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The May gold investment and trading thread asks "Has Gold found a bottom at $850 per ounce?"

 

Just eyeballing this chart of 3-month Au, Ag, Pt and Pd shows it has, and that the date of May 1st was the recent bottom not just for gold, but for all PMs.

 

Platinum and Palladium have thereafter shown a good recovery, with gold and silver showing dithering upwards movement. In the next week, I'm looking to see if gold and silver follow the pattern of platinum and palladium with a convincing move upwards.

 

PMs starting to recover from the "Ides of March (and April)" ?

I do hope so.

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whereas gold that was dug up centuries ag is still being traded

 

I'm just an amatuer gold bug with some coins and one of the reasons I hold a percentage of my money in gold is because of the above statement. I'm sure cowry shells have been used for centuries as well but I wouldn't swap !

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The May gold investment and trading thread asks "Has Gold found a bottom at $850 per ounce?"

 

Just eyeballing this chart of 3-month Au, Ag, Pt and Pd shows it has, and that the date of May 1st was the recent bottom not just for gold, but for all PMs.

 

Platinum and Palladium have thereafter shown a good recovery, with gold and silver showing dithering upwards movement. In the next week, I'm looking to see if gold and silver follow the pattern of platinum and palladium with a convincing move upwards.

 

PMs starting to recover from the "Ides of March (and April)" ?

I do hope so.

 

Thats a bullish sign. Platinum has often lead gold in moves to the upside.. Probably more so these days owing to the tight supply arising from the power crisis in South Africa. Lets see if it pans out this time..

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We are in a B-wave maybe

 

Jake Bernstein thinks last week's Gold rally may peter out soon.

He went long last week for a quick move up, but if there is no follow-thru will sell on Monday or Tuesday.

He wants to go long Gold in late summer

 

/listen: http://www.yorba.tv/

 

Monty Guild (like me) has been talking about a rally from $850 to somewhere like $950-1000.

After that, he could see a pullback to $880-920, and then a HUGE rally

http://radio.goldseek.com/

 

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The truth about inflation in the US is starting to become generally known. In stark contrast to the official 'fiddled' figures.

 

Here is the front page of the Arizona Daily Star from this weekend:

 

ArizonaDailyStar_Inflation_Frontpag.jpg

 

Oh wait. No one buys food or petrol (gas). So they aren't included in calculating inflation.

 

 

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

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Monty Guild (like me) has been talking about a rally from $850 to somewhere like $950-1000.

After that, he could see a pullback to $880-920, and then a HUGE rally

http://radio.goldseek.com/

 

It's nice to listen to Monty after reading his thoughts for quite a while.

 

Monty_Guild.jpg

 

 

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BV down it seems... including their gold chart.

 

I wanted to see if the buying spree was going to continue from Friday! ;)

 

EDIT: Bah! No sooner had I hit 'Submit'... :)

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I'm just an amatuer gold bug with some coins and one of the reasons I hold a percentage of my money in gold is because of the above statement. I'm sure cowry shells have been used for centuries as well but I wouldn't swap !

 

Of course, that's one of the attractions.

 

I was only making the point about whether or not you'd expect current production costs to set the price. In the case of oil, it is the oil being produced now that is the majority of the market, so production costs are all-important. Slightly less so with something like gold where newly mined gold is only one part of the market.

 

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BV down it seems... including their gold chart.

 

I wanted to see if the buying spree was going to continue from Friday! ;)

 

EDIT: Bah! No sooner had I hit 'Submit'... :)

 

I've been trying to get on all day. Thought they'd filled up the lorry and done a runner :lol: :lol:

 

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BV has gone down a few times in last few months

this time at 2am

office hours are 9am to 7pm london time

no 24h tech around to reset/reboot/problem solve

six hours + down time

not good

 

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Gold bugs' grit pays off, again

Commentary: They held on and gold has rebounded, as they expected

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold...F-6C116E3398FD}

 

Furthermore, momentum is building in an exciting way. Australia's The Privateer remarked this weekend: "Have 'They' Gone Too Far With The U.S. CPI? On Wednesday, May 14, the U.S. Department of Labor ... announced the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for ... April. The official CPI figure for April was ... 0.2%. This prompted USA Today to run an article headlined: 'Inflation may be worse than consumer price index shows'

.

.

With the suppleness which makes it both derided and admired, the institutional service the Gartman Letter suddenly reinstated its gold-long position on Friday morning. Editor Dennis Gartman had been on TV programs earlier in the week expressing pessimism about gold, having abruptly sold a larger position at an early stage of the slide that started in mid-April.

Some gold observers feel this expensive publication has extremely good trading connections. Over the years, I have noticed TGL's buy-gold calls to be very well-judged -- although every so often the conditions which motivate them seem to attract heavy bouts of selling-- which is what happened in April.

The Gartman Letter was musing last week about the extreme situation of the gold-oil ratio.

