GOLD

[carbon junkie]

 

 

these guys' forecast just swings with the breeze week in, week out. I don't know why you bother with such tosh

No, thank you for your wonderful contribution its so much better than tosh.

 

I'm sure you also spent time and effort creating this wonderful post.

 

If you can do so much better during a trend less indecisive market then try.

 

You should probably just stick to doing something nice and easy like anonymously being rude to someone trying to do something difficult after all you wouldn't want to push yourself would you?

 

You are rude ignorant and eminently ignorable.

[carbon junkie]

[carbon junkie]

The capitulation low came in June 2013 with the drop to $1178, we have been on base building since then. Through my years of watching Gold it always seems to move in a way where it leaves the bulls behind. I doubt we will see another capitulation low for that reason.

 

Now comes the time when everyone has to take notice of gold again.

 

 

There is no way you or I can say with any great certainty that the low is in I would love for it to be the case. You may well be right but... capitulation low it certainly wasn't.

 

This is why my forecasting and Gold is so indecisive because the low in June 2013 had no characteristics of a capitulation.

 

You might look up the daily step sum graph for Gold it never came close to capitulation.

[drbubb]

Keep posting them, CJ.

 

And maybe say a little bit about how you might use them in your own investing and trading

 

 

BTW, I see your latest forecasts suggests the usual Seasonal cycle may not lift Gold this year.

Any comments on Why it shows that?

Would you really SHORT gold as we head into what is usually Gold's best weeks?

[drbubb]

Malca-Amit Opens 2000 Tonnes Gold Vault In Shanghai

 

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Do you think there might be some plans to fill it up?

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A gold vault that can store 2,000 metric tons, double China’s projected consumption this year, opened in Shanghai this month as owner Malca-Amit Global Ltd. seeks to benefit from rising demand in Asia’s largest economy.

The facility is the biggest for the Hong Kong-based company, and it can also store diamonds, jewelry and art, Joshua Rotbart, precious metals general manager, said in an interview. The site could hold bullion worth about $82.5 billion at today’s price, Bloomberg calculations show. China’s total demand may reach 1,000 tons in 2013, the World Gold Council forecasts.

Consumption in China may increase 29 percent to a record this year, overtaking India as biggest user as lower prices and higher incomes spur demand, according to the WGC. The investment in Shanghai’s new free-trade zone reflects a shift in world demand away from the U.S. and Europe toward Asia. Demand for gold jewelry, bars and coins in Greater China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam is now about 60 percent of the global total, up from 35 percent in 2004, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.

. . .

“There’s going to be more gold coming to China,” Rotbart said on Nov. 5. “This place can be used as a trade hub basically, so foreign banks can trade with domestic banks within this facility, saving costs and time.”

The Shanghai vault is targeted at international and Chinese financial institutions, as well as the arts community, Rotbart said at the Waigaoqiao free-trade area, where firms have fewer restrictions on investment and foreign-exchange requirements. Apart from Hong Kong and Singapore, where capacity is 1,000 tons each, Malca-Amit also has storage space in New York, Zurich, Geneva, London and Bangkok.

“We expect big demand from foreign banks and we are talking to a few,” said Rotbart. “It’s a step forward for them because it puts less limit on how they operate in China.”

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> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-10/gold-vault-for-2-000-tons-opens-in-shanghai-as-bullion-goes-east.html

[carbon junkie]

 

Hi Dr. I will look to take a short position if we get back to $1300 ish, Currently I have one long position I sold the other two at the end of the week before last.

 

So I publish a weekly forecast but I trade using the same maths on a daily and intra day basis so everything is at least five times faster as it were.

 

I trade futures contracts.

 

I am always sceptical of Gold seasonals.

 

I am currently in the process of creating an interactive Gold chart which will begin to explain some of what I am doing.

 

My forecasting is very much in its early stage more computing needs to be done and that requires a ton of work.

 

This current time period is also about as difficult as Gold gets in the last forty years - so for the impatient bear with us.

