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Will Grains snap back? Will Oil fight higher, piercing resistance?

Gold has outperformed Grains (DBA) for three years


DBA / x may be set to snap back


Here's Wheat


No snapback, and weaker Oil, if we see that... then Gold's rally may soon falter

Brent Crude Oil



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"Interesting to watch the latest movement in DXY which now looks like its completing a major H&S topping pattern.

This could be the start of the s%^t hitting the fan" - Van

Very nice to see you posting here, Van.  I do hope that all is well with you.

Yes, the USD is threatening to make a major breakdown.  Funnily enough, that may permit the long term rally in stocks, that Elliott-waver Tony Caldaro has predicted.

It might also put Gold back into a solid Bull market.  Following the GBS, the Gold etf that trades in London

GBS / Gold etf ... all-data : 5-yr :


NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index ... all-data : 5-yr :


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GOLD is sitting at a possible Breakout Point

GLD / Gold etf ... update


MNT.t / Royal Canadian Mint ... update


Shows LOWS every year, near year end

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ASA Gold & Precious Metals Ltd.

... update : 3-yrs : 3yr-vs-GDX :


Discount to NAV ... update : website :




ratio: ASA-to-GDX - like discount to NAV



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Gold COT Report - Rally looks set to ROLL - as Large Specs start buying again !


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GOLD-in-EUR - a breakout may have started


Gold-in-Sterling ... may also be breaking out


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LARRY PESAVENTO is a short term trader and a very good one

pic_LarryPesavento.jpg > Thu-MP3 : Fri-MP3 :

Larry said he "sold at a small profit" and still likes the set-up for Gold.


I think he sold above $1300.  (if so, he was/is able to repurchase at a lower price.)

He said he thought he would buy back in "soon", but did not want to stay long, while the EUR was so weak.

(Larry has a 24 hour beeper, and when the EUR strengthens at any time, he may jump back in; may have already.)

Let's see:

Here's EUR vs. GLD & GBS & HK-2480-Gold  ... 10d : 2mo :


When the large 2%+ gap narrows, and/or when EUR starts climbing again on the 10d chart, I expect he will go long again.

Over 2 mos - you can see they clearly move together


My own trading is not as short term as his, but I am looking for an entry point in buying some Gold shares

BTW. that yawning gap has meant that Gold-in-EUR and Silver-in-EUR is rising


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REALLY?  Don't be too quick to Buy this

Lower Gold Prices Today Complete Death Cross Pattern

Kitco Commentary

Gold futures closed down $3.10 today, with the August Comex contract currently fixed at $1,267.60. This three-dollar decline completed a pattern that we identified last week called a "death cross". A "death cross" is created when the shorter-term moving average crosses below the longer-term moving average.


This pattern is created from a 200 and a 50-day moving average. As such, these time parameters for each moving average are used to gauge short and long-term market trends. The short-term average crossing below the long-term average can signal the point in time in which a short-term correction has become a long-term selloff. As such, it can undoubtedly be indicating that gold prices could deteriorate further to much lower pricing.

Historically speaking, since 2013 there have been two instances of a death cross which occurred just before a significant selloff in gold pricing. There have also been two times in which a golden cross was identified (when the short-term moving average moves back above the long-term moving average) resulting in higher pricing.

However, there is also an occurrence in which the moving averages crossed back and forth over a 10-month time span, in essence, indicating a tight sideways market range until a final cross signaled dramatically lower pricing.


The most significant of the two occurrences of a death cross pattern occurred at the beginning of 2013 when gold was trading at $1,660 per ounce. The moving averages did not cross back to a golden cross until the end of March 2014, with gold trading at $1,267 per ounce. Also during that period in time, gold prices traded to a low of $1,190 per ounce on two occasions.


In November 2017, gold was trading at approximately $1,275 per ounce when another occurrence of a death cross appeared. From that moment, gold prices plunged to $1,120 before recovering.

The fact of the matter is that there are historical examples in gold in which this pattern forewarned of an imminent and dramatic price drop. Although there are also instances of this pattern flipping back and forth between a dead and golden cross in the market-rate sideways, this pattern is not to be taken lightly. When it is correct in indicating a selloff, that selloff can be dramatic and long-term.


Cross #1 : 50d vs 200d ... update


Cross #2 : 55d vs 233d ... update : No Cross (yet)


Cross #3 : 55d vs 252d ... update :



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A "useful" (?) look backwards in Time

Might there be more to gain from this old podcast than just nostalgia? 

(Big moves on high were important then, and they still are.)

OVER SIX YEARS AGO - we wondered if GLD / Gold had put in its Top - It had!

Dominic Frisby speaks with Jonathan Davis and Michael Hampton about gold

Seems like the "rubbish" in the podcast was far more accurate than the negative comments from the Gold bulls - who can only see things one way. No wonder those sorts of inflexible "cultists" lose money over time.
The Podcast was done in early March 2012, and you can see what happened after the $100 drop

Gold - long term


GLD / Gold etf - since inception


Gold - the last three years : GLD-4yr :


JUN 6, 2017


If we use the 1980 formula to measure inflation—the year gold peaked—you can see the current price is near all-time inflation-adjusted lows. In fact, gold is selling at roughly the same level as the early 1970s, when it was illegal to own in the US!

