Magpie Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 I don't think that's a fact. While there are plausible arguments that cheaply extractable oil is at or past peak, there would appear to be plenty of less accessible reserves (oil shale, arctic, very deep or small pockets). This would still indicate a sharply rising price for oil. Exactly - there is a solid reason for the oil price to rise in relative terms. I don't think oil will be completely gone for a good while yet, but we are getting into a more complex period for it. The oil/gold ratio pricewise is fairly established throughout the oil driven economy era, is there a reason this correlation should break? I mostly saw white swans when I lived a white swan country. Can't think of any reason why I'd ever see a black swan, can you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 I'm going to bet against you on this occasion. I think the falling US$ is going to put too much upward pressure on gold today. It's pleasing to see that Silver didn't immediately bounce down from $17.00 and appears to be holding above ... it'll be interesting to see if it can hold for the rest of today. A controversial view, I know, but if Silver does hold, could it provide support for Gold?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wheelybin Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 I'm still going for one more down trend before the upswing... That's my thinking at the moment too... in the grand scheme of things, this correction has been pretty short so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glass Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 Go away in May? I remember this term being used in 2006 and it held true. Predictions for this summer? If oil does start the climb to $200 with the US "driving season" upon us, I don't see why it should long and hot for gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 On Oil vs Gold, doesn't the fact that Oil is getting close to depletion mean that there is a better reason for its price to escalate than gold? The world economy depends on oil, if its gradually running out, of course the price will rise. It could be that oil will outperform gold for a while. However, everyone knows that oil runs out and alternatives will have to be used/developed. And alternatives are known. There is no reason for city traffic not to be completely electric (buses, cars, trams), except for the fact that more powerplants would be needed (nuclear?). Gold and silver however have no known alternatives for their monetary functions. That's why they're still around after so many thousands of years. EDIT: Puplava's price target of $125 has been reached today. I am sure he will cheer tonight on FSN radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 It's pleasing to see that Silver didn't immediately bounce down from $17.00 and appears to be holding above ... it'll be interesting to see if it can hold for the rest of today. A controversial view, I know, but if Silver does hold, could it provide support for Gold?... Just look at the US$JPY. Started at 105.5 yesterday. Now falling through 102.8. Quite a nice straight line down. But, what's the betting it bounces a bit right about here ? Gold/silver will then dip a bit. But I'm betting they sty quite high. Just my view for tonight The poor old NZ$ is getting hammered today. That's going to mean dearer petrol next week ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 Correction. NZ$ is being slaughtered before my eyes !!!! It could be in for a really big drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 I love it when the Americans in the NY session start selling their gold because oil has just hit $125 and higher. But, hey, it seems to be a sell-it-all situation right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 Correction. NZ$ is being slaughtered before my eyes !!!! It could be in for a really big drop. You live in NZ but hold most of your wealth in "stuff other than NZDs" right? .... So the beers are on you this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 I love it when the Americans in the NY session start selling their gold because oil has just hit $125 and higher. But, hey, it seems to be a sell-it-all situation right now. Timing and scale suggests this drop in gold price is just our US buddies selling gold to cover their margin calls from this mornings 1% drop in the DOW on openning. Swiss franc and Yen strengthening for same reason (people repaying carry trade loans) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 Phew that was close, we just held inside the trend channel. If we'd dropped below $870 there I think we could have been in trouble. For now it looks like consolidation with a good possibility of an assault at $900 next week. However, if we break below that $870 level then look out below. Anyone else think oil could be getting close to a short term top? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 Anyone else think oil could be getting close to a short term top? Oil's relentless increase over the past week or so has been staggering. Mainly sideways movement with a big jump each day. Logic/history says this can't carry on. So yes, I don't think I'd have the cajones to short crude, but I fully expect it to be below $122 this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 Phew that was close, we just held inside the trend channel. If we'd dropped below $870 there I think we could have been in trouble. For now it looks like consolidation with a good possibility of an assault at $900 next week. However, if we break below that $870 level then look out below. Anyone else think oil could be getting close to a short term top? making a bit of a come back now. Be nice to see $890 by close for weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexreeve Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 The great thing about watching markets is you learn to spot balderdash a mile off. At least with housing people waited until there was a bubble till they started claiming the top was a permanent plateau. He's getting his balderdash in early, saying that when it does eventually reach a top, it won't fall. No, but a big surge in price would probably create one, unless there's some kind of ban on idiots buying gold that I haven't heard about. If the fair price is, say $2000, it's likely that the big run up to that would mean we overshot to $3000 or more before coming back down to earth. But maybe it's