GOLD

[drbubb]

("Gold looks Set for a Big Run-up"), a recent post, has been turned into a Video:

 

PLEASE SHARE ! And subscribe, if you have not already.

 

 

A key thing to look at is that Correlation with US Debt, which goes on Rising:

 

Swings have been about $500, to either side of Debt's Gold equivalent.

 

History-- : Fed'l Debt : - $4.00 : x 119 : + $100 : Gold-Ln : Differ.

End2015 $19.0 eTr. : $15.00 : $1789: $1,889 : --------> +$500 = about $2,400

End2014: $18.2 eTr. : $14.20 : $1690: $1,790 :

06/30/14 : $17.63 Tr. : $13.63 : $1621: $1,721 : $1,315 : (406) :

12/31/13 : $17.35 Tr. : $13.35 : $1589: $1,689 : $1,202 : (487) :

06/30/13 : $16.74 Tr. : $12.74 : $1516: $1,616 : $1,192 : (424) :

Peak :

09/06/11 : $15.22 Tr. : $11.22 : $1335: $1,435 : $1,895 : $460 :

So far, so good.

The previous two Videos, have stood the test of Time very well:

May 15, 2014 : Major Low in Gold, before end of July - $500 of "easy upside"

June 6, 2014 : The Bellwethers have Rung! A Gold Low may now be in place

[Perishabull]

 

("Gold looks Set for a Big Run-up"), a recent post, has been turned into a Video:

 

PLEASE SHARE ! And subscribe, if you have not already.

 

 

A key thing to look at is that Correlation with US Debt, which goes on Rising:

 

Swings have been about $500, to either side of Debt's Gold equivalent.

 

History-- : Fed'l Debt : - $4.00 : x 119 : + $100 : Gold-Ln : Differ.

End2015 $19.0 eTr. : $15.00 : $1789: $1,889 : --------> +$500 = about $2,400

End2014: $18.2 eTr. : $14.20 : $1690: $1,790 :

06/30/14 : $17.63 Tr. : $13.63 : $1621: $1,721 : $1,315 : (406) :

12/31/13 : $17.35 Tr. : $13.35 : $1589: $1,689 : $1,202 : (487) :

06/30/13 : $16.74 Tr. : $12.74 : $1516: $1,616 : $1,192 : (424) :

Peak :

09/06/11 : $15.22 Tr. : $11.22 : $1335: $1,435 : $1,895 : $460 :

So far, so good.

The previous two Videos, have stood the test of Time very well:

May 15, 2014 : Major Low in Gold, before end of July - $500 of "easy upside"

June 6, 2014 : The Bellwethers have Rung! A Gold Low may now be in place

 

 

Great video Bubb, salient points and concise too

[drbubb]

 

Great video Bubb, salient points and concise too

 

Thanks.

Some of the earlier ones may have seemed too complicated.

The simpler points are this one might be easier to remember

[Traineeinvestor]

Agree - it was a great video. Clear, concise and actionable without being unrealistically confident of an uncertain future - not the waffle or unsupportable bombast that too many commentators indulge in.

 

I will definitely be listening to more of these.

[drbubb]

Thanks. That's a very nice comment

If people have YouTube accounts, it would be great to see some comments posted on the channel

[klogger]

Thanks for the video, I appreciate the opinions of non-perma-bulls with vastly more experience than me. I am still sitting on the sidelines hopeing that the bottom isn't quite in yet - but I am nervous that I have missed another reasonable profit oppertunity! There is a lot of bullish commentary around but this chart has me wondering:

 

 

There is still a lack of bullishness from the commercials who, if I understand it correctly, are most often on the correct side of the trade.

[drbubb]

True - They are USUALLY right. But not always.

 

And I think they miss some big turning points.

 

Another thing that I would like to see (in an ideal world) would be more sustained

buying of SPDR Gold. Their Gold holdings have been mostly "drifting sideways"

[Traineeinvestor]

(reposted here from my diary as it may be of general interest)

 

Martin Spring's excellent On Target newsletter has just arrived and the leading article is "Gold Starts to Recover Its Traditional Role"

 

An excerpt:

 

"This has been particularly noticeable in recent months as the impact of US government sanctions on international banks for failing to comply in full with the dictates of its foreign policies “has become severe.”