 

FYI as a once keen poker player my forecasting should be taken in the same way a player sees a hand of cards and makes a play. We bet on the balance of probabilities follow our own rules which suit the hand dealt and our own level of risk. BTW unlike a poker player we can't just burn a bad hand.

 

We do not crumble and give up just because we lost a few hands we stick to the mathematical probabilities.

 

We also like any trader need to know when we are wrong and when it is time to bail. No system is perfect and there are always exceptions to the rule .

 

All the best.

 

 

 

 

[JIMBOWEN27]

The shift from West to East continues. I wonder if this coincides with the bottom in gold?

 

Shanghai Gold Exchange Launching International Bullion Exchange In Yuan Next Month

 

China is moving closer to positioning itself as the physical gold trading hub of the world and the world’s gold price discovery centre. It is a natural progression for the largest economy in the world and for the world’s largest gold buyer, importer and indeed producer.

 

The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) is launching its yuan denominated international bullion trading exchange next month. This is another important step in internationalising the yuan or renminbi and positioning it as an alternative global reserve currency.

 

Bloomberg reports this morning:

 

"The Shanghai Gold Exchange plans to start bullion trading in the city’s free-trade zone on Sept. 26, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

 

The people asked not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak to the media. Gu Wenshuo, a spokesman for the exchange, confirmed that the trading system is being tested, without giving further details.

 

Shanghai wants to become a regional bullion-trading hub, giving foreigners access to the world’s largest physical-gold market, Xu Luode, the exchange’s chairman, told a conference in Singapore in June.

 

The gold contract will be priced and settled in yuan and the infrastructure is in place for trading to start in the third quarter, Xu said in June. The zone will have a vault capable of holding 1,500 metric tons of gold, which can either be imported into China or be in transit to other markets, Xu said.

 

China is seeking to open up its bullion markets just as domestic demand weakens. Consumption contracted 19 percent in the first six months of the year, according to the China Gold Association. Bullion of 99.99 percent purity traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange climbed 8.7 percent this year, damping demand which reached a record in 2013."

 

Reuters reports this morning:

 

"China has allowed three more banks, including a foreign lender, to import gold, sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, as the world's top gold buyer gears up for its strongest effort yet to gain pricing power of the metal.

 

The move, which brings the number of firms allowed to import gold into China to 15, comes ahead of the launch in September of a new international bullion exchange in Shanghai with which China hopes to become a price-discovery centre.

 

China and other Asian gold trading centres such as Singapore are calling for more localised pricing of the precious metal as they seek alternatives to the so-called London fix, the global benchmark for spot gold prices, which is being investigated by regulators on suspicion that it may have been manipulated.

 

Standard Chartered (STAN.L), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SS) and China Merchants Bank (600036.SS) were given regulatory approval recently to import gold, five sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

 

China approached foreign banks, gold producers and refiners to participate in SGE's international bourse, sources told Reuters earlier in the year, to boost its position as a price-discovery centre for gold. It plans to launch three physically-backed gold contracts.

 

The chairman of the exchange said in June that China should have its own pricing benchmark as it is the biggest consumer and producer of gold."

 

etc.

"

 

[edgegame]

Hi,

 

I've followed GEI for some time, but this is my first post. Erik Swartz's Market Anthropology blog seems to be corroborating with Dr Bubb's call for new precious metals rally:http://www.marketanthropology.com/2014/08/breaking-banks-finding-gold.html

 

Looking forward to posting more in due course!

 

Edgegame

[drbubb]

Welcome.

Good first post!

 

We are already starting to see some action in silver today (up almost 1% in Shanghai)

Let's see if it is suatainable

[G0ldfinger]

http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html

The charts below (in their version of August 26, 2014) tell us that:

 

(1) When compared to the Dow Jones, gold has only been cheaper on 22.1% of all trading days of the past 130 years (i.e. gold is cheap from a historical perspective).

