corp. NEM +0.37% , the industry bellwether, briefly fell below the value of its net assets.

Gold mining stocks are an “orphan asset” these days. They are generally unwanted and unloved by investors.

Gold bugs don’t want them. They think they are paper assets, and therefore rubbish.

Meanwhile, mainstream stock investors don’t want them either. They think they’re gold—and therefore rubbish.

As a result there is a very good chance they are trading lower than they should be

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