Since May the American authorities have extracted almost $12 billion in fines in settlements with France’s BNP Paribas and Zurich-based Credit Suisse. As a result, Dizard says, “the world is finding ways to get along without the dollar.”

Gold is one of several alternatives.

“Not many transactions are actually invoiced in gold as such; instead, gold is used as the settlement medium rather than for the price quotation,” he says.This has been particularly noticeable in recent months as the impact of US government sanctions on international banks for failing to comply in full with the dictates of its foreign policies “has become severe.”

Since May the American authorities have extracted almost $12 billion in fines in settlements with France’s BNP Paribas and Zurich-based Credit Suisse. As a result, Dizard says, “the world is finding ways to get along without the dollar.”

Gold is one of several alternatives.

“Not many transactions are actually invoiced in gold as such; instead, gold is used as the settlement medium rather than for the price quotation,” he says."

 

I am very close to taking a bit of money off the stock market and buying a bit more bullion.

[carbon junkie]

[Pixel8r]

 

("Gold looks Set for a Big Run-up"), a recent post, has been turned into a Video:

 

PLEASE SHARE ! And subscribe, if you have not already.

 

 

 

Thanks for the video it agrees with what I have been thinking of late. I think the gold bull is about to restart and have been positioning myself to take advantage of it.

 

There is a possibility of a major crash in the stock market and a resumption of the 2008 crisis, where everything gets sold off in a rush for liquidity. If that happens we could see gold drop for a final low.

 

It seems that is what Martin Armstrong has been talking about in his latest blog post, expecting the final low to appear not before Jan/Feb 2015 - http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/01/july-recap-of-few-markets/

 

The closings for July were quite important in the long-run.Gold on a nearest futures basis closed July at 1281.30. Support during August will lie at the 124000 and resistance will form at 1285.00 on a closing basis with 1318.00 followed by 1350.00. We do not see a possible final low before Jan/Feb 2015. The uptrend line is about where the last lows were. This is typical and most standard chartists will see that break as bearish long-term. We need to break that support to see the towel thrown in by most. So we are still looking for a low under $1,000 and that could form as early as Jan/Feb. We will lay out the details going into September 2015 in the coming report.

 

[klogger]

 

Thanks for the video it agrees with what I have been thinking of late. I think the gold bull is about to restart and have been positioning myself to take advantage of it.

 

There is a possibility of a major crash in the stock market and a resumption of the 2008 crisis, where everything gets sold off in a rush for liquidity. If that happens we could see gold drop for a final low.

 

It seems that is what Martin Armstrong has been talking about in his latest blog post, expecting the final low to appear not before Jan/Feb 2015 - http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/01/july-recap-of-few-markets/

 

 

Does that mean that you are expecting an upturn over the next few months and than the possible drop to a final low?

[Pixel8r]

 

Does that mean that you are expecting an upturn over the next few months and than the possible drop to a final low?

 

To tell you the truth I am unsure as to what to expect, I have been thinking we have seen the bottom of this correction with the 2 $1180's at end of June and December last year and we would be setting off on the next wave around now.

 

I have recently sold a property in preparation to put some more capital into PM's, have started feeding some in but am now starting to think that we could see final drop if we see another 2008 style liquidity crisis. If we do see a repeat it could be that you are still better buying physical ahead because the banks could lockup and capital be hard to move.

 

Think I will probably end up deploying some ahead and hold some spare powder to see what the next few months bring.

[drbubb]

Sounds like you have survived the Two Year Gold Bear pretty well, Pixel

 

Martin Armstrong has some useful ideas to offer around his cycles, but he doesn't always get his individual asset calls right.