different this time... Totally agree, if gold does perform as we (gold investors) hope, a bubble mania and blow-off is pretty inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marceau Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 making a bit of a come back now. Be nice to see $890 by close for weekend. It is, but I'm still not sure. Gold is starting to irritate me to be honest, it's just pissing around trying to shake off the small guy at the moment and I don't like that because it makes things even harder to call than they normally are. I can see it going one of two ways, obviously that's up or down. But seriously, if the bears reassert themselves over the next week we're going to go back down to the $850 level and below. Whereas if the bulls can keep this going all I can see is more of this irritating grind upwards with periodic shakedowns, then at somepoint a big shakedown will occur and all the 'geniuses' who think they're awesome traders just because they've managed to spot an obvious uptrend channel will get their shirts taken. I guess that still makes me a short term bear, but it's hard to have conviction about anything in this market at the moment so I'll just have to say I'm short term neutral. What a pain in the ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 It is, but I'm still not sure. Gold is starting to irritate me to be honest, it's just pissing around trying to shake off the small guy at the moment and I don't like that because it makes things even harder to call than they normally are. I can see it going one of two ways, obviously that's up or down. But seriously, if the bears reassert themselves over the next week we're going to go back down to the $850 level and below. Whereas if the bulls can keep this going all I can see is more of this irritating grind upwards with periodic shakedowns, then at somepoint a big shakedown will occur and all the 'geniuses' who think they're awesome traders just because they've managed to spot an obvious uptrend channel will get their shirts taken. I guess that still makes me a short term bear, but it's hard to have conviction about anything in this market at the moment so I'll just have to say I'm short term neutral. What a pain in the ass. Yes its quite frustrating. The fundamentals are so obvious. Inflation high, oil high, financial system shaky, gold is cheap. So why does it not go up? I hope we will see some serious action in the autumn and I will be quite happy to see $1200, if JS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 Well, as you know, I know nothin' 'bout nothin', but when I noticed gold's climbing again straight after the plunge it took a couple of hours ago, I took it as a very positive sign, like it was just shrugging off half-hearted attempts to knock it down! As I've never been right about anything before, this can only mean one thing... sell, sell, sell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azazel Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 Well, as you know, I know nothin' 'bout nothin', but when I noticed gold's climbing again straight after the plunge it took a couple of hours ago, I took it as a very positive sign, like it was just shrugging off half-hearted attempts to knock it down! As I've never been right about anything before, this can only mean one thing... sell, sell, sell! Your wrong! Hold, hold, hold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ologhai Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 Your wrong! Hold, hold, hold!! I think that was my point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 I LIKE THE ACTION in Gold and Gold shares today (incl. CDNX & the Juniors) ...and I am adding to my positions - see new thread on GROW/ US Global Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bitbigt Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 Gold did not drop today ! You're all imagining it :-) There was a temporary and irrelevant drop plus recovery due to margin covering. DOW's on its way down bigtime next week ...IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobsta Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 Gold did not drop today ! You're all imagining it :-) There was a temporary and irrelevant drop plus recovery due to margin covering. I viewed it as a buying opportunity. Over the past couple of days I've shed around 10% of my G&S holdings at what look like clear tops ($888 Gold, $1700ish Silver) and then set up orders to buy it back (plus a bit more) 20 pts or so lower. It's been working quite well. Of course, when they really take off I'll potentially miss out on the upside. But during these fluctuations it strikes me as a good way to keep busy. Besides, if you consider what the pound's done today, all of us based in the UK have done rather well! It's taken a kicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted May 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 The spread between Brent and WTI seems to be narrowing. Or do I get this wrong? What could be the reason? Gold seemed to do very well, despite of all the weekend-selling in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 You live in NZ but hold most of your wealth in "stuff other than NZDs" right? .... So the beers are on you this weekend. Yep, you've got it Just think how much house prices here are going down too. Not just falling in NZ$ terms, but also falling due to the falling currency. Just like the US & UK, it's a good time to be invested outside the country. ---------------- I don't understand the moaning about gold. I don't think they are going to let it rise above $1000 without a big fight. Yes it will probably chop up and down massively. For those of us buying and holding this is all just noise. If you are trading, good luck, you'll have a lot of very interesting times for a while. Personally I think there are good signs. Even DrBubb has turned positive Lets celebrate getting through a few important stages from the bottom, and reaching $885. Look at where we were in early Feb. Yes, $885. And look where the price went. Was anyone downbeat about being at $885 back in Feb ?! IMO a nice weekly close. And OJ, I think you're right this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted May 9, 2008 Report Share Posted May 9, 2008 The cartel really had one hell of a bash at gold to take the price below the trend. How obvious was that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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