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I'm gutted I wasn't here to add to what sounds like it was a heck of a party on GEI - a good few pages of quickfire posts complete with a rollercoaster of emotion. A genuine pleasure to read :lol:

 

I did, however, have a cheeky buy stop order on WTI come in at $134.55 with an 85pip trailing stop which took profits at $137.50. A fantastic Friday night on the lash in Bangkok and a nice profit at the expense of the greenback as well . . . perfect.

 

 

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I'm gutted I wasn't here to add to what sounds like it was a heck of a party on GEI - a good few pages of quickfire posts complete with a rollercoaster of emotion. A genuine pleasure to read :lol:

 

I did, however, have a cheeky buy stop order on WTI come in at $134.55 with an 85pip trailing stop which took profits at $137.50. A fantastic Friday night on the lash in Bangkok and a nice profit at the expense of the greenback as well . . . perfect.

A great day for gold and silver!!

 

There are great scaremongering stories of oil price crisis leading the BBC evening news

(but apparently it's concerns over relations between Israel and Iran, not the weak dollar :angry: )

 

Gold and silver still need careful nursing and observation for a while yet though.

This is what I prescribe to keep prices heading upwards for the rest of 2008........

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Time for a little war?

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7440472.stm

 

"A top Israeli official has said that if Iran continues with its alleged nuclear arms programme, Israel will attack it. "

 

The rhetoric coming from Israel (with its *cough* 150 illegal nuclear weapons *cough*) has increased in recent days. It maybe because Obama has the nomination and he is ever so slightly less likely to want to start invading countries compared to Clinton and McCain. Anyway, the politics don't matter as my question is what do you think will happen when:

1. Israel unilaterally attacks / nukes Iran and it all kicks off in the middle east?

2. Bush decides to 'support his ally', declares a state of war and doesn't leave office for an extra couple of years?

 

Gold is going up in both situations I think, mainly due to the complete instability the war will bring to the oil market?

 

Cheers

Sylvester

 

EDIT:

There are great scaremongering stories of oil price crisis leading the BBC evening news

 

Doh! Bad timing on my part, now I look like a scaremongerer! ;)

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Heads up..........

 

Money Program / BBC next week about Gold investing.

 

Is this a bad sign or just the start of the awakening ???

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The great thing about being in NZ is we get the news 'first' here :D

But, we get to miss all the excitement, specially on Fridays like this one :blink:

 

Can I name this "Fantastic Friday" ?

 

Oil up

Gold up

Silver up

Market....DOWN

Sentiment.....turning realistic ?

 

 

I just got this from Jim S :unsure: :unsure: :unsure:

 

Posted On: Friday, June 06, 2008, 6:30:00 PM EST

 

A Note For Those Holding Gold In The Land Down Under

Author: Jim Sinclair

 

Dear Friends,

 

Those of you that hold gold bullion in the land Down Under should check up on it.

 

Respectfully yours,

Jim

 

Is he I wonder talking about the Perth Mint ?

 

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The great thing about being in NZ is we get the news 'first' here :D

But, we get to miss all the excitement, specially on Fridays like this one :blink:

 

Can I name this "Fantastic Friday" ?

 

Oil up

Gold up

Silver up

Market....DOWN

Sentiment.....turning realistic ?

 

 

I just got this from Jim S :unsure: :unsure: :unsure:

 

 

 

Is he I wonder talking about the Perth Mint ?

 

Maybe he's talking about this http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23819502-421,00.html

 

Asian union could end Aussie dollar

 

Discussed on GIM http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=271528

 

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A UNIFIED currency and open borders could follow any union between Australia and Asia, an expert says.

 

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd yesterday announced his plan to create a broad Asia-Pacific Community by 2020.

 

Asian legal expert Prof Tim Lindsey of Melbourne University said it was too early to speculate about a unified euro-style currency, but it could follow any international pact.

 

Wow, stunning :blink: :blink:

Thanks for that.

 

But, I don't think that's what Jim was talking about. I'll have to go look.......

 

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Time for a little war?

quote]

 

I missed this news item. Thanks for bringing it here.