 

I think we have seen Gold's Low for this year, and probably longer - But to be honest, I cannot rule out that dip below $1,000 that many have predicted. However, I think the more time that goes on, the less likely it becomes. In July, we passed the month that Charles Neener had foreseen as the possible cycle Low for Gold.

 

I take the outperformance of Gold shares (over Gold) as another positive sign

[notanewmember]

 

Gold documentary - there are some familiar faces in there. Andrew Maguire, John Embery, etc.

[Pixel8r]

warpig talked about an interesting indicator to monitor for confirmation of the change in gold direction on 24knews today, the CCI index. Looking like it is about to confirm it breakout with a test at around 504

 

[klogger]

I found this article interestng as I have been using the silver COT data to hold off buying while many of the mainstream silver commentators are turning bullish:

 

 

Myself and a few others – primarily GATA – have been suggesting for quite some time that While certain newsletter peddlers adamantly maintain the reports are accurate and honest in order to preserve their franchise, there’s nothing like the CFTC imposing a fine on JP Morgan for fraudulently reporting “large trader” data:

 

CFTC Charges JP Morgan With Reporting Fraud.
JP Morgan has finally been caught and sanctioned for playing games with its position reporting in gold and silver in order to hide the true magnitude of its unhedged short positions on the Comex.

 

 

The CFTC Order specifically finds that since at least 2012, the CFTC was notifying JPMS about errors in its large trader reports, which increased in frequency throughout the year. CFTC Regulations require FCMs to submit information on a daily basis for certain large traders, such as the number of open futures or options positions; the number of delivery notices issued or stopped; and the number of Exchange For Related Positions (EFRPs). In December 2012, the CFTC notified JPMS that the on-going problems were unacceptable. JPMS, relying on its third-party vendor that generated the reports for JPMS, assured CFTC staff that the problems would be resolved on or before the end of January 2013. However, JPMS continued to submit large trader reports that contained hundreds of errors throughout the period from February 1, 2013 to February 2014.

 

It does sound like they have been understating their short position though, so maybe I will get lucky in the end.

[warpig]

This chart paints a clearer picture IMO.

 

 

warpig talked about an interesting indicator to monitor for confirmation of the change in gold direction on 24knews today, the CCI index. Looking like it is about to confirm it breakout with a test at around 504

[drbubb]

Gold is a Mid-range drifter now:

 

 

... and is at the Top of a Minor channel

[klogger]

Does this signal a period of wait-and-see for you or do you remain mostly bullish with a little caution thrown in at the moment? The minor channel looks like it could drop to about 1200 within a couple of months.

[drbubb]

I think it can penetrate both downtrend/ resistance lines, and move higher.

 

But I cannot guarantee it, and will monitor it closely to see if the price move meets my expectations.

If not, Gold should start moving lower early next week - But i think it can instead move higher.

 

In the end, the market will make up its own mind, and I can only watch, and maybe trade,

when I see an opportunity, or a risk

 

One trade I might do, is buy some more NUGT calls, if GDX moves slowly, with big drama,

to support

[carbon junkie]

I think it's still too early to discount a final capitulation low. At least looking for a bounce first. It could set up the possibility of one more profitable short from the end of this month going in to the end of the year. But its still too early to call IMO.

 

[Pixel8r]

The capitulation low came in June 2013 with the drop to $1178, we have been on base building since then. Through my years of watching Gold it always seems to move in a way where it leaves the bulls behind. I doubt we will see another capitulation low for that reason.

 

Now comes the time when everyone has to take notice of gold again.

 

 

I think it's still too early to discount a final capitulation low. At least looking for a bounce first. It could set up the possibility of one more profitable short from the end of this month going in to the end of the year. But its still too early to call IMO.

[Van]

I think it's still too early to discount a final capitulation low. At least looking for a bounce first. It could set up the possibility of one more profitable short from the end of this month going in to the end of the year. But its still too early to call IMO.

 

 

 

these guys' forecast just swings with the breeze week in, week out. I don't know why you bother with such tosh.

[drbubb]

GOLD still has its Wild Bulls...

 

Gold Price Forecast for Next Six Months: Buckle Up!

