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This is interesting, but I've got a different angle on this, and can also understand the arguments about whether commodities are currently in an overbought bubble.

 

It's the statement "this rush to commodities", which sums it up nicely... surely commodity prices should always be fundamentally based on supply and demand. They're not like shares in businesses, where businesses make money, increase profits, and thereby see the share price go up as a result. It's simply supply and demand, so when we see comments like "the rush to commodities", surely that is explicitly stating that prices are skyrocketing due to speculative money, rather than as a result of normal trading based on how much is available, and who needs it.

 

For example, I've got investments in Energy and Food ETF's, therefore I presume I'm contributing to price rises, and as a result causing this to have a knock-on effect on these items that I buy as a consumer. So this is also happening with the hedge funds and institutions investing in this area.

 

Surely there is a rush from Dollars to real assets exactly because of the supply and demand of the two.

 

I'm sorry but I half laughed at this bit "They're not like shares in businesses, where businesses make money, increase profits, and thereby see the share price go up as a result.".

I can't quote it, but I recently read I think it was a Robert Shiller book, in which he pointed out how high share prices are compared with earning.

He suggested that shares have been in a long-term bubble based on long-term analysis of what is "normal".

 

I don't agree about it necessarily being speculative money. Isn't it more like people moving from the Euro to the GBP when they see fundamental reason for the GBP going up relative to the Euro ?

At the moment there are good reasons to think the US$ is going down, and it's impossible to ditch them if you hold a lot without knocking the price, so what do you do ? You buy assets with them.

 

Isn't it the same with gold? Gold will go up because more people will buy it to avoid holding a fiat currency.

Although also when energy costs rise it becomes more expensive to mine, so the supply drops until the price rises to make the mining worthwhile.

Isn't that why the gold-Oil ratio stays relatively stable ?

If the oil price rockets, the supply from mining will collapse, until the gold price catches up.

 

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May 22, 2008: Last call to board gold train at under U.S. $1,000 by John Embry

 

see: http://www.BeEarly.com

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That's so last week :lol: :lol:

 

(Oh geez, that's another interesting site ! Not enough time in the day)

 

What about the silver train :D

 

Silver doing rather well recently, since I adjusted my gold/silver ratio towards silver.

And the more I read, the more I wonder whether silver isn't a better bet than gold :unsure:

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Trapper John M.D. M*A*S*H - Peter Schiff,Shut The F**k Up

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEf2vGLyJko

 

Oh this cracks me up.

 

The interviewer near the beginning says "so it's a choice between Japan and the Great Depression" :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

A decade long slide into......

Or..............

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Morning all :D

 

 

International Forecaster May 2008 (#6) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster

-- Posted Monday, 26 May 2008

http://news.goldseek.com/InternationalFore.../1211836205.php

 

Note that the rollover of gold futures contracts will be completed next week. The initial tally on April 30 had June contracts of open interest at 248,355 and August at 47,406. As of Thursday, those numbers stood at 163,127 and 143,608, respectively, meaning that June contracts of open interest have decreased by 85,228 contracts while August contracts of open interest have increased by 96,202 contracts. That means that the rally still has legs, and that after the current rally peaks next week based on short-covering, there will be a short period of consolidation after which gold and silver are up, up and away! This rally has legs.

 

The correction is over and those who are waiting for the usual summer slump are going to get a very big surprise. Wait until you see what happens in July when the seasonal adjustments that have artificially lowered official CPI and PPI are removed and all the suppressed inflation flows back into official numbers. Gold and silver are headed for the moon, so don't miss out on the coming rally. Take your position now and sit back and watch the precious metals go to town.

 

There were some very telling large declines in open interest this past Wednesday for contracts that are further out in time. The commercials are fleeing in terror as they contemplate how high gold and silver are going to go in the both the near future and in the more distant future alike.

 

On Wednesday, we saw various decreases in open interest for later expiration dates on gold futures contracts as follows: October 08: minus 3004 contracts, February 09: 6,392 contracts, June 09: 1,167 contracts, June 10: 3,329 contracts and December 11: 1,368 contracts. That is a decrease of 15,260 contracts in one day, on top of the 16,761 June 08 contracts that were closed out and rolled over into August 08, which gained 16,850 contracts. Overall open interest on Wednesday dropped from 453,084 to 439,773, a decrease of 13,311 contracts which is roughly the amount that was lost on account of open interest losses on contracts with later expiration dates.

 

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Isn't it the same with gold? Gold will go up because more people will buy it to avoid holding a fiat currency.

Although also when energy costs rise it becomes more expensive to mine, so the supply drops until the price rises to make the mining worthwhile.

Isn't that why the gold-Oil ratio stays relatively stable ?

If the oil price rockets, the supply from mining will collapse, until the gold price catches up.

 

Doesn't entirely make sense. Oil supply is entirely dependent on new production. Gold supply is only dependent in a small way on new production. A lot of gold that is sold (or not sold) has been in existence for a long time.

 

I accept there might be some relation, as choking off new mining will have an impact on the supply of new gold, but it wouldn't suggest the ratio needs to be relatively stable, merely that there is some causality between the two.

