GOLD

[alexreeve]

You think we will make a quick comeback from here? Looks like quite a positive rise in the last hour 1pm-2pm UK time. So long as it doesn't go below $850 I will not be too worried. King of gold called the fall yesterday morning accurately. How often does he get it right? Had I of taken some profit at that time I would have made a few grand now.

 

I'm confident that gold will make good progress from July, August time.

 

Az

Have you got a link? I'm not familiar with the name. Thanks

[G0ldfinger]

Have you got a link? I'm not familiar with the name. Thanks

I guess it's a GIMer.

 

Oil has a little correction, so gold goes down. NOTE: gold always goes down with oil, but it never goes up with it. OK, that was a cross generalization here. Anyway, patience. The fundamentals are all in place.

[torino]

I am preparing myself to get into gold.

 

- If gold now goes > $950 : does it mean it will from then go up and up?

- If gold goes < $850 : does it mean it will go further down?

 

 

[azazel]

Does it mean that if it goes below $850, you'll be panicking?

 

No. But Jim Sinclair said that the low would be in by the first week in May and he seemed to be correct which encourages me that his other views are correct which I will be happy with.

 

 

[torino]

 

I don't know much about gold.

Would you say now would be a good moment to buy and hold till july/august at least,

or is it better to wait till june/july/august?

[azazel]

I don't know much about gold.

Would you say now would be a good moment to buy and hold till july/august at least,

or is it better to wait till june/july/august?

 

This could be the last opportunity to buy at a low before a large move up in late summer. You could wait until there is a definite up leg. Best to be in for the long term, years not months. But who really knows?

[Bobsta]

I jsut spent $30 for a stopgap, but GEI may die within a few days...

 

 

 

Growing isnt the issue. Staying alive at all is.

 

The guy who has been doing the hosting said he is losing money doing it, and he is booting me out within a few days.

I have found a temporary solution, that will cost $30 a month. Advertsising makes maybe $20 a month. I can afford

a small subsidy, but not $250-280 per month for GEI.

 

Another possibility is to charge $3-5 per month, but I think that will kill GEI stone dead

 

If I can find another better solution, that doesnt require me to learn all about hosting and internet, I will do so.

Dr Bubb,

 

Please don't panic. I'm currently on holiday in Thailand so am not in much of a position to help BUT I spent many years working in the hosting business and have a server hosted in London that may suit your needs. As I say, I can't do much now (the missus is nagging me about being on my phone at all) but if you keep the Good Ship GEI going for another 10 days and drop me a line, I'm sure I can sort something out to help.

 

Bobsta

[notanewmember]

I hope a solution is found soon for GEI. Perhaps this credit crunch has further reaching consequences than one could imagine.

 

If i wake up and find we are gone then i ll have to find you all on HPc again

[CIGA]

I don't know much about gold.

Would you say now would be a good moment to buy and hold till july/august at least,

or is it better to wait till june/july/august?

 

 

By far the one and truly true proven recipe for success, especially for newbies on a buy and hold strategy is to DOLLAR COST AVERAGE.

 

Buy the same amount every month or twice a month and buy more on any sign of a pullback.

 

 

Do not try to second guess gold.

[G0ldfinger]

S&P Downgrades $34 Billion of Bonds Backed by Alt-A Mortgages

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

 

Little article, big consequences? Or is it all 'priced in' already? If not, we're possibly soon going to see the big pension meltdown...

[Newbear]

I don't know much about gold.

Would you say now would be a good moment to buy and hold till july/august at least,

or is it better to wait till june/july/august?

 

How about buy and hold until july/august 2012 at least?

 

Otherwise I think CIGA's point about cost averaging is spot on.

[wren]

I hope a solution is found soon for GEI. Perhaps this credit crunch has further reaching consequences than one could imagine.

 

If i wake up and find we are gone then i ll have to find you all on HPc again

If this site goes down for while we can meet at globalhousepricecrash.com which is friendlier.

 

DrBubb has already asked over there on this thread:

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ind...showtopic=32386

 

[Steve Netwriter]

Pop Quiz:

 

In part related to my musings over on the silver thread http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=39913 I'd be really interested to gauge what the structure of people's portfolios looks like right now, and how you might like it to look if you are in the middle of "re-structuring". You don't have to include absolute values I'm just looking for percentages. I'll start:

 

Before:

Cash 89%

Equities (UK retail and credit) 11%

 

Current:

Cash 52%

Physical gold and silver 11%

PM Juniors 13%

Gold and silver futures 8%

FX deals (NOK and JPY)3%

Emerging markets and divesified commodities (inc energy) 13%

 

Soon:

Cash 20%

Physical gold and silver 11%

PM Juniors 12%

Gold and silver futures 17%

Emerging markets and divesified commodities (inc energy)40%

 

A large percentage in gold & silver. Physical allocated REAL gold & silver

I recently (at the low) increased the percentage of silver, based on my theory that it's a good idea to increase the percentage of the volatile silver bull near a bottom, and to reduce that near peaks. Time will tell if that is correct and if I can time it well.