 

This Iran thing won't go away. Their hand has been strengthened massively with the Iraq war. I think Israel will, with the full support of the US, destory/damage the Iranian facilities. They wiped out the Syrian nuclear effort without any backlash. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/worl...icle2983719.ece

 

The Iranians will not lie down so easily and I do wonder what the Iranian charter fleet of oil tankers are doing tied up in port. I can't believe this is a sensible way of storing oil. But they would be a very good "environmental" shield parked in the Strait of Hormoz. Just imagine all that oil washing up on the beaches of Dubai and other aspiring Gulf states if they were sunk.

 

Oil will go into orbit if this escalates.

 

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Cheers. :)

 

A thread on a fake Sovereign on GIM. Maybe of interest to some of you as well.

 

http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=271336

 

 

 

Thanks for that link Goldfinger. It is a bit worrying for me as I'm no expert and the sovereign has recently become my coin of choice.

I use coininvestdirect, I just hope they are trustworthy.

 

I'm going to inspect my sovs now!

 

 

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The Shorterz are $h1tting themselves right now. The game is up!

 

They'll be comforting themselves that oil / gold etc are just speculation driven and there are no fundamentals supporting the prices and things will turn their way soon.

 

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It's Not A Dollar Crisis: It's A Gold Crisis

by Antal E. Fekete

June 05, 2008

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10433.htm

 

The title is a bow to Peter Schiff for his admirable article It's Not an Oil Crisis: It's a Dollar Crisis.

....

Gold Standard University Live is the only organization that advocates paying attention to features such as silver and gold contango, backwardation, basis, and short squeeze. The vocabulary of analysts and other observers of the passing scene doesn't even include these market terms. They follow statistics of production and off-take, the commitments of traders in the futures market, and are trying to divine coming moves in the gold and silver price through supply and demand equilibrium analysis. Theirs is a wrong-headed approach. Supply and demand equilibrium analysis is inapplicable to the monetary metals, both the supply of and the demand for which tend to be unlimited. That's just what makes gold and silver a monetary metal. Nevertheless, the threat of a short squeeze or, if the worse comes to the worst, that of a corner, is very real. Corner in precious metals also goes by the other name hyperinflation. Reams and reams of supply/demand statistics and all the COT reports in the world will not predict when it will hit. Only the basis will. It provides an early-warning system indicating, with the precision of a seismograph, the escalating shortages in silver and gold. And only Gold Standard University Live is willing, "without fear or favor", to publish the results of research which tell you how to read basis signals.

 

In summary, the present crisis is far from over. Far from being an oil crisis, it is not even a dollar crisis. It is a gold crisis. It is preying on American and other banks, punishing them for their failure to hedge paper assets with gold. The U.S. government is trying to bail out large multinational banks by stuffing them with more paper assets to bursting. In a recent move the Federal Reserve has made history when it swapped U.S. Treasury bonds for the so-called asset-backed securities held by brain-dead banks for which the market refuses to put in a bid. The trick won't work. And it is doubtful that the only meaningful bail-out that would work, namely, opening the U.S. Mint to gold and silver as advocated by presidential candidate Dr. Ron Paul, is in the cards. To be sure, opening the Mint to the monetary metals should work. It would make U.S. Treasury gold available to American banks, to save them from insolvency. What they need is not augmentation of capital in the form of more paper credits. What they need is metallic hedges to prop up the value of paper assets. Opening the Mint would mobilize the world's metallic reserves, presently in hiding, and put them back into the public domain to assume their traditional role as the foundation of the world's credit system.

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Credit Bubble Bulletin, by Doug Noland

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/Credi...bleBulletinHome

 

It was a week where Mr. Trichet warned that inflationary pressure may force the ECB to raise rates again. Central banks around the world are feeling increasing pressure to tighten. Here at home, chairman Bernanke voiced the Fed’s concern with the inflation backdrop, while making notable comments to support of the dollar. The markets took Mr. Trichet’s comments seriously and, not surprisingly, essentially disregarded Mr. Bernanke. The Fed has left itself no leeway - and little credibility.