 

(2) When compared to gold, silver has only been cheaper on 20.4% of all trading days of the past 130 years (i.e. silver is from a historical perspective even cheaper than gold).

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/DJIA-Gold-Ratio_Q_LOG.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/Gold-Silver-Ratio_Q.html

[drbubb]

GF is back ! ... on the GOLD thread

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http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/DJIA-Gold-Ratio_Q_LOG.html

http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/Gold-Silver-Ratio_Q.html

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Interesting.

Does this suggest that when the Dow Peaks, investors will rediscover the virtues of Gold?

[andrew]

GF great to see you posting !

Yes silver is looking good.

Best regards

AB

[Walktothewater]

Likewise, I enjoy your posts GF.

[G0ldfinger]

Good to see a few familiar avatars around! Still holding all my gold and silver and adding to it every now and then. The wait has been long, so a little up-move in the metals would be nice to see. But I am very patient, and one has to be, it seems.

[electroweak]

Good to see a few familiar avatars around! Still holding all my gold and silver and adding to it every now and then. The wait has been long, so a little up-move in the metals would be nice to see. But I am very patient, and one has to be, it seems.

 

Good to see you, GF. Yes, the wait has been long!

How about refreshing some of those colour-coded G:S and G:DJIA scatter plots, to see how the (in my view secular) bear impacted them??

Reviewing the last 18 months, I personally wish the Indian Gov. had been forced to lower the draconian duties they imposed last year.

I also wish Comex had exploded earlier this year as inventories dropped precipitously. (I now suspect Comex will simply be side-stepped by SGE and the other exchanges.)

[carbon junkie]

[drbubb]

STILL WAITING for a Good Gold signal

... on this GLD / Gold chart.

Maybe it will come now that we are into September

 

History - From Aug.19th

 

GLD - Two Years ... updated

(I cannot rule out another "head fake" - The 20-year seasonal pattern does suggest that possibility.)

 

Gold - Seasonal Pattern / source: EquityClock

[JIMBOWEN27]

This could be big. There is no way the BOE can return all the gold as it's been leased out in the market.

 

http://goldswitzerland.com/swiss-to-vote-on-gold-repatriation-in-november/

[carbon junkie]

[drbubb]

CJ,

 

Presumably: you are Short now, and not expecting a Head Fake?

[carbon junkie]

Good question. No I haven't managed to get short yet target not hit.

 

Made a nice profit on the last run up can't win them all. Should this be part of a larger move down I would still expect to get a short position.

 

My tactic will be to go long next time I get a daily buy signal (much shorter term signal than my weekly forecasts) as we are heading towards short term oversold.

 

Keep these new longs (if I get them) push stops in to profit and then still hunt for a short at a higher price on the longer term time frame and then see which way this baby goes.

 

I'm never worried about playing both sides.

 

Sure this could be a head fake sort of like the equivalent head fake in Sept 2012 (only in reverse sept 2012 cleared out the shorts locked in the longs and then reversed ) what that would mean to my mind is a plunge to $1200 (Sept 2012 was an impulsive move) this and next month followed by a reversal.

 

Gold as you know has a history of head fakes and loves to mask its true potential.

 

So in summary fast impulsive move to $1200 could set up a head fake, slow laborious breakdown would be more serious IMHO for the bulls.

 

Hope it kind of makes sense.

 

 

 

[Van]

It's death by a thousand down days right now.

[drbubb]

It's death by a thousand down days right now.

 

Yes.

Gold and Gold shares have "wasted" many decent set-ups, by falling on key days instead of rising.

The drop on Monday was another one of those.

 

The only think I remind myself is:

Sometimes when I get most disheartened (as we Both may be now), that's when the market bottoms

[callmejoe]

Amy at Chard @Chard1964Ltd · 10h

Just bought in 172 sovereigns off a customer.

[Traineeinvestor]

This is clearly bearish for gold: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=252969&sn=Detail

 

It also serves as a useful reminder that for many potential investors in gold, local concerns are vastly more significant than global geo-political issues.