Also Yen. As a Yen account. This I consider the most risky part, as it's fiat money in bank accounts !

Nothing at all requiring a Broker, as I'm super worried about all things counter-party.

 

[Steve Netwriter]

I don't know much about gold.

Would you say now would be a good moment to buy and hold till july/august at least,

or is it better to wait till june/july/august?

 

I agree with the idea of averaging in.

But there are a few other points.

 

1. If you have no gold/silver, then your have no insurance. So one could argue that you need to buy at least a bit immediately you see the need for insurance.

 

2. I think with experience (preferably more than I have ), you can gain a more long-term view, and smooth out the troughs of depression and the peaks of excessive enthusiasm and worry. With a more long-term perspective, you can spot times at which the potential rewards look larger than the potential short-term risks.

 

This is easier spotted with hindsight

 

So, the recent quick rise to above $1000 had many people warning of an overbought condition, and the potential for a drop.

At such times you balance the need and desire for insurance against the risk of a short-term drop.

You may buy, being quite convinced that the price will drop, but being happier to be an owner of something with no counter-party risk.

 

At other times, as happened when the price dropped to $850, IMO it was a perfect buying time.

The mood on places like this was quite depressed.

The best time to buy is when everyone around you is worried and half thinking of pulling out.

 

This all assumes you start with a clear view that gold/silver are in a long-term bull phase.

If not, then you're going to be prone to massive mood shifts.

 

Now at ~$900 IMO is another good buying time. Yes it might drop to $850. Might. It might drop lower. But IMO the most likely is a rising series of dips.

If that is correct, then $850 was the best one, and this is the 2nd to best you'll get.

 

If you start with the view that you will hold for at least a year, then these small variations will appear irrelevant in a years time.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again. First set your mind to this simple principle.

I will buy and hold no matter what. I will not sell and give my money to the manipulators.

 

From my experience, the only regret I have is not learning more earlier, and not buying more sooner.

The earlier you buy into a bull market, the more you make, and the safer it is.

 

Just my thoughts, for what it's worth.

 

[drbubb]

Dr Bubb,

 

Please don't panic. I'm currently on holiday in Thailand so am not in much of a position to help BUT I spent many years working in the hosting business and have a server hosted in London that may suit your needs. As I say, I can't do much now (the missus is nagging me about being on my phone at all) but if you keep the Good Ship GEI going for another 10 days and drop me a line, I'm sure I can sort something out to help.

 

Bobsta

 

Thanks for those words Bob.

I think the stopgap may work for at least a few days.

 

Maybe we shoudl meet when i am back in london in late June

 

[ologhai]

What does London have against gold suddenly?

 

I now fondly recall those days when NY used to knock down the sand-castles we'd only just built!

 

What changed I wonder...

[G0ldfinger]

 

This is worse than even I ever could have imagined! House prices: -2.5% in one single month! -4.4% year on year already! CRASH & BURN. Keep in mind, we are only half a year into this crash!

 

Scotsmen, make no mistake: like many other nasty things that came up from England, this will not stop at Hadrian's Wall.

 

As far as practicable, I would strongly advise everyone to get their assets out of anything related to the UK ASAP. UK banks are up to their eyeballs in UK property, and so is the UK consumer. That means everyone will lose money, consumer spending falls off the cliff, tax revenues shrink, the government deficit will explode, and Sterling will be flushed further down the toilet. This however will increase price pressures on the consumer, and the vicious circle is perfect.

 

Note that Turdling/Sterling was one of the few currencies recently that slumped even faster than the US Dollar. This is a malicious double whammy for home owners.

 

As George Soros says, this economic slump will be worse than the 70s. Biggest boom ever, biggest bust ever.

 

Here is the bright side:

 

- The average house owner now loses £5,000 per month. If you're not a house owner, think of all the money you don't lose!

 

- Houses will be EXTREMELY cheap in 5-10 years time, and affordable in 2-3 years time. Cash buyers will rule.

 

- Money is to be made in hard assets (commodities, energy, food).

 

- Inflation will rage. Precious metals are your lifeboat.