 

Bernanke also suggested that sustainable U.S. economic growth would be the most important factor supporting the dollar. I’ll continue to argue passionately that the current trajectory of U.S. Credit expansion and today’s unsound Economic Structure are highly inflationary and a dollar disaster. Importantly, today’s dollar outflows hit a world already inundated with excess dollar balances – not to mention domestic Credit excesses almost across the globe. It is also my view that current Monetary Processes and the trajectory of U.S. and global imbalances ensure further ballooning of the massive Global Pool of Speculative Finance. Indeed, this “Pool” is at the epicenter of today’s most intense inflationary and speculative biases – biases that are being thrust to blow-off extremes by the latest round of aggressive Fed reflation (think NASDAQ1999 or U.S. mortgages 2006).

 

There were important developments this week that seemed to indicate an important inflection point may have been reached. Energy price instability took a decided turn for the worst; global inflationary concerns ratcheted higher; dollar vulnerability reemerged; financial stocks were crushed; and, importantly, the U.S. Credit system demonstrated its greatest instability in a couple of months. And while the U.S. Bubble Economy has proved relatively resilient thus far, sinking stock prices and a further tightening of Financial Conditions would at this point prove too much to bear. I’ll also venture a presumption that all the excitement – along with the unwind of hedges – instigated by the Fed’s bailouts could now be a source of added instability. Rampant speculation has taken hold and will remain well-embedded until the bust.

 

To be sure, there are huge costs associated with endeavors to sustain a Bubble Economy. Some are now readily apparent.

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Next Phase of the Credit Crisis to Hit Credit Default Swaps $62 Trillion Market

Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008 Jun 07, 2008 - 04:13 AM

By: F_William_Engdahl

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4984.html

 

Like many exotic financial products which are extremely complex and profitable in times of easy credit, when markets reverse, as has been the case since August 2007, in addition to spreading risk, credit derivatives, in this case, also amplify risk considerably.

 

Now the other shoe is about to drop in the $62 trillion CDS market due to rising junk bond defaults by US corporations as the recession deepens. That market has long been a disaster in the making. An estimated $1,2 trillion could be at risk of the nominal $62 trillion in CDOs outstanding, making it far larger than the sub-prime market.

 

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Done. What do you think about this 1927 SA Sovereign? Looks pretty fake to me. And what does "J21" mean? :unsure:

 

Regarding the sovereign, the raised edges are quite delicate and can get worn like in the image if used in a pendant or ring over many years. I have some similar. (or maybe I have a fake to??? dooh)

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Regarding the sovereign, the raised edges are quite delicate and can get worn like in the image if used in a pendant or ring over many years. I have some similar. (or maybe I have a fake to??? dooh)

I am no expert but enrieb's explanation that it could be a replica for jewellery (and therefore is marked with "J21", whatever that means) makes sense. It's still gold. HOWEVER, selling the coin as a Sovereign (incl. premium) still makes it fraud when done knowingly.

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Reading this one again:

 

It's Not A Dollar Crisis: It's A Gold Crisis

by Antal E. Fekete

June 05, 2008

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10433.htm

 

Can anyone explain this bit ?

 

Gold Standard University Live is the only organization that advocates paying attention to features such as silver and gold contango, backwardation, basis, and short squeeze. The vocabulary of analysts and other observers of the passing scene doesn't even include these market terms. They follow statistics of production and off-take, the commitments of traders in the futures market, and are trying to divine coming moves in the gold and silver price through supply and demand equilibrium analysis. Theirs is a wrong-headed approach. Supply and demand equilibrium analysis is inapplicable to the monetary metals, both the supply of and the demand for which tend to be unlimited.