You can also see that the inflation-adjusted high would be a whopping $11,253 per ounce. Gold may or may not get to 5 figures, but this shows it certainly could if it repeated the performance from the 1970s. This data tells us that not only is gold dramatically undervalued at current prices, but the potential upside is enormous. If the gold price were to match the return from the past mania, it would have to rise 9 times from current levels!

Gold (GLD) vs. Resource related etfs, Energy shares (XLE) and Agricultural-Grains (DBA) ... from 2009 : all : 3yr : 6mo :


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GOLD etf's

GBS / GOLD Bullion Secs.: UK's Gold etf ... All-data :


GLD - Log chart ... All-data :


HK-2840 / gold etf ... all :



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LONG Term & Thought-provoking; Excellent

"An inevitable return"?

The Fall Of The US Dollar: Is The Return To A Gold Standard Inevitable?


As the cycle goes on... an Increasing Supply of Bonds can Only be sold to the public... at INCREASING INTEREST RATES

(yeah, and increasing risk of default!)

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T.I., Try Hang Seng bank (Head Office)

They do a great job and have narrow bid/offer spreads

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Thanks - I know they used to offer a limited range through their head office branch but there is no mention of physical precious metals services on their website. Do you know if they still have this service? And do I need to open a bank account with them?

BOCHK still offers a limited range of coins and bars and have always been painless to deal with.

Kitco and LPM have a wider range of products but I have never dealt with either.




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I am pretty sure they do.  I am a Prestige / Premier customer or whatever it is, and can buy Gold comfortably across a counter.

Also store in Safety deposit, if I need to

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Mint's usual Turn-of-year Surge is targeting $18.00-18.60, maybe higher

MNT.t is like a Gold-in-CAD etf

MNT.t / Royal Canadian Mint ... update :


Gold in CAD





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A selection of 2019 gold price predictions from nine major financial institutions (all worth exactly what you pay for them): https://goldsilver.com/blog/2019-gold-price-forecasts-and-predictions-from-the-big-investment-banks/

Predicted average prices for 2019 range from $1,292 to $1500 with an average of the averages coming in at $1,342 which is only around 7.5% above the price at the time of writing this ($1,249).


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TOO MANY PEOPLE in the Gold Trade?

Steve Rhodes thinks so

Trade What You See 09-11-19

> https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/trade-what-you-see/trade-what-you-see-09-11-19-0PFciKDpg2e/

"Break of $1508, suggests a change in trend is underway

"Gold may pullback to $1412 (Dec.Gold) ... in the next 1-2 weeks,

And maybe $1286 by (something like) Jan-Feb."

"If THAT happens, people will HATE Gold, setting up a great Buy."



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Here come the wild forecasts (as Gold battles $1700).  Is Gold therefore peaking?

Frank Holmes: Gold Is Going to $10,000

The Gold Report: Frank, you've said you expect gold to reach $10,000/oz. Can you tell us about your prediction...

When you realize the magnitude of it, it's very easy to see gold go up as the real asset. It's a very rational argument. The last time we saw gold go in a cycle like this, it went from $275 up to $700, then ratcheted back, and then went to $1,900. You can easily get a fivefold increase in the price of gold.

And that's where I said gold could reach $10,000, because the supply of gold is not increasing the way money supply is being increased, and GDP per capita is increasing in China and India, which together constitute 40% of the world's population—and which love gold for love and gift giving.

After I came out with the $10,000 gold prediction, I got topped by the great Pierre Lassonde, chairman of Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE). At the Denver Gold Forum he said that he's looked at gold in the past 30 years, how much it's gone up, who were the biggest gold producers 30 years ago, who they are today, the total supply, etc. And he said for the next 30 years, gold could easily be $25,000 on the upside, minimum $5,000. It could happen earlier. So I think now that $10,000 is a very reasonable and rational argument.

TGR: Do you see silver and platinum group elements moving in lockstep with gold?

FH: Palladium has had a bigger move for very sound reasons, and that is supply side is restricted. The biggest producer is Russia. And for catalytic converters, the demand remains strong, even though car sales have slowed down. We're only using platinum. So I think with platinum and palladium, one has to take a look at the supply side. When the trade war finally gets settled, and the Purchasing Managers' Index, which is forward looking, turns positive—where the last month is above three months—then I think that platinum and palladium will rise even more so.

But I think silver is the special one. I just love silver. Silver's the best gift to give to your children, your grandchildren. Unlike toys and video games, if you get them silver, they always keep it. I think it's inexpensive. The DNA of the volatility of silver is basically 50% greater. So if gold goes up 10%, you can expect silver to go up 15%.

FH: I had become frustrated in seeing in the gold market the way the stocks were acting, and so we started applying our quant approach. We used 100 different factors. We spent over 8,000 hours digging to try to understand it. What we noticed is there are some macro forces that all investors should realize. Of all these factors you look at, some are good for screening stocks, others are very good for picking stocks.

And I noticed that they like royalty companies, and so do I. And I've always advocated to your readership Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE), Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM:TSX; WPM:NYSE) and Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX) because they have a superior business model that has lower volatility in revenue, cash flow and earnings, and royalty companies have the highest revenue per employee of any industry group on the NYSE.

$20,000 gold price: Franco Nevada chairman makes the case
Current prices are already great for miners
Q2 - likely to be a "blowout" Quarter for miners. since Gold is over $1600, and the drop in mine production is likely to be temporary
With Oil at $25 a barrel, that's like a 10% cut in Op Ex

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