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The current gold chart pattern (correction/consolidation) that has formed since the March $1028 high looks very similar to the pattern that formed in November and first half of December 2007 and second half July and August 2007. Both of the 2007 events preceded a large leg up. The current pattern looks like a larger version of the one before.

 

Does this indicate a big rise coming?

 

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...

I'm not as bothered by fractional reserves and fiat as some people here. I think all monetary systems have flaws, and need wise and careful regulation. Which is what we have lacked in recent decades.

Can't quite see what kind of regulation would do good to a free physical gold and silver standard. Well, yes, naked shortselling (paper gold) should be forbidden.

 

Usually nothing is more wise and careful than a truly free market.

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A quick calculation.....the result makes sense with the consensus of the board so I though this worth sharing.....

 

Enclosed is a chart projecting UK average house prices (in £) into the future. The quarterly percentage drops are equal to those of the early 1990s crash (RPI at 4.2% factored in)

 

As you can see, nominal house prices bottom at around £110,000 in 2014 assuming the same crash kinetics (it may well be worse this time).

Assume gold price of $1650 by then (good consensus of that as a long term target).

Assume 1.8 dollars to the pound (my personal opinion, I think the pound will weaken even more horribly than the dollar long term).

 

2014 UK average house price in Troy oz gold:

 

110,000 / (1650/1.8) = 120 oz

 

120 troy ounces is close to the 100 oz historical value mentioned by a few veterans on here, such as Goldfinger.

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Its as if the scale has been enlarged each time and this time it looks massive, if it turns out to be the case.

 

If this pattern repeats then the $1200 correction will also be massive, Gulp!

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I think the argument for gold as insurance looks better than the argument for gold as a store of wealth, to be honest.

 

I see gold as an insurance and an inflation hedge.

But if your aim is to buy a house in the UK, its a handy way of building up a deposit given the housing/finance conditions likely over the next few years.

 

(for the record, my plan is to emigrate the UK)

 

 

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Is it possible to add an attachment (MS Word file) to a Personal Message? Just that I would PM a proofread of DrBubb's article to him.

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Looks from the Bullionvault information as though there's a continuing steady rise in their gold.... the rise tailing off a little if anything.

 

Strange how the amount of cash that the 46,000 users have on hand corresponds so closely to the price of gold. I'd guess that's buying occuring on dips.

 

Also, the distribution of cash has moved away from pounds towards euros. Seems like Brits have been buying gold or withdrawing cash, while Europeans have either been selling or charging their accounts. I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess it's the buying and charging option.

 

Any thoughts?

 

W.

 

 

Interesting site here from a guy at Itulip Bullion Vault Watch

 

http://www.bullionvaultwatch.blogspot.com/...kk.blogspot.com

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Is it possible to add an attachment (MS Word file) to a Personal Message? Just that I would PM a proofread of DrBubb's article to him.

Okay. I posted it to the thread, so no prob.

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Sorry for the delay. Just watching 10.5 Apocalypse :D

 

I could not bring myself to watch the whole program, too many 'soon to be hero's despite them being down trodden / persecuted / involved in mistakes that killed people before (delete as appropriate)' and not enough DISASTER :lol: !

 

And boy, don't FEMA look really cool and efficient, evacuating all of Hawaii in hours, having real time thermal imaging of anywhere in the US. I wonder why they didn't use that office and those workers in New Orleans?

 

On a slightly different note, I saw the other day that you said in NZ we have a greater need for 4wd vehicles than elsewhere due to the crappy driving abilities of others and the more common 'mettalled' roads around. I have been thinking about that and would argue that the vaste majority of people only ever drive around town here and could easily get smaller cars. And if they all had smaller cars then there would be no need to worry about them crashing in to you (well any more than if everyone has 4x4's)! Just a thought.

 

Sorry, shouldn't hijack the gold thread, keep up the good work all guru's out there, very interesting discussions as always and although I have very little background in PM's I think we might be building up energy for a big push up. $1000 by end of July, rest there till Sep then onwards and upwards.

 

 

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Not sure about that. Surely it's the lending of money at interest that is really at the heart of a lot of these issues. Usury in other words. Which is why fractional reserve banking works (from a bankers point of view).

 

I'm not as bothered by fractional reserves and fiat as some people here. I think all monetary systems have flaws, and need wise and careful regulation. Which is what we have lacked in recent decades.

I'd agree usury is certainly a core part of the issues, not because making a profit from lending is a problem in itself, but because charging a predetermined fixed rate of return decouples the lender's interests from the borrower's. On the other hand, if the lender's return is based on an equitable share of the success of the borrower's enterprise then the lender is incentivised to invest more wisely and also to take a longer term view regarding financing, rather than the current situation of handing out umbrellas like there's no tomorrow when it's sunny and taking them all back when it rains.

 

Fractional reserve banking just compounds the problems with interest (vs equity) based lending, because the banks then hardly need to use any of their own capital and this gearing encourages short term, high-risk investing, which is further compounded by the 'privatise-the-profit's, socialise the losses' nature of fiat/central banking.

 

If interest is a financial hand grenade, then fractional reserve banking amplifies its destructive power to that of a thermobaric bomb, and the addition of fiat and central banking takes whole mess to thermonuclear proportions.