 

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Woh, still coming down from yesterday :-) Sadly London closed before the real liveliness kicked in late on in the session so I can't wait for Monday morning to see the impact feed through to the Lonond-listed ETFs. It also seemed that oil just wanted to keep on running, the pit limits kicked in but the electronic trading just drove it up and up so the prospects for NY opening are very exciting :-)

 

Great to see Gold finally made a new P&F double-top breakout yesterday and looking great for a run from here. The chart says $980 but there's a few hurdles on the way:

sharpchartv05vs1.png

 

Similarly oil is in new territory after its own double-top breakout with a indicative objective of $172:

sharpchartv05xd4.png

 

What has me intrigued though is the gold-to-oil ratio which broke sharply downwards yesterday and shows no sign of perking up:

sharpchartv05servletdribb8.png

 

It shows absolutely no sign of halting its fall and even though there is possibility (but no indication) of a bounce it is such a long way from the historic mean. Does anyone have any scenarios or thoughts on this as it isn't a metric I've studied until recently? Whilst I think tensions will keep oil high, I'm hoping that those factors will spurt gold on and the pull of the ratio will cause gold to outperform. Even if the ratio only spiked back to the downtrend line at circa 8x that implies $1100 gold at $138 oil. $1376 gold at $172 oil and I'll wee myself if I think of $172 oil on the historic ratio. In reality of course, I expect the ratio will ease due to falling oil but there still seems good short-term upside and potential for a medium term run from here.

 

To end on a more sobering note, silver is still testing its up-trend but may form a new bullish pattern next week:

sharpchartv05bs9.png

 

The gold-to-silver ratio is still bearish but, again, may bounce next week. I'm not even going to do the sums on that one!!

 

Woody

 

 

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Reading this one again:

 

It's Not A Dollar Crisis: It's A Gold Crisis

by Antal E. Fekete

June 05, 2008

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10433.htm

 

Can anyone explain this bit ?

Gold Standard University Live is the only organization that advocates paying attention to features such as silver and gold contango, backwardation, basis, and short squeeze.

was this what you meant, Steve?

 

Contango means the futures price exceeds spot.

from wikipedia:

Formally, it is the situation where, and the amount by which, the price of a commodity for future delivery is higher than the spot price, or a far future delivery price higher than a nearer future delivery.

A contango is normal for a non-perishable commodity which has a cost of carry. Such costs include warehousing fees and interest forgone on money tied up, less income from leasing out the commodity if possible (e.g. gold).

The contango should not exceed the cost of carry, because producers and consumers can compare the futures contract price against the spot price plus storage, and choose the better one. Arbitrageurs can sell one and buy the other for a risk-free profit

 

 

backwardation from same:

If there is a near-term shortage, the price comparison breaks down and contango may be reduced or perhaps even reverse altogether into a state called backwardation. In that state, near prices become higher than far (i.e., future) prices because consumers prefer to have the product sooner rather than later (see convenience yield), and because there are few holders who can make an arbitrage profit by selling the spot and buying back the future. A market that is steeply backwardated — i.e., one where there is a very steep premium for material available for immediate delivery — often indicates a perception of a current shortage in the underlying commodity. By the same token, a market that is deeply in contango may indicate a perception of a current supply surplus in the commodity.

 

I'm sure you know a short squeeze occurs as shorts are 'stopped out' and forced to buy by a move up (against them), thus magnifying the move up immensely.

 

Sorry if this is patronizing.

Chris

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Reading this one again:

 

It's Not A Dollar Crisis: It's A Gold Crisis

by Antal E. Fekete

June 05, 2008

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10433.htm

 

Can anyone explain this bit ?

 

I'd never heard of basis before this article Steve but from his explanation earlier in the article the other terms describe the position of the futures price to the basis price, which I now understand to be the price it comes out the ground at. If in contango, with a futures price ahead of the basis price, producers are inclined to go short in the futures market as a hedge. If in backwardation they get squeezed on existing shorts and stay out of the futures market as they're already long. The normal position is contango and backwardation is rare. His point is those guys are studying the moves here to try and gauge the supply status.

 

I could be a million miles away with that interpretation!!