 

Rally Time

http://www.rallymonkey.com/oldvideo.php :) :)

 

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Anyone spotting a trend yet :D :D

 

 

Consumer Price Indexes May Lie

Bill Bonner - Fri 16 May, 2008

http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/economic-f...-lie-00151.html

 

Last month, the price of gasoline went down 2%, says the Labor Department.

 

Wait a minute. Do you remember gasoline prices going down in April? We don’t. As we recall, oil prices were soaring…and so was the price of gasoline. We’re beginning to sniff something funny in the air…a rat.

 

It was largely thanks to this reported drop in prices at the pump that the Consumer Price Index registered a scant 0.2% increase for the month of April. And it was largely because of this low inflation reading that the yield on the 10-year note stayed below 4%, says Gary Dorsch.

 

Our view is that higher consumer price inflation is in the pipes and will soon be backing up in the bathtub drains. Dorsch says the US money supply is now increasing at a 16% rate; higher inflation can’t be far behind.

.....

Getting back to the price of gasoline, we check the records from NY gasoline futures trading and find the price actually rose 12% in April. How come the feds put it down as minus 2%? Turns out, they made a ‘seasonal adjustment.’ But turning plus 12 into minus two sounds like more than an adjustment; it sounds like either magic or major surgery…like turning a prince into a frog or a fat man into a slim woman.

 

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The UK Mainstream Press have the same concerns about official inflation figures.

The Daily Express and Daily Mail both now update a cost of living index

 

http://www.express.co.uk/costoflivingindex

 

"The Government tells us that annual inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, is 2.5 per cent. But the reality is that prices of the most vital goods and services have been SOARING way beyond this level and show no sign of slowing."

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/arti...d=1770&ct=5

 

"The truth about soaring prices: Food costs are rising at 15.5 per cent a year, according to the Mail's index

The true, devastating scale of rising prices is revealed today - by the new Daily Mail Cost of Living Index.

It shows that families are having to find more than £100 a month extra this year to cope with increases in the cost of food, heat, light and transport."

 

 

Many people scoff at these two UK papers, but I take their message (if not content) very seriously. They do print a load of rubbish most of the time and are obsessed with celebrity, Princess Diana etc. but the typical floating voter who holds the real balance of power in the UK reads these rags not The Times or more respected publications.

 

The rising cost of living is becoming a big issue in the UK. Inflating our economic problems away is not going to go unnoticed with the electorate.

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The UK Mainstream Press have the same concerns about official inflation figures.

The Daily Express and Daily Mail both now update a cost of living index

 

Many people scoff at these two UK papers, but I take their message (if not content) very seriously. They do print a load of rubbish most of the time and are obsessed with celebrity, Princess Diana etc. but the typical floating voter who holds the real balance of power in the UK reads these rags not The Times or more respected publications.

 

The rising cost of living is becoming a big issue in the UK. Inflating our economic problems away is not going to go unnoticed with the electorate.

I quite agree. And let's not forget that both of these papers have previously run "win a £250,000 dream house" competitions in the past. When you see "free gram of gold for every reader" or "Win 100 gold sovereigns" offers you'll know gold has gone mainstream. :)

 

--------

 

It's been a steady but cautious continuation on Friday's gains so far... any thoughts on direction as NY opens?

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We are in a B-wave maybe

 

Jake Bernstein thinks last week's Gold rally may peter out soon.

He went long last week for a quick move up, but if there is no follow-thru will sell on Monday or Tuesday.

 

Look's like Gold is getting some follow-thru: up $10.70 !

 

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It's been a steady but cautious continuation on Friday's gains so far... any thoughts on direction as NY opens?

 

With current rising inflation and rising awareness of inflation, I see two scenarios of equal probability;

 

1) this is the start of the big run up to 1500+ by autumn (with perhaps a little hesitation/struggle to get convincingly through 1000)

 

2) this will get knocked back down this week, by blatant central bank manipulation, and they keep doing that until the upward pressure becomes to too great for them to keep a lid on, causing 1500+ to be achieved year end / early '09

 

...so either way, just chill out and enjoy the ride (assuming you're invested by now)

 

[and if I'm wrong, its just that the 1500 target is far too low] ...IMHO!

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...two scenarios of equal probability;

1) this is the start of the big run up to 1500+ by autumn (with perhaps a little hesitation/struggle to get convincingly through 1000)

2) this will get knocked back down this week, by blatant central bank manipulation

 

...looks like its option '2': the battle begins, CBs vs the rest of us :-)

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...looks like its option '2': the battle begins, CBs vs the rest of us :-)

 

To clarify... I think CBs are bound to *try* to knock gold down over coming months, especially this week given recent price increase and increasingly positive sentiment towards gold. The question is how succesful they'll be. They've dived in to doing it today, and only time will tell how succesful they'll be in the long run (though they'll probably manage to suppress the price these next few days). Ultimately, I don't think they'll be able to keep gold below 1000 this year, because the increasing buying pressure will eventually just outstrip their capacity to fight back. And once it does break free of their constraints, the sky's the limit.