 

- House price crashes can be fun, simply watch this here (from the early 90s crash): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2t8YTvdYXws

 

Spare a thought for the property speculators who now lose £25,000 per month per every million in property value. I almost start crying.

 

GF

 

U.K. House Prices Drop the Most Since 1991, Nationwide Says

 

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices fell in May by the

most in at least 17 years as the shortage of credit starved

the property market of buyers, Nationwide Building Society

said.

 

The price of an average home dropped 2.5 percent from April

to 173,583 pounds ($344,000), Britain's fourth-biggest

mortgage lender said today in a statement. That's the biggest

drop since the index started in January 1991. From a year

earlier, prices fell 4.4 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

 

[azazel]

Thanks for those words Bob.

I think the stopgap may work for at least a few days.

 

Maybe we shoudl meet when i am back in london in late June

 

Keeps us all updated please. If you need us to chip in, I will what I can.

[Steve Netwriter]

Wow, 2.5% in one month !

 

[Steve Netwriter]

House prices: Welcome to the bust

 

The raw statistics tell only part of the story but are important nonetheless. House prices have fallen for seven successive months, the longest run of declines since the Nationwide index was first published during the property crash of the early 1990s.

 

At an annual rate, prices are now down by 4.4% - the sharpest fall since late 1992. Over the past six months, prices have dropped at annual rate of 11.4% and over the past three months at a whopping 16.1% annualised rate. Both represent more pronounced drops in selling prices than were seen in the early 1990s.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/ma...et.houseprices1

 

 

[drbubb]

This is worse than even I ever could have imagined! House prices: -2.5% in one single month! -4.4% year on year already! CRASH & BURN. Keep in mind, we are only half a year into this crash!

 

This is rapid-fast "crash cruise speed"

 

-4.4% in year... soon that will be: -10%, -12%, -15% or more y-o-y.

 

The bulls are starting to get what they deserve for their: greed and stupidity.

The prudent man is winning out

[Steve Netwriter]

This is a rather interesting read on the government hate of gold.

 

The Next Attack on Gold Has Begun

 

by Gary North

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north630.html

 

This is regarded with great hostility by national governments and central banks. National governments ever since 1914 have worked with central banks to remove gold from circulation as money. This began with the outbreak of World War I. It has never ceased.

 

The development of the credit card was the culmination of a dream of every fractional reserve banker. Bankers in a fractional reserve system have always feared the withdrawal of currency by depositors. This reverses the fractional reserve process. It shrinks the money supply.

 

By substituting digits for currency, bankers have solved this problem. A depositor can move digital money out of his account, but it is transferred to another digital account. The system does not lose deposits. When someone withdraws currency and does not redeposit it, the money supply declines. So, credit cards are a banker's dream come true. The threat of bank runs by depositors has ended.

 

There is a rather big eBook which looks good here:

 

http://www.garynorth.com/goldwars.pdf

 

Worth a read.

 

Please note:

 

My advice is that we should take advantage of the governments' schizophrenia. If we can legally buy a little future freedom, we should.

 

I recommend using digital gold storage facilities that are legally incorporated outside the United States, and whose vaults are also outside. But the little guy should first buy gold coins issued by his nation's mint. Maybe after the first $10,000, he should consider an off-shore vault program.

 

 

[Steve Netwriter]

IMO this side of things out-ways the worry of a short-term drop.

 

 

Imminent Banking Stocks Destruction to Push Gold Back through $1,000

2008 May 28, 2008

By: Jim_Willie_CB

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4866.html

 

The topping process is underway. Bank destruction will push the gold price back above 1000 again, at a time when the energy prices soften. This should vastly improve the business profitability of mining companies. The totally unreported story lately is that banks face larger losses, as housing prices continue their historic decline, ensuring profound additional bond losses. Banks have openly admitted it. Watch for the bond insurers to basically go bust, belly up, after failing to replace their capital core. The charts tell the story. The financial press networks do not, as they continue to obey their advertisers who pay the bills and dictate the messages, even if totally false. This USGovt Administration might do well to formalize a new cabinet post, Secy of Information, in keeping with a tradition started seventy years ago in Berlin .

 

When the system reacts to the next round of bank losses, the further breakdown of the US Economy, and the ongoing corporate failures complete with mammoth job losses, the response will be of vast US Federal Reserve and USGovt stimulus, rescue, and actual programs. We are at the verge of an even more relentless rise in monetary inflation. It requires pressure valves. The recent beneficiary has been crude oil, but next is gold & silver.

 

[G0ldfinger]

What does London have against gold suddenly?

...

Spain going a little bankrupt and selling physical?

[alexreeve]

Going back to $850 one last time?