 

Woody

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wrt to the comments on the perth mint - some people have apparently complained about delays of delivery of unallocated metal. There is some discussion on topic here http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1211570804.php and Peter Schiff addressed the issue during his radio broadcast this week. I am invested with Perth mint certificates and inclined to believe their explanation, that this is a production (as in fabrication) delay broadly resulting from them having to melt down 1000 ounce bars to cast them into something smaller. The talk on silverseek seems over dramatic to me but I would welcome other's opinion on this. At the moment I am inclined to believe that the WA government is a pretty solid debtor.

matt

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wrt to the comments on the perth mint - some people have apparently complained about delays of delivery of unallocated metal. There is some discussion on topic here http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1211570804.php and Peter Schiff addressed the issue during his radio broadcast this week. I am invested with Perth mint certificates and inclined to believe their explanation, that this is a production (as in fabrication) delay broadly resulting from them having to melt down 1000 ounce bars to cast them into something smaller. The talk on silverseek seems over dramatic to me but I would welcome other's opinion on this. At the moment I am inclined to believe that the WA government is a pretty solid debtor.

matt

Matt, take a read of this article: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schwense...nsen052908.html ... IMO, it provides a good common-sense explanation for the shortages of low-denomination gold/silver at mints.

 

<slight rant alert> Jason Hommel has gone way OTT on the topic in my view and the argument put forward by Troy Schwensen makes a good deal of sense to me. I'm not sure what you guys think but I really don't rate Mr Hommel with his sensationalist approach and biblical references. NOI to any religeous folks on this board - each to their own - but I'm not religeous and I want to base my investment decisions on facts, not on prophecy and potentially twisted interpretation of biblical texts. When Hommel states "I've read the Bible, and studied it diligently, and I try to apply its wisdom" it really reduces any confidence I'd otherwise have in his writing. </slight rant alert>

 

Why are there delivery delays to customers?

 

The accusations in relation to the above issue are primarily silver related. When it comes to Mints, silver is generally transferred in 1,000 oz bars. These bars weigh 32 kg and are not all that popular as far as private investors are concerned. Therefore, when private investors request silver in smaller bars these need to be fabricated via the refinery. The refinery, as a business, is primarily concerned with processing the vast amounts of metal they receive from producing companies. Whilst they are happy to mint these smaller denomination bars, it may not be all that high on their priority list depending on their workload. This can lead to delays in fabrication which, while understandably frustrating for the customers, does not necessarily imply a worldwide shortage of silver. This fact is well supported by GFMS who are the foremost forecasters of silver demand and supply fundamentals.

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wrt to the comments on the perth mint - some people have apparently complained about delays of delivery of unallocated metal. There is some discussion on topic here http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1211570804.php and Peter Schiff addressed the issue during his radio broadcast this week. I am invested with Perth mint certificates and inclined to believe their explanation, that this is a production (as in fabrication) delay broadly resulting from them having to melt down 1000 ounce bars to cast them into something smaller. The talk on silverseek seems over dramatic to me but I would welcome other's opinion on this. At the moment I am inclined to believe that the WA government is a pretty solid debtor.

matt

 

Be careful there is a lot of evidence around that they may not have the amount of Gold/Silver they claim. Check Jason Hommel's investigation into Perth Mint - http://www.silverstockreport.com/2008/perth5.html.

 

Also here's a recent warning from Jim Sinclair

 

Posted On: Friday, June 06, 2008, 6:30:00 PM EST

 

A Note For Those Holding Gold In The Land Down Under

 

 

Author: Jim Sinclair

 

 

 

Dear Friends,

 

Those of you that hold gold bullion in the land Down Under should check up on it.

 

Respectfully yours,

Jim

 

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I just found this open letter to Henry Paulson regarding minting of Silver coins. Mildly interesting. But if you really want to waste some time reading some wacky stuff, take a browse around the rest of the David Icke forum. There's some seriously screwed up people in this world! :unsure::blink::lol:

 

(just noticed the article is taken from Silver Seek ... but the Icke forum is more amusing)

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I am no expert but enrieb's explanation that it could be a replica for jewellery (and therefore is marked with "J21", whatever that means) makes sense. It's still gold. HOWEVER, selling the coin as a Sovereign (incl. premium) still makes it fraud when done knowingly.

 

These were specials done for boxes of coins with running dates, they were stamped and not cast. They are not that old either, 80's I think but I cannot remember which private company minted them but I do not think that they were European. I remember the sales blurb about them being made from gold of a comparative value, no intent to defraud, obviously marked, nearly the same scrap price, etc

 

Fake coins are pretty easy to spot even if you have not held one before, to save on typing

 

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=75558

 

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