 

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Junior Miners, as represented by CDNX

001iv6.png

 

... are looking like a coiled spring

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I don't think I remember New York trading to result in so little movement before... What happened to the regular huge swings? ;)

 

Hows today for you then? :)

 

There seems to be far more bad days than good days. Gets on my tits TBH. (not that I have tits)

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May 22, 2008: Last call to board gold train at under U.S. $1,000 by John Embry

...

Seems I jumped on the wrong train here. "Next station $900..." :lol: Oh, anyway, maybe that's the famous Dr Bubb good-bye kiss?

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Seems I jumped on the wrong train here. "Next station $900..." :lol: Oh, anyway, maybe that's the famous Dr Bubb good-bye kiss?

 

 

Hehehe, yes you on the wrong platform. This train is going the other way! Perhaps its just changing at the points or something.

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I jsut spent $30 for a stopgap, but GEI may die within a few days...

 

But, and I don't mean this to sound patronizing, how you gonna grow if visitors can't read the forum? :unsure:

 

Growing isnt the issue. Staying alive at all is.

 

The guy who has been doing the hosting said he is losing money doing it, and he is booting me out within a few days.

I have found a temporary solution, that will cost $30 a month. Advertsising makes maybe $20 a month. I can afford

a small subsidy, but not $250-280 per month for GEI.

 

Another possibility is to charge $3-5 per month, but I think that will kill GEI stone dead

 

If I can find another better solution, that doesnt require me to learn all about hosting and internet, I will do so.

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Looks like Marceau's suspicions of one more sell off in gold were pretty much on the money. Firmly below $900 as I type and looks like it could go significantly lower. I would back up the truck but I'm keen to get involved in some of the junior miners and some sort of play on Japan.

 

 

 

 

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Seems I was on the right platform yesterday. :unsure:

 

Oh, well, kiss good bye, and then $1,000 and $1,200. :lol:

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Another possibility is to charge $3-5 per month, but I think that will kill GEI stone dead

Dr Bubb, I'm afraid I have no expertise in hosting or websites to assit with this, but I would pay this charge if it kept the site up and running...

 

One of the worst gold charts I've ever seen...

 

flatline - plunge on NY opening - flatline - plunge on LSE opening

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I've run a Vbulletin forum which consumed a full half TB of bandwidth per month on this shared hosting service:

 

https://dreamhost.com/hosting.html

 

They are inexpensive, but customer service is a bit slow and they won't be GEI's forum administrator. They do manage the actual database and web server administration, That said, it is kind of a "do it yourself" operation. But you can't beat the price and they've been in business a long time.

 

I assume your backend is Mysql? My quess is, all you'd need to do is unzip your forum software, dump and upload your database, then enter the appropriate paths to the web server and database servers with regard to the respective configuration files, and it should run fine.

 

I jsut spent $30 for a stopgap, but GEI may die within a few days...

 

 

 

Growing isnt the issue. Staying alive at all is.

 

The guy who has been doing the hosting said he is losing money doing it, and he is booting me out within a few days.

I have found a temporary solution, that will cost $30 a month. Advertsising makes maybe $20 a month. I can afford

a small subsidy, but not $250-280 per month for GEI.

 

Another possibility is to charge $3-5 per month, but I think that will kill GEI stone dead

 

If I can find another better solution, that doesnt require me to learn all about hosting and internet, I will do so.

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Pop Quiz:

 

In part related to my musings over on the silver thread http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=39913 I'd be really interested to gauge what the structure of people's portfolios looks like right now, and how you might like it to look if you are in the middle of "re-structuring". You don't have to include absolute values I'm just looking for percentages. I'll start:

 

Before:

Cash 89%

Equities (UK retail and credit) 11%

 

Current:

Cash 52%

Physical gold and silver 11%

PM Juniors 13%

Gold and silver futures 8%

FX deals (NOK and JPY)3%

Emerging markets and divesified commodities (inc energy) 13%

 

Soon:

Cash 20%

Physical gold and silver 11%

PM Juniors 12%

Gold and silver futures 17%

Emerging markets and divesified commodities (inc energy)40%

 

 

 

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Dr Bubb, I'm afraid I have no expertise in hosting or websites to assit with this, but I would pay this charge if it kept the site up and running...

 

One of the worst gold charts I've ever seen...

 

flatline - plunge on NY opening - flatline - plunge on LSE opening

The (Dollar) Empire strikes back.

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Seems I was on the right platform yesterday. :unsure:

 

Oh, well, kiss good bye, and then $1,000 and $1,200. :lol:

 

You think we will make a quick comeback from here? Looks like quite a positive rise in the last hour 1pm-2pm UK time. So long as it doesn't go below $850 I will not be too worried. King of gold called the fall yesterday morning accurately. How often does he get it right? Had I of taken some profit at that time I would have made a few grand now.

 

I'm confident that gold will make good progress from July, August time.

 

Az

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You think we will make a quick comeback from here? Looks like quite a positive rise in the last hour 1pm-2pm UK time. So long as it doesn't go below $850 I will not be too worried. King of gold called the fall yesterday morning accurately. How often does he get it right? Had I of taken some profit at that time I would have made a few grand now.

 

I'm confident that gold will make good progress from July, August time.

 

Az

 

Does it mean that if it goes below $850, you'll be panicking? :blink:

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