Jump to content

Recommended Posts

This is clearly bearish for gold: http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-gold-news?oid=252969&sn=Detail

 

It also serves as a useful reminder that for many potential investors in gold, local concerns are vastly more significant than global geo-political issues.

 

To me, it's an obvious banker-sponsored puff piece:

 

This year Salunkhe has deposited his hard-earned savings at the bank for the first time in a decade and bought farmland.

"I bought jewellery when gold price was 32,000 rupees (per 10 grams) last year. Now jewellers won't pay me more than 27,000 rupees if I want to sell. Why should I invest in gold," said Salunkhe, who farms 15 acres of sugar cane in Vangal, a village 250 km (160 miles) south of Mumbai.

"Nowadays it is risky to keep jewellery. Burglaries are rising," he said. "With a fixed deposit there is no risk."

 

 

 

hmm.. yes, well, after the next lurch in the financial crisis we may remember what deposit risk is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

To me, it's an obvious banker-sponsored puff piece:

 

 

hmm.. yes, well, after the next lurch in the financial crisis we may remember what deposit risk is.

 

The fact that it is on mineweb is a very strong indiction that it is anything but banker-sponsored (even if it was originally from Reuters). It's just stating a combination of facts and the opinions of the people interviewed.

 

Given the inflationary, FX and credit risks involved in onshore local currency deposits in India, I would be very very hesitant about putting more than near term cash needs on deposit. I think the guy who purchased land will do much better in the longer term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I haven't managed to quantify the edge w/ fibonacci fanlines, however, typically this would constitute a very bearish setup. The interpretation would be as follows: the rejection of the 62.8% fanline confirms the 2011 top in the context of the 2001-2011 bull market.

 

sc-7_zps2b92699d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society becomes the first non-PRC operator given permission to set up a gold and silver storage facility in China: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-15/hong-kong-gold-bourse-approved-to-build-vault-in-china.html

 

Not so much significant as an indicator of how the centre of the global precious metals business is shifting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, that's quite a big change !

 

What happened, Ken?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, that's quite a big change !

 

What happened, Ken?

Its not that big a change really we forecast $1200 sometime ago but it just got there too quickly (can't win them all).

 

Being flexible and non dogmatic is part of forecasting realising that things are moving differently to your forecast is part of the process.

 

We forecast an orderly decline it didn't happen so now Gold just needs to push down a bit more in to oversold territory £1200 and change right now and then the bounce up will be bigger. T'is the nature of energy!!

 

Plus we are now incorporating our new six monthly forecast so the weekly is now a multiple time frame forecast.

 

In addition we have incorporated a second algorithm in to the monthly forecast, due to the time constraints it is not possible to do on a weekly basis.

 

In essence the more data you add and the more patterns you can incorporate the more difficult to do but hopefully the more accurate it becomes.

 

Hopefully as I mentioned before this is very early days there is so much more we want to do and will do when time permits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Taken from the month before the Lehman collapse, the real price of gold adjusted in this way is $550 today, based on a nominal price of $1220. So in real terms, gold has fallen 40% from its pre-Lehman level of $920, and has roughly halved from its adjusted high in 2011"

 

Ends with

 

"We are being regularly advised by analysts working at investment banks to sell gold. But bear in mind that the investment industry is driven by trend-chasing recommendations, because that is what investors demand. Expecting analysts to value gold properly is as unlikely as farmers telling turkeys the truth about Thanksgiving."

 

http://www.financeandeconomics.org/valuing-gold-and-turkey-farming/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The pain is never ending. What a turd. Dow/Gold ratio is now 14.

I'm feeling that the US economy is gubbed; whilst on the surface jobs numbers look great, underneath it's a whole different story with part-time replacing full-time, people dropping out of workforce etc.

 

Gold is pricing in a "no QE" strategy, whilst stocks are pricing in a "no Interest Rate hike" future. Personally, I think the wheels will come off big time soon and we'll be in an almost uncontrollable deflation. That's when Gold will react because the Central Bankers will be forced to un-taper, or launch the money-ICBMs or whatever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm feeling that the US economy is gubbed; whilst on the surface jobs numbers look great, underneath it's a whole different story with part-time replacing full-time, people dropping out of workforce etc.

 

Gold is pricing in a "no QE" strategy, whilst stocks are pricing in a "no Interest Rate hike" future. Personally, I think the wheels will come off big time soon and we'll be in an almost uncontrollable deflation. That's when Gold will react because the Central Bankers will be forced to un-taper, or launch the money-ICBMs or whatever.

 

The gold bugs have been complete idiots for the last 3 years. I include myself in this.

 

No doubt the bottom will fall out of the recovery at some point, but if you held gold you are sitting on very substantial losses. Don't even mention silver.

 

Where's the bottom? here? $1000? $800? No one has a clue at the moment. All that we know is that the price is falling and continues to go lower.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the 3rd retest of 1180 is nailed on. I also think this time it won't hold and things are going to get alot worse. The miners also seem to have made lower lows with each retest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not listened to it yet:

 

BBC Radio 4 Rigged Markets

 

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04hvynp

 

"Suppressing the gold price is rather like turning off a fire alarm because you can’t stand the noise"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree, I've been an idiot too. It's now clear to me commodities are in a significant bear market and since 2011, gold has been acting as a commodity not as the money of last resort. I think it's very healthy to acknowledge your mistakes or you're bound to repeat them. The dollar is going to rally much higher from here and it could push gold down in dollars to $680, in Martin Armstrong's own words, "This is the extreme target we have to respect is possible." He believes gold won't resume it's bull market until 2016, I believe he's said Q1 in the past. However it should then rally until 2020. He says this is all about the dollar and it's the process of repatriating the dollars that will cause the system to fall apart.