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I quite agree. And let's not forget that both of these papers have previously run "win a £250,000 dream house" competitions in the past. When you see "free gram of gold for every reader" or "Win 100 gold sovereigns" offers you'll know gold has gone mainstream. :)

 

Yes, this will be a great indicator of the public mania phase.

 

I think these types of competitions are highly likely - gold captures the public's imagination like little else. And if people get into that "Its price always goes up" mindset the marketing effect will be double. I remember when I was a child - mid 1980's - the UK confectioner Cadbury's ran a competition hiding 10 or so solid gold eggs in the UK countryside, with each location a solution to a riddle (you had to eat XX chocolate bars to get the riddle book). This was so successful that people went treasure hunting in all sorts of places and the National Trust was complaining of criminal damage to UK heritage sites.

 

When the Daily Mail and Daily Express start ramping gold (the Daily Express is still ramping UK property BTW) its time to start thinking about an exit strategy and another undervalued sector to place the savings.

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Yes, this will be a great indicator of the public mania phase.

 

I think these types of competitions are highly likely - gold captures the public's imagination like little else. And if people get into that "Its price always goes up" mindset the marketing effect will be double. I remember when I was a child - mid 1980's - the UK confectioner Cadbury's ran a competition hiding 10 or so solid gold eggs in the UK countryside, with each location a solution to a riddle (you had to eat XX chocolate bars to get the riddle book). This was so successful that people went treasure hunting in all sorts of places and the National Trust was complaining of criminal damage to UK heritage sites.

 

When the Daily Mail and Daily Express start ramping gold (the Daily Express is still ramping UK property BTW) its time to start thinking about an exit strategy and another undervalued sector to place the savings.

 

Well, the gold runs have started. :lol:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1982850/Go...rnia-hills.html

 

I'm off to California for my holls. Might have to give it a try :rolleyes:

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Yes, this will be a great indicator of the public mania phase.

 

I think these types of competitions are highly likely - gold captures the public's imagination like little else. And if people get into that "Its price always goes up" mindset the marketing effect will be double. I remember when I was a child - mid 1980's - the UK confectioner Cadbury's ran a competition hiding 10 or so solid gold eggs in the UK countryside, with each location a solution to a riddle (you had to eat XX chocolate bars to get the riddle book). This was so successful that people went treasure hunting in all sorts of places and the National Trust was complaining of criminal damage to UK heritage sites.

 

When the Daily Mail and Daily Express start ramping gold (the Daily Express is still ramping UK property BTW) its time to start thinking about an exit strategy and another undervalued sector to place the savings.

 

conundrumegg.gif

 

You mean one of these that I have lying about?

:lol:

 

http://www.treasureclub.net/publichunts/conundrum/index.html

Conundrum - The Cadbury's Creme Egg Mystery was a book by Don Shaw, and illustrated by Nick Price, released in 1983.

 

The 12 paintings and accompanying verses contained clues to the whereabouts of 12 buried caskets. These caskets contained a 'certificate of ownership' with a telephone number which the finder called to claim an exquisite 22 carat gold egg created by Garrard, the crown jewellers.

 

Each egg had a retail value in excess of £10,000

 

Other related links -

 

http://www.solstice.dsl.pipex.com/mystery/conundru.htm - what happened to the competition

 

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Conundrum-CadburyS...y/dp/B0015HNA1S - riddle book for sale

 

 

------------------

 

Look at the same stunt today:

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2007/feb/2...etingandpr.food

 

Monday February 26 2007

 

As a marketing promotion, it seemed like a splendid idea: hide a coin worth $10,000 in a well-known place, and tantalise treasure hunters by offering the finder a chance to win up to another $1m. But even the most well intentioned public relations plans sometimes come a cropper, and yesterday Cadbury Schweppes was forced to apologise for its "tasteless" stunt.

 

 

Now what kind of a coin could be worth $10K ?? A gold numismatic coin!!! The word gold only appears later in the article.....

Now someone tell me if gold is at the forefront of the public mind in the UK.

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From FT.com (loads more along the same lines over there this evening):

 

Insight: Life won’t be easy in the ‘nasty decade’

 

...As such, we have no reason to expect the inflation outcome over the next few years to be much different to the outcome in the 1970s. Such conditions are difficult for investors. History shows that positive real returns can only be secured at the price of much higher volatility, with just a handful of asset classes – commodities, related equity sectors and property – delivering positive real returns.

 

Broad equity investments, cash and particularly bonds lose their value in real terms. Meanwhile, outside the financial markets, macroeconomic volatility is likely to rise and stagflationary interludes proliferate. Life won’t be easy in the “nasty” decade.

 

The writer is head of asset allocation strategy at Barclays Capital.

 

Edit: sorry - should have been posted in inflation forum...

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...Could this be the start of another move lower? I would like to think so but with markets defying the pull of reality of late, I am not going to be as bold as to call a top here. But it is certainly something to think about. Maybe it is time for to start going short....

 

Thoughts?

 

I am still awaiting my SPX-1450-ish target, before shorting

 

The chart target looks almost too good ... update

bigua0.gif

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