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I can do a proof-read and post comments in the following thread (the open thread on the article) in a couple of hours :

http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....=3102&st=20

 

It's easiest if I track edits in MS word and send the file. Is that okay?

 

Thanks for those comments, Wren.

Very helpful indeed! You make better use of ";", than my ","

 

Where we once had the Royal "we", we now have a "Gordonian Not"- where things are not getting done sensibly,

thanks to the man at the top.

 

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Not sure about that. Surely it's the lending of money at interest that is really at the heart of a lot of these issues. Usury in other words. Which is why fractional reserve banking works (from a bankers point of view).

 

I'm not as bothered by fractional reserves and fiat as some people here. I think all monetary systems have flaws, and need wise and careful regulation. Which is what we have lacked in recent decades.

yes but the main problem with fiat ones is that they give certain people ultimate power (for a time) - if they were not corrupt that wouldn't be a problem

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yes but the main problem with fiat ones is that they give certain people ultimate power (for a time) - if they were not corrupt that wouldn't be a problem

 

There's an imbalance of power in most, probably all human systems.

 

Before you had fiat currency, you had governments, self-declared aristocracies, and other states with armies and taxmen. Governments (and kings) were fond of grabbing some more money/gold from other states or from their citizens - indeed when gold ran short this was often their best option.

 

Meanwhile there wasn't an effective system for financing capital projects. Which is why usury and the issuing of shares became more prevalent after the middle ages. There's a degree to which these were the financial factors behind the industrial revolution, all that 'token money' which helped to build the railways, canals etc.

 

I think it's easy to be too utopian about an the imagined virtues of alternative systems. Personally I think the more pressing issue is to argue for better regulation of the current system to create better checks and balances on those who tend to abuse their power within it.

 

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I'd agree usury is certainly a core part of the issues, not because making a profit from lending is a problem in itself, but because charging a predetermined fixed rate of return decouples the lender's interests from the borrower's. On the other hand, if the lender's return is based on an equitable share of the success of the borrower's enterprise then the lender is incentivised to invest more wisely and also to take a longer term view regarding financing, rather than the current situation of handing out umbrellas like there's no tomorrow when it's sunny and taking them all back when it rains.

 

That's an interesting distinction. I'm not convinced that a system of equity shares would have been sufficient to create the industrial revolution and the modern age, or that a fixed money supply is the solution to all financial folly, but I do agree there are slightly different moral aspects to the two forms of lending, and that usury demands an extra level of concern and attention.

 

Fractional reserve banking just compounds the problems with interest (vs equity) based lending, because the banks then hardly need to use any of their own capital and this gearing encourages short term, high-risk investing, which is further compounded by the 'privatise-the-profit's, socialise the losses' nature of fiat/central banking.

 

If interest is a financial hand grenade, then fractional reserve banking amplifies its destructive power to that of a thermobaric bomb, and the addition of fiat and central banking takes whole mess to thermonuclear proportions.

 

I'd just see that as an argument for regulating banks strongly in their capital requirements. If you have stringent capital requirements, and don't allow any off-balance sheet malarkey, then you have the advantages of a flexible money supply, but far less incentive for insane short-termism on the banks part.

 

The central bank's role as lender of last resort only makes sense if the central bank/government also makes it clear that this only applies to banks who comply with strict rules of behaviour. What we have seen in the last decade is an abdication of this responsibility by government, who fell for the ludicrous theory that only bankers know how they should be regulated.

 

 

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Britain full of empty homes? That's good! My rent will fall.

 

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/48055/what-h...g-shortage.html

So how many empty houses are there?

 

The Empty Homes Agency estimates there are 840,000 empty homes in Britain, almost 4% of the total housing stock.The National Land Use figures indicate that a further 420,000 homes could be established in disused commercial properties in England, including former pubs and space above shops. So that’s 1.26 million extra homes.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-and-guns.html

 

This has been discussed many times here.

 

Do you have a Safety Deposit box ??? You must be a terrorist / criminal :lol:

 

fixed link - Safety Deposit Box Raid

 

OMG - I nearly opened an account there 2 months ago. Glad I didn't now. Will be interesting to find out how the innocents will be treated. Will they need itemised receipts to reclaim their things?

 

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fixed link - Safety Deposit Box Raid

 

OMG - I nearly opened an account there 2 months ago. Glad I didn't now. Will be interesting to find out how the innocents will be treated. Will they need itemised receipts to reclaim their things?

With a presumption of guilt, they don't appear to have the option of not having their safety deposit box opened and inspected.

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With a presumption of guilt, they don't appear to have the option of not having their safety deposit box opened and inspected.

 

Does seem pretty shabby for those who are having to phone some line to claim their stuff back, and presumably being treated like criminals while they're about it.

 

 

 

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With a presumption of guilt, they don't appear to have the option of not having their safety deposit box opened and inspected.

 

I read the article as ALL the boxes will be opened by the police. Its then up to you to phone them and claim your property back. In the process flagging yourself up on the system :blink:

 

What if your assets and asset receipts are all in the box ??? How can you prove ownership ????? scary stuff :unsure:

 

Lots of people here and over at GIM have talked about this very problem.

 

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