 

I suppose it should also be said, this doesn't necessarily reflect the price of gold/silver in local non dollar currencies. As the dollar strengthens, presumably other currencies are in decline which will cushion gold/silver. Non of this is what I want to hear either, but I can't help but feel it's going to come true.

 

 

 

The gold bugs have been complete idiots for the last 3 years. I include myself in this.

 

No doubt the bottom will fall out of the recovery at some point, but if you held gold you are sitting on very substantial losses. Don't even mention silver.

 

Where's the bottom? here? $1000? $800? No one has a clue at the moment. All that we know is that the price is falling and continues to go lower.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"Where's the bottom? here? $1000? $800?

No one has a clue at the moment. All that we know is that the price is falling and continues to go lower." - Van

 

The latest drop has been all about a weak dollar - Look what happened yesterday... EUR

 

EUR-10d_zps1e75928c.gif

 

That's a nice looking reversal.

And it came at the right time to give Gold a possible Triple bottom

 

Gold_zpsbcc71ec2.png

 

I would certainly like to see Gold back above $1220, $1250 and the downtrend near $1300, before clapping too hard.

 

The end of QE, US jobs growth and weak commodity prices have been the main drivers of the weak dollar.

You could say that the end of QE has now been priced in. I have been waiting for the cycle in commodity prices to bottom.

I expected it in August or early September.

 

Look at this - the etf for Agricultural price... DBA-update - $26.44 Close is Key Resistance

 

DBA_zpsd5c1c8b2.png

 

The looks like a strong sign that the bottom occurred during the Equinox in late Sept.

We have seen a number of false dawns in previous weeks. Overall, this is the best "chance" for a bottom yet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't ignore the Ruble, in your Gold analysis... RUB-6-mos

 

RUB_zps48099978.gif

 

Here's the mechanism:

+ EU and the US impose sanctions (announced 17-June)

+ Russian co's and banks cannot borrow USD and other hard currencies

+ Russian co's scramble to get hard currency to meet obligations

+ Ruble falls to 39.85, rather than R-36 per USD, as is "justified" by lower oil price

+ Russian banks and co's have to sell some of their gold holdings, to get needed currency

 

Ruble is down... with Oil

 

RUB vs. OILB/brent and USO/usOil ... update / RUBusd: $0.0252 / USDrub: R-39.85

 

Ruble-vsOILB_zpsf62879a3.gif

 

Per the WSJ:

"Official data suggest the (Russian) central bank spent at least $700 million from its reserves

to limit the Ruble's slide last week."

"Ruble hit by... capital flight, an economic slowdown, and Western sanctions... as oil has tumbled."

"Local demand for hard currencies... as banks and companies have limited access to external borrowing,

due to Western sanctions."

Oleg Kouzmin, chief economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said:

"The fair ruble price for oil between $95 and $100 a barrel stands at around 36 rubles per dollar."

 

It has occurred to me that the Russians may have sold some of their gold, to get the funds

they need to buy Rubles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HALF of Gold's Gains Gone !

 

Using Inflation adjusted prices, Gold-Adj. has given up HALF of its gains since the 2001 Low

 

The Drop to $1,180 / 1.0462 = $1,128 Real Gold price
That's 41.3% below the $1,920 Peak - versus the 82% drop from the 1980 Peak (HALF !)
This chart shows that the Inflation adjusted peak from 1980, was bang-on with the Aug-11 High
Gold_Inflation_Adj_2013_zpsc3468466.png
These are End-of-Month figures -
So Jan.1980-Infl.Adj.-End price was approx. $1,850
Versus end-Aug. 2011 = $1826.0am / $1813.5pm (/GLD-$177.77 = 10.20)
However, the Monthly high was higher:
During Jan.$1980 : $2,700 / $850 = inflation: 3.176

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A Good day for Gold, and a much better day for Gold shares

 

BEAM ME UP - say the Gold shares !

 

flacon-9-rocket.jpg?w=600

 

This was more than a rocket !

 

Oct: -SPY-: Chg : volume/ -GDX : Chg. : -GLD- : Chg : volume: x10.3? : WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l

07: 193.26 - 3.03 : 132.M: 20.74 - 0.74 : 116.36 +0.33 : 5.23M: 1,208.7 $88.43* 85.798 - 0.173 : 119.36 +1.59 : 07 : 037 / 090 : 0,610 /

08: 196.64 +3.38 : 173.M: 21.94 +1.52 : 117.47 +1.11 : 10.6M: 1,221.9 $87.71* 85.235 - 0.563 : 119.39 +0.03 : 08 : 045 / 105 : 0.715 /

 

Some BIG gains here :

 

ETF : $-Last- : change : chg-pct : Volume

Nugt : $24.08 : +4.27 :+21.55% : 12.87mn

Gdxj : $34.46 : +3.02 : + 9.61% : 23.47mn

GDX: $21.94 : +1.52 : + 7.44% : 101.2mn : highest volume of the year

SIL- : $10.64 : +0.68 : + 6.83% : 669,754

SLV : $16.68 : +0.20 : + 1.21% : 9.27 mn

GLD : 117.47 : +1.11 : + 0.95% : 10.56mn

DXY : 85.235 :-0.563 : - 0.66% : N/A

=

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×