EXCERPT

 

I believe the gold bull market is not over, but has merely taken an extended breather. These periods of correction and consolidation can be very healthy for long term bull markets and I see no reason that it will be different for gold this time around.

Certainly, the fundamental factors continue to support the argument for higher gold and silver prices. The total level of both government and consumer debt continues to expand, and the debt-to-GDP ratio of the United States and most industrialized nations also continues to push higher.

The dollar is slowly losing its status of world reserve currency and the petrol dollar reserve is seriously being called into question. A growing list of nations are signing bilateral trade agreements to bypass the dollar, with both China and Russia turning openly hostile towards the dollar in recent months.

We have also seen strong buying emerge at every major dip since the current uptrend in gold started. Weak hands have long been shaken from their positions and the current holders are not easily scared into selling at any sign of price weakness. These factors should help to support gold and push prices higher in the coming months.

* * * *

On the technical side of things, we see a symmetrical triangle pattern that has developed over the past year. This pattern is easily recognized by the distinct shape created by two converging trendlines. The pattern contains a series of sequentially lower peaks and a series of sequentially higher troughs. Both trendlines act as barriers that prevent the price from heading higher or lower, but once the price breaches one of these levels, a sharp movement often follows. When layered on top of a sector that is already highly volatile and prone to sharp moves in either direction, the resolution of the current symmetrical triangle pattern has explosive potential.

We don't yet have solid indication as to which way this movement will be, but my gold forecast remains to the upside for all of the fundamental reasons that were just mentioned. Furthermore, the latest breakout generated a higher high versus the April peak and the price has thus far held up above both key moving averages (100-day and 200-day). The RSI has retreated from overbought levels and has room for another major push, just as gold is heading into its strongest seasonal period of the year. Taken together, these factors lead me to believe that the eventual breakout will be to the upside.

Looking at the longer-term chart, we can see that the recent correction makes sense after such a powerful rebound that followed the financial crisis. Furthermore, specific cycles or trends start to emerge that can help us predict the potential scope of gold's next move.

First, notice how the 2008 correction retraced 50% of the prior advance. Then gold had an explosive rebound from around $700 to a new high above $1900. This gain of $1,200 was followed by a retracement of around 60% of the move. These two retracement percentages are very close the Fibonacci sequence that is a favorite predictive tool amongst technical chartists.

Lastly, note how the 2009-2011 advance of $1,200 was a little more than double the previous advance of $550. If this trend continues, we can expect the next major advance to take the gold price up by $2,400 or more. This would result in a gold price of at least $3,600 during the next upleg, although it is likely to take between two and four years to reach this level.

==

> Jason Hamlin : http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-price-forecast-next-six-months-buckle

[drbubb]

KITCO Article

 

Gold

 

Let’s address Harvey and Erb right off the bat. The academics have gained quite a bit of notoriety with their CPI adjusted target of 800 for gold. They’ve even got a trend line in their favor.

Next in the Bear Sweepstakes is Team 1000, and these guys actually have a compelling support level (top of the 2008 pattern) to support their case. In fact, if that is a small Symmetrical Triangle (noted by the converging red and green trend lines) forming as opposed to a bottoming pattern, it measures to 1000.

 

But what about Team Gold 2000 & Beyond? Well, they’ve got a large Symmetrical Triangle measurement to 2400. If that is the proper interpretation then even an unsuccessful test of the upper Triangle trend line would bring gold to the very notable resistance shelf (red) around 1500. Indeed, gold’s big picture could require an unsuccessful test there, a renewed decline to the rising lower line and then a bull breakout a year or two down the road. We just don’t know, so let’s not try to force it with our hopes and ideologies.

 

Gold Status: Several options, bullish and bearish. Use the small Sym-Tri upper and lower lines as parameters to bull or bear. These are the big picture technicals only. As with shorter-term charting, we manage the macro fundamentals consistently in NFTRH.

==

> more: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Tanashian/2014-08-15-HUI-Gold-Silver-Fun-With-Monthly-Charts.html